MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Mr. Ypsi]

Mention has been made that Carthage had no one who could match up with Wiele.  Elmhurst has Ruch.  Here's where my long-distance, never see them in person situation really becomes a handicap: how do Ruch and Wiele match up in terms of either controlling the other?

[usee]

Jbird,

I appreciate the purity of your explanation from the Wheaton/Carthage game. But if Wheaton and Carthage played at King arena tomorrow night with a healthy Kent Raymond, who would you pick to win? While I don't think you can say Wheaton definitely wins Wed w Raymond, I think its about as close to a guaranteed bet as you can get.

I don't think that is true if/when they play up in Kenosha.

[Viking Mike]

Dansand,

I agree with you.  The Vikings have not always looked like a well oiled offensive machine, but they always seem to bring their "A" game on defense.  Wednesday's game is a good example.  It was an ugly game to "listen to", but the Vikes like all good teams, were able to overcome their poor shooting and win.  26 of 27 conference wins at home is pretty impressive over the last few years!

I am looking forward to tomorrow night's game at the Carver Center.  I think we should see the biggest crowd of the year!!!  I am concerned about the possibility of not having Bertrand available for the game.  We really need his inside presence and athleticism for some easy scores.  (as well as rebounding.)  With the Titan's line of 6'7, 6'6' and 6'5, rebounding will be HUGE for the Vikes.  Hopefully the Vikings can find their shooting range and open things upside for some easy scores.  It's obvious that teams are packing it inside and forcing Augie to hit some shots.  I think we can force some turnovers against them with our press.  Our depth may also be huge down the wire.

Dansand---any word on whether Justin will be able to give it a go?  Any insight as to what you expect to see tomorrow?
We listen to you all the time on the internet and you guys are great!!!   Thanks for bringing Augie basketball to us alumni in the Chicago area!

Any talk of covering Augie Football as well in the future???

[augiefan]

I certainly concur with Viking Mike on the radio feed for the Augie games. Great to have that available. I have watched a few MWC games on the Penn Atlantic feed, which is now free. The picture quality is real good.I would love to see the CCIW set up a video feed like that for our conference games.

Is there anything like that in the works? Even a small fee would be fine with me, if it means getting the Augie home games here in Chicago land.

[Titan Q]

The Pantagraph's preview of the IWU @ Augustana game...

http://www.pantagraph.com/articles/2009/01/24/usports/doc497a663e8e1c4324722274.txt

Giovanine called Bertrand doubtful because of a sprained ankle.

"I would be shocked if he played unless there is miracle healing," said Giovanine.


I'm assuming IWU senior center Brett Chamernik (sprained ankle) will not start, but will play off the bench.  So here is how the starters should shake up...

http://www.iwuhoops.com/notes09.htm


Bertrand (10.5 ppg, 5.6 rpg) missing the game would be pretty significant in my estimation.  Where this young IWU team has the biggest trouble matching up with the veteran Vikings is in the areas of 1) physical strength at almost every position, and 2) athleticism in the low post.  Justin Bertrand (along with Collins) is the primary reason for that athleticism mismatch down low on both ends of the floor for the Titans.  If he is out, I do think IWU will be able to more effectively get its talented core of big guys (6-7 Doug Sexauer, 6-6 John Koschnitzky, 6-5 Brett Chamernik, 6-6 Edmond O'Callaghan) involved offensively, as well as getting them to the boards.

What I am obviously most concerned about is the simple fact that IWU is going to start all sophomores and freshmen vs this upperclass-dominated, been-through-the-CCIW-battles Augustana team.  This young group of Titans has turned it over way too much in CCIW play so far (14 per game).  IWU turned it over 17 times in the 4-point loss @ Wheaton and I think it's fair to say had the Titans taken better care of the ball, they win that game.  I'm very interested to see how they now respond on the road, in a very hostile environment, vs the best defensive team in the league.  The Titans just can't turn it over 15+ times and have a chance to win the game.

For some reason I have a feeling the Titans will play very well tonight and make it tough on the Vikings.  We'll see.

[OurHouse]

I have not read every word posted about last night's game(s).  Regarding IWU/NP, the winner, like Carthage, shot over 60% from inside the arc.  As I mentioned after the Carthage loss, NP lacked a team effort on defense.  Please advise why IWU shot so well.  Were far too many shots uncontested or were the Titans on fire or a combination thereof?

IWU shot 45% from outside the arc.  Same question.

They shot well but you are talking about playing against the worse team in the CCIW (WIDE OPEN shots, not contested) with that being said, they will win tonight at Augustana....

....only if the bigger guys decide to get tough (Bertrand out) and they play defense (they will NOT get wide open shots against this team)

[Titan Q]

I must say, however, that if Greg's assessment of the situation is correct, and this was a disciplinary action, that I applaud the coaching staff for sitting these guys.

