MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Gregory Sager]

Now that it is closer to game time, does it look like both the re-scheduled games (Kenosha and Rock Island) are going to happen?

AFAIK, the NPU bus left at noon and is on its way to Rock Island. And neither the Wheaton nor Carthage websites show any changes.

Something would've been posted by now on the CCIW site or one of the four school sites if there was a change. Of course, that doesn't take into consideration any travel problems experienced en route (e.g., bus malfunction).

[Gregory Sager]

Per the CCIW site: all tonight's games are postponed.  Wheaton @ Carthage and NPU @ Augie are scheduled for tomorrow (does that look like a go?); IWU @ NCC set for Mon the 14th; Elmhurst @ Millikin set for Tues the 22nd.

This is going to be a very strange ending to the CCIW season, with games scattered hither and yon all over the calendar rather than adhering to the strict Wednesday/Saturday format. It should actually open up several games to spectators that they otherwise wouldn't get to see, given that the league is usually conducting four games simultaneously.

First regional rankings are out:

MIDWEST
1 Augustana (Ill.) 19-0 18-0
2 Concordia (Wis.) 16-2 15-2
3 Illinois Wesleyan 14-5 13-5
4 Edgewood 13-6 13-4
5 Hanover 13-5 13-5
6 St. Norbert 15-3 15-3
7 Anderson (Ind.) 14-5 12-4
8 Milwaukee Engineering 14-5 13-5

Entire rankings:

http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/category/ncaa-stuff/regional-rankings/

Oh man...12 minutes too slow.

When was the last time the Midwest had 3 teams from the NathCon or its two predecessors ranked?  I may be off here, but I can't recall that happening.

I can't recall it happening, either -- and I can't find any archives that'll allow me to check the Midwest Region rankings of past seasons.

My first thought when I saw the rankings today was, "Hmmm. North Park is 3-1 against ranked teams."

[Pat Coleman]

Gregory -- regional rankings that are on the blog go back a few years, anyway. Click on Regional Rankings under the News menu.

It's not a long-term archive but there are a few years, anyway.

[Gregory Sager]

Thanks, Pat. I didn't realize that the blog archive went back further than a year.

According to the blog archive, which goes back to the first ranking of the 2005-06 season, there's never been more than one NAthCon team ranked in any given week. In fact, the last time that any NAthCon team was ranked at all -- at least in a ranking that was made public -- was three years ago.

Over the past six seasons, the only two NAthCon teams that've appeared in a publicized ranking are Aurora (which was the last team to appear in the Midwest Region rankings, back in February of '08) and Lakeland.

I don't know if the NAthCon's really any better this year than it has been in prior seasons. I suppose that it could be, but not markedly so. I think that our brethren in the NAthCon are the happy recipients of a singular set of circumstances: A worse-than-usual CCIW (whose current second-place team, North Central, got beat up pretty badly in non-conference play, including a 1-3 performance against NAthCon teams); a down year for both of the two local UAA teams; an HCAC that is pretty good but which is cannibalizing itself to a certain extent; and the lack of a breakout SLIAC team with a record good enough to overcome the liability of playing so many games against bad conference foes (Webster is 11-3 in regional play, but the Gorloks have a very modest OWP; they picked the wrong year to beat Wash U).

[John Gleich]

Add to that, GS, an average-to-down MWC...  There are quite a few crossover games between the NAthCon and the MWC for the Wisconsin contingent. 

[sac]

Could it also be that the NathCon being a larger conference now, has fewer non-conference games to 'mess up' their records?


Thanks for looking that up, I thought it was unusual when I saw it.

[Gregory Sager]

Add to that, GS, an average-to-down MWC...  There are quite a few crossover games between the NAthCon and the MWC for the Wisconsin contingent. 

The NAthCon did best the MWC this season, going 5-3 against them in head-to-head competition, but I don't think that the qualitative difference between the two leagues is all that huge, if indeed there is one at all. The only difference that I can see is that there is sometimes a MWC team that is head and shoulders above everybody else in either league. Is St. Norbert such a team this season? We'll have to wait and see if the Green Knights can keep up this pace, and if Concordia (WI) can match the Knights stride-for-stride.

(It's worth noting that St. Norbert is one of only three MWC teams that posted a winning non-conference record this season. The league as a whole finished three games under .500 in regular-season non-conference play. The NAthCon finished seven games above .500.)

Could it also be that the NathCon being a larger conference now, has fewer non-conference games to 'mess up' their records?

The schedule setup for the NAthCon -- seventeen conference games (ten double round-robin games vs. divisional opponents, six single round-robin games against interdivisional opponents, one "challenge game" prior to conference tournament) and eight non-conference games -- has been the same for the past few seasons. It hasn't helped the NAthCon get any love from the regional committee in the past.

[John Gleich]

Add to that, GS, an average-to-down MWC...  There are quite a few crossover games between the NAthCon and the MWC for the Wisconsin contingent. 

