MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[petemcb]

Latest (and final public) Regional rankings:

Midwest Region             Overall Record     In-Region Record
1. Wheaton (Illinois)            22-3                        18-3
2. Washington-St. Louis      22-2                        21-2
3. Elmhurst                          19-6                        19-6
4. Transylvania                    19-5                        16-3
5. Lawrence                         17-6                        17-6
6. Augustana (Illinois)          18-7                        17-7
7. Carroll (Wisconsin)           16-7                        16-7
8. North Central (Illinois)      16-9                        14-7

Could this mean Augustana has a chance to make the D3 tourney if they lose a game this weekend?

Maybe if they lost the second one.....

[Naperick]

I was thinking the same thing.  They probably still need a win Friday night.

[Mr. Ypsi]

IF either Wheaton or Elmhurst wins the AQ, and Transy and Larry do too (Wash U is already AQ), Augie at least gets to the table quite quickly, and then who knows ...?

[andrewmp]

Latest (and final public) Regional rankings:

Midwest Region             Overall Record     In-Region Record
1. Wheaton (Illinois)            22-3                        18-3
2. Washington-St. Louis      22-2                        21-2
3. Elmhurst                          19-6                        19-6
4. Transylvania                    19-5                        16-3
5. Lawrence                         17-6                        17-6
6. Augustana (Illinois)          18-7                        17-7
7. Carroll (Wisconsin)           16-7                        16-7
8. North Central (Illinois)      16-9                        14-7

Could this mean Augustana has a chance to make the D3 tourney if they lose a game this weekend?

This makes an even more interesting situation for the upcoming tourney.  I thought that Wheaton would have a chance to pass Wash U if they won the tourney, but now they already have.  Wins only help Wheaton's standing (and hosting ability), so if they win, no way they fall out of first.
However, it does hurt everyone else trying to get in.  Conversely, someone else winning hurts Wheaton's chance to host.
Do NCC and Augie have a chance if they don't get the automatic?  If Transylvania and Lawerence win their automatics, that would leave only Elmhurst and Carroll still on the board when pool C considerations start (assuming Wheaton wins).  Carroll will sustain another loss (and so would any other team just below that line, St. Norberts, Grinnell, Franklin).  If Augie were to beat Elmhurst and lose to Wheaton, they would have a 2-5 record against higher ranked regional opponents, and a 3-6 overall record against regional opponents.  I don't know if that helps or not, to have 6 of your 8 losses against regionally ranked opponents, but I guess it makes the losses look better.  That leaves them with a .692 regional winning percentage, which i think is a tick better than Wheaton's last year.  If they were to make it, a lot of things would have to break the right way for them to be selected.  However, they would get to the table once Elmhust was selected.  That could be earlier in the process, and give them a chance.  Bubble at best, I think.  Lose to Elmhurst, and it drops to .680.  Even less likely.  Also, OWP is weak and OOWP is ok (0.5349 0.5679 Augustana)  Should impove slightly from the games this weekend though.
NCC, if they beat Wheaton, and lose to either Augie or Elmhurst, will have a .652 regional winning percentage, which will not get it done.  They will hold 2 wins against the first or second seeded team in the region, but I just don't think that will be enough.  Their strength of schedule is high though, and will improve by playing Wheaton (0.6147 0.5563).  One win last week would have put them in a similar position as Augie.
Elmhurst is tricky.  One win and one loss puts them at 20-7, or a .741 regional winning percentage.  Not bad.  They also have wins against Wheaton and Wash U, which is significant.  If they lose to Augie, they are still 19-7, .731.  I think that they are more safe than on the bubble, regardless of what happens this weekend.  Their OWP and OOWP is 0.5786 0.5596, which is decent.
What do others think?

