MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[augie_superfan]

Here are my rankings system's predicted results for today's CCIW games:

IWU a 7 point favorite @ Ripon
North Park a 7 point underdog at home vs. Coe
Elmhurst a 11 point underdog vs. Wabash (@ DePauw)
North Central a 8 point underdog at home vs. Illinois College

-  IWU lost by 19
-  NPU won by 15
+ Elm lost by 8
- NCC won by 15

Three down, one up. The crystal ball needs polishing.   

Guess you picked the wrong (or right) day to evaluate the crystall ball.  So far it has picked 25 of 32 CCIW games correctly (78.1%).  Fo all D3 games, it has picked 76.3% of games correctly to this point.  Unfortunately, it just can't figure out North Park quite yet (only 2 of 6 correct).

With a 76 or 78% success rate, you should strongly consider getting your butt to a lottery ticket location now!

Lottery is pure luck (or as my dad says - a tax on math dropouts ).  augie_superfan's system is an attempt at logic - given that so far there is not much data, his winning % should rise.

One would hope!  MANY games are obvious mismatches, so any half-aware fan should get 70+% right - his system will (IMO) be a 'failure' if it does not eventually reach at least 85%.

Actually, the winning percentage will probably not rise that much.  I'm holding out hope that it will but I doubt it.  Replaying last year's entire D3 season came out at roughly 70% correct in the early season (thru mid Dec.) and about 75% correct for the rest of the season.  I figured my early season results would be better this year because I used a team-by-team adjustment to last years rankings to get the inital rankings for this year...therefore my initial rankings are much closer to "correct" than last year.

85% correct is just practically impossible for any computer system.  Below is a link that tracks different rating systems for D1 basketball and how well they predict.  Watch throughout the year and see how no system should top 80%:

http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/bbresults.php

There are too many factors that go into a game to be able to predict that accurately what the outcome will be.

[Titan Q]

Actually, the winning percentage will probably not rise that much.  I'm holding out hope that it will but I doubt it.  Replaying last year's entire D3 season came out at roughly 70% correct in the early season (thru mid Dec.) and about 75% correct for the rest of the season.  I figured my early season results would be better this year because I used a team-by-team adjustment to last years rankings to get the inital rankings for this year...therefore my initial rankings are much closer to "correct" than last year.

85% correct is just practically impossible for any computer system.  Below is a link that tracks different rating systems for D1 basketball and how well they predict.  Watch throughout the year and see how no system should top 80%:

http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/bbresults.php

There are too many factors that go into a game to be able to predict that accurately what the outcome will be.

No matter what the accuracy of your system ends up being for 2011-12, I really appreciate all the work you have put into creating the D3 Basketball Index.  It's very interesting and I think it will end up carrying more weight here than Massey if you stick with it. 

For those who have not checked it out...

https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/

Great job, augie_superfan.

[Titan Q]

The first D3hoops.com poll since the Preseason version is out.  The Vikings of Augustana are the #1 team in the nation...

http://www.d3hoops.com/top25/men/2011-12/week1


Wheaton all the way up to #13.

[Gregory Sager]

A look at the weather this evening finds the winds spinning south over the lake, turning inland and picking up moisture over the Sagerville neighborhood, and blowing briskly out toward the western suburbs. 

Hmm. I always thought that all of that hot air blowing out of Sagerville was rather dry.

*Talk about spin? Is the fact that Burchett & Hallstein were freshmen last season the only supporting evidence you can offer you can offer to support your position, Greg?

Of course not. The blindingly obvious aspect of Hallstein's and Burkett's presence on the Cardinals roster last season, apart from the fact that they were both freshmen, was that they were both members of Todd Raridon's rotation. They were important and valued members of a team that was the CCIW co-champion last season, a feat that NCC would likely not have accomplished if they hadn't been around.

*"Spin" encompasses supposition and you suppose the former players in question would have improved--which may or may not have proven true. However, without documentation, is the simple statement actual evidentiary documentation or spin favoring your position?

