MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[AndOne]

TQ---

I was not referring to any specific post. I had noticed Augie's last 4 opponents and knew their records weren't so good. However, I thought that to get an accurate picture, I should review all of their opponents records, not just the last 4. After I did that for Augie, I thought it would be interesting to do the same thing for Elmhurst and Wheaton. I remembered at least one person had prev commented about how the rankings at this relatively early point in the season were comprised of a lot history and future assumptions rather than more strongly considering opponents records to date. I just thought a more detailed written analysis might be interesting. I did not page back looking for any specific post(s) prior to my writeup.

[AndOne]

Dan---

You posed 3 questions/points---

1. I feel that congrats are in order for the teams mentioned because they, at least, did what they were supposed to do/had to do in order to position themselves for the high rankings they now enjoy. I feel one of the earmarks of any good team in any sport is that the team wins the games that they are "supposed" to. Secondly, its logical to be proud of an 10-0, 9-1, or 8-2 record. When someone asks "how have you done so far," they're most often going to formulate their opinion of the quality of your team based on what you report your record is rather than a deeper analysis of who you have played.

2. Don't know if I hit a wrong key on the calculator or looked at the wrong scribbling on the sheet of scratch paper covered with lots of numbers that I had in front of me, but you are indeed correct that Augie's opponents winning percentage to date is .405, not .329. Thanks for the correction.

3. JMHO, but I do NOT necessarily believe that a team can be classified as "outstanding" or "premier" based solely or mainly on how deeply into the playoffs they might advance. While a team may advance deep into the playoffs because its a premier team, often times such an advancement is due more to a team getting hot at the right time, or some other issue like an injury to an important member of the other team, etc. Lastly, you asked about IWU in 05-06, but my post dealt solely with this year's top 3 CCIW teams to date, and their possible results/rankings as this season goes forward.     

[Mr. Ypsi]

AndOne, when calculating opponents' records, you ought to remove the games they played against the team(s) you are referencing (otherwise you make bad teams look better and good teams look worse).  The Augie, Elmhurst, and Wheaton opponents' records of 142-183 (43.7%) would have been 139-158 (46.8%) if they had not played those presumed powers - not a huge difference, but a significant one.  Likewise, that 7-4 record that Wheaton's best opponent (Hope) had would be 7-3 (or 7-2, if they had not also played Carthage!).  Part of the reason the CCIW competition looks weak is they've got so danged many losses against the CCIW!   (Another factor is that some traditional powers seem down this year, for which you can hardly blame the CCIW schedulers - Hope and Calvin, for example, do not seem to be their usual top-25 caliber selves, and Hanover is certainly not the team of just a couple of years ago - and who could have foreseen the total collapse of Chicago.)

[Gregory Sager]

While the CCIW as a whole s/b congratulated and proud of its non-conference record to this point, further analysis suggests it may have been achieved against some less than stellar competition. Some of this, no doubt, is due to the conference coaches artful scheduling against historically weaker opponents.

"Artful scheduling against historically weaker opponents"? You're overthinking this a bit.

* Augie's schedule never changes much. It's as inevitable as barge traffic on the Mississippi, or Grey Giovanine wearing a turtleneck. Every year Augie plays several games against IIAC schools, a showdown with cross-river rival St. Ambrose, a game against Beloit that reflects the Cecil Youngblood connection between the two schools, and a few stray games against western Illinois D3 competition (MacMurray, Monmouth, Knox, Eureka, Rockford, etc.). What you won't find is a snowbird trip to California, Texas, or Florida -- Augie doesn't take 'em. There is very little deviation from one year to the next in how Augie schedules. In fact, if there is any deviation at all to be seen in this year's Augie schedule, it's that it appears to be designed to be stronger than usual, not weaker. F'rinstance, for the first time in several years the Doggies are only playing two games against the weak sister IIAC rather than the usual three. And Grey Giovanine has fit in two games against WIAC teams and two games against the UAA's two traditional midwestern powerhouses, Chicago being a brand-new addition to the schedule that Giovanine has sought for years. That's hardly the sign of "artful scheduling against historically weaker opponents." In fact, it indicates the exact opposite.

