MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Thunder Dutch]

Statement victory  tonight for Wheaton.  Even though his performance might be overlooked on the stat sheet, Jake Carwell was the leader for the Thunder.  He set the tone with his hustle on both ends of the floor and seemed to be everywhere defensively.  I think we can end the debate between Ruch and Raymond for M.O.P. because there was no question who the best player on the floor was tonight.  Wheaton seems to be back to their pre-injury form and if the North Park game was any indicator, Wheaton won't be looking past IWU to get to their rematch with Carthage.

I think you can see Jake's all-around impact on the game in the stat sheet too...
4 points (2/4), 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 blocks, 4 steals, 3? charges drawn, just 1 turnover. all in 24 minutes.

[sac]

Just talked to someone close to things at IWU.  The Titans are going big Saturday vs Wheaton, starting...

Brett Chamernik, 6-5
John Koschnitzky, 6-6
Doug Sexauer, 6-7
Eric McCullough, 6-9
Ryan Connolly, 6-9


Wait till you see my boy Chamy handle the rock.  Looking forward to it!

Maybe this says something about me, but one of the best moments on this board was when Q posted IWU was going to use a 5 guard offense against someone a few years ago.

[OurHouse]

Finally, let's hope those two young, inconsistent teams you saw last night are much different squads in 2009-10.  I think there is a real good chance both will be very good down the road.
[/quote]

Regardless of what caliper player you have or what it looks like, "down the road" it comes down to 4 basic principals in winning--

INTENSITY
DESIRE
HEART
WORK ETHIC

You may win a conference but to win an NCAA DIII Championship, a team needs these basic principals - winning it ALL is the measurement of greatness

[Titan Q]

Regardless of what caliper player you have or what it looks like, "down the road" it comes down to 4 basic principals in winning--

INTENSITY
DESIRE
HEART
WORK ETHIC

You may win a conference but to win an NCAA DIII Championship, a team needs these basic principals - winning it ALL is the measurement of greatness

A team can have all 4 of those things and still go 4-10 in the league.

[paularmerding]

A caliper is a fine instrument used to very precisely measure or compare small distances
RE: the HS skills translating or evolving during the college years--I think it depends highly on what the college coach is asking or expecting of the player.  Players that have multiple skills that could all be developed and utilized in the HS setting are usually asked to fill a more specific role in college. Even if they gain in strength, speed, quickness, etc. with a more mature body, they can actually lose skills they had in high school if they are not asked, or given permission, to use them in college.  I saw this first hand with one of my sons that played for Bill Harris.  In high school he played alot of point guard.  At 6'5" he had good handles (behind the back dribbles at full speed, bringing the ball up against a press, etc) and could knock down the 3 in the 35-40% range. At WC he was defined as a post player and was basically told not to dribble or shoot outside of 6-8 feet.  Being the obedient child that I raised him to be , he complied with this and clearly lost not only confidence, which of course is important too, but also skills.  By his junior year, had I been his coach, I also would have been telling him not to dribble or shoot the 3. Practice is crucial, but also what you don't use in a game setting, you tend to lose.  So my opinion from afar, having never seen the Mr. Zimmer in question on the court, is that his role and performance will be significantly affected by his coach's expectations of him.

[Dennis_Prikkel]

Finally, let's hope those two young, inconsistent teams you saw last night are much different squads in 2009-10.  I think there is a real good chance both will be very good down the road.

Regardless of what caliper player you have or what it looks like, "down the road" it comes down to 4 basic principals in winning--

INTENSITY
DESIRE
HEART
WORK ETHIC

You may win a conference but to win an NCAA DIII Championship, a team needs these basic principals - winning it ALL is the measurement of greatness
[/quote]

+K for you

you left out one other ingredient for consistent winning - experience (i.E. upperclassmen).

[petemcb]

Finally, let's hope those two young, inconsistent teams you saw last night are much different squads in 2009-10.  I think there is a real good chance both will be very good down the road.

Regardless of what caliper player you have or what it looks like, "down the road" it comes down to 4 basic principals in winning--

INTENSITY
DESIRE
HEART
WORK ETHIC

You may win a conference but to win an NCAA DIII Championship, a team needs these basic principals - winning it ALL is the measurement of greatness

+K for you

you left out one other ingredient for consistent winning - experience (i.E. upperclassmen).
[/quote]

and maybe good health?

[Darryl Nester]

Pardon the intrusion to your board ... I've been working on a program I wrote a couple of years ago to analyze scenarios for the HCAC standings, trying to extend it so that it could do a similar analysis for any other conference.  The CCIW is my first official "guinea pig" conference in this regard.

