MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Gregory Sager]

The refs were once again bad in a DIII game.  At one point in the first half, the fouls were 7-1 in favor of the home team and more than a few of the Coe faithful were vocal about pointing that out to the zebras.

Interesting observation. Jacobson, Scherzinger, and Maziarka are a veteran officiating crew, all of whom typically perform good service. In fact, Ken Maziarka is the CCIW's head of men's basketball officiating.

I disagree with the idea that a lopsided team-foul count is somehow an indictment of the officiating. It negates the possibility that the team-foul count might be lopsided because one team is committing lots of fouls and the other team isn't. That does happen, and it happens pretty frequently. I know that coaches constantly use lopsided team-foul counts as leverage to try to get refs to swing some calls their way, but a good official should simply shrug it off. If one team's committing all the fouls, then one team's committing all the fouls. Simple as that. Expecting team-foul totals to be balanced out for the sake of fairness shows a misguided concept of what fairness really is. The fairest thing that a ref can do is to call a foul when there is a foul, or to not call one when there isn't one.

It's funny you should say this, because the 1 Carthage foul to that point was a ticky-tack call on Malcolm in the back-court on a hand check. 

I only used those numbers for the Coe fans who were sniping the refs quite often about reaches, hand-checks, and various other no-calls.  Were there a few fouls that Carthage committed that SHOULD have been called in the first 10 minutes?  You betcha! 

But, to their credit, Carthage played a much more aggressive and ball-hawking style than Coe did, especially at the guard position and continued to play that way after the refs let them.  Had they played a second game in the same style, I could just as easily see them have to dial down the pressure a notch or two because the refs wouldn't let them get away with some of the things that they did get away with.

Adjusting to how the officials are calling a game by either dialing up the defensive pressure or dialing it down is a good indication of a smart team and/or a smart coach.

[Titan Q]

Chicago @ Augie video...

http://client.stretchinternet.com/client/augustana.portal#

[Gregory Sager]

Augustana 93
Chicago 52

The CCIW might be down this year, but I think you'll have a hard time convincing Maroons head coach Mike McGrath of that. His team is 0-3 against the CCIW, with losses of 22, 21, and 41. And if you could throw the white towel out onto the floor and end the contest early in basketball the way that you can in boxing, I think that Mike McGrath would've done just that tonight.

[Gregory Sager]

Elmhurst 72
Benedictine 66

Very entertaining game to watch. It was see-saw until about twelve minutes remained on the clock, at which point the 'jays opened up a little breathing space. BU made a late run, but the 'jays staved off the Bennies. Zack Boyd had 21, D'Ante Foster 15, and Jerome Robinson 10 for EC.

Tim Calderwood, who called the game, is the broadcaster for both teams. That made for a more interesting webcast, as he has a lot of info about and insights into both programs. I don't think that he drew two paychecks for working this game, though.

[iwu70]

I said several weeks ago that NCC was surprisingly "disappointing" so far, and I stand by that.  For a team that was picked by many on this board as 2nd or 3rd in the CCIW race upcoming, the Cardinals have really not put together that impressive a pre-CCIW run.  Augie is surely demonstrating its predicted ranking, though I still lean to the view that Wheaton and IWU will fight it out for second, and hopefully challenge Augie as well, especially in their games at home against AU.

Let's see which Titan team shows up this Saturday vs. Wash U.  Hopefully they can be the only CCIW team to date to come out with a win vs. Wash U. 

IWU70 

[iwumichigander]

I said several weeks ago that NCC was surprisingly "disappointing" so far, and I stand by that.  For a team that was picked by many on this board as 2nd or 3rd in the CCIW race upcoming, the Cardinals have really not put together that impressive a pre-CCIW run.  Augie is surely demonstrating its predicted ranking, though I still lean to the view that Wheaton and IWU will fight it out for second, and hopefully challenge Augie as well, especially in their games at home against AU.

Let's see which Titan team shows up this Saturday vs. Wash U.  Hopefully they can be the only CCIW team to date to come out with a win vs. Wash U. 

IWU70

Not discounting the Cards just yet; young team needs to find ways to put all the pieces together and past experience -- that Cards coaching staff finds a way

[Gregory Sager]

I said several weeks ago that NCC was surprisingly "disappointing" so far, and I stand by that.  For a team that was picked by many on this board as 2nd or 3rd in the CCIW race upcoming, the Cardinals have really not put together that impressive a pre-CCIW run.  Augie is surely demonstrating its predicted ranking, though I still lean to the view that Wheaton and IWU will fight it out for second, and hopefully challenge Augie as well, especially in their games at home against AU.

