MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Gregory Sager]

NCC 76, Carthage 64

Except for three very brief ties, Carthage led for the first fifteen minutes of the game -- but never by more than five points. The Cardinals then parlayed an 8-0 run into a lead that they never relinquished; NCC led by five at the half, built it up to as many as 13 in the second half, and never let the Red Men get closer than six down the stretch.

Chris Drennan led five Redbirds in double figures with 19, and he also led the hosts in boards with seven. Mitch Raridon added 13 points, while David Twyman, Dean Prince, and Dominique King had ten apiece. Steve Djurickovic had a quiet (for him) night with 24 points and eight assists. Sean Fendley had 11 points, while Richard Williams chipped in with ten.

Only 310 attended the game. Did someone neglect to tell the Carthage and North Central constituencies that their teams are actually in the thick of the post-Raymond CCIW title race?

[armywife]

I remember the same thing would happen at Augie when Shaun played there.

[Gregory Sager]

Other boxes:

MU 73, NPU 68

AC 82, IWU 66

EC 70, WC 57

[sac]

I remember trying to calculate this last year using CCIW-only stats.  I ran into a problem in that 3 schools do not list conference-only numbers within their stats (Wheaton, Carthage, and North Central).  I wonder if it would be difficult for those schools to add CCIW-only stats online?

Doesn't the CCIW website have a conference only stats page? for all teams.
http://www.cciw.org/winter_bball_m/200809_Statistics/CONFONLY.HTM

Yes, but the CCIW.org stats don't include all of the necessary categories to calculate Points per Possession. 

Also, as far as individual stats go, the site only lists category leaders.  So if you're looking for a certain player's stats in league play, you may not find it on the league's conference-only stats page.  Five CCIW schools have a conference-only boxcscore within their stats package.  For example, Millikin...

http://www.millikin.edu/athletics/mbasketball/teamcume.htm

For whatever reason, Wheaton, Carthage, and NCC do not.  I suspect as Dan says, it is just a matter of those schools selecting that option within the software.

The MIAA has conference only stats, its doable.
http://miaa.org/mbb/stats/0809/confstat.htm

[Titan Q]

Sounds like IWU's performance in Rock Island last night was similar to so many games they've played this year, marked by a very inconsistent offensive flow.  IWU scoring vs Augie... 

1st Half
* First 8:20 - 5 points
* Next 11:40 - 28 points

2nd Half
* First 4:09 - 15 points
* Next 9:17 - 2 points
* Final 6:34 - 13 points

As I've posted here several times now this season, the Titans always seem to have two terrible offensive stretches in every game.  Again, it seems to me that is because all of their best players are sophomores and freshmen and while they have a number of extremely talented players in that group, not one has yet emerged as the "go-to" guy.  When times get a little tough, it seems like the Titans aren't sure who to lean on.

Sounds like IWU's two freshmen starters, John Koschnitzky (18 pts, 6 reb) and Jordan Zimmer (12 pts, 3-6 3-pt), played pretty well in their first game vs Augie.  While this season is not shaping up as IWU fans had hoped, I feel like the Titans have a bright future with this cast.  Next year these guys will be older, stronger, and experienced, while at the same time the very talented CCIW Class of 2009 will move on.

At 2-4 in the league, I'm still not giving up on that #4 spot in the conference tournament.  There is still a long way to go and based on remaining schedule, I think 8-6 or 7-7 is possible for the Titans with more consistent play. 

[Titan Q]

Home win = 0
Home loss -1
Road win = +1
Road loss = 0

Through Saturday, Jan. 24

Carthage +2
Elmhurst +1
North Central +1
Augustana +0
Wheaton +0
Illinois Wesleyan -1
Millikin -1
North Park -2

Note...

