MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[AndOne]

NCC 76, Carthage 64

Except for three very brief ties, Carthage led for the first fifteen minutes of the game -- but never by more than five points. The Cardinals then parlayed an 8-0 run into a lead that they never relinquished; NCC led by five at the half, built it up to as many as 13 in the second half, and never let the Red Men get closer than six down the stretch.

Chris Drennan led five Redbirds in double figures with 19, and he also led the hosts in boards with seven. Mitch Raridon added 13 points, while David Twyman, Dean Prince, and Dominique King had ten apiece. Steve Djurickovic had a quiet (for him) night with 24 points and eight assists. Sean Fendley had 11 points, while Richard Williams chipped in with ten.

Only 310 attended the game. Did someone neglect to tell the Carthage and North Central constituencies that their teams are actually in the thick of the post-Raymond CCIW title race?

The primary underlying themes of the Cardinals victory over the Red Men (its still hard to make that 2 words) last night were balanced scoring, good defense against the 2 players that can really hurt you, and great ball distribution as evidenced by the Cards 20 assists (vs an in-league team average of only 12.35)

Noteworthy among the performances summarized above by Greg Sager were:
*Chris Drennan's normal good game, especially after I'm sure what he would classify as a sub-par performance by him vs. Elmhurst.
*Mitch Raridon's strong all-around game including hitting 50 percent from the field, 13 points, 3 offensive rebounds, 5 assists, a block, and 3 steals.
*Dean Prince's offensive explosion ( ) for 10 points including a perfect 4/4 from the field (including the last FG of the 1st half as the shot clock expired), and 2/2 from the line. Dean also dished out 4 assists while running the balanced offensive show.
*Dominique King's strong contribution of 10 points off the bench, with the majority coming at important junctures of the game when Carthage either had the momentum or was threatening to assume it.
*The Cardinals domination of the Red Men inside, outscoring them by a 34-16 margin in the paint.   

*Edit----With regard to the Attendance given as 310---I have no idea where whoever entered this figure got it or what he/she was looking at. The attendance at the Millikin game on 1/15/09 was 635. With a strong showing of Carthage fans there were at least as many bodies in the hanger as attended the Millikin game. All you had to do to know that was look at the stands. The main floor seating was just about completely full, and there must have been at least 200 fans seated in the balcony. 

[cardinalpride]

Dan,
Nice job with your formula for estimating possessions.  I do have a couple of questions?
1.) wouldn't offensive rebounds already be accounted for in FGA, TO, and FTA?
2.) How did you come up with the number .475 to multiply fta?

Just curious thats all....thanks!

Here is a little about the Points per Possession formula, including where that .475 multiplier comes in...

http://basketballnotebook.blogspot.com/2005/12/basketball-notebook-stats-primer.html

OK. Here are the numbers I come up with (North Parks' stats are only through 14 of 17 games):

                            OFFENSE                                           DEFENSE
Team       Pts    FGA    OR    TO   FTA   Poss   P/100P     OPts  OFGA   OOR   OTO  OFTA  OPoss  OP/100P
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Augie      1233   984   223   227   319   1140   108.2      1045   869   164   290   292   1134    92.2
Carthage   1164   896   144   149   345   1065   109.3      1088   844   162   222   350   1070   101.7
Elmhurst   1232   878   170   220   304   1072   114.9      1111   861   143   196   331   1071   103.7
Ill Wesl   1251   916   146   229   317   1150   108.8      1173   920   159   226   353   1155   101.6
Millikin   1033   838   138   234   285   1069    96.6       993   846   144   233   265   1061    93.6
N. Cntrl   1174   853   147   190   384   1078   108.9      1049   751   126   292   345   1081    97.1
No. Park   1011   758   141   219   278    968   104.4      1063   853   184   189   247    975   109.0
Wheaton    1291   865   140   204   357   1099   117.5      1015   890   162   236   289   1101    92.2

FWIW,
The formula for estimating possessions is:

FGA-Off Reb+TO+(FTAx.475)

The fact that each team's possessions as compared to its opponents' are very close (+/-.5 possessions per game or less) leads me to believe it's pretty accurate.