The table at the end of this post lists--as a percentage of all possible outcomes for the remaining 11 games--the final seeding for each team.  These are not probabilities (unless you believe that each team has an equal likelihood of winning each game).

I assumed in making this table that your conference's tie-breaking procedure was the same as those of the HCAC (I was too lazy to investigate this myself).

Team	Overall	Home	Away	Remaining Games
Wheaton (Ill.)	8-3	4-2	4-1	@ IWU, @ CC, vs. NCC
Augustana	8-4	6-1	2-3	@ NCC, @ IWU
Elmhurst	7-4	4-2	3-2	@ NPU, @ NCC, vs. CC
North Central (Ill.)	7-4	4-1	3-3	vs. AC, vs. EC, @ WC
Carthage	6-5	2-3	4-2	vs. MU, vs. WC, @ EC
Illinois Wesleyan	5-6	2-3	3-3	vs. WC, @ MU, vs. AC
Millikin	4-7	3-3	1-4	@ CC, vs. IWU, @ NPU
North Park	0-12	0-5	0-7	vs. EC, vs. MU

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	#8
WC	52.08%	18.97%	14.82%	7.59%	5.81%	0.73%	--	--
AC	14.65%	24.71%	30.69%	22.23%	6.88%	0.85%	--	--
EC	14.38%	28.15%	28.12%	17.04%	9.57%	2.73%	--	--
NCC	16.94%	22.31%	16.87%	32.93%	9.28%	1.61%	0.05%	--
CC	1.95%	5.76%	7.71%	15.98%	46.48%	18.89%	3.22%	--
IWU	--	0.10%	1.78%	3.75%	15.40%	53.82%	25.15%	--
MU	--	--	--	0.46%	6.59%	21.36%	71.58%	--
NPU	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	100.00%

[Titan Q]

Darryl, that is just really good stuff.  Thank you!

My Titans only have a 3.75% chance at 4th place...not good!

[Titan Q]

Just talked to someone close to things at IWU.  The Titans are going big Saturday vs Wheaton, starting...

Brett Chamernik, 6-5
John Koschnitzky, 6-6
Doug Sexauer, 6-7
Eric McCullough, 6-9
Ryan Connolly, 6-9


Wait till you see my boy Chamy handle the rock.  Looking forward to it!

Maybe this says something about me, but one of the best moments on this board was when Q posted IWU was going to use a 5 guard offense against someone a few years ago.

To recap...

* The night before Carthage played @ IWU in 2001 in a pivotal Saturday game, I made a post similar to above, indicating that Dennie Bridges had decided to go small and start 5 guards.  I actually had some detailed reasoning behind it.

* It turns out, one of Bosko Djurickovic's assistants called him at home and basically said, "Hey, Wesleyan is starting 5 guards tomorrow...we need to talk."

* Back then (before I did the radio), my normal seat at the Shirk Center was right near the scorer's table.  As the pregame clock hit zero, just before the starting lineups, Bosko walks over with one of those big Bosko grins and says, "Q, you've lost all credibility on the chat board...and my assistant needs to stay off the internet."


I guess Dennie changed his mind.  IWU only started 2 guards....

http://www.iwu.edu/~iwunews/sports/mbb2001/022101m.htm

[74impala]

Finally, let's hope those two young, inconsistent teams you saw last night are much different squads in 2009-10.  I think there is a real good chance both will be very good down the road.

Regardless of what caliper player you have or what it looks like, "down the road" it comes down to 4 basic principals in winning--

INTENSITY
DESIRE
HEART
WORK ETHIC

You may win a conference but to win an NCAA DIII Championship, a team needs these basic principals - winning it ALL is the measurement of greatness
[/quote]

How about one more...the ability to score more points than your opponent.

[titanfan]

Darryl, that is just really good stuff.  Thank you!

My Titans only have a 3.75% chance at 4th place...not good!

But, based on a 1 of 2 chance to win any individual game, and assuming that the Titans finishing 2nd, 3rd, or 4th requires them winning their final three games (a 1 out of 8 chance), I think you can multiply those percentages by 8 and say IF the Titans win all 3 of their games, then, their chances of making the tourney are (0.10% + 1.78% + 3.75%) * 8 = 45.04%.

So, if the Titans win their final 3 games, they have a 45.04% chance of making the tourney.  That may not be exact, but I think it should be pretty close.

Daryl, does that jive with your calcs???

