MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Titan Q]

What will serve as Augie's bench will be the strongest group of subs in the CCIW.

I think it's much too early to make that statement.  Augie's bench will be strong, as always - Coach G & Co always recruit well.  But I'm just thinking about the team I'm most familiar with, and if IWU comes off the bench with Jordan Zimmer (best shooter in the CCIW?), Sean Dwyer (best backup PG in the CCIW?), 6-9 Ryan Connolly, Matt Schick, and Duncan Lawson, that's a pretty darn good bench.

[Dennis_Prikkel]

The question asked had to do with why Augustana was picked so high in this year's poll.

My answer: recent coaching reputation.  Augustana has been the most successful program in the league over the last five or six years. 

Please don't read anything else in to that answer to that question.

This is a coaches league.  Good coaches/programs don't rebuild - they reload.

dgp

[CCIWFAN3]

Dennis...I agree with your statement.."Augustana has been the most successful program in the league over the last five or six years."   But I  don't understand it. They play more players and sub 5 for 5 more than any other coach I've seen.  Normally that doesn't work...but I can't argue with Coach G.'s success rate. 

Coaches always get blamed if they have talent and not a successful season. Sometimes the chemistry just isn't there, but on the other hand....recruit the right players that you feel will develop that chemsitry.  Also, sometimes too much depth can be bad thing:)

[Gregory Sager]

Most importantly, note the success of the CCIW coaches in picking the outright winner the last 10 years:


2009: Wheaton
2008: Augustana
2007: North Central (Augustana)
2006: IWU* (Augustana)
2005: IWU*
2004: Augustana* (IWU)
2003: Carthage (Carthage/IWU/Augie)
2002: Carthage
2001: Carthage* (Elmhurst)
2000: Wheaton (Carthage)

* = unanimous pick


Just 4 correct out of 10...and only 1 of the 4 unanimous picks went on to win.

Believe it or not, this constitutes a hot streak on the part of the coaches. There was one 17-year stretch in the '80s and '90s when the coaches only guessed the eventual champion correctly four times.

The bottom line is that CCIW head basketball coaches, as a group, do not have the gift of prophecy.

The biggest surprise for me was seeing NPU at #8, based on their returning talent.  I guess after 0-14 though, the Vikings will have to earn their respect.

That's putting it mildly. It's one thing to be picked to finish last; after all, every year somebody's gotta bring up the rear in the coaches poll. But it's another thing entirely to be picked last when you have four returning starters and almost your entire bench from the year before, plus a couple of transfers of whom it is public knowledge that they'll step right into your rotation -- while at least two other teams in the league were massively gutted by graduation.

Not to be inflammatory, but this preseason poll is a slap in the face of North Park. It's hard to look at it in any other way than saying: a) your returning players just aren't all that good, so it doesn't matter how many of them are back and how much personnel (and who) the other teams have lost; b) your coach can't coach his way out of a wet paper bag; or c) both.

In other words, it's not a "you've lost too much, and now you have to rebuild" eighth-place prediction. It's a "you stink, plain and simple" eighth-place prediction. And this can only work to NPU's advantage. This poll gives the Vikings the chance to go through the season with a big chip on their collective shoulder. As bulletin-board material goes, this is Paul Brenegan's dream come true.

Dennis...I agree with your statement.."Augustana has been the most successful program in the league over the last five or six years."   But I  don't understand it. They play more players and sub 5 for 5 more than any other coach I've seen.  Normally that doesn't work...but I can't argue with Coach G.'s success rate.  

Coaches always get blamed if they have talent and not a successful season. Sometimes the chemistry just isn't there, but on the other hand....recruit the right players that you feel will develop that chemsitry.  Also, sometimes too much depth can be bad thing:)

FAN3, if there's one thing that I've learned in my years of watching basketball, it's that there's more than one way to skin a cat. I don't see one specific formula as being the hands-down, sure-fire best way to produce a winning basketball team.  I've seen teams win with the Augustana formula that didn't wear navy blue and gold. And we've certainly seen Augie teams win with the current formula, so why argue with Grey's success? What he does, works. The proof is in the pudding.