I'm actually going off of thirdhand information with regard to that assessment (the NPU coaches told IWU assistant coach Dave Steinbrueck that Russell -- and possibly Cooper, too? -- was disciplined for missing the team bus deadline, Stein passed that on to Q over the phone, and then Q posted it here). I haven't spoken to the NPU coaches yet.

Just FYI, from the Pantagraph on that situation...Paul Brenegan declined to officially comment.

Freshman guard Roshawn Russell, North Park's leading scorer at 15.2 points per game, did not enter the game until the 15:06 mark of the second half but still topped the Vikings with 19 points.

Brenegan gave a "no comment" when asked why Russell did not see action sooner.

http://www.pantagraph.com/articles/2009/01/22/usports/doc49781163ce0ff148367402.txt


Dennie Bridges used to always say that the #1 key to winning is "Getting off the bus with the best players."  I guess that has to start with those players actually getting on the bus.

[usee]

IWU turned it over 17 times in the 4-point loss @ Wheaton and I think it's fair to say had the Titans taken better care of the ball, they win that game.  I'm very interested to see how they now respond on the road, in a very hostile environment, vs the best defensive team in the league. 

Q, I don't think you really want to open that pandora's box of "what ifs" from the Wheaton game do you? What if Wiele played (and wheaton rebounded better), what if wheaton shot better, etc. There are a lot of scenarios I could come up with in which the Thunder win by 10+ from the stats.

Secondly, I am wondering how you define the "best defense in the league"? this is an honest question as I think we all know Augies reputation but after having seen them in person I actually thought IWU was a better defensive team vs Wheaton than Augie. I also think Wheaton has a pretty good defense. So I am wondering what stats or other criteria is a good measure of a team's defense.

[sac]

FG% defense and turnovers/steals are the two indicators I look for, but even that can't tell the whole story like the eyes can.

[dansand]

Secondly, I am wondering how you define the "best defense in the league"? this is an honest question as I think we all know Augies reputation but after having seen them in person I actually thought IWU was a better defensive team vs Wheaton than Augie. I also think Wheaton has a pretty good defense. So I am wondering what stats or other criteria is a good measure of a team's defense.

FG% defense and turnovers/steals are the two indicators I look for, but even that can't tell the whole story like the eyes can.

Although it's not a readily available statistic (but it can be calculated), points-per-possession is really the best single stat you can use to evaluate both offenses and defenses. It removes the effects of game pace that come into play when using points per game. Defensive FG% and turnovers forced are good indicators, but don't begin to grab the big picture like points-per-possession does. If I get a chance, I'll do some figuring to see how everyone in the league stacks up.

Not having Justin Bertrand tonight is troubling. He probably was as good as anyone Augie had last year against Illinois Wesleyan. Here are his overall numbers in 2007-08 and what he did in three games against IWU:

2007-08  GP-GS  Min--Avg  FG-FGA   Pct 3FG-FGA   Pct  FT-FTA   Pct  Off Def  Tot  Avg  PF FO   A  TO Blk Stl  Pts  Avg
vs. IWU   3-0    56 18.7  11-16   .688   0-0    .000   7-9    .778    6  10   16  5.3  11  0   5   6   2   0   29  9.7
Overall  28-0   342 12.2  43-78   .551   0-0    .000  25-43   .581   19  38   57  2.0  48  0  12  32   5   4  111  4.0

Just like some health issues with Dain Swetalla last year provided Justin with a chance, his absence now is an opportunity for Kyle Nelson, Bryant Voiles, and Jeff Becker. Between Kent Raymond and Justin, I've learned more about "high ankle sprains" recently that I care to. One thing's for sure. Augie must shoot it a lot better than they did against Millikin. I thought they got pretty good shots all night, including just about any open three they wanted, and just couldn't get much of anything to fall.

We listen to you all the time on the internet and you guys are great!!!   Thanks for bringing Augie basketball to us alumni in the Chicago area!

Any talk of covering Augie Football as well in the future???

Thanks Mike,

No, we don't have any plans to do football right now, but we have discussed the possibility. A lot of factors involved, some financial, some time-related. As far as Augiefan's question about video, we've discussed that also, but some of the same factors apply.

[Titan Q]

Q, I don't think you really want to open that pandora's box of "what ifs" from the Wheaton game do you? What if Wiele played (and wheaton rebounded better), what if wheaton shot better, etc. There are a lot of scenarios I could come up with in which the Thunder win by 10+ from the stats.

It's just my opinion that based on the players who played that night, had the Titans taken better care of the basketball, they would have won the game.

Points off turnovers:

Wheaton 22
IWU 8

http://athletics.wheaton.edu/custompages/mbball/mbbstats/mwhe12.htm

[Titan Q]

From the Daily Herald, about the CCIW...

http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=266491

[dansand]

Secondly, I am wondering how you define the "best defense in the league"? this is an honest question as I think we all know Augies reputation but after having seen them in person I actually thought IWU was a better defensive team vs Wheaton than Augie. I also think Wheaton has a pretty good defense. So I am wondering what stats or other criteria is a good measure of a team's defense.

