MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[sac]

Here's a look at Efficiency ratings for the IWU pod at St. Thomas.  (edited for updated information)

EFF ratings are points per 100 possessions.


Offense

St. Thomas	113.9
Northwestern	111.5
Illinois Wesleyan	107.8
UW River Falls	107.0

Offensively St. Thomas is among the top teams in the D3 tournament, Northwestern is just outside.  UWRF and IWU appear to be average for the field.

Defense

UW River Falls	97.3
St. Thomas	97.7
Northwestern	98.2
Illinois Wesleyan	99.5

Defensively all 4 teams appear to be in the average category when compared to the rest of the D3 field.

Combined

St. Thomas	216.1
Northwestern	213.3
UW River Falls	209.8
Illinois Wesleyan	208.3

These kinds of ratings are really only useful when you take into account schedule strength.  Masseyratings.com has its faults but its really all we have.

Schedule played ratings

UW River Falls	#2
St. Thomas	#4
Illinois Wesleyan	#53
Northwestern	#337

If the D3 tournament were a properly seeded national tournament with 4 regions like the D1 tournament.  I think St. Thomas would be a 2 seed somewhere, and UWRF probably 4 or 5.  IWU would figure to be around a 7, 8 or 9 seed and Northwestern would be in the 12, 13, 14 range.


While it looks like Northwestern can compete with these teams from an efficiency point of view, they have played no where near the difficult schedules the other 3 teams have faced.  St. Thomas should be a pretty solid favorite.  UWRF looks like a  favorite over IWU, with St. Thomas being the overall favorite.

Northwestern plays at a little faster pace than the other 3.  St. Thomas,  IWU and UWRF play at nearly the same pace, so this shouldn't be a clash of styles.  The total difference from NW to St.T,  IWU/UWRF is only 8 possessions per game or so.

[TitansIWU]

In their last two appearances in the NCAA tourney(2008 and 2007), the Augie Vikings did not make it past the first weekend of the tourney despite having home court advantage both times at Carver. Hopefully this year they will change that history, although this Viking team does not have anyone with tournament experience (other than garbage time minutes for Croegaert and Rorer in 2008), when they suffered a first game loss to a very average Carroll College team, probably not as good as this year's first game opponent (Webster).

This year's Augie team appears to better than the 2007 and 2008 teams, but they have to quickly learn there is a whole new dynamic come tourney time. They certainly looked like they have the necessary focus based on the game Saturday night in Naperville, but we'll know for sure by this time Friday or Saturday night. Grey Giovanine has a great regular season record at Augie, but his NCAA tourney record can use a some improvement. Hopefully, this is the year.

I know most everyone but Augie fans cannot stand Coach G, but the Augie players overall are a classy group, who play hard and are deserving of success. I hope for the sake of Kyle Nelson and the other seniors that they have a few more weeks of BB left before graduation.

Good luck to both CCIW teams. We can only hope they have one more Augie-IWU rematch this season. That would be great news for both squads and the CCIW.

I heard this morning that the Augie students will be on spring break and not on campus this weekend.  If that's true, how much does it reduce Augies home court advantage?

I think there will still be a fairly good crowd, it will have more to do with whether the team they play can beat their tremendous defense. They just seem really tall and can really close a team down with what some view as "rough play."

They are really well coached, although I hate to admit that, and they just play even taller than they are, which is really tall.

i think if you had an endless supply of guards who can get to the hoop, a team might be able to get them in foul trouble early.

They are just tough.

[sac]

Here's a look at Efficiency ratings for the Augustana pod.

EFF ratings are points per 100 possessions.


Offense

Hope	112.6
Hanover	110.6
Augustana	105.2
Webster	103.0

Hope is among the top 15 or so in the D3 field offensively.  Webster and Augustana appear to be slightly below the average

Defense

Webster	87.8
Augustana	91.7
Hope	98.9
Hanover	102.5

Defensively Webster is in or near the top 10 Augustana is just outside the top 15 in the field for defense.   Hope and Hanover are below the field average.