* Augustana has already played 5 home games...and is 0-2 on the road. 
* Carthage has played 4 road games, but still has to play @ IWU, @ Augie, @ Elmhurst
* IWU has already played @ Augie, @ Carthage, and @ Wheaton
* North Park has already played 5 road games
* Wheaton still has to play @ NCC, @ Augie, @ Elmhurst, @ IWU, @ Carthage

In terms of the title race and the conference tournament field, there is a long, long way to go.  I don't even think it is safe to say that 0-7 North Park is out of the race for the #4 spot...the Vikings play 5 of their final 7 at home.

At +1 and based on remaining schedule, Elmhurst might be in the best position on paper right now.  (Tough call, but if I had to pick one team - again, just in terms of who looks best based on record and remaining schedule on paper - I think that's who I'd go with.)


January 28  
Augustana @ North Park 
Elmhurst @ Carthage 
Millikin @ Ill. Wesleyan 
Wheaton @ North Central 

January 31 
Wheaton @ Augustana 
North Park @ Carthage 
Ill. Wesleyan @ Elmhurst 
North Central @ Millikin

[hope1]

when do they think that  kent raymond  is going to be back that will really help the thunder

[dansand]

Nice win for the Vikes last night. A strong start and strong finish more made up for a bit of a defensive lapse in the middle, but given the nice array of offensive weapons that the Titans have, it's not surprising that they made that run.

Looking at Q's breakdown of the Titan scoring, their 43-point run over the last part of the first half and first part of the second half, coincides almost to the second, with a nearly 16 1/2 minute stretch when they committed no turnovers (after 8 TO's in the first 8+ minutes). IWU did a nice job getting dribble penetration during that stretch, although surprisingly, it seemed like it was Johnson more than Rosenkranz doing the penetrating. The result was good looks on the perimeter for Zimmer and Koschnitzky and opportunities down low for Sexauer. Then, over the last 15 minutes or so, although they didn't force a lot of turnovers (five), Augie did a much better job preventing that penetration.

I was a bit surprised that Wesleyan didn't try and pound it into Sexauer/Chamernick/O'Callaghan in the post in the first half. In fact, it looked to me on their first couple of possessions like their first option was trying to free up Zimmer for threes. I could be wrong, but that was the impression I came away with.

For Augie, Brett Wessels really wanted to be the go-to guy in this one. Although he hasn't shot the three well this year, he's been much better getting to the basket and finishing as compared to last year. That was definitely the case last night. Matt Pelton was outstanding also with 13 points (3-3 3's), three assists, four steals and just one turnover. As usual, Wess, Pelton, Jordan Delp and Alex Washington all were key to the Vikes' outstanding perimeter defense.

Another huge key was the contribution Augie got from the three guys absorbing Justin Bertrand's minutes. Kyle Nelson had a career-high tying 13 points, most in the Vikings' closing run. Bryant Voiles had 8 points and 6 boards and hit the big three that gave Augie the halftime lead, and Jeff Becker was terrific, with 8 rebounds and a block in 10 minutes as well as a great hustle save that led to a Viking transition bucket.

As Q pointed out, the Vikes, along with Wheaton, have the toughest road ahead of them with five road games left to play, but after being 2-2 and two games back a week-and-a-half ago, I like where they're sitting.

[cardinalpride]

Secondly, I am wondering how you define the "best defense in the league"? this is an honest question as I think we all know Augies reputation but after having seen them in person I actually thought IWU was a better defensive team vs Wheaton than Augie. I also think Wheaton has a pretty good defense. So I am wondering what stats or other criteria is a good measure of a team's defense.

FG% defense and turnovers/steals are the two indicators I look for, but even that can't tell the whole story like the eyes can.

Although it's not a readily available statistic (but it can be calculated), points-per-possession is really the best single stat you can use to evaluate both offenses and defenses. It removes the effects of game pace that come into play when using points per game. Defensive FG% and turnovers forced are good indicators, but don't begin to grab the big picture like points-per-possession does. If I get a chance, I'll do some figuring to see how everyone in the league stacks up.

