MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[lmitzel]

A

Also with, surprisingly to many, losses in their two most recent games, North Park likely played themselves out of contention for the National Tournament, save winning the Conference Tourney.

A win at IWU would definitely push them to the bubble, but history isn't great on 9 loss teams making the Tournament.  North Park probably played too tough of a nonconference schedule taking 4 losses there - albeit against good teams and getting a win over Top 50 Anderson.

They're currently sitting at 14-8. Even if they run the table in their remaining regular season games, and win two more in the Conference Tournament, that would make them 19-8. IWU finished with that record last season and wasn't invited to the Big Dance. And a loss in the Tournament Championship game would result in a final record of 19-9 almost assuredly removing any possibility of dancing. All signs point to the necessity of winning the CCIW Tourney or watching rather than playing in the National.

North Park current sits 52nd in NPI, and is 5 spots beyond the cut line for Pool C (though that's obviously without the inevitable bid thieves that will lengthen that list considerably.) Their remaining regular season games are against #256, #116, and #11. Even if you grant them those two extra wins (let's say as a hypothetical, against #74 and #11 again), yeah, I get the feeling it won't be enough.

[lmitzel]

Still no word on movement of the Carthage @ NCC, Wheaton @ Millikin, or Elmhurst @ Augie games. The visitors might be able to get to their respective destinations OK but, in light of the projected forecast, getting home again might be a matter of life and death. Of course, there are a multitude of hotel rooms in Naperville, Decatur (poor Wheaton), and Rock Island.

I hadn't been looking super close at snow forecasts until yesterday. For Naperville at least, the initial talk of 3-5 inches during the day and another 1-3 at night are down to 1-3 during the day and less than an inch Wednesday night. I haven't really looked beyond that to see how stuff closer to the state line is supposed to be and what Carthage's travel path is going to look like.

I also don't know how a postponement for NCC would work; they'd either have to shift the men's volleyball match to accommodate or try a different day. Part of me wonders if we'd have a throwback to the COVID season and play on Monday in a pinch.

[GusD]

Poor IWU must be feeling left out. The mighty Titans neither have a chance to play in the snow, nor go for their 3rd consecutive loss. 

[GusD]

Still no word on movement of the Carthage @ NCC, Wheaton @ Millikin, or Elmhurst @ Augie games. The visitors might be able to get to their respective destinations OK but, in light of the projected forecast, getting home again might be a matter of life and death. Of course, there are a multitude of hotel rooms in Naperville, Decatur (poor Wheaton), and Rock Island.

I hadn't been looking super close at snow forecasts until yesterday. For Naperville at least, the initial talk of 3-5 inches during the day and another 1-3 at night are down to 1-3 during the day and less than an inch Wednesday night. I haven't really looked beyond that to see how stuff closer to the state line is supposed to be and what Carthage's travel path is going to look like.

I also don't know how a postponement for NCC would work; they'd either have to shift the men's volleyball match to accommodate or try a different day. Part of me wonders if we'd have a throwback to the COVID season and play on Monday in a pinch.

I think the weather/ travel problem centers on the fact that there will likely be blowing and drifting snow across the Interstates the visitors will be taking to reach their respective destinations.

[GusD]

Decision time today regarding the possible rescheduling of tomorrow's games is 4:00.

[bopol]

A

Also with, surprisingly to many, losses in their two most recent games, North Park likely played themselves out of contention for the National Tournament, save winning the Conference Tourney.

A win at IWU would definitely push them to the bubble, but history isn't great on 9 loss teams making the Tournament.  North Park probably played too tough of a nonconference schedule taking 4 losses there - albeit against good teams and getting a win over Top 50 Anderson.

They're currently sitting at 14-8. Even if they run the table in their remaining regular season games, and win two more in the Conference Tournament, that would make them 19-8. IWU finished with that record last season and wasn't invited to the Big Dance. And a loss in the Tournament Championship game would result in a final record of 19-9 almost assuredly removing any possibility of dancing. All signs point to the necessity of winning the CCIW Tourney or watching rather than playing in the National.

North Park current sits 52nd in NPI, and is 5 spots beyond the cut line for Pool C (though that's obviously without the inevitable bid thieves that will lengthen that list considerably.) Their remaining regular season games are against #256, #116, and #11. Even if you grant them those two extra wins (let's say as a hypothetical, against #74 and #11 again), yeah, I get the feeling it won't be enough.

The size of the bump Carthage got by beating IWU was surprising.  That's why I think they could be on the bubble before it's done.  But they have to win 5 in a row to get there.

[Gregory Sager]

A

Also with, surprisingly to many, losses in their two most recent games, North Park likely played themselves out of contention for the National Tournament, save winning the Conference Tourney.