* Wheaton is locked into two games per year against teams that are almost always among the creme de la creme of D3: Hope and Calvin. Note that I said "almost always." The two MIAA powers are decidedly down this year. Is that Wheaton's fault? Wheaton has an ongoing series with traditional UAA bully Chicago that found the Sonic Atmospheric Disturbance traveling to the South Side to face a Chicago team that has somehow forgotten how to win ballgames. Is that Wheaton's fault? Bill Harris also put his team in a tournament at Wittenberg, the school that has more D3 tournament wins and D3 Final Four appearances than any other school and which has appeared in the Final Four as recently as 2006. However, the Tigers find themselves in the throes of a down cycle almost unprecedented since the days of the leather knee pad and the two-handed set shot. Is that Wheaton's fault? Wheaton also had games with the IIAC's rising star, Loras, the IIAC's traditional non-BVU power, Wartburg, and invited a WIAC team (UWEC) and a 2008 D3 tourney team (Ohio Wesleyan) to its Pfund tourney. Look, Bill Harris has put together his share of namby-pamby schedules in the past. But on the face of it coming into this season, this looked like one of the strongest, most cupcake-free schedules he'd ever concocted. Again, your charge of "artfully scheduling against historically weaker opponents" doesn't stick.

* Elmhurst's scheduling is usually all over the map in terms of who and where the Bluejays play. There's usually a couple or three games against good teams salted amongst a whole plateful of D3 odds and ends. But it can be argued that Mark Scherer has certainly tried a little harder than usual to give his boys in baby blue a good prepping for January and February. Last year he had one WIAC team on the sked; this year he has two. Last year he had one showcase game against a non-WIAC national power, Hope. This year he's actually upgraded that by replacing Hope with Washington (MO). Aurora, an annual opponent, is usually a tough win that happens to be down this year. I don't see anything out of the usual for Elmhurst's schedule that would indicate "artfully scheduling against historically weaker opponents."

Every year, a large percentage of the CCIW non-conference schedule consists of the same-old, same-old. You know that without fail at least two or three CCIW teams will play Aurora, and that two or three will play Benedictine; that Augie will play St. Ambrose and a bunch of Hawkeye State D3ers; Illinois Wesleyan will play Olivet Nazarene and the two UAA schools; Wheaton and Carthage will be in the CCIW/MIAA Classic; Wheaton will play Chicago; NPU will play Loras (Paul Brenegan's alma mater); Millikin will fit in a bunch of games against downstate SLIAC teams, etc. Much of the CCIW's non-conference slate is derived from either longstanding contracts linked to personal ties (e.g., Augie vs. Beloit and NPU vs. Loras) or established rivalries. And many of the CCIW's non-conference games besides those are a function of geography and/or (with a few notable exceptions among CCIW coaches) a desire to conform to established D3 guidelines for scheduling games against regional D3 opponents. Outside of the local environs, many of the CCIW schools take snowbird trips to sunny SoCal that involve SCIAC teams (e.g., Carthage this season), or which consist of tournaments that by their very nature mean that the CCIW teams take potluck in terms of who they play. That goes for midwestern-based tournaments as well, such as the one in which NPU participated at Trine, the one in which Wheaton participated at Wittenberg, and the one in which NCC participated at Otterbein.

It doesn't appear to me that your hypothesis of the CCIW coaches scheduling "down" in order to boost their respective W-L records holds water. Rather, if you really want a good explanation for the CCIW's freakishly good non-conference performance to date, chalk it up to these three factors:

1) The CCIW is simply top-to-bottom good this year. Most seasons there's a laggard or two (or three) that goes 7-4, 6-5, or 5-6 (or even worse if the CCIW team is egregiously bad) outside of our circuit. Non-con records like those almost always indicate a team that's destined to finish in seventh or eighth place in the league. This season, however, all eight teams will almost certainly finish 8-3 or better; the odds of Illinois College beating Illinois Wesleyan in the Shirk Center on Saturday, or of Trinity International beating Carthage in the Tarble Arena unveiling on Monday, dropping either IWU or Carthage to 7-4 in non-con play, are highly unlikely.

2) The cannon fodder appears to be a little less sturdy under fire than usual. The five less-powerful local D3 leagues -- HCAC, IIAC, MWC, NAthCon, and SLIAC -- usually make up about half of the CCIW non-con sked. Here's how the CCIW has fared against those five leagues this season (with four games remaining: Elmhurst @ Anderson, Illinois College @ IWU, Wheaton @ Grinnell, and Millikin @ Knox) compared to recent seasons:

season	CCIW	other 5	CCIW W-L pct
2008-09 (to date)	37	1	.974
2007-08	33	9	.786
2006-07	30	9	.769
2005-06	28	14	.667
2004-05	26	16	.619
2003-04	28	13	.683
2002-03	28	13	.683
2001-02	28	12	.700
2000-01	31	8	.795
1999-00	28	9	.757

(These totals do not include post-season contests.)

Note that the number of games that the CCIW has played against these five leagues has remained fairly constant over the past decade, averaging about forty a year. That makes it an excellent benchmark in terms of examining the relative strength of the CCIW vis-a-vis the local D3 competition.

