MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[thundermike]

There's an interview with Coach Schauer up on the Wheaton website:

http://athletics.wheaton.edu/news/2009/5/5/GEN_TSRschauer.aspx?path=mbball

[Above The Rim]

Not trying to play Mr. Curmudgeon here , but a better question might be will any of these freshmen ever play any significant minutes for IWU?

If Titan Q's analysis is correct, and I have every reason to suspect it is, none of the incoming frosh will dress for varsity games this year, and none will even start for the JV team--as the number 3 & 4 men at each position will prob fill those roles. Additionally, if each of the listed players remains with the team through his senior year and maintains his position on Mr. Q's current depth chart, none of the freshmen would seem to even have a chance to play at all until their junior year, and no chance to start until their senior year. Lastly, if they're not starting before senior year, the chances are high that a player entering school in the fall of '10 or '11 will be a better player and will beat them out for a starting position.   

While you can't argue with their college choice from an educational standpoint, it appears there is a good chance that their academic choice also signals a strong chance that their basketball playing days may have effectively ended or at least have been severly limited.   

Since when are freshmen and sophomores supposed to be handed playing time?  At every great program around the country - which IWU is trying to become again - there are kids who spend a couple years developing (getting bigger, stronger, better defensively, etc) and then have successful JR and SR seasons as members of the varsity rotation.  Dozens of former IWU players come to mind, including:

* Chris Simich - 2 year JV player, 1995 CCIW M.O.P.
* Brent Niebrugge - 2 year JV player, 1998 CCIW M.O.P.
* John Baines - 2 year JV player, member of 1997 national championship team
* Matt Hoder - 2 year JV player, member of 1997 national championship team 
* Todd Wente - 2 year JV player, starter on 2001 Final Four team
* Jim Lehan - 2 year JV player, started on 2003 CCIW title team
* Darius Gant - 2 year JV player, CCIW 1st Teamer in 2008
* Brett Chamernik - 2 year JV player, starter in 2008 and 2009


There are stories like this often at the Wash U's, Hope's, Calvin's, UW-Stevens Point's, Wooster's, Amherst's, etc. - stories of all-conference-caliber kids who waited their turn behind good older players. 

I think you're exaggerating quite a bit here and also making some over-the-top assumptions (no freshman will dress varsity...none will start JV...none will play varsity until their JR year...none has a chance to start until their SR year...that the basketball careers of kids like Kevin Reed and Dan Oswald have basically ended by choosing to attend IWU).  Your logic seems to be that no member of IWU's 2009 recruiting class can pass any older player on the depth chart and any point, and that is pretty extreme.

Finally, note that every incoming freshman at IWU chose to come - over several other good small college options - knowing exactly what the "depth chart" looks like...opposing coaches spend a lot of time working that angle, as would I.  (This obviously was not an easy year for Ron Rose to recruit.)  These 4 kids decided they're comfortable competing for time at IWU and seeing what happens. 

Titan Q--

Please note that I based my observations off the list you compiled and my post was before you explained your positioning of the freshmen to Mr. Ypsi. At the time I had no reason to suspect you had not positioned the newcomers in the positions you expected them to occupy at season's start. Also, I never mentioned anything about freshmen being handed playing time. Fair enough?

Secondly, even given the fact there may be some shifting of positions on the depth chart prior to and during the season, I don't think many of my assumptions are that far fetched. For instance, which of the freshmen other than Reed are likely to even dress for varsity games? Even he may be a stretch. I agree Reed has some possibility of upward movement because I have never been sold on O'Callaghan. I don't think he is as skilled as a 6'7' player should be, and he plays soft. I believe the Titans would be much more formidable with Connolly in the middle. McCullough will be the likely JV starter. The other 3 freshmen won't even start on the JV team.
As far as players not playing significant time until their junior year or possibly not starting until senior year--At the point, Gonzalez won't see any real time until Dwyer graduates and by then he'll be a junior. Kempf, already a junior, will never really play.
At the 2G (AND at SF), you have Schick, already a junior, behind TWO players. As none of these 4 players are seniors, it doesn't appear prospects for him to ever see appreciable time before graduation are very good. Rudnicki at the 2G may see backup minutes as a senior. At the 3, Sutton, already a junior, was invisible last year. Was he injured? At the 4, Sexauer and Lawson will see virtually every minute for the next two years.  That likely means Walker won't play hardly at all until his senior year, and he may be surpassed by Reed. The center position is anybody's guess, but you can be sure there aren't enough minutes there for 3 players. Therefore, its likely either Connolly or McCullough will never see more than a few minutes until at least their 4th year.

