MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Gregory Sager]

They had incredible graduation losses, but I still suspect WashU will eventually make the tourney (and perhaps even the top 25).

Neither outcome is as likely as you make it sound, Chuck. The Bears are currently 2-3 (2-2 in region), and with likely losses coming up to Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan (and a doesn't-count contest with Tsinghua University of China this coming Friday night), they'll probably head into conference play with a 5-5 record (5-4 in region). Even in a down year for the UAA, a team that comes into that league already sporting a 5-5 record is not a team that's going to make it back into the Top 25. Even if the Bears pull themselves up by the bootstraps and fulfill expectations by winning the UAA with an 11-3 mark, that leaves them 16-8 at the end of the regular season -- and 16-8 won't get you into the Top 25. And making the tourney, of course, becomes a dicey proposition when you enter conference play with a 5-4 in-region record already under your belt. It would give the Bears very little margin for error in terms of possibly garnering a Pool C berth should they need one.

[Gregory Sager]

The CCIW went 4-1 tonight:

Millikin (1-3) got off the schneid with a 66-50 home win over RMC-Springfield:

http://www.millikin.edu/SITES/ATHLETICS/MBASKETBALL/Pages/2010-11MillikinStatistics.aspx

It wasn't pretty, but Augie (4-0) managed to top Monmouth on the home floor of the Fighting Scots, 66-59:

http://www.monm.edu/athletics/varsity/m-basketball/result.aspx/?Channel=%2fChannels%2fSports&WorkflowItemID=d13c420f-3d88-4970-bfa6-cb996b409d60

Wheaton (4-1) dominated the second stanza and blew open what had been a close game in the first half, shooting a torrid 66% from the field for the game in slaughtering Chicago at the Ratner Center, 95-67:

http://athletics.uchicago.edu/mensbasketball/whtn-ucm.htm

And, as previously mentioned, North Central (2-4) outlasted Albion in Naperville, to the tune of 72-64:

http://www.northcentralcardinals.com/custompages/MBK/mbk1011/Mbk06.htm

The lone loss was no surprise, as Elmhurst (0-4) dropped an 88-76 decision to a pretty good Olivet team, over on the other side of the big water:

http://www.olivetcollege.edu/athletics/mbasketball/stats/1011/1201olel.htm

That makes the CCIW 6-1 for the week thus far, which is certainly not bad. Bob, I think you can come in off the ledge now.

[Mr. Ypsi]

They had incredible graduation losses, but I still suspect WashU will eventually make the tourney (and perhaps even the top 25).

Neither outcome is as likely as you make it sound, Chuck. The Bears are currently 2-3 (2-2 in region), and with likely losses coming up to Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan (and a doesn't-count contest with Tsinghua University of China this coming Friday night), they'll probably head into conference play with a 5-5 record (5-4 in region). Even in a down year for the UAA, a team that comes into that league already sporting a 5-5 record is not a team that's going to make it back into the Top 25. Even if the Bears pull themselves up by the bootstraps and fulfill expectations by winning the UAA with an 11-3 mark, that leaves them 16-8 at the end of the regular season -- and 16-8 won't get you into the Top 25. And making the tourney, of course, becomes a dicey proposition when you enter conference play with a 5-4 in-region record already under your belt. It would give the Bears very little margin for error in terms of possibly garnering a Pool C berth should they need one.

Greg, what you say is quite correct (and while I may pick Wheaton over WashU, I don't think it is a done deal), but we might have a different definition of terms.  I said I 'suspect' they will [both tourney and top 25].  I don't know how likely you thought I was saying, but [and of course this is WAY premature on the season] I'll say 60% on the tourney, 45% on the top 25 (higher if they beat Wheaton).

[Mr. Ypsi]

Two incredible players with similar names (I always double-check to make sure I'm not using the wrong name ).

I wonder if anyone here has seen both Wheaton's Tim McCrary and Olivet's Michael McClary and can compare them.

[If it weren't for a certain coach's son in Kenosha, they might well both be conference MVPs.]