OK. Here are the numbers I come up with (North Parks' stats are only through 14 of 17 games):

                            OFFENSE                                           DEFENSE
Team       Pts    FGA    OR    TO   FTA   Poss   P/100P     OPts  OFGA   OOR   OTO  OFTA  OPoss  OP/100P
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Augie      1233   984   223   227   319   1140   108.2      1045   869   164   290   292   1134    92.2
Carthage   1164   896   144   149   345   1065   109.3      1088   844   162   222   350   1070   101.7
Elmhurst   1232   878   170   220   304   1072   114.9      1111   861   143   196   331   1071   103.7
Ill Wesl   1251   916   146   229   317   1150   108.8      1173   920   159   226   353   1155   101.6
Millikin   1033   838   138   234   285   1069    96.6       993   846   144   233   265   1061    93.6
N. Cntrl   1174   853   147   190   384   1078   108.9      1049   751   126   292   345   1081    97.1
No. Park   1011   758   141   219   278    968   104.4      1063   853   184   189   247    975   109.0
Wheaton    1291   865   140   204   357   1099   117.5      1015   890   162   236   289   1101    92.2

FWIW,
The formula for estimating possessions is:

FGA-Off Reb+TO+(FTAx.475)

The fact that each team's possessions as compared to its opponents' are very close (+/-.5 possessions per game or less) leads me to believe it's pretty accurate.

"P/100P" represents each team's points scored per 100 possessions and "OP/100P" represents their opponents'.

Dan,
Nice job with your formula for estimating possessions.  I do have a couple of questions?
1.) wouldn't offensive rebounds already be accounted for in FGA, TO, and FTA?
2.) How did you come up with the number .475 to multiply fta?

Just curious thats all....thanks!

[usee]

when do they think that  kent raymond  is going to be back that will really help the thunder

I have no information other than what I saw last night. Raymond went out before the game to recieve recognition for his 2,000 pt milestone and he was not wearing a boot and was walking without a limp. watching him move before the game I would think he is getting pretty close. I don't know if he will play @NCC but I wouldn't be surprised to see him give it a go this week in one or both of Wheaton's games. It remains to be seen how effective he may be but I am surprised to see him moving so well (albeit just walking) at this point.

[usee]

I am not a big believer in "must win" games but I think Wheaton's game at NCC Wednesday is about as close to that as you can come for the Thunder. They have a brutal stretch of road games to play (@Augie, @IWu, @Elmhurst, @Carthage) in addition to home games vs Millikin, NP, and NCC. They need to go at least 6-2 the rest of the way to have a chance at hosting the CCIW tournament which means they have to win 3 of their 5 road games in addition to their 3 remaining home games. seems like a tough road to hoe with a hobbled Raymond.

[Titan Q]

Dan,
Nice job with your formula for estimating possessions.  I do have a couple of questions?
1.) wouldn't offensive rebounds already be accounted for in FGA, TO, and FTA?
2.) How did you come up with the number .475 to multiply fta?

Just curious thats all....thanks!

Here is a little about the Points per Possession formula, including where that .475 multiplier comes in...

http://basketballnotebook.blogspot.com/2005/12/basketball-notebook-stats-primer.html

[dansand]

OK. Here are the numbers I come up with (North Parks' stats are only through 14 of 17 games):

                            OFFENSE                                           DEFENSE
Team       Pts    FGA    OR    TO   FTA   Poss   P/100P     OPts  OFGA   OOR   OTO  OFTA  OPoss  OP/100P
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Augie      1233   984   223   227   319   1140   108.2      1045   869   164   290   292   1134    92.2
Carthage   1164   896   144   149   345   1065   109.3      1088   844   162   222   350   1070   101.7
Elmhurst   1232   878   170   220   304   1072   114.9      1111   861   143   196   331   1071   103.7
Ill Wesl   1251   916   146   229   317   1150   108.8      1173   920   159   226   353   1155   101.6
Millikin   1033   838   138   234   285   1069    96.6       993   846   144   233   265   1061    93.6
N. Cntrl   1174   853   147   190   384   1078   108.9      1049   751   126   292   345   1081    97.1
No. Park   1011   758   141   219   278    968   104.4      1063   853   184   189   247    975   109.0
Wheaton    1291   865   140   204   357   1099   117.5      1015   890   162   236   289   1101    92.2

FWIW,
The formula for estimating possessions is:

FGA-Off Reb+TO+(FTAx.475)

The fact that each team's possessions as compared to its opponents' are very close (+/-.5 possessions per game or less) leads me to believe it's pretty accurate.