So, in summary, I don't think many of my assumptions are that far-fetched. Only 5 guys can play at a time, and the minutes not played by the starters aren't likely to be more than 1 other player at any given position will be seeing.

[Titan Q]

Titan Q--

Please note that I based my observations off the list you compiled and my post was before you explained your positioning of the freshmen to Mr. Ypsi. At the time I had no reason to suspect you had not positioned the newcomers in the positions you expected them to occupy at season's start. Also, I never mentioned anything about freshmen being handed playing time. Fair enough?

Secondly, even given the fact there may be some shifting of positions on the depth chart prior to and during the season, I don't think many of my assumptions are that far fetched. For instance, which of the freshmen other than Reed are likely to even dress for varsity games? Even he may be a stretch. I agree Reed has some possibility of upward movement because I have never been sold on O'Callaghan. I don't think he is as skilled as a 6'7' player should be, and he plays soft. I believe the Titans would be much more formidable with Connolly in the middle. McCullough will be the likely JV starter. The other 3 freshmen won't even start on the JV team.
As far as players not playing significant time until their junior year or possibly not starting until senior year--At the point, Gonzalez won't see any real time until Dwyer graduates and by then he'll be a junior. Kempf, already a junior, will never really play.
At the 2G (AND at SF), you have Schick, already a junior, behind TWO players. As none of these 4 players are seniors, it doesn't appear prospects for him to ever see appreciable time before graduation are very good. Rudnicki at the 2G may see backup minutes as a senior. At the 3, Sutton, already a junior, was invisible last year. Was he injured? At the 4, Sexauer and Lawson will see virtually every minute for the next two years.  That likely means Walker won't play hardly at all until his senior year, and he may be surpassed by Reed. The center position is anybody's guess, but you can be sure there aren't enough minutes there for 3 players. Therefore, its likely either Connolly or McCullough will never see more than a few minutes until at least their 4th year.

So, in summary, I don't think many of my assumptions are that far-fetched. Only 5 guys can play at a time, and the minutes not played by the starters aren't likely to be more than 1 other player at any given position will be seeing.

I have several problem with your assumptions, because...

1) You don't account for current injuries.  Such as:

* Eric McCullough coming up two serious off-season surgeries to repair his hip after missing almost all of last year.
* Eliud Gonzalez coming off March 2009 ACL surgery.
* Josh Sutton being sidelined with various injuries basically all of last season.
* Steve Rudnicki dealing with significant knee problems.

2) You don't account for the possibility of future injuries, or whatever unfortunate things just come up to create playing time opportunities.

3) You seem to be of the opinion that every kid on IWU's roster was recruited.  There are several kids on that depth chart I posted who are "walk-ons" for lack of a better term - kids who were told things like, "We'd love to have you, but you might never play varsity here." 

4) "At the 4, Sexauer and Lawson will see virtually every minute for the next two years"?  Oh really.  Duncan Lawson played 0 total minutes in IWU's final 3 games last season (and was not injured)...and you have him locked into time next year?  There is absolutely no chance another post player can come in and win the time that Lawson didn't even have last year?


I have no idea how many freshman will dress varsity or how many will start on the JV team or whatever.  What I do know is that, a) the players on the roster next year decided to come to IWU knowing there will be a ton of competition for time, b) competition will sort out who gets to play varsity, who gets to play JV, and who falls out of the mix altogether, and c) the best players will play.

[Titan Q]

This blurb is the second mention I've heard of Aaron Garriott possibly ending up at Wheaton...

http://midstatehoops.com/v5/2009/05/03/msh-news-and-notes/
http://www.siue.edu/ATHLETIC/MBB/20082009/garriott.html
http://www.midstatehoops.com/articles/2007/garriottcommits.html

Garriott (Bloomington Central Catholic) is a 6-3 "combo guard" who decided to leave SIU-Edwardsville a few weeks ago.  When I saw him in high school, I thought he'd be a perfect CCIW recruit.  While I think he is in over his head vs average D1 competition, he would be a very good CCIW player -- a guy who could be in the discussion of "best guards in the league" down the road. 