The NAthCon did best the MWC this season, going 5-3 against them in head-to-head competition, but I don't think that the qualitative difference between the two leagues is all that huge, if indeed there is one at all. The only difference that I can see is that there is sometimes a MWC team that is head and shoulders above everybody else in either league. Is St. Norbert such a team this season? We'll have to wait and see if the Green Knights can keep up this pace, and if Concordia (WI) can match the Knights stride-for-stride.

(It's worth noting that St. Norbert is one of only three MWC teams that posted a winning non-conference record this season. The league as a whole finished three games under .500 in regular-season non-conference play. The NAthCon finished seven games above .500.)

I think that there may be more there, though... based on Bob's previous statistical work in terms of the potential outcomes of CCIW members, based on the conference's winning percentage... the higher the winning percentage of the conference as a whole, the better it is for teams who are looking for at-large bids, because their OWP and OOWP will be higher.  It's more than just head-to-head...

Could it also be that the NathCon being a larger conference now, has fewer non-conference games to 'mess up' their records?

The schedule setup for the NAthCon -- seventeen conference games (ten double round-robin games vs. divisional opponents, six single round-robin games against interdivisional opponents, one "challenge game" prior to conference tournament) and eight non-conference games -- has been the same for the past few seasons. It hasn't helped the NAthCon get any love from the regional committee in the past.

The curious thing is the MIAC... who only has, I believe, 5 or 6 non-con games per year.  They have four teams regionally ranked and have had multiple teams ranked, IIRC, in the past.

[Titan Q]

Home win = +0
Road win = +1
Home loss = -1
Road loss = +0


+/- Standings through 1/29
Augustana +3
North Central +3
Illinois Wesleyan +1
Wheaton +0
Carthage +0
North Park -1
Elmhurst -3
Millikin -3

(Usually takes +4 to win the title)

Next Games
Wheaton @ Carthage (Thurs)
North Park @ Augustana (Thurs)

Illinois Wesleyan @ Elmhurst (Fri)

North Central @ Millikin (Sat)
Wheaton @ North Park (Sat)
Carthage @ Augustana (Sat)

[Titan Q]

Huge game tonight in Kenosha in terms of the conference tournament field.  Neither team can really afford a loss, but it seems like Carthage would especially be in bad shape if they can't protect the homecourt tonight.  (Both teams come in 4-4 in the league.)

Remember, if Wheaton beats Carthage tonight, and secures the season sweep, the Thunder would win any kind of tie with the Red Men at the end.

[AndOne]

REMAINING CCIW CONFERENCE GAMES FOR THE CURRENT TOP 5 TEAMS

AUGIE (8/0 in conference play)--2 home, 4 away

2/3-NPU
2/5-Carthage
2/9-@Wheaton
2/12-@Millikin
2/19-@NCC
2/22-@IWU

NCC (6/2)--4 home, 2 away

2/5-@Millikin
2/9-NPU
2/12-Carthage
2/14-IWU
2/16-@Elmhurst
2/19-Augie

IWU (5/3)--3 home, 3 away

2/4-@Elmhurst
2/9-Millikin
2/12-@Wheaton
2/14-@NCC
2/19-NPU
2/22-Augie

CARTHAGE (4/4)--3 home, 3 away

2/3-Wheaton
2/5-@Augie
2/9-Elmhurst
2/12-@NCC
2/16-@NPU
2/19-Millikin

WHEATON (4/4)--3 home, 3 away

2/3-@Carthage
2/5-@NPU
2/9-Augie
2/12-IWU
2/16-@MIllikin
2/19-Elmhurst

It appears it will be more than difficult for Augie not to win the conference title.
If their closest pursuer, NCC, runs the table, and finishes 12/2, the western Vikings would have to lose 2 (NCC & most likely, IWU) for NCC just to forge a tie. I'm not sure of the tiebreaker rules in such an instance.

As TQ indicates, it also seems like the loser of tonight's Wheaton @ Carthage game is in real danger of not making the conference tourney. Conventional wisdom (for whatever thats worth) would dictate Carthage should hold a slight edge with their having home court advantage. Also, speaking only from personal observation of the 2 teams so far this season, I think Carthage is the stronger team.
After tonight, the 2 teams will have 4 common opponents left (Augie, Elmhurst, NPU, & Millikin). Carthage would have to face NCC, while Wheaton will still have IWU.

[Gregory Sager]

Add to that, GS, an average-to-down MWC...  There are quite a few crossover games between the NAthCon and the MWC for the Wisconsin contingent. 

The NAthCon did best the MWC this season, going 5-3 against them in head-to-head competition, but I don't think that the qualitative difference between the two leagues is all that huge, if indeed there is one at all. The only difference that I can see is that there is sometimes a MWC team that is head and shoulders above everybody else in either league. Is St. Norbert such a team this season? We'll have to wait and see if the Green Knights can keep up this pace, and if Concordia (WI) can match the Knights stride-for-stride.

(It's worth noting that St. Norbert is one of only three MWC teams that posted a winning non-conference record this season. The league as a whole finished three games under .500 in regular-season non-conference play. The NAthCon finished seven games above .500.)