"P/100P" represents each team's points scored per 100 possessions and "OP/100P" represents their opponents'.

Dan,
Nice job with your formula for estimating possessions.  I do have a couple of questions?
1.) wouldn't offensive rebounds already be accounted for in FGA, TO, and FTA?
2.) How did you come up with the number .475 to multiply fta?

Just curious thats all....thanks!

Thanks Cardinalpride,

1) You have to subtract offensive rebounds because they are a continuation of a possession, not the start of a new one. A possession doesn't end when a shot goes up, only  when the other team gets possession. For example, a team misses a shot, then gets the offensive rebound and scores. So, the team had two FGA's even though it was a single possession.

2) Believe me, I didn't come up with this formula, it's the one a guy named Ken Pomeroy uses. He's one of those sports stat analysis geeks.

http://kenpom.com/rate.php

The gist of the .475 figure is that, generally, two free throws equal a possession (or one free throw equals .5 of a possession). The reason it's adjusted down slightly to .475 is because of the occasional single FTA such as a missed front end of a one-and-one or completion of a traditional three-point play.

Hopefully this is a clear explanation. If not, Pomeroy's site probably explains it a little better.

Thanks,
TQ and Dan!

[usee]

when do they think that  kent raymond  is going to be back that will really help the thunder

I have no information other than what I saw last night. Raymond went out before the game to recieve recognition for his 2,000 pt milestone and he was not wearing a boot and was walking without a limp. watching him move before the game I would think he is getting pretty close. I don't know if he will play @NCC but I wouldn't be surprised to see him give it a go this week in one or both of Wheaton's games. It remains to be seen how effective he may be but I am surprised to see him moving so well (albeit just walking) at this point.

I am not a big believer in "must win" games but I think Wheaton's game at NCC Wednesday is about as close to that as you can come for the Thunder. They have a brutal stretch of road games to play (@Augie, @IWu, @Elmhurst, @Carthage) in addition to home games vs Millikin, NP, and NCC. They need to go at least 6-2 the rest of the way to have a chance at hosting the CCIW tournament which means they have to win 3 of their 5 road games in addition to their 3 remaining home games. seems like a tough road to hoe with a hobbled Raymond.

"was walking without a limp"
"a hobbled Raymond"

Isn't that saying 2 different things 

And now for the true story we turn to a report from our investigation reporter, Mr. Usee, who has gotten to the bottom of this situation! 

AO,

I really took you for a smarter guy than that!!?? I would think even you would know the difference between a player walking straight ahead in street clothes (without a limp) and a player playing in a high impact college basketball game less than 2 weeks after a high ankle sprain (hobbled??).  8)

[Viking Mike]

What a great game environment Saturday at Carver!!!

The Vikings came out hot and played excellent defense for the majority of the game and shot at a 50% clip.
The fan support was huge with about 1500 in attendance including about 250-300 from IWU.
It felt more like a tournament game with a championship feel.  Hopefully the Vikes can turn it up on the road now as they play 5 of their last 7 away from Carver.

Does anyone know how serious Bertrand's ankle sprain is?
I was thinking he would be out 2-3 games, but if it's a high ankle sprain, could we be talking 2-3 weeks???
We definately need him with Wheaton and Elmhurst coming up!

[voxelmhurst]

As an Elmhurst fan, its really great to see Chris Childs step up his game, and turn in what has to be his greatest performance for Elmhurst to date, last night at Wheaton.

My friend and I were discussing how in the last several years, Elmhurst has seemed to almost need a bad loss early in the CCIW season to wake them up.  This is, so far, proving to be true again this year.

[wheels81]

Time to head down to the "hanger" for the North Central-Carthage contest.