FG% defense and turnovers/steals are the two indicators I look for, but even that can't tell the whole story like the eyes can.

Although it's not a readily available statistic (but it can be calculated), points-per-possession is really the best single stat you can use to evaluate both offenses and defenses. It removes the effects of game pace that come into play when using points per game. Defensive FG% and turnovers forced are good indicators, but don't begin to grab the big picture like points-per-possession does. If I get a chance, I'll do some figuring to see how everyone in the league stacks up.

OK. Here are the numbers I come up with (North Parks' stats are only through 14 of 17 games):

                            OFFENSE                                           DEFENSE
Team       Pts    FGA    OR    TO   FTA   Poss   P/100P     OPts  OFGA   OOR   OTO  OFTA  OPoss  OP/100P
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Augie      1233   984   223   227   319   1140   108.2      1045   869   164   290   292   1134    92.2
Carthage   1164   896   144   149   345   1065   109.3      1088   844   162   222   350   1070   101.7
Elmhurst   1232   878   170   220   304   1072   114.9      1111   861   143   196   331   1071   103.7
Ill Wesl   1251   916   146   229   317   1150   108.8      1173   920   159   226   353   1155   101.6
Millikin   1033   838   138   234   285   1069    96.6       993   846   144   233   265   1061    93.6
N. Cntrl   1174   853   147   190   384   1078   108.9      1049   751   126   292   345   1081    97.1
No. Park   1011   758   141   219   278    968   104.4      1063   853   184   189   247    975   109.0
Wheaton    1291   865   140   204   357   1099   117.5      1015   890   162   236   289   1101    92.2

FWIW,
The formula for estimating possessions is:

FGA-Off Reb+TO+(FTAx.475)

The fact that each team's possessions as compared to its opponents' are very close (+/-.5 possessions per game or less) leads me to believe it's pretty accurate.

"P/100P" represents each team's points scored per 100 possessions and "OP/100P" represents their opponents'.

[shepherd]

Q, I don't think you really want to open that pandora's box of "what ifs" from the Wheaton game do you? What if Wiele played (and wheaton rebounded better), what if wheaton shot better, etc. There are a lot of scenarios I could come up with in which the Thunder win by 10+ from the stats.

It's just my opinion that based on the players who played that night, had the Titans taken better care of the basketball, they would have won the game.

Points off turnovers:

Wheaton 22
IWU 8

http://athletics.wheaton.edu/custompages/mbball/mbbstats/mwhe12.htm

I think that's ridiculous.  They weren't dropping the ball like a fumble.  Wheaton had something to do with it.  The second half of that game is the best, fastest basketball I have seen Wheaton play.  My jaw dropped to the floor in amazement at how quick they were moving and how good they were playing.  That is why there is all that chatter about Wheaton, many of us think this is a special team.  I really don't think IWU was going to hamper what happened in the second half.

[Titan Q]

OK. Here are the numbers I come up with (North Parks' stats are only through 14 of 17 games):

                            OFFENSE                                           DEFENSE
Team       Pts    FGA    OR    TO   FTA   Poss   P/100P     OPts  OFGA   OOR   OTO  OFTA  OPoss  OP/100P
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Augie      1233   984   223   227   319   1140   108.2      1045   869   164   290   292   1134    92.2
Carthage   1164   896   144   149   345   1065   109.3      1088   844   162   222   350   1070   101.7
Elmhurst   1232   878   170   220   304   1072   114.9      1111   861   143   196   331   1071   103.7
Ill Wesl   1251   916   146   229   317   1150   108.8      1173   920   159   226   353   1155   101.6
Millikin   1033   838   138   234   285   1069    96.6       993   846   144   233   265   1061    93.6
N. Cntrl   1174   853   147   190   384   1078   108.9      1049   751   126   292   345   1081    97.1
No. Park   1011   758   141   219   278    968   104.4      1063   853   184   189   247    975   109.0
Wheaton    1291   865   140   204   357   1099   117.5      1015   890   162   236   289   1101    92.2

FWIW,
The formula for estimating possessions is:

FGA-Off Reb+TO+(FTAx.475)

The fact that each team's possessions as compared to its opponents' are very close (+/-.5 possessions per game or less) leads me to believe it's pretty accurate.

Dan, that is just great work.  Thanks for taking the time to do it.  Points per possession seems to be the most accurate measurement of offensive and defensive efficiency.  Per the above, Elmhurst and Wheaton are the league's "best" offensive teams, while Augustana and Wheaton are the best defensively.

I wonder if the CCIW league office can add offensive and defensive Pts/poss to the stats on CCIW.org?  Seems like they have access to all the necessary data.

I remember trying to calculate this last year using CCIW-only stats.  I ran into a problem in that 3 schools do not list conference-only numbers within their stats (Wheaton, Carthage, and North Central).  I wonder if it would be difficult for those schools to add CCIW-only stats online?