Combined

Webster	215.1
Hope	213.7
Augustana	213.5
Hanover	208.2

These kinds of ratings are really only useful when you take into account schedule strength.  Masseyratings.com has its faults but its really all we have.

Schedule played ratings

Augustana	#40
Hanover	#62
Hope	#67
Webster	#357

If the D3 tournament were a properly seeded national tournament with 4 regions like the D1 tournament.  I think Augustana would be a 3 seed somewhere, Hope a 4 or 5 seed.  Hanover a 6 or 7 seed.  Webster in the 13 to 15 range.   


The raw numbers suggest Webster is a very good team, but the level of competition faced is nowhere near the other 3.  However head to head scores suggest the Augie/Webster game has the potential to be closer than maybe some are anticipating.  Augie should still be a big favorite at home though.  The SLIAC representative has never fared well in the tournament.  Hope looks to be a slight favorite over Hanover.

Augustana and Hope are probably closer to each other than people realize at least statistically.  Hanover is not far behind.  Augustana should be considered the favorite, with the home court making it even more so. 

Hope is the fastest paced team of the four and its by a wide margin.  The Hope/Hanover game looks to be a great clash of styles with a pretty significant difference in possessions per game of nearly 30, one of the widest in the 1st round.  Augustana and Webster are nearly identical in pace, but a full 15 behind Hope.  Either way, the 2nd round game figures to be another clash of styles.

[theseguysaregood]

A look at probable starters for the 4 teams in the St. Thomas regional...

http://www.iwuhoops.com/


How did a kid named "Wade Chitwood" from Grinnell, IA get away from his hometown college??

Interesting that it doesn't appear that there is a clear "star" player among the four teams.  At least when you look at scoring averages, each team seems to be successful because of a breadth of talent vs a stud.

[coebball70]

It could be because the admission requirements at Northwestern (WI) pale by comparison to those at Grinnell, a school that is among the finest academic small colleges in the country.

Pure speculation.  Rumor has it Wade Chitwood has both a 36 ACT AND a 1600 SAT.

[Mr. Ypsi]

A look at probable starters for the 4 teams in the St. Thomas regional...

http://www.iwuhoops.com/


How did a kid named "Wade Chitwood" from Grinnell, IA get away from his hometown college??

Interesting that it doesn't appear that there is a clear "star" player among the four teams.  At least when you look at scoring averages, each team seems to be successful because of a breadth of talent vs a stud.

That was apparently the feeling of the tourney fantasy pickers as well.  Nobody in that pod was selected until the 6th round.  SOMEBODY has to win it, but no great candidates for fantasy points.   At #38 (of 42) someone finally took Tyler Nicolai of St. Thomas.  At #42 (Mr. hopefully NOT Irrelevant!), I was torn between Doug Sexauer and Sean Johnson as my 'homer' pick - I ultimately chose Sean.  Based on the matchups, I think Doug could have huge games, but if IWU is to win I think Sean will need to put up huge 3-point numbers.

[TitansIWU]

A look at probable starters for the 4 teams in the St. Thomas regional...

http://www.iwuhoops.com/


How did a kid named "Wade Chitwood" from Grinnell, IA get away from his hometown college??

Interesting that it doesn't appear that there is a clear "star" player among the four teams.  At least when you look at scoring averages, each team seems to be successful because of a breadth of talent vs a stud.

That was apparently the feeling of the tourney fantasy pickers as well.  Nobody in that pod was selected until the 6th round.  SOMEBODY has to win it, but no great candidates for fantasy points.   At #38 (of 42) someone finally took Tyler Nicolai of St. Thomas.  At #42 (Mr. hopefully NOT Irrelevant!), I was torn between Doug Sexauer and Sean Johnson as my 'homer' pick - I ultimately chose Sean.  Based on the matchups, I think Doug could have huge games, but if IWU is to win I think Sean will need to put up huge 3-point numbers.