[dansand]

Latest (and final public) Regional rankings:

Midwest Region             Overall Record     In-Region Record
1. Wheaton (Illinois)            22-3                        18-3
2. Washington-St. Louis      22-2                        21-2
3. Elmhurst                          19-6                        19-6
4. Transylvania                    19-5                        16-3
5. Lawrence                         17-6                        17-6
6. Augustana (Illinois)          18-7                        17-7
7. Carroll (Wisconsin)           16-7                        16-7
8. North Central (Illinois)      16-9                        14-7

Could this mean Augustana has a chance to make the D3 tourney if they lose a game this weekend?

Maybe if they lost the second one.....

I'm not convinced Augie has to win the tournament to get in the NCAA's. A win over Elmhurst Friday would put their in-region record within one game of the Bluejays (19-7 to 18-8 if Augie was to lose to Wheaton in the final) and the Vikings would have a 2-to-1 head-to-head advantage. If Elmhurst is a lock, I would think Augie would have at least a fighting chance of getting in. Obviously, a lot depends on how many bids are taken up by upsets in the conference tournaments.

...and before any North Central fans jump on me...I'm not taking it for granted that Wheaton would be Augie's opponent in the finals, it's just that if Augie lost to North Central in the final, they'd have no chance at the NCAA's with NCC, Wheaton and Elmhurst probably already getting in.

[pgkevin]

With regard to deserving players being left off the CCIW all-conference team, my humble opinion is that North Central's Mitch Raridon deserved strong consideration.
In fact, I compared his (conference only) stats to a couple of very good players from Augie, Wessels and Pelton, who did make the team.

Scoring---Raridon 15th, Wessels 18th, Pelton not in the top 30
Rebounding--Raridon tied for 20th, neither Wessels nor Pelton in the top 20
Assists----Raridon tied for 7th, Wessels 13th, Pelton not in the top 15
FG percentage--Raridon 12th, neither Wessels nor Pelton in the top 15
FT percentage---Wessels 2nd, Raridon 4th, Pelton not in the top 15
Steals---Raridon tied for 4th, Pelton tied for 4th, Wessels 6th 
3 point percentage--Pelton 3rd, Raridon tied for 5th, Wessels not in the top 15
3 point shots made--Raridon tied for 7th, Pelton tird for 12th, Wessels not in top 15
Off rebounds---Wessels tied for 15th, Raridon and Pelton not in the top 15
Minutes played--Raridon 3rd, neither Wessels not Pelton in the top 15

In the above 10 statistical areas, Mitch Raridon ranked highest in 7 of the 10, Wessels in 2, and Pelton in 1.

Both Brett Wessels and Matt Pelton may have well deserved all-conference recognition. However, if they did, so too did Mitch Raridon.

I believe Strzemp and Sexauer are the most questionable selections. Again this is not to say they weren't deserving, but I would suggest Raridon was at least, if not more deserving than the other 4 players mentioned above.

As Greg Sager has discussed this reinforces the fact that to the victors go the spoils. However, I think this is an instance in which statistics, and not just speculation, point to the fact that the voting was a bit misguided. Call me crazy. 

You make a strong case, AndOne, and I'm buying it.  Course, I don't get a vote......but I'm buying it.

Victim of reputation I think..more so the stronger reputation of the first two who did make it, and to a lesser extent the lack of his own reputation.  Like it or not, it played a factor

[Titan Q]

I'm not convinced Augie has to win the tournament to get in the NCAA's. A win over Elmhurst Friday would put their in-region record within one game of the Bluejays (19-7 to 18-8 if Augie was to lose to Wheaton in the final) and the Vikings would have a 2-to-1 head-to-head advantage. If Elmhurst is a lock, I would think Augie would have at least a fighting chance of getting in. Obviously, a lot depends on how many bids are taken up by upsets in the conference tournaments.

...and before any North Central fans jump on me...I'm not taking it for granted that Wheaton would be Augie's opponent in the finals, it's just that if Augie lost to North Central in the final, they'd have no chance at the NCAA's with NCC, Wheaton and Elmhurst probably already getting in.

