MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Titan Q]

Well, the most important factor in whether or not IWU has any chance at a Pool C bid is how the Midwest committee puts together the final regional ranking.  Last week's was:

Midwest Region (through games of Feb 20)
1   Concordia (Wis.)   20-2   22-3
2   Augustana   21-2   22-2
3   Manchester   18-5   19-6
4   Hanover   18-6   18-6
5   Anderson   15-7   17-8
6   Milwaukee Engineering   18-6   19-6
7   Benedictine   17-6   18-7
8   St. Norbert   18-5   18-5

Since then, IWU secured a huge win over regionally ranked Augustana, as well as over North Central (before falling to Augustana).  I am very confident IWU will end up back in the final Midwest ranking.  I see...

1. Augustana - Pool A team from CCIW
2. Concordia (WI) - Pool C candidate (lost in NathCon tournament and is probably Pool C lock)
3. Manchester - Pool A team from HCAC with win over Hanover today in HCAC championship game
4. Hanover  - Pool C candidate with loss today to Manchester
5. Illinois Wesleyan - Pool C candidate
6. Anderson - Pool C candidate
7. St. Norbert - Pool A team from MWC
8. Benedictine - Pool A team from NathCon

Note that Benedictine now being ranked really helps IWU, because not only do the Titans have the win over Augustana (almost certainly the #1 Midwest team in the final poll), but also BU.  ("Results vs regionally ranked teams" is part of the established Primary Criteria.)

I believe IWU has to be ranked ahead of Hanover in the final ranking today to have any shot.  Concordia is going to be the first Midwest team on the table, and will get in early.  I think a 2nd Midwest Pool C team might make it...but probably not 3.  There are just too many Pool C candidates out there with gaudy in-region winning percentages.  IWU fans should root hard for Manchester today, and hope the committee slots IWU ahead of Hanover.

IWU is very much a longshot, but probably more in the Pool C bubble picture than most realize.  The fact IWU was not regionally ranked last week is somewhat misleading -- again, because they are very likely to reappear now in that final Midwest ranking today.

As I posted after each loss, the Chicago and Wash U non-conference games were extremely damaging for IWU in terms of the selection process.  With 1 win in those games, IWU fans are feeling pretty good right now...with 2, the Titans would be a lock.  (You could add the North Park loss to that category as well.)

[Titan Q]

Courtesy of Ralph Turner, here are the conference tournament upsets so far that have really hurt the teams at the bottom of the Pool C bubble...

Out of the "Top 25" on Knightslappy's power index, there were about 5-6 real upsets that really hurt the field:

Concordia WI   Benedictine/NATHC
Becker  -- Elms/NECC
VWC, if Randolph wins the ODAC
Oswego State's loss -- Buffalo State earned the Pool A from the SUNYAC
Ithaca  -- but which team earning the E8 Pool A bid (SJF or Hartwick) damages Ithaca more, so that they fall farther in the rankings of Pool C?
Ramapo -- NJCU/NJAC

In the Midwest, that Concordia (WI) loss is just a killer...it pushes every other Midwest Pool C candidate down. 

[Titan Q]

Here was my take in early-January on Pool C...

Pool C outlook...revised with Carthage loss today.


With 11-3 CCIW Record and 1-1 in CCIW Tournament
Augustana 22-4 (.846) - Lock
Illinois Wesleyan 20-6 (.769) - Lock
Wheaton 16-6 (.727) - Probable
Carthage 14-6 (.700) - Possible

With 10-4 CCIW Record and 1-1 in CCIW Tournament
Augustana 21-5 (.808) - Lock
Illinois Wesleyan 19-7 (.731) - Probable
Wheaton 15-7 (.682) - Not likely
Carthage 13-7 (.650) - Not likely

With 9-5 CCIW Record and 1-1 in the CCIW Tournament
Augustana 20-6 (.769) - Lock
Illinois Wesleyan 18-8 (.692) - Not likely
Wheaton 14-8 (.636) - No chance
Carthage 12-8 (.600) - No chance

(Obviously a team going 0-1 in the CCIW tournament changes the above.)

North Park, Elmhurst, North Central, and Millikin don't have any chance at a Pool C bid.

IWU is currently at that 18-8 (.692) mark.

[TitansIWU]

Here was my take in early-January on Pool C...

Pool C outlook...revised with Carthage loss today.


