MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Titan Q]

I've slightly adjusted my 2010 CCIW preseason rankings (moved MU up and moved Elmhurst and NCC down).

1. Carthage
2. Illinois Wesleyan
3. Wheaton
4. Augustana
5. North Park
6. Millikin
7. Elmhurst
8. North Central


I reserve the right to continue to waffle up until opening day.

[Titan Q]

What is the timeframe for the first national poll and what CCIW teams might be included?

I have to turn in my preseason poll ballot Monday (10/19).  Without having looked at the national picture in enough detail yet, I'm really struggling to identify any CCIW "Top 25" teams at this point.  I mean, who do you vote for?

* Carthage, because they have quite possibly the best player in Division III (but a lot of holes)?
* IWU, based on potential?  (Would be different if IWU had a decent conference season last year.)
* Wheaton...without Raymond?
* Augustana, just because the Vikings are always good?


I'm pretty sure the CCIW has at least 2 "Top 25" teams, but I don't think any of us can really identify who those are.

[John Gleich]

I'm pretty sure the CCIW has at least 2 "Top 25" teams, but I don't think any of us can really identify who those are.

...And the two teams that will end up playing at a "Top 25" level may not have actually matured to that level yet, either.  They may simply not be there yet.

Preseason polls are always difficult... do you go off of what the coaches say?  Off of last year's results?  Off of perceived potential?

For those of us who have done the "Poster's Poll," we've run into this difficulty early... to the point that it isn't even started until some things figure themselves out in the first few months of the season and it isn't even started until the new year!

I don't envy the position of having to put your neck out and guess (educated guess though it may be) and rank the teams.  I commend you, Bob, for how you many times have put your picks out for scrutiny. 

[Titan Q]

I'm pretty sure the CCIW has at least 2 "Top 25" teams, but I don't think any of us can really identify who those are.

...And the two teams that will end up playing at a "Top 25" level may not have actually matured to that level yet, either.  They may simply not be there yet.

Preseason polls are always difficult... do you go off of what the coaches say?  Off of last year's results?  Off of perceived potential?

For those of us who have done the "Poster's Poll," we've run into this difficulty early... to the point that it isn't even started until some things figure themselves out in the first few months of the season and it isn't even started until the new year!

I don't envy the position of having to put your neck out and guess (educated guess though it may be) and rank the teams.  I commend you, Bob, for how you many times have put your picks out for scrutiny.  

Thanks Point.  It is a very inexact science, unfortunately.  Pat's voters really do a good job of trying to sort things out as best as possible...but the preseason poll is always really though.

For me, I basically look at two things: 1) How did you do last year?, and 2) Who did you lose?  (Every now and then a new addition might factor in - a D1 transfer maybe - but really not that often.)   For example, I had Wheaton #2 in my final 2009 ballot...but Wheaton lost one of the best players in Division III (Kent Raymond) and a very good post (Andy Wiele).  I'm not sure I can vote for Wheaton in the 2009-10 preseason Top 25.  They may end up being a Top 25 team, but I'd like to see some actual game results first.  On the flip side is Illinois Wesleyan - the Titans return everybody, but after giong 8-3 in the non-conference last year, they went 5-9 in the CCIW.  Can't really vote for IWU due to how poorly they did in the league last year.  

As with any preseason poll, I have ended up with a small group of teams I feel very strongly about, then a second tier I think belong but in what order, I have no idea, and then 2-3 flyers I feel strongly about (but probably aren't on a lot of radars).  The teams I feel the strongest about for now, after an initial look, are (not really in order, except for #1):

Wash U (clear cut #1)
John Carroll
Franklin & Marshall
Wooster
Guilford
Richard Stockton
Cal Lutheran
DeSales


The tough part will be slotting the next 17.  I'm starting to realize that there is a ton of parity in most Division III conferences this year.  Just look at the CCIW and WIAC - who are the favorites?  Hope vs Calvin, who's going to be better?  There is a lot of that across the country.  A lof of years, at least going in, the picture is much more clear across leagues.

[Gregory Sager]

The CCIW website will host an online chat with the league's head coaches on both the men's side and the women's side on Wednesday, October 28. The women's coaches go first, followed by the men's coaches, with the preseason poll of the sport in question announced at the conclusion of that sport's chat. The league did the same thing with the football head coaches this fall, and it was pretty interesting. It's as close as we're ever likely to come to the preseason press conferences that D1 leagues hold.

I look forward to watching Gonzales, especially since Antonio Stevens is not on the roster.  Greg:  who is the best defender among the guards?

Wow, that's hard to say, Mark. NPU's defense was pathetic at every position last season. I mean, how does a team manage to surrender 79.5 points per game in league play -- especially when only one team (Elmhurst) managed to average better than 73 points on offense? The Vikings were so bad on D that it's tough to sort out someone and say, "Well, this guy was a little less pathetic than everybody else."

I've only seen him in one open gym, but I've heard good things about newcomer Davone Robinson's defense. We'll see, I guess.