3) Several of the traditionally-tough opponents of CCIW teams are experiencing down years (or at least relatively poor non-conference performances). Included in that list are Hope, Calvin, Chicago, Aurora, Loras, and Franklin, who between them have accumulated an 0-14 record against the CCIW. Most years, that sextet would be batting around .500 against CCIW teams.

While there is every reason to suspect and expect these 3 teams will occupy the top 3 rungs on the CCIW ladder when all is said and done, there is also the very real possibility that any of them can be knocked off by not only each other, but by the 5 other conference teams as well, on any given night. If any team manages to win the conference portion of the schedule by 2-3 games, then that team will most assuredly be one of the premier teams in the nation.

Agreed, and very well said.

[Naperick]

What is USCAA?

http://www.theuscaa.com/landing/index

Thanks for the link!  60 schools in 24 states.  Not sure if that association will last but I wish them luck.

[Gregory Sager]

What is USCAA?

http://www.theuscaa.com/landing/index

Thanks for the link!  60 schools in 24 states.  Not sure if that association will last but I wish them luck.

It's been around for a long time, so I doubt it's going under anytime soon. I believe it used to be called the National Small College Athletic Association.

[Naperick]

I have read posts from the last few days and they are awesome!  I have really enjoyed the posts on strength of schedule and how strong the CCIW is this season. 

Thanks to all who contribute.  The CCIW chat thread is always a good read.

Best wishes to all CCIW schools this season as conference play begins.  I hope no injuries occur and that 3 schools qualify for the D3 tourney.  This could be a year where everyone beats each other up so much that only two will make it.  I wouldn't be surprised if the last place team has 5 conference wins this year.

I will get to Faganal to watch my Bluejays as much as I can this year.  I know I will get to Merner fieldhouse a lot because the "hanger" is only about 3 miles from where I live.  I hope to see every school play at least once.

The conference season is about to begin!  It should be great!

[Titans_Baller]

anybody got a status on a JV game tommorow night for the titans?!

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYBODY!!

[Mr. Ypsi]

I have read posts from the last few days and they are awesome!  I have really enjoyed the posts on strength of schedule and how strong the CCIW is this season. 

Thanks to all who contribute.  The CCIW chat thread is always a good read.

Best wishes to all CCIW schools this season as conference play begins.  I hope no injuries occur and that 3 schools qualify for the D3 tourney.  This could be a year where everyone beats each other up so much that only two will make it.  I wouldn't be surprised if the last place team has 5 conference wins this year.

I will get to Faganal to watch my Bluejays as much as I can this year.  I know I will get to Merner fieldhouse a lot because the "hanger" is only about 3 miles from where I live.  I hope to see every school play at least once.

The conference season is about to begin!  It should be great!

While that would be a stretch (in the 62 year history of the conference, 1984 was the only year with 5 wins for the last place teams - and they played 16 games that year), there's a part of me that says the last place team may have seven wins (i.e., an eight-way tie at 7-7)!

I think it is probably safe to say that the CCIW has never had this depth - while someone will inevitably bring up the rear, there just aren't any (deservedly) 8th place teams.  Time will tell whether there are any Final Four-quality teams this year, but I'm reasonably certain that everyone is in the top one hundred (with only the possible exception of NPU if they can't stay eligible and healthy).

[Titan Q]

IWU has lost leading scorer Sean Johnson (6-1 SG) for a game or two due to a sprained ankle.  Sean is averaging 13.2 points per game and is IWU's top 3-point threat - 23-54 (.426) on the season.

http://www.pantagraph.com/articles/2009/01/03/usports/doc495ed1354f21e482006672.txt

Hopefully he can get himself back for the CCIW opener Wednesday.  He was good vs the Thunder as a freshman:

2/29 (conf tourn.) - 16 pts
2/16 (@ WC) -16 pts
1/23 (@ IWU) - 15 pts


"I just came down on it wrong on the side of my foot and rolled over it," Johnson said, with the ailing ankle dipped in a whirlpool Friday. "I've got to do my best to take good care of it and be smart so I can be ready for Wheaton."

Ranked 16th nationally, IWU plays at Wheaton on Wednesday. The Thunder are ranked second and could ascend to No. 1 before the Titans visit King Arena.

"It's the same ankle he sprained earlier in the year. It kept him out four or five days, and it's a little worse than that this time," Rose said. "We'll do what we can to get it ready for Wheaton."

