MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[petemcb]

I agree that an Augie loss versus IWU is not a safe bet, but this season a win is not a slam dunk either.  And while a Carthage win against Wheaton on Wednesday would be a longshot, it will be very interesting to see which Elmhurst team shows up on Saturday night.  Elmhurst has had a bit of a schizophrenic season which makes for a tougher call on next Saturday's game.

[Titan Q]

Wheaton (9-3) - @ Carthage, vs North Central
Elmhurst (8-4) - @ North Central, vs Carthage
North Central (8-4) - vs Elmhurst, @ Wheaton
Augustana (8-5) - @ IWU
Carthage (7-5) - vs Wheaton, @ Elmhurst


Here is how I see this.  Let me know if I am missing something...

* Wheaton: Cannot clinch Wednesday @ Carthage, no matter what happens in other games.  The Elmhurst/NCC winner will still be very much alive for the 10-4 tie-breaker.  Wheaton loses 10-4 tie-breakers with Elmhurst and NCC because of the loss @ NCC earlier.  Based on what happens in Naperville Wednesday, either Elmhurst will own a sweep of NCC (tie-breaker over Wheaton), or NCC will come to Wheaton with a chance to sweep Wheaton (which would obviously be the tie-breaker over Wheaton).  To be the #1 seed, Wheaton has to win out. 

* Elmhurst: To be the #1 seed, has to win out, and hope Wheaton loses one more game.   For Elmhurst, 2-0 vs NCC would provide the tie-breaker vs Wheaton (which has already lost once to NCC).

* North Central: Controls its down destiny in terms of being the #1 seed - needs to win out. A sweep over Wheaton would win the 10-4 tie-breaker.

* Augustana: mathmatically eliminated from #1 seed and does not control own destiny to make tournament...has to win @IWU and hope Carthage loses one more game.  The sweep at the hands of Wheaton loses all tie-breakers.  Most likely scenario is #4 seed, facing the host on Friday night of conference tourney.  Augie loses an 8-6 tie-breaker with Carthage.

* Carthage: to be guaranteed spot in tournament, has to win out (vs Wheaton, @ Elmhurst)...9-5 gets them in. But, would win 8-6 tie-breaker over Augustana, which plays at IWU in finale.

[Viking Mike]

In addition to the above possibilities of .....1) Augie losing a tiebreaker to Carthage and missing the tourney (hard to
                                                                        believe)
                                                                    2) Augie getting the 4th seed

                                                                        ......there is still a scenario where if NC loses to elmhurst and wheaton and
                                                                        augie beats IWU, the Vikes would capture the 3rd seed.

This has been a rather disappointing season for Augie.
Expectations were so high for a 4th CCIW title and a run in the NCAA's.
Now were down to the last game and hoping for a win to even make the CCIW tourney.
I will be cheering for Emhurst and Wheaton this week to knock off  NC and Carthage. I think if the Blue Jays can put together a solid game on Wed, they have a good shot.  If NC wins, I believe the best the Vikings can do is the #4 seed.  I don't see Wheaton losing at Carthage or at home against North Central, not with a chance to host on the line.  The 3rd seed is huge.
I think Augie can beat the Thunder..... I would rather see it happen in the final though.  I think Augie pretty much has to win the tourney title to make the NCAA"S at this point.  Last night 's game was there for the taking, but there were too many defensive lapses.  Hoping my Vikes can right the ship and still turn this season into a memorable year!!!!  This conference is so tough!!!   Go Augustana!!!!

[Titan Q]

How hard is it to win the CCIW 4 consecutive years?  It has not happened since Augustana did it from 1971-1974.  Before that, IWU did it from 1964-1967.  The last two tries...

* This season, Augustana returned 4 of 5 starters and 6 of its top 7 (plus a former 1st Teamer back from injury, Jordan Delp) from a team that lost in the NCAA tournament to eventual national champs Wash U, in OT.  The Vikings were ranked #2 in the D3hoops.com preseason poll this season.  Augie has 5 CCIW losses with one to play.

* In 2005-06, Illinois Wesleyan returned 5 starters and basically its entire rotation, including 3 1st Team All-Americans (Adam Dauksas, Keelan Amelianovich, Zach Freeman).  The Titans were ranked #1 in the D3hoops.com preseason poll.  IWU went 9-5 in the CCIW.

[Titan Q]

Interesting to keep the mathmatical odds in mind, thanks to our friend Darry...