I think Sean Johnson, Jordan Zimmer, and Doug Sexauer have to have huge games TOGETHER. If that happens, which it rarely has all season, they'll do well and I like their chances.

If not, it seems like it comes down to the wire and whoever has a chance at the end. Sometimes it's the Titans, sometimes it's not.

But if those three play well together, and then a few supporting players do their part, it's just a different team.

[iwu70]

Yup, sure would be nice to see the entire Titan cast put it all together this weekend.  We need an all-out team effort with everyone playing well, everyone contributing.  Good luck to Coach Rose and the entire Titan team in MSP.  Solid defense and winning the rebounding battle will again be key.  Playing at the Titan pace and shooting the 3 ball well, . . . . well, what more can I say. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

Before I am dismissed as totally crazy, let me say that IWU will be the underdog in every game right from game one.  Nevertheless:

How IWU COULD make it to Salem:

Game one (neutral court) vs. UWRF.  The Falcons are the favorites, but have lost 5 of their last 6 games.  Player by player I just don't see it.  I will be VERY disappointed if the Titans don't win this one.

Game two (Northwestern or St. Thomas, but Northwestern is perhaps a 1 in 1000 chance).  Tommies will be a HUGE favorite, but looking at the matchups, I like our chances.  I've thought all year the Toms were over-ranked (though deservedly above IWU), but looking at the player-by-player matchups and the game styles, I like our chances.  IF we upset St. Thomas:

Game three (probably AT UWSP).  This is where I predict the postseason ride ends, BUT ... both the teams I've already said IWU could beat have beaten them.  My d3hoops.com bracket pick is that UWSP wins it all, but both UWRF and St. Thomas have already beaten them, so why not IWU??!   Looking player-by-player, I don't see any compelling disadvantages (and some advantages), so if the Titans play at their maximum as a TEAM, I think it is potentially winnable.

Game four: this would presumably be either Augie or a team lesser than Augie that got hot - and we already beat Augie (admittedly one of three times, but therefore it CAN happen ).

VOILA - Salem is highly unlikely, but it COULD happen!

[5 Words or Less]

Here's a look at Efficiency ratings for the IWU pod at St. Thomas.  (edited for updated information)

EFF ratings are points per 100 possessions.
...

Where do you find EFF ratings?

[TitansIWU]

We need a theme song preferably something by Journey.

[devildog29]

We need a theme song preferably something by Journey.

I gotta say Journey has become a little too cliche as much as I hate to admit it.  Now THIS http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_shxzlTRK44 on the other hand, never gets old.

I really which I was computer literate enough to know how to make the word (ie "THIS") the hyperlink instead of having to copy the URL into the msg. 

[iwu70]

Well, Chuck, at least we can say you look at the bright side.  And, we have last year's IWU baseball run to inspire us all.  At this stage in the season, most of the teams are excellent and it just depends on who puts it all together on the night, who shoots the rock well, who really has an outstanding overall team effort to get a good run going.  I'm hoping too that the Titans start such a positive run on Friday.  Consistency has not exactly been their strong suit this year, nor a strong road-team record, but we can always "look at the bright side."   Our guys have surely been through the wars on tough opponents, injury challenges, and interruptions to a consistent rotation.  Would be nice to have all the pieces back and all working together, but that has not been the journey so far.  We'll see.  It's more like kicking and scrapping to stop from going over the edge.  Well, we're on the edge every night now.  Win or go home.

Wishing Coach Rose and all the Titans, especially the seniors, a good long deep run into the Dance.  Let's hope our Titans and Augie really make some noise in the tournament, debunking the "down year" talk that has been on this board pretty much all season.

[Pat Coleman]

Well, Chuck, at least we can say you look at the bright side. 

I don't think we needed to wait for that post to be able to say that.

Who from the board is going to be there?

[Titan Q]

Reading between the lines here, I think it's safe to say Travis Rosenkranz will not return for the Titans...

http://www.pantagraph.com/sports/college/basketball/men/article_3cf09fee-4540-11e0-866c-001cc4c03286.html