Dan, at 19-7 (.731) in-region, I do think Elmhurst would be a lock when you add in their "in-region results vs regionally ranked teams."  I think their wins over Wash U (1), Wheaton (1), Augustana (1), and North Central (2) are huge.  Augie currently just has the wins over Elmhurst (1) and North Central (1)...but of course could add a win over Elmhurst Friday.  Elmhurst's current placement in the Midwest rankings indicates to me they are in great shape regardless of what happens this weekend.  Their win over Wash U is gold as I see it.

Although Augie would be just one in-region win behind Elmhurst in that scenario above, there is still a pretty substantial difference in in-region winning %.  18-8 (.692) would be very much on the bubble as I see it.

As I have posted before, the Pool C's from last year:

(in-region records)

Amherst (NESCAC), 23-2 (.920)
Centre (SCAC), 20-2 (.909)
Mass-Dartmouth (LEC), 25-3 (.893)
Gettysburg (CC), 20-3 (.870)
Wooster (NCAC), 16-3 (.842)
Brandeis (UAA), 19-4 (.826)
Capital (OAC), 22-5 (.815)
Buena Vista (IIAC), 17-4 (.809)
Va. Wesleyan (ODAC), 21-5 (.808)
Worcester Poly (NEWMAC), 20-5 (.800)
Rochester (UAA), 19-5 (.792)
Bowdoin (NESCAC), 21-6 (.777)
Occidental (SCIAC), 14-4 (.777)
UW-Stevens Point (WIAC), 20-6 (.769)
Wash U (UAA), 16-5 (.762)
Middlebury (NESCAC), 18-6 (.750)
Wheaton (CCIW), 15-7 (.682)

If Augie loses in the conference tournament, the Vikings still have a chance, but would be on the bubble at best...right where Wheaton was last year.  Wheaton made it as the second CCIW team...Augie would be making it as the third this year.  I sense a difference there.

As I look at the schedule, a game that really hurts Augie is the loss to UW-La Crosse.

[dansand]

I'm not convinced Augie has to win the tournament to get in the NCAA's. A win over Elmhurst Friday would put their in-region record within one game of the Bluejays (19-7 to 18-8 if Augie was to lose to Wheaton in the final) and the Vikings would have a 2-to-1 head-to-head advantage. If Elmhurst is a lock, I would think Augie would have at least a fighting chance of getting in. Obviously, a lot depends on how many bids are taken up by upsets in the conference tournaments.

...and before any North Central fans jump on me...I'm not taking it for granted that Wheaton would be Augie's opponent in the finals, it's just that if Augie lost to North Central in the final, they'd have no chance at the NCAA's with NCC, Wheaton and Elmhurst probably already getting in.

Dan, at 19-7 (.731) in-region, I do think Elmhurst would be a lock when you add in their "in-region results vs regionally ranked teams."  I think their wins over Wash U (1), Wheaton (1), Augustana (1), and North Central (2) are huge.  Augie currently just has the wins over Elmhurst (1) and North Central (1).  Elmhurst's current placement in the Midwest rankings indicates to me they are in great shape regardless of what happens this weekend.

Although Augie would be just one in-region win behind Elmhurst in that scenario above, there is still a pretty substantial difference in in-region winning %.  18-8 (.692) would be very much on the bubble as I see it.

As I have posted before, the Pool C's from last year:

(in-region records)

Amherst (NESCAC), 23-2 (.920)
Centre (SCAC), 20-2 (.909)
Mass-Dartmouth (LEC), 25-3 (.893)
Gettysburg (CC), 20-3 (.870)
Wooster (NCAC), 16-3 (.842)
Brandeis (UAA), 19-4 (.826)
Capital (OAC), 22-5 (.815)
Buena Vista (IIAC), 17-4 (.809)
Va. Wesleyan (ODAC), 21-5 (.808)
Worcester Poly (NEWMAC), 20-5 (.800)
Rochester (UAA), 19-5 (.792)
Bowdoin (NESCAC), 21-6 (.777)
Occidental (SCIAC), 14-4 (.777)
UW-Stevens Point (WIAC), 20-6 (.769)
Wash U (UAA), 16-5 (.762)
Middlebury (NESCAC), 18-6 (.750)
Wheaton (CCIW), 15-7 (.682)

If Augie loses in the conference tournament, the Vikings still have a chance, but would be on the bubble at best...right where Wheaton was last year.  Wheaton made it as the second CCIW team...Augie would be making it as the third this year.  I sense a difference there.