With 11-3 CCIW Record and 1-1 in CCIW Tournament
Augustana 22-4 (.846) - Lock
Illinois Wesleyan 20-6 (.769) - Lock
Wheaton 16-6 (.727) - Probable
Carthage 14-6 (.700) - Possible

With 10-4 CCIW Record and 1-1 in CCIW Tournament
Augustana 21-5 (.808) - Lock
Illinois Wesleyan 19-7 (.731) - Probable
Wheaton 15-7 (.682) - Not likely
Carthage 13-7 (.650) - Not likely

With 9-5 CCIW Record and 1-1 in the CCIW Tournament
Augustana 20-6 (.769) - Lock
Illinois Wesleyan 18-8 (.692) - Not likely
Wheaton 14-8 (.636) - No chance
Carthage 12-8 (.600) - No chance

(Obviously a team going 0-1 in the CCIW tournament changes the above.)

North Park, Elmhurst, North Central, and Millikin don't have any chance at a Pool C bid.

IWU is currently at that 18-8 (.692) mark.

Aren't we 19-8 (.704) as opposed to 18-8?

[Titan Q]

Aren't we 19-8 as opposed to 18-8?

19-8 overall, yes, but 18-8 in-region...in-region games are all that matters.  (The Gettysburg game is basically a non-factor.)

[TitansIWU]

Oh ok, I get it.

I will keep looking and see if I can find another win somewhere that everyone missed.

[Titan Q]

Oh ok, I get it.

I will keep looking and see if I can find another win somewhere that everyone missed.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mm7BTPkiqas

[augiefan]

The margin of victory in last night's game was certainly a stunner. I've followed the Vikings for quite a few years, and I wonder if Augie has ever beaten the Titans by that big a margin. In fact I imagine IWU has the best all time record against Augie of any CCIW opponent. Of course, I'm guessing IWU has a winning all time record against every other CCIW team. Augie clearly played their best game in quite awhile to beat IWU so convincingly. I was worried all day that this would be another nail biter down to the final shot.

After all is said and done, I think Augie's depth had a lot to do with onesidedness of this game. When teams play two games in two nights a team like Augie that can go 10 deep has a decided advantage in the second game. Depth plus Brian DeSimone's career night were the difference.

I certainly hope that IWU ekes out a bid, just so we don't have to play them again for awhile. The CCIW even in a so called "down" year deserves two teams. Perhaps the committee wil take into account all of the injuries to key players the Titans suffered this season. IMO a healthy Titan team would have won at least 3 or 4 more games this season.

If the Titan's do make the tourney is Travis R. likely to play in the NCAAs or is his collegiate career over? Hopefully he will be ready to go if needed next week, but only if he's fully healthy.

[iwumichigander]

Congratulations to Augustana whom took care of business last night.  Impressive win.

Getting a Pool C would be nice for the Titans whom seem to be far out on that bubble.

[Titan Q]

Well, the most important factor in whether or not IWU has any chance at a Pool C bid is how the Midwest committee puts together the final regional ranking.  Last week's was:

Midwest Region (through games of Feb 20)
1   Concordia (Wis.)   20-2   22-3
2   Augustana   21-2   22-2
3   Manchester   18-5   19-6
4   Hanover   18-6   18-6
5   Anderson   15-7   17-8
6   Milwaukee Engineering   18-6   19-6
7   Benedictine   17-6   18-7
8   St. Norbert   18-5   18-5

Since then, IWU secured a huge win over regionally ranked Augustana, as well as over North Central (before falling to Augustana).  I am very confident IWU will end up back in the final Midwest ranking.  I see...

1. Augustana - Pool A team from CCIW
2. Concordia (WI) - Pool C candidate (lost in NathCon tournament and is probably Pool C lock)
3. Manchester - Pool A team from HCAC with win over Hanover today in HCAC championship game
4. Hanover  - Pool C candidate with loss today to Manchester
5. Illinois Wesleyan - Pool C candidate
6. Anderson - Pool C candidate
7. St. Norbert - Pool A team from MWC
8. Benedictine - Pool A team from NathCon

Note that Benedictine now being ranked really helps IWU, because not only do the Titans have the win over Augustana (almost certainly the #1 Midwest team in the final poll), but also BU.  ("Results vs regionally ranked teams" is part of the established Primary Criteria.)