[Gregory Sager]

You're right, you're far too premature with your predictions. And the facts at hand indicate that both of your percentages re: Wash U making the tourney and the Top 25 are too high.

I would never use the term "done deal" to describe the likelihood of Wheaton beating Wash U this year, Chuck, even though the game will be played in DuPage County rather than the Gateway City. Still, you might want to ask UWW head coach Pat Miller or Chicago head coach Mike McGrath how they feel about the 2010-11 edition of Wheaton before you go giving your famous odds in favor of the Bears.

[Mr. Ypsi]

You're right, you're far too premature with your predictions. And the facts at hand indicate that both of your percentages re: Wash U making the tourney and the Top 25 are too high.

I would never use the term "done deal" to describe the likelihood of Wheaton beating Wash U this year, Chuck, even though the game will be played in DuPage County rather than the Gateway City. Still, you might want to ask UWW head coach Pat Miller or Chicago head coach Mike McGrath how they feel about the 2010-11 edition of Wheaton before you go giving your famous odds in favor of the Bears.

Sure, but am I also allowed to ask Brad Nadborne how he feels?

Sorry, but you give snarky, you get snarky.

[Gregory Sager]

Two incredible players with similar names (I always double-check to make sure I'm not using the wrong name ).

I wonder if anyone here has seen both Wheaton's Tim McCrary and Olivet's Michael McClary and can compare them.

Well, if you shrank Tim McCrary three inches, put 35 extra pounds of muscle on him, changed his race, and made him grow a huge afro, they'd be twin sons of different mothers.

You're right, you're far too premature with your predictions. And the facts at hand indicate that both of your percentages re: Wash U making the tourney and the Top 25 are too high.

I would never use the term "done deal" to describe the likelihood of Wheaton beating Wash U this year, Chuck, even though the game will be played in DuPage County rather than the Gateway City. Still, you might want to ask UWW head coach Pat Miller or Chicago head coach Mike McGrath how they feel about the 2010-11 edition of Wheaton before you go giving your famous odds in favor of the Bears.

Sure, but am I also allowed to ask Brad Nadborne how he feels?

Sorry, but you give snarky, you get snarky.

Go right ahead. First game of the year is less relevant at this point than the more recent outings. And perhaps you didn't get a good look at what Wheaton did to Chicago tonight on the Maroons' own floor.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Greg, I saw the outcome (though I hadn't previously checked the box).  Right now, I'd take Wheaton, but fortunately I have a few days before I commit!

So, have you seen McClary play?  (And just to illustrate my problem, I had to change McCrary to McClary just before I hit 'post'! )

[KnightSlappy]

I wonder if anyone here has seen both Wheaton's Tim McCrary and Olivet's Michael McClary and can compare them.

I have (though in fairness, I think I've only seen Tim once or twice). My opinion is that Michael McClary is better. You think your team is doing a good job of stopping McClary, and then you check the scoreboard to find that he's already dropped 16 and there's still 10+ minutes to play.

I think a big difference is in supporting cast. Without MM, Olivet would probably be no better than an average MIAA team (which isn't a good thing), but last year they knocked off both Calvin and Hope.

Well, if you shrank Tim McCrary three inches, put 35 extra pounds of muscle on him, changed his race, and made him grow a huge afro, they'd be twin sons of different mothers.

A very accurate assessment.

[dansand]

Well, like Greg said, it wasn't pretty, but it was a win and the Vikes'll take it. Augie got off to a great start, jumping out to an 18-4 lead. I think a key play was at about that point, when Bryant Voiles picked up his second foul and didn't play the rest of the half. He's just such an important component with all he can do on both ends. After a quiet first half, Chris Anderson really stepped it up down the stretch when Augie needed some offense. Monmouth was able to slow down Kyle Nelson, but he still had 15 and six. Augie's got their only out of region game next vs. St. Ambrose, who's 6-1 and ranked 13th in NAIA D2.

[Titan Q]

CCIW in-region report (through 12/1)...