Now that the final score for the night has been posted (Carthage 72, Millikin 69), here are the updated standings and scenarios:

Team	Overall	Home	Away	Remaining Games
Wheaton (Ill.)	9-3	4-2	5-1	@ CC, vs. NCC
Elmhurst	8-4	4-2	4-2	@ NCC, vs. CC
North Central (Ill.)	8-4	5-1	3-3	vs. EC, @ WC
Augustana	8-5	6-1	2-4	@ IWU
Carthage	7-5	3-3	4-2	vs. WC, @ EC
Illinois Wesleyan	5-7	2-4	3-3	@ MU, vs. AC
Millikin	4-8	3-3	1-5	vs. IWU, @ NPU
North Park	0-13	0-6	0-7	vs. MU

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	Tournament?
Wheaton (Ill.)	53.12%	21.88%	18.75%	6.25%	Yes
North Central (Ill.)	25.00%	29.69%	26.56%	15.62%	96.88%
Elmhurst	21.88%	35.94%	23.44%	12.50%	93.75%
Augustana	--	--	21.88%	51.56%	73.44%
Carthage	--	12.50%	9.38%	14.06%	35.94%

The most likely scenario is:

1. Wheaton
2. Elmhurst
3. North Central
4. Augustana

Carthage is a significant longshot based on remaining schedule.

[Viking Mike]

Titan Q-

I remember that 2005-06 Titan team.  Augie beat them twice during the regular season en route to their run but then had to face them in the first round ot the inaugural CCIW tourney in Rock Island.  They beat the Vikes and though they lost to NC in the final, they made the NCAA tourney.   I remember how lucky we were to beat them twice that year and knew that they were a quality team.   I believe they went on to the Final Four and finished 3rd in the country.  I'm hoping for a similar outcome for Augie as they have really struggled through the regular season.  They have looked unbeatable at times, esp at home.  On the road they have not been able to put teams away and then have defensive lapses such as last night's game.  I'm hoping the Vikes can put it all together before it's too late.

Another scenario I came up with involves Wheaton beating Carthage and losing to North Central at home.
Elmhurst would lose to NC AND Carthage at home.  Augie beats IWU.

1)North Central
2)Wheaton
3)Augie
4)Elmhurst wins tiebreaker against Carthage (2-2 vs Wheaton/NC)

Again would not want to face the Thunder in the first round.  I think this is less likely. Wheaton is the best team in the conference and I see them winning it.  North Central/Elmhurst/Augie are the other top three teams in my eyes.

[Titan Q]

With IWU's elimination from the conference tournament field, this is all I got, so I apologize to all those still 100% focused on this season!

2009-10 Returning Points/Rebounds/Assists (CCIW-only stats through 2/14)
(listed in order of most likely 2009 finish)

Wheaton – 47% points, 58% rebounds, 72% assists
Elmhurst – 47% points, 53% rebounds, 70% assists
North Central – 30% points, 38% rebounds, 23% assists
Augustana – 36% points, 40% rebounds, 43% assists
Carthage – 90% points, 78% rebounds, 78% assists
Illinois Wesleyan – 90% points, 94% rebounds, 98% assists
Millikin – 61% points, 74% rebounds, 57% assists
North Park – 98% points, 95% rebounds, 99% assists

This year, the four oldest teams will probably finish in the upper half of the league, while the 4 youngest will probably finish in the bottom half.

It should also be noted regarding next year that 90-whatever % of IWU's defense also returns!

[Titan Q]

CCIW teams have beaten each other up so much that our Pool C situation has become very dicey...

In-region records through 2/14:

Wheaton: 16-3 (.842)
Elmhurst: 17-6 (.739)
North Central: 14-5 (.737)
Augustana: 16-7 (.696)

In-region records of the 2008 Pool C teams:

(in-region records)

Amherst (NESCAC), 23-2 (.920)
Centre (SCAC), 20-2 (.909)
Mass-Dartmouth (LEC), 25-3 (.893)
Gettysburg (CC), 20-3 (.870)
Wooster (NCAC), 16-3 (.842)
Brandeis (UAA), 19-4 (.826)
Capital (OAC), 22-5 (.815)
Buena Vista (IIAC), 17-4 (.809)
Va. Wesleyan (ODAC), 21-5 (.808)
Worcester Poly (NEWMAC), 20-5 (.800)
Rochester (UAA), 19-5 (.792)
Bowdoin (NESCAC), 21-6 (.777)
Occidental (SCIAC), 14-4 (.777)
UW-Stevens Point (WIAC), 20-6 (.769)
Wash U (UAA), 16-5 (.762)
Middlebury (NESCAC), 18-6 (.750)
Wheaton (CCIW), 15-7 (.682)

Keep in mind...

1) Elmhurst and North Central will play Wednesday - 1 is guaranteed to lose another game.

2) In the conference tournament, 3 teams will see their in-region winning % fall (the second place team will go 1-1 while two teams will go 0-1). 


Wheaton is in the NCAA tournament field, either as a Pool A or a Pool C.  After that, Elmhurst, NCC, and Augustana are on the bubble at best.

[dansand]

Any Augie posters who will be in Naperville tonight------

I'll be between the 2 main sets of doors on the north side of the gym behind the folding chairs at halftime, and look forward to meeting any of you in attendance.

anyone take him up on this sounds ominous

HaHa...I don't think it was meant as a threat, as AndOne went out of his way to come over to the scorer's table at halftime and introduce himself. He didn't take a swing at me or anything, so I think it was meant as a friendly invitation.

Good to meet you AndOne.