Your conclusion is in error, Mark, because you attributed to me an argument that I did not make. I never said that they, or any other freshmen, "would have improved." Here's what I said:

Freshmen almost always show up with a myriad of weaknesses in their games. As they progress into sophomores, then juniors, then seniors, the ones that are good enough to contribute at the CCIW level either: a) eliminate those weaknesses through practice, repetition, and effort; b) minimize them to the point where their presence on the floor is not a liability because of them; c) develop one or more strengths of their games to the point where they can't be kept off the floor by the head coach in spite of their liability(ies); or d) one or more of the above.

Note the emphasis that I added this second time around. It's theoretical improvement, not mandated improvement. If it was mandated that all college basketball players accrue abilities and decrease or eliminate deficiencies on a progressive basis throughout their four years in school, then all we'd ever see on the court are seniors. But it doesn't work that way. Basketball players don't fall into neat formulae. Most of the ones who contribute do, indeed, get progressively better, but that's not always the case. And that's why I went on to use such qualified phrases as "either one could've improved" and "they might well have been good enough" -- there's no supposition at all in those phrases.

As for "evidentiary documentation," are you really demanding that I demonstrate statistically that most players improve from their freshman year to their sophomore year to their junior year to their senior year? Gee, is there anything else you'd like me to do between now and Christmas? You'd better let me know now, because I don't see much of an opportunity here for me to take any meal breaks, bathroom breaks, or sleep intervals if I'm going to document this phenomenon properly.

Seriously, though, I "suppose" nothing where Burchett or Hallstein are concerned. One or both of them might've continued along the traditional (albeit without "evidentiary documentation" ) line of getting better as players from year to year. Or one or both of them might not've done that at all. But, given that: a) Todd Raridon recruited them (or, to throw a bone in the direction of my man Todd Kelly, supervised the recruiting of them ), which presumes a higher ceiling of potential, since most coaches don't want a player who's never going to get any better than he already is as a high-school senior; and b) both were members of the NCC rotation and made important contributions to a successful season, I don't feel as though I'm going out on a limb in saying that the odds were good that one or both of them would get better and better over the next three years.

*The proof is in the pudding--or in this case in the stats. And the stats clearly show that, at least to this point, this year's players are stronger factors than were the now departed players in question.

Apples and oranges, inasmuch as the departed duo is no longer around to contribute, anyway, and you're comparing two completely different sets of circumstances. Plus, it's not as though North Central's played a ton of games with which to make that comparison. Lastly, we're talking about the long haul here, not just the short term, since Burchett and Hallstein had (and still have) three more years of eligibility remaining. Look, I'm not saying that Burchett and Hallstein are better as a duo than Tiknis and Rosenberg. I'm saying that their absence on what you've already admitted is a thin roster is worth more recognition than a simple dismissive wave of the hand, particularly since the fact that they were only sophomores-to-be represents a lot of lost potential.

Lots of fans fall in love with the abilities and performances of their favorite team's players, and tout them here on the boards, and then suddenly turn on those players and write them off as not actually being all that valuable when said players leave the team prematurely. You're not the only one guilty of that. I, too, have done that with NPU players. It's sort of a psychic damage-control thing, I think. But I believe we have to honestly confront this tendency in ourselves as fans if we want to have any credibility.

*Lastly, how can 2 players who demonstrated that they lacked the desire to even be a continued part of the team, be remotely considered to "have set NCC back" especially when you consider Tiknis & Rosenberg, 2 players who played less than they did last year, are making contributions that are currently exceeding what the departed players posted last season?

Your statement about lack of motivation is not really germane. If they'd been in a car accident and were both laid up for a year, it'd be the same thing to say that the team would be set back in their absence. It's the fact of their absence that matters, not the reason behind it.