Let's see which Titan team shows up this Saturday vs. Wash U.  Hopefully they can be the only CCIW team to date to come out with a win vs. Wash U. 

IWU70

Not discounting the Cards just yet; young team needs to find ways to put all the pieces together and past experience -- that Cards coaching staff finds a way

Yes, plus it's a team with a thin roster that's been fighting injury problems.

[Titan Q]

Ron Rose interview on WJBC radio this morning...

http://wjbc.com/ex-teammates-to-square-off-at-shirk-center/

[augie_superfan]

I know some of you have been probably been checking out my basketball ranking website from time to time.  With the few amount of games this week, I was playing with the data a bit and created a little program that simulates the conference season using the current rankings for each team.  I decided to do this for the CCIW to see what the "average" conference records would be if the current rankings were a true measuring stick of the teams' relative strengths.  By taking the rankings of two teams, I can figure out the probability that the higher ranked team would win a given game.  I simulated the season 100,000 times and have the results below:

Team	Max Wins	Min Wins	Avg. Wins	95% CI
Augustana	14	7	12.1	9.8-14.0
Wheaton	14	4	11.2	8.8-13.7
IWU	14	5	10.4	7.8-13.0
Carthage	12	0	6.4	3.6-9.3
Elmhurst	12	1	6.4	3.5-9.2
NCC	12	0	4.3	1.6-7.0
NPU	10	0	3.9	1.3-6.6
Millikin	7	0	1.3	0-3.4

95% CI:  means there is a 95% chance that each teams' # of wins falls within this range.

So, before the conference season starts I'll rerun these with the updated rankings and probabilities and we'll see if the teams' wins come anywhere close to the predictions.  I feel like the current system doesn't allow for many upsets so I may tweak the program to produce a bit more variety.  Especially because even though as badly as NCC's results have been, I have a suspicion that come conference play, they'll be better than a team that would only win 4-5 games in the CCIW.

Comments, suggestions welcome.

[Titan Q]

I know some of you have been probably been checking out my basketball ranking website from time to time.  With the few amount of games this week, I was playing with the data a bit and created a little program that simulates the conference season using the current rankings for each team.  I decided to do this for the CCIW to see what the "average" conference records would be if the current rankings were a true measuring stick of the teams' relative strengths.  By taking the rankings of two teams, I can figure out the probability that the higher ranked team would win a given game.  I simulated the season 100,000 times and have the results below:

Team	Max Wins	Min Wins	Avg. Wins	95% CI
Augustana	14	7	12.1	9.8-14.0
Wheaton	14	4	11.2	8.8-13.7
IWU	14	5	10.4	7.8-13.0
Carthage	12	0	6.4	3.6-9.3
Elmhurst	12	1	6.4	3.5-9.2
NCC	12	0	4.3	1.6-7.0
NPU	10	0	3.9	1.3-6.6
Millikin	7	0	1.3	0-3.4

95% CI:  means there is a 95% chance that each teams' # of wins falls within this range.

So, before the conference season starts I'll rerun these with the updated rankings and probabilities and we'll see if the teams' wins come anywhere close to the predictions.  I feel like the current system doesn't allow for many upsets so I may tweak the program to produce a bit more variety.  Especially because even though as badly as NCC's results have been, I have a suspicion that come conference play, they'll be better than a team that would only win 4-5 games in the CCIW.

Comments, suggestions welcome.

Very cool...I love what you have been building with this.  A couple thoughts...

* The last CCIW team to go undefeated in league play was Augustana in 1973...38 consecutive seasons now where the champ as had at least 1 loss.  I think it would make sense to build something into your formula that almost makes 14 max wins impossible. 

* I think it would make sense to increase your home court advantage factor for conference games.  I believe you are using 2.5, right?  Anecdotally it seems to me like that might not be enough...but I don't have the data to back that up.

Again, thanks for all you've done on the D3 Basketball Index.

[Titan Q]

Regarding IWU vs Wash U today (3:00pm), I'll simply copy/paste what I posted here Sunday. 

This is a very big in-region game for both teams.  With 2 in-region losses a piece already, neither team can afford a third.  Should be a great game.
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I'm interested to see how the IWU/Wash U game plays out.  On paper, I think the Titans matchup pretty well...