As I look at the schedule, a game that really hurts Augie is the loss to UW-La Crosse.

I think we're saying the same thing. Being on the bubble or having a fighting chance at Pool C is better than having to win the Pool A bid.

The LaCrosse loss hurts, but I think what could hurt them more, if they don't make the NCAA's, is what you mentioned earlier--that they've only got two wins over regionally ranked teams (and it'll be one win if North Central loses in the CCIW semis). In that respect, the losses at Elmhurst or at home to Wheaton hurt more than LaCrosse.

That's the difference between this year's record and the last three years. In the last three seasons Augie dominated the top of the conference. Including conference tournament games, they were 19-5 total against the top half of the conference. This year they're 2-4.

[cardinalpride]

With regard to deserving players being left off the CCIW all-conference team, my humble opinion is that North Central's Mitch Raridon deserved strong consideration.
In fact, I compared his (conference only) stats to a couple of very good players from Augie, Wessels and Pelton, who did make the team.

Scoring---Raridon 15th, Wessels 18th, Pelton not in the top 30
Rebounding--Raridon tied for 20th, neither Wessels nor Pelton in the top 20
Assists----Raridon tied for 7th, Wessels 13th, Pelton not in the top 15
FG percentage--Raridon 12th, neither Wessels nor Pelton in the top 15
FT percentage---Wessels 2nd, Raridon 4th, Pelton not in the top 15
Steals---Raridon tied for 4th, Pelton tied for 4th, Wessels 6th 
3 point percentage--Pelton 3rd, Raridon tied for 5th, Wessels not in the top 15
3 point shots made--Raridon tied for 7th, Pelton tird for 12th, Wessels not in top 15
Off rebounds---Wessels tied for 15th, Raridon and Pelton not in the top 15
Minutes played--Raridon 3rd, neither Wessels not Pelton in the top 15

In the above 10 statistical areas, Mitch Raridon ranked highest in 7 of the 10, Wessels in 2, and Pelton in 1.

Both Brett Wessels and Matt Pelton may have well deserved all-conference recognition. However, if they did, so too did Mitch Raridon.

I believe Strzemp and Sexauer are the most questionable selections. Again this is not to say they weren't deserving, but I would suggest Raridon was at least, if not more deserving than the other 4 players mentioned above.

As Greg Sager has discussed this reinforces the fact that to the victors go the spoils. However, I think this is an instance in which statistics, and not just speculation, point to the fact that the voting was a bit misguided. Call me crazy. 

I agree with you AO!  We only can wonder if his name was brought up for voting.  Only the  coachs can bring up the names! Based on the players that made the teams, I believe Mitch was deserving as well.

[74impala]

Congrats to Kent Raymond for another Honor.

http://www.cosida.com/documents/2009/2/25/2008-09MBBAAATeams.pdf

[Late nite]

With regard to deserving players being left off the CCIW all-conference team, my humble opinion is that North Central's Mitch Raridon deserved strong consideration.
In fact, I compared his (conference only) stats to a couple of very good players from Augie, Wessels and Pelton, who did make the team.

Scoring---Raridon 15th, Wessels 18th, Pelton not in the top 30
Rebounding--Raridon tied for 20th, neither Wessels nor Pelton in the top 20
Assists----Raridon tied for 7th, Wessels 13th, Pelton not in the top 15
FG percentage--Raridon 12th, neither Wessels nor Pelton in the top 15
FT percentage---Wessels 2nd, Raridon 4th, Pelton not in the top 15
Steals---Raridon tied for 4th, Pelton tied for 4th, Wessels 6th 
3 point percentage--Pelton 3rd, Raridon tied for 5th, Wessels not in the top 15
3 point shots made--Raridon tied for 7th, Pelton tird for 12th, Wessels not in top 15
Off rebounds---Wessels tied for 15th, Raridon and Pelton not in the top 15
Minutes played--Raridon 3rd, neither Wessels not Pelton in the top 15

In the above 10 statistical areas, Mitch Raridon ranked highest in 7 of the 10, Wessels in 2, and Pelton in 1.