[Mugsy]

Actually, the winning percentage will probably not rise that much.  I'm holding out hope that it will but I doubt it.  Replaying last year's entire D3 season came out at roughly 70% correct in the early season (thru mid Dec.) and about 75% correct for the rest of the season.  I figured my early season results would be better this year because I used a team-by-team adjustment to last years rankings to get the inital rankings for this year...therefore my initial rankings are much closer to "correct" than last year.

85% correct is just practically impossible for any computer system.  Below is a link that tracks different rating systems for D1 basketball and how well they predict.  Watch throughout the year and see how no system should top 80%:

http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/bbresults.php

There are too many factors that go into a game to be able to predict that accurately what the outcome will be.

No matter what the accuracy of your system ends up being for 2011-12, I really appreciate all the work you have put into creating the D3 Basketball Index.  It's very interesting and I think it will end up carrying more weight here than Massey if you stick with it. 

For those who have not checked it out...

https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/

Great job, augie_superfan.

Agreed.  This is awesome!  K+

[iwu70]

Seems Ripon well might be considered a top 25 team some time soon?  They certainly took IWU completely out of their normal game.

Congrats to Augie on their #1 ranking.  Wheaton does look mighty fine so far and NCC is amazingly disappointing so far.  Could it be a two or three team race?

CCIW race should be another good one . . . great games coming up soon -- UWSP vs. Augie, and several CCIW teams playing Chicago and Wash U. 

IWU men have UW Whitewater on Wednesday, Webster on Saturday the 3rd, and @ U Chicago on the 10th, Wash U on the 17th at The Shirk..

Final Exams week of December 5th-9th.  No easy road, no easy schedule for the student-athlete.  Ames Library is totally full tonight with that unmistakable scent of panic in the air as the last week of the semester prior to finals begins.

IWU70

[cardinalpride]

Congrats to Augie on their #1 ranking.  Wheaton does look mighty fine so far and NCC is amazingly disappointing so far.  Could it be a two or three team race?

IWU70

NCC is amazingly disappointing based on what evidence?  The 3-1 start this year after 4 games with the defeat coming on the road? Remember, NCC started 0-4 a year ago with 3 of the defeats coming at home.  Many would consider that early season progress from a year ago.

1 senior, 2 juniors, 4 soph, and 1 frosh, that's the experience level of the players who have played in all 4 games so far this year. AO has already mentioned another soph that the Cards were relying on is out for the season with injury.

IMHO, there is plenty of book left to be read on NCC's season. We'll find out in due time if its a disappointing read or not...

[John Gleich]

CCIW race should be another good one . . . great games coming up soon -- UWSP vs. Augie, and several CCIW teams playing Chicago and Wash U. 

I hope my Pointers can make the Augie game a good one... They're young and undersized this year and have been prone to turning the ball over.

Hopefully they can come out and shoot the ball well... but I'm not too hopeful about this matchup!

[Titan Q]

Halftime:

Augustana 32
St. Ambrose 31

Here is the video link...

http://client.stretchinternet.com/client/stam.portal#


This is the first time I have had a chance to see Augie this year.  Holy cow are they big. 

St. Ambrose lost by 29 to St. Xavier and 12 to Trinity Christian, so this is not a very good Bees team.

[augie_superfan]

Halftime:

Augustana 32
St. Ambrose 31

Here is the video link...

http://client.stretchinternet.com/client/stam.portal#


This is the first time I have had a chance to see Augie this year.  Holy cow are they big. 

St. Ambrose lost by 29 to St. Xavier and 12 to Trinity Christian, so this is not a very good Bees team.

Yeah, I've only been watching for about 10 minutes but it looks like Augie is a bit frustrated with some of the calls.  Usually Augie's size allows them to be quite physical but it looks like they are getting called for more fouls than usual tonight and the reactions of a few players show they are clearly frustrated.  Hopefully they just get back to playing the game and pull this game out down the stretch.

Voiles shooting the last few minutes is keeping them on top. 

[Titan Q]

Carthage heading to OT at home vs Olivet Nazarene.  Video...

http://www.carthage.edu/library/webcast/webcasting-stream-2/

[Titan Q]

Final...