I believe IWU has to be ranked ahead of Hanover in the final ranking today to have any shot.  Concordia is going to be the first Midwest team on the table, and will get in early.  I think a 2nd Midwest Pool C team might make it...but probably not 3.  There are just too many Pool C candidates out there with gaudy in-region winning percentages.  IWU fans should root hard for Manchester today, and hope the committee slots IWU ahead of Hanover.

I've heard that the final Midwest ranking is done, and it goes...

1. Augustana (Pool A)
2. Concordia (Pool C candidate)
3. Manchester (Pool A)
4. Hanover (Pool C candidate)
5. Illinois Wesleyan (Pool C candidate)
6. Benedictine (Pool A)
7. Edgewood (Pool C candidate)
8. St. Norbert (Pool A)

So IWU's only hope at this point is for Concordia to get in early, for Hanover to get in somewhere in the 14-15 range, and for IWU to get at least get discussed for a few rounds and maybe get picked over a high winning % team without any significant wins.

With the upsets that have taken place, the odds for IWU are long.

[John Gleich]

I've heard that the final Midwest ranking is done, and it goes...

1. Augustana (Pool A)
2. Concordia (Pool C candidate)
3. Manchester (Pool A)
4. Hanover (Pool C candidate)
5. Illinois Wesleyan (Pool C candidate)
(not sure about 6-8)

So IWU's only hope at this point is for Concordia to get in early, for Hanover to get in somewhere in the 14-15 range, and for IWU to get at least get discussed for a few rounds and maybe get picked over a high winning % team without any significant wins.

With the upsets that have taken place, the odds for IWU are long.

Any word if the full rankings will be released this year?

[Titan Q]

I've heard that the final Midwest ranking is done, and it goes...

1. Augustana (Pool A)
2. Concordia (Pool C candidate)
3. Manchester (Pool A)
4. Hanover (Pool C candidate)
5. Illinois Wesleyan (Pool C candidate)
(not sure about 6-8)

So IWU's only hope at this point is for Concordia to get in early, for Hanover to get in somewhere in the 14-15 range, and for IWU to get at least get discussed for a few rounds and maybe get picked over a high winning % team without any significant wins.

With the upsets that have taken place, the odds for IWU are long.

Any word if the full rankings will be released this year?

Per Handbook, yes...

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/champ_handbooks/basketball/2011/11_3_mbasketball.pdf

(bottom page 17)

[iwu70]

D3hoops.com projected bracket doesn't have IWU making it.   Not even "left on the board."  Too bad CCIW is only a one team league this year. 

Good luck to Augie.  Hope they make some serious noise in the tourney.

Yes, I'll pretty much turn to women's basketball now . . . hoping for a "home Final Four" for our TITANS.

[Titan Q]

D3hoops.com projected bracket doesn't have IWU making it.   Not even "left on the board."  Too bad CCIW is only a one team league this year.  

Just to clarify...

The "not even left on the board" projection is from the blog Forever Faithful to maroon and gold, not D3hoops.com...

http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/d3-bracketology.html

Matt Snyder, who publishes that blog, uses a mathmatical formula to project Pool C bids.  While it is very helpful, and will probably nail 16 or 17 of the 18 Pool C bids, keep in mind that he does not have the actual final regional rankings to use...and the regional rankings are central to the overall selection process.  

For example, he has Edgewood as the final Midwest team on the table...not Illinois Wesleyan.  As I posted yesterday, I'm quite certain IWU is the 3rd highest ranked Midwest Pool C candidate (not Edgewood) in the final regional poll.  Just one example where his formula does not mirror that actual process.

Now, the bottom line is that Matt Snyder and D3hoops.com both project IWU to be left out of the field (as do I).  But as long as Hanover gets in, IWU is going to be "on the board" or "at the table", whatever your preferred term.

[Titan Q]

As I posted yesterday, IWU's only hope is to be on the board for 3 or 4 rounds, and for the national committee to value their 3 wins over regionally ranked teams over the resume of whoever the other candidates are at that time.  IWU's win over Midwest #1 Augustana should carry pretty significant weight, and then the Titans have the Benedictine and Webster wins.  (Regarding Webster, I recently heard that all final Pool A teams are considered "regionally ranked"...even if they don't actually appear in the final ranking.)

Again, the odds are not good, but IWU should be on the board...and any team on the board is definitely "on the bubble" at least.