PG
(IWU) Eliud Gonzalez, 5-9/170 Sr - 5.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 6.5 apg, 2.8 A:TO
(Wash U) Ben Hoener, 6-0/150 Jr - 4.3 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 4.3 apg, 2.3 A:TO

SG
(IWU) Jordan Zimmer, 6-5/190 Sr - 11.0 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 1.3 apg, 22-53 3-point (.415)
(Wash U) Tim Cooney, 6-3/185 So - 5.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1-15 3-point (.067)

SF
(Wash U) Dylan Richter, 6-3/205 Sr - 17.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 58-126 FG (.460), 23-64 3-point (.359)
(IWU) John Koschnnitzky, 6-6/205 Sr - 10.0 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 28-34 FG (.438), 9-24 3-point (.375)

PF
(IWU) Victor Davis, 6-5/225 So - 11.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 36-59 FG (.610)
(Wash U) Matt Palucki, 6-6/205 Fr - 6.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 23-49 FG (.469)

C
(IWU) Kevin Reed, 6-7/225 Jr - 11.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 39-54 FG (.722)
(Wash U) Alex Toth, 6-6/220 Sr - 8.8 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 27-59 FG (.458)

Bench
(Wash U) Brayden Tuescher (SG), 6-3/190 Fr - 13.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.8 apg, 18-42 3-point (.429), 21 min/g
(IWU) Stephen Rudnicki (PG/SG), 6-3/173 Sr - 4.6 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 2.6 apg, 16 min/g

(IWU) Nick Anderson (C), 6-9/200 So - 6.6 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 19-30 FG (.633), 14 min/g
(Wash U) Robert Burnett (C), 6-7/225 Jr - 4.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 15-28 FG (.536), 13 min/g

(IWU) Andrew Ziemnik (PF), 6-5/225 So - 5.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 13-29 FG (.448), 17 min/g
(Wash U) Nick Burt (PF), 6-5/205 Fr - 3.0 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 11-21 FG (.524), 7 min/g

(IWU) David Molinari (PG), 6-1/180 Fr - 5.1 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 2.8 apt, 17 min/g
(Wash U) Alan Aboona (PG), 6-1/180 So - 2.6 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 2.7 apg, 13 min/g

(IWU) Eric Dortch (SF), 6-3/210 So - 4.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 14 min/g



I really believe these matchups are pretty even overall.  A few thoughts...

- IWU has to find a way to contain Richter, but the Titans do have two good defenders at the 3 in 6-6 John Koschnitzky and 6-3 Eric Dortch - both are extremely athletic, like Richter.  IWU should at least be able to make Richter work very hard for his points. 

- I think Wash U has a tough matchup with IWU sophomore Victor Davis - freshman Matt Palucki might have trouble handling the very strong, physical, and athletic Davis.   (Anyone know the extent of Chris Klimek's injury?  Klimek was Wash U's starting 4 during the first 4 games.)

- Love the battle of Prospect H.S. centers - Alex Toth vs Kevin Reed.  The "Camardella Bowl" in the post.

- On the perimeter, Wash U has to deal with Jordan Zimmer...IWU has to deal with freshman stud Brayden Teuscher.

- Both teams have a number of good young players - 5 of the players in IWU's rotation are underclassmen (with 6-4 sophomore guard Brady Zimmer injured), 5 of the players in Wash U's rotation are underclassmen (with 6-5 sophomore F Chris Klimek injured).  As has been the case for 20 years or so now, IWU and Wash U are set up for many great battles in the future.


I will be very surprised if this is not a very tight game the entire way.  If the Titans play like they have in their 6 wins, they have a great chance of winning this one.  If the @Ripon/@Whitewater IWU team shows up, Wash U will win in a blowout.

[Titan Q]

From 4 years ago this week...

http://basketball.dailyherald.com/story/?id=98295


When your outside shots aren't falling, it sure helps to have a couple of big guys who can dominate inside.

Enter 6-foot-6 Prospect frontcourt players Kevin Reed and Alex Toth.

[augiefan]

With the home court advantage I predict a 5 point Wesleyan victory today. Two very talented teams, so it should be a good one.

I also suggest we recall that NCC had an equally unimpressive nonconference record last year, but they were virtually unbeatable once the CCIW conference games commenced. There is too much talent there to write off the Cardinals.

I also predict the CCIW champ this year will have at least 2 conference losses.

[carthagealum]

Cardinal Stritch preview of the Carthage-Stritch game at 3 pm today: http://www.stritchwolves.com/news/2011/12/17/MBB_1217113717.aspx?path=mbball

Stritch is 9-2 this year and is coming off some solid wins. Should be an interesting game, and a test of Carthage having seemingly settled into a style and rotation this year.

The game will be webcast at http://www.stritchwolves.com/gameday

[Titan Q]

Poster Hoosier Titan breaks down some stuff that seems much more complicated than CCIW basketball...

http://wjbc.com/the-significance-of-discovering-earth-2-0/