(records below are in-region only...not overall)

Augustana (4-0) - 10 scheduled
11/16, @ Simpson  W
11/22, vs Washington U W
11/27, vs Anderson  W
12/1, @ Monmouth  W
12/11, vs Buena Vista
12/15, vs UW-Whitewater
12/20, @ MacMurray
12/29, vs UW-Stout, at St. Norbert
12/30, @ St. Norbert or vs Lakeland, at St. Norbert
1/2, vs Chicago

Out of region:
12/8, vs St. Ambrose

Carthage (2-1) - 4 scheduled
11/19, vs Bethany Lutheran  W
11/24, vs Whitworth (in Hawaii) L
11/26, vs Pacific (in Hawaii)  W
1/2, @ Transylvania

Out of region:
11/16, vs Calumet-St. Joseph  W  
11/20, vs John Carroll  L
12/3 vs Hope
12/4, vs Calvin
12/7, vs Silver Lake
12/11, vs Albion
12/12, vs Cardinal Stritch

Elmhurst (0-4) - 11 scheduled
11/16, @ Cornell  L
11/20, vs Hamline L
11/23, @ St. Norbert  L
12/1, @ Olivet  L
12/5, @ Westminster (Mo)
12/9, vs Kalamazoo
12/11, vs Loras
12/20, vs Aurora, in Las Vegas
12/21, vs UW-Oshkosh, in Las Vegas
12/29, vs DePauw
12/30, vs Calvin or Benedictine

Illinois Wesleyan (6-0) -  9 or 10 scheduled
11/15, @ Benedictine  W
11/19, vs Aurora  W
11/20, vs Ripon  W
11/23, @ Monmouth  W
11/27, vs Dominican W
11/29, @ Webster  W
12/4, vs Chicago
12/11, vs MacMurray
12/18, @ Washington U
(12/30, @ Cal Lutheran)

Out of region:

12/29, vs Gettysburg, at Cal Lutheran
(12/30, vs Hobart, at Cal Lutheran)

Millikin (0-3) -  6 or 7 scheduled
11/19, vs Nebraska Wesleyan  L
11/23, vs Franklin L
11/28, @ Rose-Hulman L
12/4, @ Aurora
12/20, @ Transyvania
12/29, @ St. Mary's (MN)
(12/30, @ Illinois College)

Out of region:
12/1, vs Robert Morris-Springfield  W
12/8, @ Indianapolis
12/18, @ Adrian
12/21, vs Piedmont (GA) or Westminster (PA), at Transylvania
(12/30, vs Clarke at Illinois College)

North Central (1-4) - 8 scheduled
11/19, vs Bluffton L
11/20 vs Edgewood  L
11/23, vs Aurora  L
11/27, @ Illinois College  L
11/28, @ Manchester W
12/7, vs Lake Forest
12/22, @ Benedictine
12/27, @ Rockford

Out of region:
12/1, vs Albion  W
12/17, @ Hawaii-Hilo
12/30, @ Adrian

North Park (3-1) - 9 scheduled
11/17, vs Concordia  L
11/23, vs Edgewood  W
11/27, @ Fontbonne  W
11/30, @ Carroll W
12/4, vs Trine
12/11, @ Spalding
12/30, vs Milwaukee Engineering
12/19, @ Coe
12/20, @ Loras

Out of region:
12/28, vs Williams, at Salem State
12/29, vs Regis, at Salem State

Wheaton (3-1) -  6 scheduled
11/16, vs Manchester  L
11/19, vs UW-Whitewater  W
11,23, vs Loras  W
12/1, @ Chicago  W
12/4, vs Hope
12/11, vs Washington U

Out of region:
11/19, vs Covenant  W
12/3, vs Calvin
12/9, vs Trinity Intl
12/30, vs Messiah, in Phoenix
12/31, vs Husson, in Phoenix


CCIW non-conference totals (88 games)
In-region games: 64 (73%)
Out-of-region games: 24 (27%)

(Assumes 1 of the 2 TBD games end up in-region)

CCIW in-region, non-conference record (through 12/1)
19-14 (.576)

Q's Projected Final in-region, non-conference record
33-31 (.516)

[Titan Q]

The CCIW went 4-1 tonight:

Millikin (1-3) got off the schneid with a 66-50 home win over RMC-Springfield:

http://www.millikin.edu/SITES/ATHLETICS/MBASKETBALL/Pages/2010-11MillikinStatistics.aspx

It wasn't pretty, but Augie (4-0) managed to top Monmouth on the home floor of the Fighting Scots, 66-59:

http://www.monm.edu/athletics/varsity/m-basketball/result.aspx/?Channel=%2fChannels%2fSports&WorkflowItemID=d13c420f-3d88-4970-bfa6-cb996b409d60

Wheaton (4-1) dominated the second stanza and blew open what had been a close game in the first half, shooting a torrid 66% from the field for the game in slaughtering Chicago at the Ratner Center, 95-67:

http://athletics.uchicago.edu/mensbasketball/whtn-ucm.htm

And, as previously mentioned, North Central (2-4) outlasted Albion in Naperville, to the tune of 72-64:

http://www.northcentralcardinals.com/custompages/MBK/mbk1011/Mbk06.htm

The lone loss was no surprise, as Elmhurst (0-4) dropped an 88-76 decision to a pretty good Olivet team, over on the other side of the big water:

http://www.olivetcollege.edu/athletics/mbasketball/stats/1011/1201olel.htm

That makes the CCIW 6-1 for the week thus far, which is certainly not bad. Bob, I think you can come in off the ledge now.

In terms of in-region record, nothing unexpected has happened this week, Greg.  The CCIW has 4 wins (IWU over Webster, Augie over Monmouth, North Park over Carroll, Wheaton over Chicago) and 1 loss (Olivet over Elmhurst)...all results I was counting on in my projection of final in-region record.  The Millikin and North Central wins were out-of-region obviously - complete non-factors.

I still think we're heading for about 33-31, which is awful.  I hope I end up wrong about the record.

I'll get off the ledge when I see some "upset" wins.

[augiefan]

Q, I see you have Hope against Wheaton as an in region game. Wouldn't that be out of region, as you have Hope and Calvin against Carthage? However, it looks likew your in region game total of 64 is correct. I see the CCIW going 36-28 overall, but I'm an o[ptimist and figure Elmhurst will win at least 1 and Millikin one more in region game. Also I do not see IWU, Carthage or Wheaton losing any remaing in region games. Augie has the toughest schedule, but I think they lose two at the most probably one for sure at the St. Norvert tourney. Still not a great record for the CCIW but better than 33-31.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Q, I see you have Hope against Wheaton as an in region game. Wouldn't that be out of region, as you have Hope and Calvin against Carthage? However, it looks likew your in region game total of 64 is correct. I see the CCIW going 36-28 overall, but I'm an o[ptimist and figure Elmhurst will win at least 1 and Millikin one more in region game. Also I do not see IWU, Carthage or Wheaton losing any remaing in region games. Augie has the toughest schedule, but I think they lose two at the most probably one for sure at the St. Norvert tourney. Still not a great record for the CCIW but better than 33-31.

In the MIAA/CCIW Challenge, Hope v Wheaton is the only 'in-region' game, by the 200 mile rule.  (Hope v. Calvin should be in region, but the NCAA mapping software has it at 202 miles; I could do it in 190!   Carthage v either Hope or Calvin would be in region if they would allow for the ferry! )

[oldknight]

Q, I see you have Hope against Wheaton as an in region game. Wouldn't that be out of region, as you have Hope and Calvin against Carthage? However, it looks likew your in region game total of 64 is correct. I see the CCIW going 36-28 overall, but I'm an o[ptimist and figure Elmhurst will win at least 1 and Millikin one more in region game. Also I do not see IWU, Carthage or Wheaton losing any remaing in region games. Augie has the toughest schedule, but I think they lose two at the most probably one for sure at the St. Norvert tourney. Still not a great record for the CCIW but better than 33-31.

(Hope v. Calvin should be in region, but the NCAA mapping software has it at 202 miles; I could do it in 190!  

Hmm; you must be going from Grand Rapids to Holland via Battle Creek to hit 190 on the odometer.


I know, I know; you meant Wheaton vs. Calvin. Sorry, couldn't resist.