Both Brett Wessels and Matt Pelton may have well deserved all-conference recognition. However, if they did, so too did Mitch Raridon.

I believe Strzemp and Sexauer are the most questionable selections. Again this is not to say they weren't deserving, but I would suggest Raridon was at least, if not more deserving than the other 4 players mentioned above.

As Greg Sager has discussed this reinforces the fact that to the victors go the spoils. However, I think this is an instance in which statistics, and not just speculation, point to the fact that the voting was a bit misguided. Call me crazy. 

AO---I'll buy your argument that Raridon had a better year than either Pelton or Wessels (your prime examples)---I won't disagree---But, in this case, using comparative stats is not an accurate measure---As we all know, you can make stats appear to be anything you want them to be---Raridon played 36 minutes a game in a 7 man rotation---Wessels played 24 and Pelton played 25 in a 10 man rotation---The stats SHOULD be better for the player with 36 minutes ---That's a fact---I agree that he didn't get the recognition he deserved for his perfomance on the court---I don't agree that the stats should be the major tipping point

[dansand]

Congrats to Kent Raymond for another Honor.

http://www.cosida.com/documents/2009/2/25/2008-09MBBAAATeams.pdf

Speaking of Raymond, his third Fred Young Most Outstanding Player Award puts him in some pretty elite company.

Jack Sikma, IWU, 1975, '76, '77
Michael Harper, North Park, 1978, '79, '80
Korey Coon, IWU 1999, 2000, '02 (co-winner each year)

Augie's John Laing ('72 & '73) and Millikin's Jesse Price ('68 & '69) are the only other multiple winners, having won it twice. Price won it as a junior and senior, the first two years it was awarded.

[Gregory Sager]

Congrats to Kent Raymond for another Honor.

http://www.cosida.com/documents/2009/2/25/2008-09MBBAAATeams.pdf

Speaking of Raymond, his third Fred Young Most Outstanding Player Award puts him in some pretty elite company.

Jack Sikma, IWU, 1975, '76, '77
Michael Harper, North Park, 1978, '79, '80
Korey Coon, IWU 1999, 2000, '02 (co-winner each year)

Coon only won it twice, in '99 as a co-winner with Rob Hamann of Wheaton and in '00 as a co-winner with Jason Wiertel of Carthage. The men's history page on the CCIW website needs to be corrected, because Coon's second co-MOP notice has been misplaced. Antoine McDaniel of Carthage was the sole 2002 MOP.

Augie's John Laing ('72 & '73) and Millikin's Jesse Price ('68 & '69) are the only other multiple winners, having won it twice. Price won it as a junior and senior, the first two years it was awarded.

I've always wondered if Price would've won it a third time, if they had given out the award when he was a sophomore.

[markerickson]

Who were the studs in '67 who would have been strongly considered?

Did any poster see Price play?

[Dennis_Prikkel]

Congrats to Kent Raymond for another Honor.

http://www.cosida.com/documents/2009/2/25/2008-09MBBAAATeams.pdf

Speaking of Raymond, his third Fred Young Most Outstanding Player Award puts him in some pretty elite company.

Jack Sikma, IWU, 1975, '76, '77
Michael Harper, North Park, 1978, '79, '80
Korey Coon, IWU 1999, 2000, '02 (co-winner each year)

Augie's John Laing ('72 & '73) and Millikin's Jesse Price ('68 & '69) are the only other multiple winners, having won it twice. Price won it as a junior and senior, the first two years it was awarded.

Price was the acknowledged, but unrewarded, MOP of the league as a freshman and sophomore as well.  In the 44 seasons I've watched the league he's still in my top five players of all time.  He was that good.