A win at IWU would definitely push them to the bubble, but history isn't great on 9 loss teams making the Tournament.  North Park probably played too tough of a nonconference schedule taking 4 losses there - albeit against good teams and getting a win over Top 50 Anderson.

They're currently sitting at 14-8. Even if they run the table in their remaining regular season games, and win two more in the Conference Tournament, that would make them 19-8. IWU finished with that record last season and wasn't invited to the Big Dance. And a loss in the Tournament Championship game would result in a final record of 19-9 almost assuredly removing any possibility of dancing. All signs point to the necessity of winning the CCIW Tourney or watching rather than playing in the National.

North Park current sits 52nd in NPI, and is 5 spots beyond the cut line for Pool C (though that's obviously without the inevitable bid thieves that will lengthen that list considerably.) Their remaining regular season games are against #256, #116, and #11. Even if you grant them those two extra wins (let's say as a hypothetical, against #74 and #11 again), yeah, I get the feeling it won't be enough.

The size of the bump Carthage got by beating IWU was surprising.  That's why I think they could be on the bubble before it's done.  But they have to win 5 in a row to get there.

Mathematically, it can't happen, strictly as a function of schedule and standings.

North Park has only three regular-season games remaining: home against Carroll this evening, home against Elmhurst on Saturday, and at Illinois Wesleyan a week from tomorrow. The Vikings then take their second-round-robin bye a week from Saturday, the last day of the regular season.

If the Vikings win all three of those games, it would put them at 12-4 to finish conference play. It would also push Illinois Wesleyan down to, at best, 12-4, because NPU winning out means that the Titans take their fourth CCIW loss. And in that scenario, North Park takes the #2 seed over Illinois Wesleyan. That's because, since NPU and IWU will have split their season series, the next tiebreaker is the descending ladder. The ladder starts by comparing how they did against the highest finisher among the other seven teams.

And that will be Carthage. Even if the Firebirds lose their last four and finish tied for third with either Augustana or Elmhurst at 10-6 (it can't be both, since those two 6-6 teams play each other tomorrow night), Carthage owns the tiebreakers against both the Rock Islanders and the Bainesians. So, regardless of what happens over the next two weeks, Carthage will be among the top three teams in the CCIW -- and it will thus be the Firebirds who determine who would get the higher seed between NPU and IWU if those two teams finish in a tie and have a head-to-head split.

As we all know, North Park swept Carthage, while Carthage swept Illinois Wesleyan. That means that, if NPU wins out, it gets a bye, regardless of what Carthage does or what IWU does in the two non-NPU games the Titans have remaining. The far likelier finish is Carthage winning the league and forcing NPU to settle for #2, but whether it's that or the longshot of NPU winning the league, the result is still the same: North Park gets a bye and thus plays only one tourney game in the lead-up to losing the CCIW tourney final that would force the Vikings to depend on a Pool C bid.

3 regular-season wins + a CCIW tourney quarterfinal bye + a CCIW tourney semifinal win + a CCIW tourney championship loss = four more wins, not five

The only way that North Park can win five more games between now and Selection Monday is if the Vikings win the CCIW tourney, which would make this entire discussion moot.

[lmitzel]

Decision time today regarding the possible rescheduling of tomorrow's games is 4:00.

Following up on this:

Augie-Elmhurst is now a Thursday game. Have not seen anything yet about the other two games.

[bopol]

A

Also with, surprisingly to many, losses in their two most recent games, North Park likely played themselves out of contention for the National Tournament, save winning the Conference Tourney.

A win at IWU would definitely push them to the bubble, but history isn't great on 9 loss teams making the Tournament.  North Park probably played too tough of a nonconference schedule taking 4 losses there - albeit against good teams and getting a win over Top 50 Anderson.

They're currently sitting at 14-8. Even if they run the table in their remaining regular season games, and win two more in the Conference Tournament, that would make them 19-8. IWU finished with that record last season and wasn't invited to the Big Dance. And a loss in the Tournament Championship game would result in a final record of 19-9 almost assuredly removing any possibility of dancing. All signs point to the necessity of winning the CCIW Tourney or watching rather than playing in the National.

North Park current sits 52nd in NPI, and is 5 spots beyond the cut line for Pool C (though that's obviously without the inevitable bid thieves that will lengthen that list considerably.) Their remaining regular season games are against #256, #116, and #11. Even if you grant them those two extra wins (let's say as a hypothetical, against #74 and #11 again), yeah, I get the feeling it won't be enough.

The size of the bump Carthage got by beating IWU was surprising.  That's why I think they could be on the bubble before it's done.  But they have to win 5 in a row to get there.