If you're recruited to Augie, you know that you're going to get less playing time than you would elsewhere, because Grey plays a deeper rotation than do other local D3 coaches. You know that your offensive numbers probably won't be that pretty, because in addition to less playing time you will be asked told to expend a great deal more of your energy on defense than you would elsewhere. Too much depth isn't a bad thing if you're Grey Giovanine, because depth is how you make that defense-oriented system work.

Speaking of coaches, this was a breath of fresh air in yesterday's CCIW coaches online chat:

Honestly I don't know what to expect for this team. Certainly with four experienced players returning from a very good team a year ago and the addition of a Division I transfer there is reason for optimism. However, if I am candid, this team has not shown the day in and day out commitment to practice at the intensity level necessary to compete in this league. This league shows no mercy. You bring it every night or you lose. I could pontificate about all sorts of things regarding this team but unless we figure out how to practice appropriately it will just be rhetoric.

Mike Schauer, who is only two weeks into his first preseason as the head coach of Wheaton, used the online chat as a forum to call out his players for not working hard enough in practice. I think he's sending a signal to them that, just because his ex-Marine predecessor has retired, they won't be allowed to slack off one bit. Kudos to Mike for that.

[markerickson]

Thanks for the ongoing research regarding coaches' poll, returning players, etc.

I am not surprised by NP being slotted eighth after a miserable season that contained too many injuries, two academic casualties, and feeble defensive guard play.

I highly doubt that Wheaton will win the conference.  I'll go with Augie, but I wonder what is the highest number of conference losses suffered by the CCIW conference winner?  Outright and tied?

[Hardwood]

If you're recruited to Augie, you know that you're going to get less playing time than you would elsewhere, because Grey plays a deeper rotation than do other local D3 coaches. You know that your offensive numbers probably won't be that pretty, because in addition to less playing time you will be asked told to expend a great deal more of your energy on defense than you would elsewhere. Too much depth isn't a bad thing if you're Grey Giovanine, because depth is how you make that defense-oriented system work.

Interesting point...but the fact that a team plays ten deep probably does mean a player gets less time per game but maybe involved in more game over four years.

(modified by GS for formatting)

[CCIWFAN3]

Augustana does sub a lot but...their STUDS play close to 30 minutes/game.

[CCIWFAN3]

1-4 will depend on how healthy and injury free the teams stay throughout the season.  A couple teams aren't as deep but have a real powerful starting 5.  Depth could and could not be a factor in this league.  It just depends. 

[AndOne]

What will serve as Augie's bench will be the strongest group of subs in the CCIW.

I think it's much too early to make that statement.  Augie's bench will be strong, as always - Coach G & Co always recruit well.  But I'm just thinking about the team I'm most familiar with, and if IWU comes off the bench with Jordan Zimmer (best shooter in the CCIW?), Sean Dwyer (best backup PG in the CCIW?), 6-9 Ryan Connolly, Matt Schick, and Duncan Lawson, that's a pretty darn good bench.

Bob---

Upon further consideration, I must say I believe you are correct. The Wesleyan bench should rival Augie's especially in terms of playing experience. I think many of Augie's primary bench players will be newcomers without as much experience as most of the players you mentioned above. I also think North Park's bench will be a strength as they seem to have a lot of interchangeable parts, and there prob won't be much of a drop off in production when they insert subs.   

[Titan Q]

What will serve as Augie's bench will be the strongest group of subs in the CCIW.

I think it's much too early to make that statement.  Augie's bench will be strong, as always - Coach G & Co always recruit well.  But I'm just thinking about the team I'm most familiar with, and if IWU comes off the bench with Jordan Zimmer (best shooter in the CCIW?), Sean Dwyer (best backup PG in the CCIW?), 6-9 Ryan Connolly, Matt Schick, and Duncan Lawson, that's a pretty darn good bench.

Bob---

Upon further consideration, I must say I believe you are correct. The Wesleyan bench should rival Augie's especially in terms of playing experience. I think many of Augie's primary bench players will be newcomers without as much experience as most of the players you mentioned above. I also think North Park's bench will be a strength as they seem to have a lot of interchangeable parts, and there prob won't be much of a drop off in production when they insert subs.    

I'm confident in a couple things regarding this IWU team.  The Titans...