I think the NCC battle plan revolves largely around:
1. Slowing Stevie D down as much as possible as stopping him seems an impossibility.
2. Really concentrating on limiting Sean Fendley to several pts below his average.
3. Winning the battle of the boards, and not giving CC the opportunity for 2nd chance points.
4. Forcing 16-18 CC TOs.
5. Making an acceptable percentage of their free throws. At least 75 %

The Cards will need to do at least 3 of the above. If they can accomplish that, they have an excellent chance to defeat the Red Men.


We'll see how things work out!

1. Done--Steve was "held" to 5 pts below his average
2. Done--Sean Fendley was also held to 5 pts below his average
Steve D and Fendley were a combined 10 points uder their averages and the only other Red Man in double figures was Richard Williams with 10. 
3. Mostly done--Carthage outrebounded the Cards by just 1, and were limited to only 2 second chance points.
4. Close--The Cards forced 15 TOs while committing 11. Those extra 4 possessions were important in the final margin of victory.
5. Done--The Cards were 17/22 or 77.3 percent.

     

AO, giving himself props when no one else would
You da man

[74impala]

I'm afraid that even Raymond's return might not be enough for the Thunder.  Just as important as his return, the Thunder need to get rid of the 'yips' at the FT line.  In a close game, I can see an opponent resorting to the hack a Weile.

[usee]

I'm afraid that even Raymond's return might not be enough for the Thunder.  Just as important as his return, the Thunder need to get rid of the 'yips' at the FT line.  In a close game, I can see an opponent resorting to the hack a Weile.

There is no question that Raymond's presence is additive to the Thunder's FT shooting. He is 92% from the line and the team, without Raymond, is 69%. They are still obviously shooting a much lower percentag over the last 2 games than their average. Each of Wheaton's starters are shooting a better % from the line than last year but for whatever reason they have lost focus the last two games. Wiele was 70% FT shooter last season and is shooting a dismal 51% this season. But Panner, Carwell, and Jahns are all improved from last years numbers. Pflederer is shooting only 59% and for a guard that doesn't seem very good.

Whatever the reasons, Wheaton has shot well below their percentages from the line as a team the last 2 home games and that is a big reason they haven't been more competitive without Raymond.

[markerickson]

FYI:  I received a letter last week from NP's Athletic Director, Dr. Jack Surridge.  He mentioned one hurdle (in his five year plan for athletics) pertains to a coaching disparity.  His research concluded that when comparing identical sport offerings against CCIW schools, NP has 5.8 less full-time equivalent coaches than the league.  I don't have the actual report so I don't know if this means coaches who are employed full time on campus or employed full time as coaches. 

[usee]

Wheaton faces their biggest nemesis in Naperville on Wednesday in what is easily their biggest game of the season. They haven't had a victory vs NCC since February of 2005 after being swept the past two years. Since last year's cast is very similar for both teams its worth some analysis.

NCC shot 57% and 60% against the Thunder last year to Wheaton's 50% and 42% respectively. The biggest disparity in the games was points in the paint. NCC had 40 and 38 to the Thunders 30 and 10 in their 2 contests. North Central has killed Wheaton with easy baskets and wide open looks the last 2 years. The Thunder simply have not had a good defensive effort agains the Cardinals in their losing streak and it will have to change if they don't want history to repeat itself. For whatever reason North Central seems to have Wheaton's number the last few years.

[Dennis_Prikkel]

I'm afraid that even Raymond's return might not be enough for the Thunder.  Just as important as his return, the Thunder need to get rid of the 'yips' at the FT line.  In a close game, I can see an opponent resorting to the hack a Weile.

free throws are 50% mechanical and 50% psychological.  If (the big if) Raymond returns - his leadership and steadying presence - would help the psych end of the Crusaders FT woes.

DGP

[Dennis_Prikkel]

FYI:  I received a letter last week from NP's Athletic Director, Dr. Jack Surridge.  He mentioned one hurdle (in his five year plan for athletics) pertains to a coaching disparity.  His research concluded that when comparing identical sport offerings against CCIW schools, NP has 5.8 less full-time equivalent coaches than the league.  I don't have the actual report so I don't know if this means coaches who are employed full time on campus or employed full time as coaches. 