As a freshman at SIU-E he averaged 8.9 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 2.2 assists.  He was 36-121 (.298) from 3 and had an assist to turnover ratio of 0.86 to 1.  He is not really a good enough ball-handler to be a D1 PG, and not really a good enough shooter to be a D1 SG.  At the D3 level though, he can easily play either well.

Here is what Garriott did vs D3 and NAIA teams as a freshman at SIU-E (the Cougars lost to Millikin)...

http://www.siue.edu/ATHLETIC/MBB/20082009/SIUE6.HTM
http://www.siue.edu/ATHLETIC/MBB/20082009/SIUE8.HTM
http://www.siue.edu/ATHLETIC/MBB/20082009/SIUE17.HTM
http://www.siue.edu/ATHLETIC/MBB/20082009/SIUE20.HTM


Garriott was on all of the same small school all-state teams with fellow central Illinois guards Jordan Zimmer (IWU), Zack Boyd (Elmhurst), and Jeremy Pflederer (Wheaton) like these:

http://www.illhoops.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2544&p=27653
http://www.ibsrecruiting.com/ibs-2008-illinois-bo.php
http://www.illinoishighschoolsports.com/ihssallstate/2008IHSSClass1Aallstate.html
http://www.illinoishighschoolsports.com/ihssallstate/2008IHSSClass2Aallstate.html


I think Garriott's CCIW upside would be very similar to theirs (although they are all very different players).  He's not Kent Raymond by any stretch, but would sure help with the post-KR transition.

I've heard from a very reliable source that Aaron Garriott (SIU-Edwardsville, Bloomington Central Catholic) has committed to Wheaton.  Significant addition for the Thunder - my guess is that Garriott steps right in as a starter next year.  He should be a very good CCIW player.

[petemcb]

Word is that Scarlata will be joined by 6'6" Brandon Koontz out of Lake Zurich High School.  If so, that would be a couple of likely high-impact bangers (no pun intended) for Augie.  Can anyone confirm that?  I only saw him play one time, against Prospect High School last season.  He had a very impressive game in the paint, rebounded hard, had a nice drop step move to the basket, and played both ends of the floor with equal intensity.  Any info out there?

[Titan Q]

Word is that Scarlata will be joined by 6'6" Brandon Koontz out of Lake Zurich High School.  If so, that would be a couple of likely high-impact bangers (no pun intended) for Augie.  Can anyone confirm that?  I only saw him play one time, against Prospect High School last season.  He had a very impressive game in the paint, rebounded hard, had a nice drop step move to the basket, and played both ends of the floor with equal intensity.  Any info out there?

Brandon Kunz...

http://basketball.dailyherald.com/story/?id=276981

[dansand]

Word is that Scarlata will be joined by 6'6" Brandon Koontz out of Lake Zurich High School.  If so, that would be a couple of likely high-impact bangers (no pun intended) for Augie.  Can anyone confirm that?  I only saw him play one time, against Prospect High School last season.  He had a very impressive game in the paint, rebounded hard, had a nice drop step move to the basket, and played both ends of the floor with equal intensity.  Any info out there?

Although I haven't seen anything official, I believe that's correct, except it's spelled "Kunz". He's another outstanding prospect. I've heard he chose Augie over a recent scholarship offer from D2 Wayne State (Nebraska), who just hired Paul Combs from UW-Platteville. Kunz set Lake Zurich single-game records for rebounds (23) and blocked shots (10) this year. He averaged 12 points and 10.1 rebounds with 67 blocks.

http://www.pioneerlocal.com/lakezurich/sports/highschools/1378099,lz-kunz-011509-s1.article

[Titan Q]

In terms of big guys, who is Carthage getting?  Guys I know they were on include...

Luke Scarlata, Cicero-Morton (Augie)
Raul Guzman, Cicero-Morton (Benedictine?)
Brandon Kunz, Lake Zurich (Augie)
Kevin Reed, Prospect (IWU)


Carthage getting a good big guy would be very significant based on how good their perimeter is.  Any word?

[Titan Q]

Elmhurst, as usual, has done a nice job on the recruiting trail.  They have a large class coming in - here is who I know for sure they are getting...