I think that there may be more there, though... based on Bob's previous statistical work in terms of the potential outcomes of CCIW members, based on the conference's winning percentage... the higher the winning percentage of the conference as a whole, the better it is for teams who are looking for at-large bids, because their OWP and OOWP will be higher.  It's more than just head-to-head...

Well ... yeah. That's why I pointed out that the NAthCon finished seven games above .500 in non-conference play. I'm well aware of the "rising tide lifts all boats" principle of strength of schedule, and this year's NAthCon is a classic example of it.

Could it also be that the NathCon being a larger conference now, has fewer non-conference games to 'mess up' their records?

The schedule setup for the NAthCon -- seventeen conference games (ten double round-robin games vs. divisional opponents, six single round-robin games against interdivisional opponents, one "challenge game" prior to conference tournament) and eight non-conference games -- has been the same for the past few seasons. It hasn't helped the NAthCon get any love from the regional committee in the past.

The curious thing is the MIAC... who only has, I believe, 5 or 6 non-con games per year.  They have four teams regionally ranked and have had multiple teams ranked, IIRC, in the past.

The West Region is pretty anomalous for all sorts of reasons. It covers three time zones, includes two leagues that have very little in-region play against non-conference opponents, and features two pretty weak leagues (the IIAC and SCIAC; the UMAC will now make it three) and another league that is notoriously top-heavy on an annual basis (the NWC).

Home win = +0
Road win = +1
Home loss = -1
Road loss = +0


+/- Standings through 1/29
Augustana +3
North Central +3
Illinois Wesleyan +1
Wheaton +0
Carthage +0
Millikin -2
North Park -2
Elmhurst -3

NPU is -1, FWIW.

It appears it will be more than difficult for Augie not to win the conference title.

I keep saying that, and augiefan keeps giving us the Lou Holtz treatment in response. But I suppose that it's better to remain pessimistic and to not count your chickens before they've hatched.

If their closest pursuer, NCC, runs the table, and finishes 12/2, the western Vikings would have to lose 2 (NCC & most likely, IWU) for NCC just to forge a tie. I'm not sure of the tiebreaker rules in such an instance.

It would depend upon whom the second team that beats Augie happens to be, and where that team finishes in respect to Illinois Wesleyan (since IWU is the other team besides Augie that's beaten NCC). If the non-NCC team that beats Augie finishes ahead of IWU in the standings, then according to the CCIW's "downward ladder" tiebreaker NCC will have swept a team that split with Augie that counts for more than IWU (which would have split with NCC but been swept by Augie). Therefore, the Cards would win the tiebreaker. If the reverse is true -- if the non-NCC team that beats Augie finishes lower than IWU -- then Augie wins the tiebreaker, based upon the fact that the team which it swept but with which NCC only split (IWU) finished higher than the other team.

If the non-NCC team that beats Augie happens to be IWU -- in other words, if the Rock Islanders and the Napervillains match each other with 12-2 records in which each lost to the other on the road as well as to IWU in Bloomington -- then you move on to the next tiebreaker after the downward ladder, which is CCIW road record. Well, that's the same, so move on to the next tiebreaker after that, which is record over the last seven conference games (that used to be nine games, but the CCIW tiebreaker page indicates that it's been changed). NCC would win that tiebreaker, since the Cards would've gone 7-0 in the second round-robin while Augie would've gone 5-2. Therefore, if Augie and NCC both win out, with the exception of NCC beating Augie and IWU beating Augie, the Cardinals would win the tiebreaker and host the CCIW tourney in the airplane hangar.

As TQ indicates, it also seems like the loser of tonight's Wheaton @ Carthage game is in real danger of not making the conference tourney. Conventional wisdom (for whatever thats worth) would dictate Carthage should hold a slight edge with their having home court advantage. Also, speaking only from personal observation of the 2 teams so far this season, I think Carthage is the stronger team.

I agree. I like the Red Men by about eight points tonight.

[Titan Q]

NPU is -1, FWIW.

Corrected now above.  (Millikin is -3 and not -2.)

[CCIWchamps]

As TQ indicates, it also seems like the loser of tonight's Wheaton @ Carthage game is in real danger of not making the conference tourney. Conventional wisdom (for whatever thats worth) would dictate Carthage should hold a slight edge with their having home court advantage. Also, speaking only from personal observation of the 2 teams so far this season, I think Carthage is the stronger team.
After tonight, the 2 teams will have 4 common opponents left (Augie, Elmhurst, NPU, & Millikin). Carthage would have to face NCC, while Wheaton will still have IWU.

Things are starting to get interesting around here!

[CCIWchamps]

As TQ indicates, it also seems like the loser of tonight's Wheaton @ Carthage game is in real danger of not making the conference tourney. Conventional wisdom (for whatever thats worth) would dictate Carthage should hold a slight edge with their having home court advantage. Also, speaking only from personal observation of the 2 teams so far this season, I think Carthage is the stronger team.
After tonight, the 2 teams will have 4 common opponents left (Augie, Elmhurst, NPU, & Millikin). Carthage would have to face NCC, while Wheaton will still have IWU.

Things are starting to get interesting around here!

I hope Wheaton wins just so Coach Schauer doesn't blow a fuse.