"P/100P" represents each team's points scored per 100 possessions and "OP/100P" represents their opponents'.

Dan,
Nice job with your formula for estimating possessions.  I do have a couple of questions?
1.) wouldn't offensive rebounds already be accounted for in FGA, TO, and FTA?
2.) How did you come up with the number .475 to multiply fta?

Just curious thats all....thanks!

Thanks Cardinalpride,

1) You have to subtract offensive rebounds because they are a continuation of a possession, not the start of a new one. A possession doesn't end when a shot goes up, only  when the other team gets possession. For example, a team misses a shot, then gets the offensive rebound and scores. So, the team had two FGA's even though it was a single possession.

2) Believe me, I didn't come up with this formula, it's the one a guy named Ken Pomeroy uses. He's one of those sports stat analysis geeks.

http://kenpom.com/rate.php

The gist of the .475 figure is that, generally, two free throws equal a possession (or one free throw equals .5 of a possession). The reason it's adjusted down slightly to .475 is because of the occasional single FTA such as a missed front end of a one-and-one or completion of a traditional three-point play.

Hopefully this is a clear explanation. If not, Pomeroy's site probably explains it a little better.

[AndOne]

when do they think that  kent raymond  is going to be back that will really help the thunder

I have no information other than what I saw last night. Raymond went out before the game to recieve recognition for his 2,000 pt milestone and he was not wearing a boot and was walking without a limp. watching him move before the game I would think he is getting pretty close. I don't know if he will play @NCC but I wouldn't be surprised to see him give it a go this week in one or both of Wheaton's games. It remains to be seen how effective he may be but I am surprised to see him moving so well (albeit just walking) at this point.

I am not a big believer in "must win" games but I think Wheaton's game at NCC Wednesday is about as close to that as you can come for the Thunder. They have a brutal stretch of road games to play (@Augie, @IWu, @Elmhurst, @Carthage) in addition to home games vs Millikin, NP, and NCC. They need to go at least 6-2 the rest of the way to have a chance at hosting the CCIW tournament which means they have to win 3 of their 5 road games in addition to their 3 remaining home games. seems like a tough road to hoe with a hobbled Raymond.

"was walking without a limp"
"a hobbled Raymond"

Isn't that saying 2 different things 

And now for the true story we turn to a report from our investigation reporter, Mr. Usee, who has gotten to the bottom of this situation! 

[AndOne]

Time to head down to the "hanger" for the North Central-Carthage contest.

I think the NCC battle plan revolves largely around:
1. Slowing Stevie D down as much as possible as stopping him seems an impossibility.
2. Really concentrating on limiting Sean Fendley to several pts below his average.
3. Winning the battle of the boards, and not giving CC the opportunity for 2nd chance points.
4. Forcing 16-18 CC TOs.
5. Making an acceptable percentage of their free throws. At least 75 %

The Cards will need to do at least 3 of the above. If they can accomplish that, they have an excellent chance to defeat the Red Men.
We'll see how things work out!

1. Done--Steve was "held" to 5 pts below his average
2. Done--Sean Fendley was also held to 5 pts below his average
Steve D and Fendley were a combined 10 points uder their averages and the only other Red Man in double figures was Richard Williams with 10. 
3. Mostly done--Carthage outrebounded the Cards by just 1, and were limited to only 2 second chance points.
4. Close--The Cards forced 15 TOs while committing 11. Those extra 4 possessions were important in the final margin of victory.
5. Done--The Cards were 17/22 or 77.3 percent.