* Jordan Fairbairn, transfer from Kishwaukee CC/HS: Neuqua Valley, 6-0, 2G

* D'Ante Foster, Muskegon (MI) Catholic HS, 5-10, PG

* Antonio Little, South Beloit HS, 5-10, PG

* Mike Jackson, Thornwood HS, 6-3, 2G

* Ethan Koehler, Midland HS, 6-4, 3F

* Baile Barnett, Gary (IN) Westside HS, 6-5, 3/4F

* Doug Small, Dee-Mack HS, 6-7, 3F

* Erik Dornfeld, Geneseo HS, 6-7, 4F

* Myles Burton, Libertyville HS, 6-6, 4F

* Matt Kaban, Driscoll Catholic HS, 6-8, C

* Rich Thomas, Reavis HS, 6-8, C

* Christian Dillon, Kaneland HS, 6-7, C

[augiefan]

With so many great seniors graduating this year, the CCIW will be a lot more unpredictable next year. Carthage has the best returning player, but it's a bit of crap shoot as to who the preseason favorite will be. I agree with Q that IWU will be much more competitive next year with virtually everyone returning and with Wheaton, Elmhurst, North Central amd Augie all losing quite a few great DIII players to graduation.

[augiefan]

So Elmhurst is bringing in 12 recruits this year. Sounds like playing time will be a problem for some of those guys.

I like the looks of Augie's class if Kunz is on board. The Vikings really needed the big guys. It also sounds like IWU and Wheaton are going to pull in good talent. What's the word from Carthage, NCC, NPU and Millikin? Someone must know where they stand at this point with recruiting. Their posters have been kind of silent on the recruiting front.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Elmhurst, as usual, has done a nice job on the recruiting trail.  They have a large class coming in - here is who I know for sure they are getting...

* Jordan Fairbairn, transfer from Kishwaukee CC/HS: Neuqua Valley, 6-0, 2G

* D'Ante Foster, Muskegon (MI) Catholic HS, 5-10, PG

* Antonio Little, South Beloit HS, 5-10, PG

* Mike Jackson, Thornwood HS, 6-3, 2G

* Ethan Koehler, Midland HS, 6-4, 3F

* Baile Barnett, Gary (IN) Westside HS, 6-5, 3/4F

* Doug Small, Dee-Mack HS, 6-7, 3F

* Erik Dornfeld, Geneseo HS, 6-7, 4F

* Myles Burton, Libertyville HS, 6-6, 4F

* Matt Kaban, Driscoll Catholic HS, 6-8, C

* Rich Thomas, Reavis HS, 6-8, C

* Christian Dillon, Kaneland HS, 6-7, C

The Jays certainly have a good haul in terms of quantity.  Does anyone have any insights as far as quality?

[Titan Q]

Elmhurst, as usual, has done a nice job on the recruiting trail.  They have a large class coming in - here is who I know for sure they are getting...

* Jordan Fairbairn, transfer from Kishwaukee CC/HS: Neuqua Valley, 6-0, 2G

* D'Ante Foster, Muskegon (MI) Catholic HS, 5-10, PG

* Antonio Little, South Beloit HS, 5-10, PG

* Mike Jackson, Thornwood HS, 6-3, 2G

* Ethan Koehler, Midland HS, 6-4, 3F

* Baile Barnett, Gary (IN) Westside HS, 6-5, 3/4F

* Doug Small, Dee-Mack HS, 6-7, 3F

* Erik Dornfeld, Geneseo HS, 6-7, 4F

* Myles Burton, Libertyville HS, 6-6, 4F

* Matt Kaban, Driscoll Catholic HS, 6-8, C

* Rich Thomas, Reavis HS, 6-8, C

* Christian Dillon, Kaneland HS, 6-7, C

The Jays certainly have a good haul in terms of quantity.  Does anyone have any insights as far as quality?

The top recruits are probably:

1. Jordan Fairbairn - very good chance to start...very athletic and can really shoot it
2. Erik Dornfield - should be a good CCIW big guy in time
3. Baile Barnett - good size at the 3
4. Mike Jackson - a 2 with nice upside
5. Matt Kaban - a freshman Nick Michael
6. Rich Thomas - a very skinny Dirk Nowitzki type

Not sure Elmhurst brought in any future M.O.P. candidates, but certainly a lot of good options to begin filling some huge holes.