Mathematically, it can't happen, strictly as a function of schedule and standings.

North Park has only three regular-season games remaining: home against Carroll this evening, home against Elmhurst on Saturday, and at Illinois Wesleyan a week from tomorrow. The Vikings then take their second-round-robin bye a week from Saturday, the last day of the regular season.

If the Vikings win all three of those games, it would put them at 12-4 to finish conference play. It would also push Illinois Wesleyan down to, at best, 12-4, because NPU winning out means that the Titans take their fourth CCIW loss. And in that scenario, North Park takes the #2 seed over Illinois Wesleyan. That's because, since NPU and IWU will have split their season series, the next tiebreaker is the descending ladder. The ladder starts by comparing how they did against the highest finisher among the other seven teams.

And that will be Carthage. Even if the Firebirds lose their last four and finish tied for third with either Augustana or Elmhurst at 10-6 (it can't be both, since those two 6-6 teams play each other tomorrow night), Carthage owns the tiebreakers against both the Rock Islanders and the Bainesians. So, regardless of what happens over the next two weeks, Carthage will be among the top three teams in the CCIW -- and it will thus be the Firebirds who determine who would get the higher seed between NPU and IWU if those two teams finish in a tie and have a head-to-head split.

As we all know, North Park swept Carthage, while Carthage swept Illinois Wesleyan. That means that, if NPU wins out, it gets a bye, regardless of what Carthage does or what IWU does in the two non-NPU games the Titans have remaining. The far likelier finish is Carthage winning the league and forcing NPU to settle for #2, but whether it's that or the longshot of NPU winning the league, the result is still the same: North Park gets a bye and thus plays only one tourney game in the lead-up to losing the CCIW tourney final that would force the Vikings to depend on a Pool C bid.

3 regular-season wins + a CCIW tourney quarterfinal bye + a CCIW tourney semifinal win + a CCIW tourney championship loss = four more wins, not five

The only way that North Park can win five more games between now and Selection Monday is if the Vikings win the CCIW tourney, which would make this entire discussion moot.

Ah, you're right.  But two wins against IWU would be a nice boost.  Of course, the more IWU loses, the less those wins are worth, sooo...yeah, really unlikely.  That Wheaton loss is a killer.

[GusD]

Decision time today regarding the possible rescheduling of tomorrow's games is 4:00.

Following up on this:

Augie-Elmhurst is now a Thursday game. Have not seen anything yet about the other two games.

According to the Athletics Dept offices at NCC and Millikin the decision has been made that both their games, vs Carthage and Wheaton respectively, are still on for tomorrow (Wed) night @ 7:00!

Elmhurst @ Augie moved to Thursday @ 7.

[GusD]

FINAL

Carroll    90
North Park 84

Third loss in a row for NPU who very recently entertained dreams of a possible CCIW championship.
Of note, the losses have been to the 6th, 8th, and 9th (last) place teams in the conference.

I'm sure a detailed analysis with soon be forthcoming from Mr. Sager.

[Gregory Sager]

Carroll 90
North Park 84

Kobe Simpson: 18 pts (3-4 trey, 5:2 a:to)
Erik Victorson: 17 pts (5-11 trey)
Aaron Wafford: 15 pts, 4:1 a:to
Jacob Naber: 14 pts, 7 rebs
Kylo Simpson: 10 pts

Lance Nelson: 20 pts, 7 rebs, 5:2 a:to
TJ Gardner: 15 pts, 3 stls
William Bates: 15 pts

The Vikings are in free fall. For the third game in a row the played an opponent that had more energy, more enthusiasm, and more execution than they did. The Vikings did erase a 14-point deficit in the last ten minutes to tie the game at 79-79, but they faded in crunch time while Carroll finished like the Pios were the (now former) contenders and the Vikings were the team in last place.

NPU has two more chances to right the longship, because if they go into the CCIW tourney looking like this the Vikings will be one-and-done and this once-promising season will come to an abrupt end.

[Greek Tragedy]

Today's NPI shows NPU dropping just one spot to 53 and sits at Pool C #27. I'm not an expert on NPI and never played one on TV, but I'm surprised they didn't drop further down after losing to Carroll at home.

[WashingtonWiz99]

Carroll has had some tough (close) losses. Good win for Pios.

[ziggy]

Today's NPI shows NPU dropping just one spot to 53 and sits at Pool C #27. I'm not an expert on NPI and never played one on TV, but I'm surprised they didn't drop further down after losing to Carroll at home.

The game being moved up from Wednesday to Tuesday wasn't picked up in our score reporting source so it actually wasn't included in this morning's run. Matt was able to input the result manually and rerun the numbers. NPU is now #64 and Pool C #37.