Olivet Nazarene 87
Carthage 85
(2 OT)

[Titan Q]

I did not catch the final, but Augie pulled away from St. Ambrose in the final 10 minutes of the game and won by about 5-7.  I think the Vikings scored about 50 2nd half points, with a bunch of them coming from Bryant Voiles.  Voiles went absolutely nuts  in the 2nd half, draining bomb after bomb, and knocking down a lot of FT's.

Impressions of Augustana from watching one game online...

* The Vikings have ridiculous size for Division III - even on a video stream they just look huge.  I've watched a lot of good D3 basketball over the course of the last 22 years or so and I can't remember a team this big.

* Bryant Voiles has become an absolute freak of a D3 player - a 6-9 perimeter player who can shoot the heck out of it from well beyond the 3-point arc, with great touch from the FT line, and pretty good handles.  He will make a strong run at a 1st Team All-American spot.  I think Voiles could play in the Missouri Valley Conference and be pretty good.

* 6-9 C Luke Scarlata is going to have a big year.  In the 1st half I thought he looked better than Kyle Nelson (the 1st Team low-post player he replaced in the starting lineup).  He did not do much in the 2nd, but overall, I got the feeling he is going to be a load this season.  I see a 2nd Team All-CCIW season and won't be surprised if he is in the mix for the 1st Team.  He is very big and very skilled.

* Troy Rorer does a lot of valuable things on the floor, on both ends.  He's a good player (although a terrible FT shooter).

* For all of Augie's depth, they really only played an 8-man rotation tonight (Norton, Kunz, Anderson off the bench...the freshman PG comes in every now and then to spell DeSimone but never for more than about 2 minutes at a time).


Wheaton vs Augustana will be an intriguing matchup.  These teams are so completely different.  I definitely think Wheaton, behind all those good perimeter players and Tim McCrary can play with them, but I'm not sure that Wheaton can handle all of Augie's size.

[Titan Q]

Here is the Augie boxscore...

http://www.augustana.edu/athletics/mbasketball/stats/2011-12/12mbb04.htm


I guess I know why I got the impression that Voiles can play in the Missouri Valley from watching this one - he had 38 & 10!  (29 2nd half points.)

The rest of the Vikings went 0-7 from 3-point range and 9-19 from the FT line.  I do think Augie is vulnerable to a night where Voiles is not shooting it well...I don't think Augie has much else out there in terms of reliable 3-point shooting.

[John Gleich]

Here is the Augie boxscore...

http://www.augustana.edu/athletics/mbasketball/stats/2011-12/12mbb04.htm


I guess I know why I got the impression that Voiles can play in the Missouri Valley from watching this one - he had 38 & 10!  (29 2nd half points.)

The rest of the Vikings went 0-7 from 3-point range and 9-19 from the FT line.  I do think Augie is vulnerable to a night where Voiles is not shooting it well...I don't think Augie has much else out there in terms of reliable 3-point shooting.

I didn't get a chance to watch any of it, but I did follow the Augustana/UW Oshkosh game via live stats a week ago Tuesday:

http://www.titans.uwosh.edu/MBasketball/2012/AUG1.pdf

An average and rather undersized (comparitively) Oshkosh team was able to hang with Augie and actually held a 5 point lead about midway throught the second half until Augie went on a 16-0 run.  The Vikes won 80-72.

The stats are similar to yours Bob... Voiles went 3/5 from 3 and everybody else went 0-7.  However, the rest of the Vikings were 17/22 from the line and Voiles only went there 4 times... but still scored 21 for the game.

UWO's gym is a giant cavern... I think you could fit North Central's Airplane Hangar inside of it... so I'm not sure if that had something to do with the tightness of the game or not, but Augie did lose at NC last year (though they didn't have too much of a problem with either Wheaton or IWU in Naperville in the CCIW tournament... though their opponents had to deal with the different surroundings too).