The Scholle recruit is the nephew of Tom Scholle who competed on North Park's wrestling team with me.

Yeah, I was going to ask you if he was any relation to Tom Scholle.

I'm pretty sure the CCIW has at least 2 "Top 25" teams, but I don't think any of us can really identify who those are.

...And the two teams that will end up playing at a "Top 25" level may not have actually matured to that level yet, either.  They may simply not be there yet.

I think that that's very likely the scenario we're looking at this year. I hate to keep sounding like a broken record on the subject of the weakness of this year's senior class, but I think that it'll be one thing that holds back a lot of CCIW teams early. I would look for some surprising upsets in November and early December, losses to teams that you wouldn't expect would be up to the task of beating a CCIW team. It might take until January before a CCIW team or two really begins to assert itself and take hold of the reins.

[Hardwood]

IWU top 15, Carthage & Wheaton top 20 early on.  Look for Augustana to break into the top 20 by mid-season by doing well with a tough non conference schedule.

[Dennis_Prikkel]

IWU top 15, Carthage & Wheaton top 20 early on.  Look for Augustana to break into the top 20 by mid-season by doing well with a tough non conference schedule.

OY - another green weenie hurd from.

[CCIWFAN3]

Ya think?  2nd to last in CCIW last year and now they are top 15 in country.  Wow...they must have practiced all summer long.

I know...all the other teams lost their best player and they have EXPERIENCE now.

[Hardwood]

Ya think?  2nd to last in CCIW last year and now they are top 15 in country.  Wow...they must have practiced all summer long.

I know...all the other teams lost their best player and they have EXPERIENCE now.

CCIWfan3 - What do you think?

[CCIWFAN3]

Truthfully...the top 4 in CCIW are up for grabs....Augie, Carthage, IWU, Wheaton.  There might even be a couple sleepers in Millikin and N.P.  I cant see any of them being ranked ....unless IWU or Wheaton beat WashU during pre conference play.  That will automatically put them in top 20. IWU and Wheaton both play Washu early.   

[AndOne]

IWU top 15, Carthage & Wheaton top 20 early on.  Look for Augustana to break into the top 20 by mid-season by doing well with a tough non conference schedule.

I don't think you take an IWU team that was one game over .500 for the year, and 5-9 in the conference last year and put them in the top 15 for this preseason. Who exactly do they have this year that wasn't there last year that will make that much of a difference, at least to begin the year? This is a team that was picked to finish 4th last year and wound up 7th. They have a TON of potential, but that was supposed to be a major factor in their improvement last year over 07-08. Rather than developing that potential to the expected degree last season, they regressed. Top 15--maybe at the end of the season, but certainly not now.

Carthage in the top 20 now. Get real. They have DIII all-world Stevie D and another very good shooter, but their lack of a proven big reflects a team that doesn't remotely resemble one of the 20 best teams in the country.  

Wheaton has a strong starting 5, but I don't think they can play all 40 minutes every night. Once you get to the Thunder bench, you expose this teams weakness pretty quickly. If 1 or 2 subs step up, I think Wheaton has more top 20 potential than either IWU or Carthage.

I actually think Augie might have the best all-around talent, and may emerge as the CCIW's best by the end of the season. They have a very deep and strong frontcourt when you combine the starters and subs there. This is a team that will go as far as their guard play takes them. If they get good play from the backcourt, I think they are the team to beat.

NPU is the dark horse here folks. If they can translate their athleticism and quickness into a strong defensive presence they could go a long way. They also need one other ingredient to be as successful as they might become. That is strong leadership from Nick Williams who should be one of the league's, if not the region's, premier players. I don't recall if grades or injury caused him some difficulty at one point last season. However, when he returned to action, he seemed almost disinterested. His mind didn't seem to be on the game. The look on his face told the story of a terrific player whose thoughts were elsewhere. If he has come out of last season's funk, and plays like he is capable of, NPU could take a giant step up from last season's debacle.

Its too early to accurately assess NCC, Elmhurst, and Millikin. NCC and EC certainly have the coaching to get the most out of their talent. Who knows what about MU as they have a rather silent presence here. I think EC basically met expectations last year, while NCC and Millikin exceeded them, especially as compared to preseason picks.

[CCIWFAN3]

AndOne....The most accurate non biased evaluation of the cciw I've seen yet.   Great job.  Look out though...the Titan guys will be out soon, and jumping all over this one.

[AndOne]

AndOne....The most accurate non biased evaluation of the cciw I've seen yet.   Great job.  Look out though...the Titan guys will be out soon, and jumping all over this one.

Thank you CCIW--

The "Titan guys" can jump over the frickin' moon, but facts are facts. And, you can look it up.    
Actually, I believe at least most Titan backers will respect this analysis. IWU did lose Darius Gant after the 07-08 campaign, but should have had enough collective firepower to make up for the production he took with him. The simple fact is that they didn't, and several of their players are not yet where I believe both Coach Rose, and most Titan backers felt they would be by this stage in their careers. I have no problem agreeing with the statement that if the Titans do play up to their potential, they could turn into a hell of a good team. However, I suspect that will be more likely to happen in 2010-11 than this season.