[Titan Q]

IWU (7-3) hosts CCIW charter member Illinois College (3-3) tonight at the Shirk Center.  The Blueboys' results on the season are:

@ Blackburn, W, 86-49
vs Earlham, W, 69-54
vs Benedictine, W, 84-80
@ North Park, L, 66-69
@ Carroll, L, 75-80
@ Lawrence, L, 64-84

They start:

G Jacob Tucker (5-11/185, So. - Carlyle, IL) - 10.2 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 1.3 apg
G Mark Gillingham (6-0/185, Sr. - Carrollton, IL) - 8.0 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 0.8 apg
G Brad Johnson (6-2/185, Sr. - Waverly, IL) - 13.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg
F David Stewart (6-4/205, Jr. - Decatur, IL) - 12.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.7 apg
F Mitchell Neally (6-5/210, Sr. - Carthage, IL) - 7.7 ppg, 2.8 rpg

For the Titans, Sean Dwyer will replace Sean Johnson...

G Travis Rosenkranz (6-0/175, So. - Macon Meridian H.S.) - 11.7 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 4.5 apg
G Sean Dwyer (5-10/175, Jr. - Hersey H.S.) - 4.9 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 3.3 apg
F John Koschnitzky (6-6/195, Fr - Oak Forest H.S.) - 8.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg
F Doug Sexauer (6-7/225, So. - Lockport H.S.) - 12.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg
C Brett Chamernik (6-5/225, Sr. - Benet Academy) - 9.4 ppg, 4.0 rpg

I assume freshman Eliud Gonzalez, IWU's starting JV point-guard, will see time tonight with normal backup PG Dwyer in the starting lineup.

[Titan Q]

A couples days ago I posted a list of the CCIW's scoring by position...

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4592.16920

Here is a list of the top scorers off the bench (reserves averaging 4.0 per game +):


Perimeter
1. Brett Wessels, 6-3 (Augustana, Sr.) - 11.6 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 2.7 apg, 36-81 FG (.444)
2. Charles Warren, 6-2 (Millikin, Jr.) - 8.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 27-46 FG (.587)
3. Mike Avallone, 6-4 (Augustana, So.) - 7.9 ppg, 16-29 3-pt (.552)
4. Jordan Zimmer, 6-5 (IWU, Fr.) - 6.7 ppg, 16-33 3-pt (.485)
5. Lewis Wilson, 6-4 (North Park, So.) - 5.6 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 1.3 apg, 17-37 FG (.459)
6. Andrew Jahns, 6-2 (Wheaton, So.) - 5.5 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 1.6 apg
7. Max Cary, 6-3 (Carthage, Fr.) - 5.3 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 8-21 3-pt (.381)
8. Mike McCurdy, 5-10 (Elmhurst, Fr.) - 5.3 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.7 A:TO
9. Jeremy Pflederer, 6-0 (Wheaton, Fr.) - 5.3 ppg, 10-17 3-pt (.588)
10. Chris Childs, 6-2 (Elmhurst, Jr.) - 5.1 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 1.6 apg
11. Devin Demby, 6-2 (Millikin, Jr.) - 4.9 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 14-21 FG (.667)
12. Sean Dwyer, 5-10 (IWU, Jr.) - 4.9 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 3.3 apg, 2.4 A:TO
13. Justin Thompson, 6-2 (Millikin, So.) - 4.4 ppg, 11-23 FG (.478)
14. D.J. Cooper, 6-0 (North Park, Fr.) - 4.3 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 6-20 3-pt (.300)
15. Dominique King, 6-2 (North Central, Sr.) - 4.1 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 16-37 FG (.432)

Post
1. Matt Rogers, 6-5 (North Central, Sr.) - 11.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 41-79 FG (.519)
2. Adam Stuart, 6-4 (Carthage, Sr.) - 6.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 26-59 FG (.441)
3. Edmond O'Callaghan, 6-6 (IWU, So) - 6.3 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 26-42 FG (.619)
4. Kyle Nelson, 6-7 (Augustana, So.) - 5.9 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 17-31 FG (.548)
5. Duncan Lawson, 6-7 (IWU, So.) - 5.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 13-31 FG (.419)
6. Bryant Voiles, 6-8 (Augustana, So.) - 4.1 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 14-31 FG (.452)


Let me know if I've missed anyone.

[April]

hehe...

The Wheaton announcer is so funny as he can't help but be genuinely surprised sounding at Grinnell and how they play (not to mention trying to keep up with substitutions). 

http://www.wetn.org for those wanting to listen in.

[Gregory Sager]

wheaton 61
grinnell 59

half

For the sake of those who are unable to receive the WETN audio transmission, please put the game updates in the CCIW updates room rather than here. Thanks!

[Gregory Sager]

This just in from the Mary Washington sports website:

North Central 70
Mary Washington 61

so when you post the scores here Sager, it's ok as long as no one else does it, right?

That NCC/MWU tally was a final score, wheaton04, not an in-game score.

Chill out. It was just a simple request.