...should have good starters at all 5 positions.  
...should have good depth (at 2 or 3 spots, there isn't even much dropoff when the sub comes in).

Two very big questions for me though:

1) Can this team defend?  Last year in 14 CCIW games, the Titans scored the second most points per game (72.9), but gave up the second most (77.6).  77.6 per game is just a ridiculously bad number.  You almost have to be shaving points to allow 77.6 points per game!  Are the boys in green ready to commit to defending, or not?

2) Will a "go-to" guy emerge?  Going into the season, it's hard for me to identify who IWU's best player is.  I know the Titans have a bunch of good players, but between Doug Sexauer, Travis Rosenkranz, Sean Johnson, and John Koschnitzky, I'm not sure there is yet a "I want the ball when we need a big basket" guy.  In my opinion, someone has to step forward in that role by CCIW time.  Any of the guys listed above are capable (Jordan Zimmer is probably a year away from being capable of being that type of player), but will it happen?  


Huge questions for sure.

[Gregory Sager]

I highly doubt that Wheaton will win the conference.  I'll go with Augie, but I wonder what is the highest number of conference losses suffered by the CCIW conference winner?  Outright and tied?

On two separate occasions the CCIW champion(s) finished 12-4:

* 1970-71, when Augustana and Illinois Wesleyan tied for the title; and
* 1982-83, when Millikin won the title outright (that was the infamous season in which four teams -- Augustana, Illinois Wesleyan, North Central, and North Park -- tied for second with 11-5 records).

But that was during the Carroll era, of course, when CCIW teams played a 16-game double round-robin. Since the Pioneers defected to the MWC following the 1991-92 season and everyone accordingly dropped down to a 14-game double round-robin, the league's champion or champions have either finished 13-1, 12-2, or 11-3, without exception. Eight times during that span it's been 11-3, including each of the last four seasons, with one of those eight being the three-way co-championship of 2002-03 shared by Augustana, Carthage, and Illinois Wesleyan.

Looking at that current streak of four straight 11-3 championships -- and the fact that, since the lopsided days of the mid-'90s when the CCIW champ went 13-1 four years in a row, we've only had one 13-1 CCIW titleist over the past eleven seasons (Carthage in 2001-02) -- reminds me of how on-target Bosko Djurickovic was in Wednesday's online coaches chat when he said that the CCIW is more top-to-bottom competitive now than it's ever been. Not only does a perfect 14-0 season seem to be a mirage, a 13-1 season looks like a pipe dream every year as well. The CCIW is so competitive now that 11-3 champions seem to be the norm.

[BlueJay21]

Elmhurst roster is now up:

http://www.elmhurstbluejays.com/roster.aspx?path=mbball

Along with a brand new athletic website:

http://www.elmhurstbluejays.com/index.aspx

[markerickson]

I'll wager the proverbial plug nickel that this year is different.  I believe the conference winner will have at least four conference losses, and a tie-breaker will happen at five losses.  Truly, I believe the conference can be won with five losses this year.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I'll wager the proverbial plug nickel that this year is different.  I believe the conference winner will have at least four conference losses, and a tie-breaker will happen at five losses.  Truly, I believe the conference can be won with five losses this year.

I made that 'bet' 2-3 years ago - didn't happen.

Someone always emerges; some years it is just a mystery who someone is.

Of course, that is why the season is so much fun.

[Still, if it is gonna happen, this might be the year - I'm not poo-pooing your 'belief'! ]

We may know more by New Year's - then again, we may not (see IWU 2006)!

[wheaton.thunder]

I highly doubt that Wheaton will win the conference.

I am going to do something on this chat that I never thought I would have to do and agree with someone against Wheaton. Wheaton's only REAL asset this season is Panner. I think that day in and day out he is the only player giving 100 percent of himself to the team goals. There would be no other reason to play as a 5th year if not to compete at the highest level.

"However, if I am candid, this team has not shown the day in and day out commitment to practice at the intensity level necessary to compete in this league. This league shows no mercy. You bring it every night or you lose." Mike Schauer

I fear that this is more the reality and it will be immediately obvious when the season begins. I had more optimism for the 2005-06 season than I do for this one. Still I love CCIW Basketball and it will still be a wild ride to enjoy watching and following.