I expect I might also see a little push back from some CC and WC backers. Especially at this point in the season, nobody has all the right answers.  

[Gregory Sager]

Truthfully...the top 4 in CCIW are up for grabs....Augie, Carthage, IWU, Wheaton.  There might even be a couple sleepers in Millikin and N.P.  I cant see any of them being ranked ....unless IWU or Wheaton beat WashU during pre conference play.  That will automatically put them in top 20. IWU and Wheaton both play Washu early.

Since this isn't going to be the last time that Wash U is referenced on CCIW Chat as a sort of litmus test for would-be CCIW contenders, here's the sked of CCIW vs. Wash U games:

Nov. 22, Wash U @ IWU
Dec. 9, Wheaton @ Wash U
Dec. 12, Augustana @ Wash U

The game on November 22 will be the championship game of Illinois Wesleyan's home tournament. There's no point in pretending that this game won't happen, since we all know that in November 21's opening-round games Ohio Wesleyan isn't going to beat Wash U and there is no way in the world that the Fighting Chefs of Johnson & Wales are going to make Ron Rose eat his liver.

We shouldn't begrudge Hardwood his say; if he wants to claim that IWU is going to be a Top 15 team out of the gate, that's his right. Personally, though, I think that the smart thing to do is to lay low as far as predicting great things for your team is concerned, especially in a year in which every team in the league seems to be missing some key ingredient at the moment. I'm thoroughly happy that nobody is picking NPU to be anything more than a sleeper, and I'd be even happier if NPU wasn't even being awarded that most modest of compliments.

I actually think Augie might have the best all-around talent, and may emerge as the CCIW's best by the end of the season. They have a very deep and strong frontcourt when you combine the starters and subs there. This is a team that will go as far as their guard play takes them. If they get good play from the backcourt, I think they are the team to beat.

I shy away from making preseason picks, but if you put a gun to my head and forced me to pick a favorite I'd pick Augie. If that sounds like a pretty weak endorsement, it's because it is a pretty weak endorsement. There's nobody in the CCIW who even comes close to being a clear-cut favorite this year. As for Augie's guard play, I actually think that the Doggies have one of the stronger backcourt presences in the league in senior co-captain Matt Pelton. I think that the big question is who is going to fill the 2 and 3 spots. Avallone? DeSimone? Crogaert? Wessels Part III? Or players to be named later?

NPU is the dark horse here folks. If they can translate their athleticism and quickness into a strong defensive presence they could go a long way.

Hoo boy, that is one gigantic "if."

Who knows what about MU as they have a rather silent presence here.

I still like Millikin as the dark horse, because of all that senior leadership. As I said last week, nobody else in the league is going to start more than two seniors, unless Bosko trots out Williams at center alongside Tolo and Fendley, which doesn't strike me as a given, or returns to the confusing Cody Hilton experiment of last year. Millikin? It's possible, and it seems quite likely, that Marc Smith will go with five senior starters. That's huge. As you said, though, nobody posts in here from the Millikin camp, so the Big Blue flies under the radar simply by virtue of the fact that nobody brings them up in conversation.

I expect I might also see a little push back from some CC and WC backers. Especially at this point in the season, nobody has all the right answers.

That's for sure, and that's one of the things that makes this particular preseason so exciting.

I don't know if you'll get much pushback from Carthage and Wheaton fans, though. All of the Carthage fans who posted here last season seemed to have a pretty realistic view of their team's inside game, aside from perhaps seeing a bit more potential in Adam Stuart than he actually had. And I'd be surprised if the Wheaties challenged you on your assertion that their boys have what appears to be a weak bench. The loss of Jeremy Pflederer looms pretty large.

[Gregory Sager]

As I said before, I think it's quite likely that the CCIW could get knocked down a few pegs in the early going, mostly because almost the entire league is starting fairly young lineups. With that in mind, here's the games over the first three weeks of the season that I think have DANGER! written all over them:

Nov. 15	NPU @ MSOE
Nov. 15	Transylvania @ Carthage
Nov. 18	Carroll @ NPU
Nov. 20	UW-Whitewater @ Carthage
Nov. 21	Millikin @ Franklin
Nov. 21	UW-Platteville @ Carthage
Nov. 21	Elmhurst @ St. Norbert
Nov. 21	Ohio Northern @ Wheaton*
Nov. 22	Washington (MO) @ IWU*
Nov. 24	NCC @ Aurora
Nov. 28	Augustana @ Anderson
Dec. 2	NCC @ Albion
Dec. 2	Chicago @ Wheaton
Dec. 4	Carthage vs, Calvin (@ Hope)
Dec. 4	Wheaton @ Hope
Dec. 5	Carthage @ Hope
Dec. 5	Wheaton vs. Calvin (@ Hope)
Dec. 5	IWU @ Chicago

* likely tourney matchups