Of course, I'm just going off what I overheard at Panera Bread here in Columbia, Mo. over lunch today, so take all of this for what it's worth.

[coebball70]

Please accept my apology if this has been addressed in previous posts as I have been away from the board for several weeks.  Is Ben Panner returning to Wheaton next year?  If so, IMHO Wheaton would be my pre-season CCIW favorite.  Based on Titan Q's excellent recruiting summary, IWU and Carthage would be candidates as well.  This is a very important year for IWU's Coach Rose.  Hopefully, he can prove he can coach as well as he can recruit.  I'm waiting for a JC transfer announcement from Carthage, Coach B is always good for one or two by August 15th.  Less than six months to our favorite time of year!

[Above The Rim]

Titan Q--

Please note that I based my observations off the list you compiled and my post was before you explained your positioning of the freshmen to Mr. Ypsi. At the time I had no reason to suspect you had not positioned the newcomers in the positions you expected them to occupy at season's start. Also, I never mentioned anything about freshmen being handed playing time. Fair enough?

Secondly, even given the fact there may be some shifting of positions on the depth chart prior to and during the season, I don't think many of my assumptions are that far fetched. For instance, which of the freshmen other than Reed are likely to even dress for varsity games? Even he may be a stretch. I agree Reed has some possibility of upward movement because I have never been sold on O'Callaghan. I don't think he is as skilled as a 6'7' player should be, and he plays soft. I believe the Titans would be much more formidable with Connolly in the middle. McCullough will be the likely JV starter. The other 3 freshmen won't even start on the JV team.
As far as players not playing significant time until their junior year or possibly not starting until senior year--At the point, Gonzalez won't see any real time until Dwyer graduates and by then he'll be a junior. Kempf, already a junior, will never really play.
At the 2G (AND at SF), you have Schick, already a junior, behind TWO players. As none of these 4 players are seniors, it doesn't appear prospects for him to ever see appreciable time before graduation are very good. Rudnicki at the 2G may see backup minutes as a senior. At the 3, Sutton, already a junior, was invisible last year. Was he injured? At the 4, Sexauer and Lawson will see virtually every minute for the next two years.  That likely means Walker won't play hardly at all until his senior year, and he may be surpassed by Reed. The center position is anybody's guess, but you can be sure there aren't enough minutes there for 3 players. Therefore, its likely either Connolly or McCullough will never see more than a few minutes until at least their 4th year.

So, in summary, I don't think many of my assumptions are that far-fetched. Only 5 guys can play at a time, and the minutes not played by the starters aren't likely to be more than 1 other player at any given position will be seeing.

I have several problem with your assumptions, because...

1) You don't account for current injuries.  Such as:

* Eric McCullough coming up two serious off-season surgeries to repair his hip after missing almost all of last year.
* Eliud Gonzalez coming off March 2009 ACL surgery.
* Josh Sutton being sidelined with various injuries basically all of last season.
* Steve Rudnicki dealing with significant knee problems.

2) You don't account for the possibility of future injuries, or whatever unfortunate things just come up to create playing time opportunities.

3) You seem to be of the opinion that every kid on IWU's roster was recruited.  There are several kids on that depth chart I posted who are "walk-ons" for lack of a better term - kids who were told things like, "We'd love to have you, but you might never play varsity here." 

4) "At the 4, Sexauer and Lawson will see virtually every minute for the next two years"?  Oh really.  Duncan Lawson played 0 total minutes in IWU's final 3 games last season (and was not injured)...and you have him locked into time next year?  There is absolutely no chance another post player can come in and win the time that Lawson didn't even have last year?


I have no idea how many freshman will dress varsity or how many will start on the JV team or whatever.  What I do know is that, a) the players on the roster next year decided to come to IWU knowing there will be a ton of competition for time, b) competition will sort out who gets to play varsity, who gets to play JV, and who falls out of the mix altogether, and c) the best players will play.

I also didn't take into consideration the possibility of a meteor striking one of the IWU dorms where some of the team members live! 
I probably missed a couple of other possibilities as well.   

I don't think you plan for injuries and thus can't project a depth chart or any possible future playing time based on something that may or may not happen. You have to go on the info and history you have at hand, which is what I did.

If Lawson doesn't get the minutes Sexauer doesn't, then Rose was off in his analysis of his ability.