[Darryl Nester]

That's in the ballpark, titanfan.  The interaction between the records of different teams makes it a little more complicated than that, but if IWU won their last three games, the top lines of the table look like this:

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	Tournament?
WC	38.28%	25.39%	13.67%	7.81%	85.16%
EC	25.78%	30.47%	24.22%	7.03%	87.50%
NCC	23.44%	22.27%	11.33%	27.93%	84.96%
AC	7.81%	16.41%	27.93%	20.05%	72.20%
IWU	--	0.78%	14.26%	24.54%	39.58%

(Sorry, that's probably a lot more information than you really wanted in response to your question.)

[AndOne]

Last night in Kenosha, a very nice 7 page packet of game notes and statistics was available to fans attending the Carthage game vs North Central. The 1st section on the front page of the packet was entitled "Carthage in a Must-Win Game vs. North Central Tonight." Fortunately for the North Central Cardinals, they took that statement more seriously than did the Carthage RedMenMan.
Therein lies the real story of this game. The better team won by playing as a team, rather than a one man band.

Granted, Bosko knows his team best, but it seemed odd when, in a "Must-Win" game, Carthage started Steve Ideran who had played 98 minutes all season and was averaging a whopping 1.6 ppg. Ideran did hit one basket for 3 points during the game, thus almost doubling his scoring average. Besides THE (Red) Man, the only other Carthage player who can really hurt you is Sean Fendley. As part of the "let Steve D. get his and shut off the other players" strategy, David Twyman, who has recently shut down other big scorers, was assigned to Fendley, and rendered him completely ineffective. For the night, Fendley was able to get off only 5 shots, hitting only 1. The 3 point specialist was 0 for 4 from beyond the arc. He went to the foul line 4 times, sinking 3, but 2 of those attempts were the product of a NCC technical foul rather than anything relative to the attempted creation of a shot. Rather than work inside, 6'6" Adan Tolo took delight in firing 3 point attempts from the deep corner. Of his 5 shot attempts, 4 were 3 pointers, of which he connected on only one. The first time he launched a bomb from the corner, I said out loud, "let him have that one all night." I'm aware the recently had a game where I believe he hit something like 6 3 pointers, but that could very well never happen again. The final stat sheet showed that another 6'6" player, Richard Williams, saw 13 minutes of action. However, the NCC defense rendered him virtually invisible. He was able to get off only one shot and ended the evening scoreless. In the 2nd half, Bosko employed a plethora of players to pass the ball to his son. 8 subs saw action for the RedMen. The only players who failed to see action,could certainly contributed as much to the Carthage effort as did those who were fortunate enough to see any PT. For the evening, the NCC defense held Carthage to 40 percent shooting, including 30 percent on threes. Steve D scored 36 points. The remainder of the team scored only 21. The Cardinals defense held Carthage to 40 percent shooting, including only 30 percent on threes. In the final few minutes when Carthage was attempting to stage a come back, all anyone on the team tried to do was pass the ball to Steve D, often passing up open shots of their own. The Cards hit 12 of 14 FTs in thre game's las 2 or 3 minutes.

Matt Rogers netted 14 points on 4/9 from the field and 6/7 from the line. Reid barringer chipped in with 11 on 3/5 (2/4 threes) and 3/4 FTs. Dean Prince dished out 5 assists while not committing a turnover. The Cards out-rebounded the taller Red Men by a 36-24 margin.

Special mention goes to Chris Drennan who had a double-double with 24 points and 14 rebounds against the taller Tolo and Williams. The 24 points put him over 1000 for his career. The All-Conference played achieved this milestone despite not playing full time in either his freshman or sophomore seasons.

[wheels81]

That's in the ballpark, titanfan.  The interaction between the records of different teams makes it a little more complicated than that, but if IWU won their last three games, the top lines of the table looks like this:

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	Tournament?
WC	38.28%	25.39%	13.67%	7.81%	85.16%
EC	25.78%	30.47%	24.22%	7.03%	87.50%
NCC	23.44%	22.27%	11.33%	27.93%	84.96%
AC	7.81%	16.41%	27.93%	20.05%	72.20%
IWU	--	0.78%	14.26%	24.54%	39.58%

(Sorry, that's probably a lot more information than you really wanted in response to your question.)

Only from the minds of actuaries does this stuff come from.  I like "Numbers" but I don't think even Charlie would bother with this. 
Good to see AO got his Karma back way to tough it out

As stated by thunder dutch Enough cannot be said on what J. Carwell means to the Thunder and brings to the floor game after game. He's the blue collar guy who just does all the stuff "behind the scenes" he takes charges, tips passes, alters or blocks shots, dishes out to the scorers and rebounds.  Last night's game was probably his best where he only played 24 min but was able to do so much as the stat line showed. 
Can't wait to for them to get back the other 2 losses next week.   But can't look past the State Farm U. guys, they got nothing to lose despite some wacky numbers listed above.  And those teams can be the most dangerous.