Mark - as donor I'm on all sorts of North Park lists - but I guess Jack knows enough about me to keep me off the list that you received your mailing from....

Anyway you cut it - Jack is looking for excuses - rather than results.

DGP

[74impala]

I'm afraid that even Raymond's return might not be enough for the Thunder.  Just as important as his return, the Thunder need to get rid of the 'yips' at the FT line.  In a close game, I can see an opponent resorting to the hack a Weile.

free throws are 50% mechanical and 50% psychological.  If (the big if) Raymond returns - his leadership and steadying presence - would help the psych end of the Crusaders FT woes.

DGP

I sure hope that's the case.  But right now Wheaton's FT look more like 10% mechanical and 90% psychological.  No one appeared comfortable at the line Saturday night.  While Raymond's return should boost their confidence...they still have to make their own shots.  And until they prove they can, teams will not be afraid to send them to the line.

[Dennis_Prikkel]

FYI:  I received a letter last week from NP's Athletic Director, Dr. Jack Surridge.  He mentioned one hurdle (in his five year plan for athletics) pertains to a coaching disparity.  His research concluded that when comparing identical sport offerings against CCIW schools, NP has 5.8 less full-time equivalent coaches than the league.  I don't have the actual report so I don't know if this means coaches who are employed full time on campus or employed full time as coaches. 

on further thought Mark, Jack is probably right, let's see, so far in the 2008-09 school year in CCIW competion
0-7 in football (seven years without a conference victory)
0-7 in volleyball (four years without a conference victory)
0-7 in men's basketball (last winning conference season, 1994, Bosko's last at NPC)
0-5 in women's basketball (one winning CCIW season in the last eight)

is there a pattern here?

dgp

[Gregory Sager]

FYI:  I received a letter last week from NP's Athletic Director, Dr. Jack Surridge.  He mentioned one hurdle (in his five year plan for athletics) pertains to a coaching disparity.  His research concluded that when comparing identical sport offerings against CCIW schools, NP has 5.8 less full-time equivalent coaches than the league.  I don't have the actual report so I don't know if this means coaches who are employed full time on campus or employed full time as coaches. 

I don't know that, either, but my guess is that he meant coaches that are employed full-time as coaches. NPU has always managed to find a way to get certain assistant coaches part-time work on campus in order to give them the hourly equivalent of full-time employment -- I worked with a couple of them when I was employed by NPU's Department of Records and Registration -- and some of the assistant coaches at North Park are full-time employees elsewhere on campus who coach on a volunteer basis.

I'm sure that this is Jack's way of highlighting the fact that the NPU athletic department is underfunded compared to its CCIW rivals, but it's not always an apples-to-apples comparison, either. F'rinstance, NPU does not field teams in several CCIW sports (men's and women's swimming, men's and women's tennis, and wrestling). That means that the school's athletic department doesn't have to spend money on those sports, while its CCIW rivals that do have to cut their budgetary pie slices correspondingly smaller.

Confining the discussion to men's basketball, I don't sense that the NPU program's financial resources are deficient as compared to other CCIW programs. NPU doesn't have Wheaton's budget, but, then again, North Park coaches don't have to hop on planes in order to scout most of their prospects. (NPU has scouted several out-of-state prospects this season, but the coach who did the scouting traveled by car.) Paul Brenegan and Steve Schafer pull double duty as coaches; Brenegan is the men's golf coach, Schafer is the women's golf coach. But there's no seasonal conflicts there and I don't think that either one is sacrificing time and effort to golf that would otherwise be spent on men's basketball. One assistant coach is a volunteer who works full-time elsewhere on campus, and the other three assistant coaches are volunteers who have full-time jobs away from NPU. The team usually gets to take a snowbird trip (it didn't this season, and the current economic climate and the $2,000,000 aftermath of the September campus flood might make a snowbird trip problematic for the next few years), and there's money in the budget for a JV team, even though all of the roster hits kept the program from having a JV team this season.

In short, I don't think that the year-to-year budget is holding back North Park men's basketball.