As far as the game goes...ouch. A win would've left Augie in pretty good shape as far as the CCIW tournament and potential NCAA at-large, but obviously it's a lot dicier now. After playing very well offensively for the first 31 minutes (54% FG, only 8 TO's), the Vikes went through a disastrous six-minute scoreless stretch and compounded it by not identifying Barringer and Raridon, who scored all of the Cardinals' 13 points during that time frame to take the score from 46-41 Augie to 54-46 North Central. That, for all intents and purposes, was the ball game.

Augie did a good job defending Drennan and Rogers, but Barringer in particular killed 'em in the second half. He and Raridon combined for 29 of their 31 points in the second half (all but eight of NCC's second half points).

Although, as Q pointed out, Augie now doesn't control its own destiny as far as getting to the CCIW tournament, with Carthage facing Wheaton and Elmhurst this week, I think the Vikes still have a pretty good shot at the league tourney if they can get their fourth straight win in Bloomington on Saturday. We'll know a little more after Wednesday's games.

[iwumichigander]

Any Augie posters who will be in Naperville tonight------

I'll be between the 2 main sets of doors on the north side of the gym behind the folding chairs at halftime, and look forward to meeting any of you in attendance.

anyone take him up on this sounds ominous

HaHa...I don't think it was meant as a threat, as AndOne went out of his way to come over to the scorer's table at halftime and introduce himself. He didn't take a swing at me or anything, so I think it was meant as a friendly invitation.

Good to meet you AndOne.

As far as the game goes...ouch. A win would've left Augie in pretty good shape as far as the CCIW tournament and potential NCAA at-large, but obviously it's a lot dicier now. After playing very well offensively for the first 31 minutes (54% FG, only 8 TO's), the Vikes went through a disastrous six-minute scoreless stretch and compounded it by not identifying Barringer and Raridon, who scored all of the Cardinals' 13 points during that time frame to take the score from 46-41 Augie to 54-46 North Central. That, for all intents and purposes, was the ball game.

Augie did a good job defending Drennan and Rogers, but Barringer in particular killed 'em in the second half. He and Raridon combined for 29 of their 31 points in the second half (all but eight of NCC's second half points).

Although, as Q pointed out, Augie now doesn't control its own destiny as far as getting to the CCIW tournament, with Carthage facing Wheaton and Elmhurst this week, I think the Vikes still have a pretty good shot at the league tourney if they can get their fourth straight win in Bloomington on Saturday. We'll know a little more after Wednesday's games.

The Vikes do have an advantage with only one regular CCIW game remaining.  It igves them some likely needed rest and a week to prep for IWU.

[Thunder Dutch]

Titan Q,

what is the biggest difference between the 2008 IWU-Wheaton series and this years? Because the teams are for the most part the same, yet last year IWU went 3-0, and this year 0-2. True, Wheaton is more experienced, but most IWU starters are back, so it's not like they have a completely new team. Last year they held Raymond to less points, and even with Kent's one outburst, they still won. What's different this year?

[Gregory Sager]

Titan Q,

what is the biggest difference between the 2008 IWU-Wheaton series and this years? Because the teams are for the most part the same, yet last year IWU went 3-0, and this year 0-2. True, Wheaton is more experienced, but most IWU starters are back, so it's not like they have a completely new team. Last year they held Raymond to less points, and even with Kent's one outburst, they still won. What's different this year?

Gant.

[iwumichigander]

Titan Q,

what is the biggest difference between the 2008 IWU-Wheaton series and this years? Because the teams are for the most part the same, yet last year IWU went 3-0, and this year 0-2. True, Wheaton is more experienced, but most IWU starters are back, so it's not like they have a completely new team. Last year they held Raymond to less points, and even with Kent's one outburst, they still won. What's different this year?

Gant.

Correct Greg - you beat me to the post.

[79jaybird]

For the first time since (IMO) the Washington upset, Elmhurst played a complete game which is/was desperately needed.  Too bad these kids didn't have it against Wheaton, which would have at least kept Elmhurst in the same zip code.    They are most certainly going to need this same effort from Burks on Wed. at NC and then in the CCIW Tournament.

Greg- while I agree NPU was undersized and outplayed, I was really impressed with Roshawn Russell.  I recall mentioning it on the air, that I thought this kid has a nice shot and has great awareness with squeezing passes inside to the Center.    For NPU's sake, I hope they can groom up their 2-3 freshies into something special.

[Mugsy]

For the first time since (IMO) the Washington upset, Elmhurst played a complete game which is/was desperately needed.  Too bad these kids didn't have it against Wheaton, which would have at least kept Elmhurst in the same zip code.    They are most certainly going to need this same effort from Burks on Wed. at NC and then in the CCIW Tournament.

Greg- while I agree NPU was undersized and outplayed, I was really impressed with Roshawn Russell.  I recall mentioning it on the air, that I thought this kid has a nice shot and has great awareness with squeezing passes inside to the Center.    For NPU's sake, I hope they can groom up their 2-3 freshies into something special.

Or stay healthy and eligible to play.