MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[AndOne]

North Central thumped Manchester, 62-38, this afternoon in the airplane hangar. Vince Kmiec led the Cards off the bench with 17, while Aaron Tiknis contributed 14 and C.J. Goldthree chipped in 12, and the latter two led NCC with eight boards apiece. Looks like this one was never close; NCC led by twenty at the half.

On a night where Kevin Gillespie didn't score a point (6 assists  ), Landon Gamble scored only 2, and Derek Raridon 4, this game was not even as close as the final 24 point spread might seem to indicate. At one point NCC led by 38 at 56-18, with the differential still on the way upward. Then, with 7:22 remaining Todd Raridon began substituting liberally until every player who dressed saw the court. Over that final time frame, Manchester outscored the Cardinals 20-6 to reduce the final margin to 24.

Vince Kmiec was the night's #1 star, coming off the bench to score 17 and collect 6 rebounds in 20 minutes of action. He put on a dazzling display of long range shooting, canning 5 of 7 three pointers, with many coming from insanely far beyond the arc.

*I previously opined that NCC's Aaron Tiknis appears to be on his way to being one of the conference's top all-around players. Continuing on that path last evening, Aaron's stat line showed 14 points on 6 of 8 shooting, including 2 of 2 on 3s, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 TO, 3 blocks, and 4 steals.

Coach Brad Nadborne, his staff, and the Manchester players are a class act. Luck to them as the season continues.

[Titan Q]

Seems like you're placing an awful lot of pressure on Mr. Zimmer. He make, they win. He misses, they lose.

That's not really what I meant.  As I posted, the benefits of Zimmer being aggressive are twofold - "...not just Zimmer's production, but what it does to create scoring opportunities for other Titans."  The more the opponent has to pay attention to Zimmer, the more that opens up the floor for Koschnitzky, Davis, Reed (Anderson, Ziemnik, etc). 

Obviously it would be great for IWU if Jordan Zimmer stays this hot from 3-point range.  But even when he cools off, he will help his team's offense by maintaing the Sean Johnson-like scoring mentality he's had lately.

I should also mention that IWU really secured the game last night with Zimmer on the bench.  At the 15:02 mark of the 2nd half, Zimmer picked up his 4th foul with IWU up 5.  He went to the bench for 9 minutes (returned at 5:58).  During those 9 minutes the Titans scored 19 points and opened up as much as an 11-point lead, and led by 8 when Zimmer checked back in.  The Titans have 3 other double digit scorers (Davis, Reed, Koschnitzky) and a few other guys capable of being scorers. 

I don't think Zimmer making shots is what will necessarily determine if IWU has a good or bad CCIW season, but I believe his overall offensive aggressiveness will go a long way in that regard.

[AndOne]

1.  Bosko also had Cary on the bench way too long in the 2nd half, but again, he didn't play well, so that's probably why.

2. There just isn't a player that is consistantly better than Cary even if he isn't playing his A-game.

1. I'd say his not playing well is a pretty good reason.   

2. Isn't Malcom Kelly at least on a par with Mr. Cary?   

[Titan Q]

As far as Bosko's comments go, I think he is being political.  His team didn't get the job done, like they didn't get the job done against Olivet and Calvin.  All three of those games were quite winnable against teams that on paper, Carthage is better than. 

I don't think Carthage is better than Calvin on paper.

[AndOne]

The CCIW is 51-36 (.586), which is really disappointing.

Barring a great postseason performance from the CCIW's representative(s) (it may not be plural this season), this will be the first time since 1997-98 that the CCIW finishes the season under the .600 mark in non-conference play.

Last season the league barely cleared .600 (56-37, .602), and the only reason it made it up and over that mark was because of Augie's Elite Eight run. After three straight years over .700, including the CCIW's best non-con performance ever (2008-09's .793 mark), the league has nosedived precipitously over the past three seasons, going further and further down each time. Last year and the year before I chalked it up to the bottom of the conference really collapsing, Millikin and Elmhurst in particular. This year, however, the entire middle tier of the league hovered around .500 outside the circuit. Only three teams posted the sort of 10-1 and 9-2 records that were typical of the league as a whole only a few short years ago.

The CCIW is really slipping. I haven't entirely figured out why yet.

Augustana, Illinois Wesleyan, and Wheaton are obviously OK.  And on the flip side, we knew coming into 2011-12 that Millikin would be awful...so that is what it is I guess.

The story is all about what is happening with Carthage (6-5), Elmhurst (6-5), North Central (6-5), North Park (4-6).  That 22-21 cumulative non-conference record is shocking.  When the CCIW is "strong", teams 4-7 rack up a lot of non-conference wins.  And we have seen seasons where team #4 was a Top 25/NCAA tournament-caliber team.

What is really confusing is the number of really bad losses among these 4 teams.  If the CCIW is indeed a "power conference" (*see Bosko's quote from last night), you will easily find more than 10 "bad losses" between Carthage, Elmhurst, North Central, and North Park this season - games those teams just should not lose.

I think that the real question here is whether or not those are games that those four teams "just should not lose" after all. In other words, there is a serious question here as to whether or not Carthage, Elmhurst, North Central, and North Park are anything other than undistinguished, run-of-the-mill D3 teams that don't deserve the benefit of the doubt when playing anyone other than the bottom feeders of D3 (Principia, Marian, Cornell, etc.).

The bottom fell out of the conference the past couple of years. Now the middle's fallen out, too. Contra Bosko, I really question whether we deserve "power conference" status right now at all.

I understand that some, perhaps many, will view this statement as a cop-out or something similar along those lines, and I can only speak for North Central. Other teams referenced above might have the same problems.

No doubt North Central has contributed its share of losses to the conference's undistinguished non conference record. 6-5 is certainly not what the Cardinals coaches, players, or fans envisioned at the beginning of the season.
However, I do feel its pretty safe to say that the rash of serious injuries the Cards have sustained so far has been a major factor in its poor 6-5 non conference record. I'm pretty confident in saying that with Kevin Gillespie, they beat Albion, with Aaron Tiknis they beat Simpson, and with Derek Raridon, they beat Scranton. They played like crap at Aurora and Platteville, and deserved to lose those games. I know injuries are part of the deal, but with a full compliment of players they could easily be 9-2. Still, 9-2 would be no guarantee of success over the upcoming conference portion of the schedule. 

[Gregory Sager]

Overtime final from Madison:

Edgewood 72
North Park 71

Mark Holmes: 20 pts, 7 rebs, 6 asts
Mike Gabriel: 15 pts, 6 rebs
Emanuel Crosby: 13 pts
Ro Russell: 10 pts, 6 rebs

NPU didn't play well, but it played well enough to win. Like all tight games, it just came down to a play here or a play there. The decision of Mark Holmes to attempt a trey from the elbow with less than ten seconds left in OT and the Vikes down by only one point wasn't good shot selection, but that is a place where he feels very comfortable taking the shot. And the Vikes did have a couple of tip-in attempts after his miss that they just couldn't get down into the cylinder.

Edgewood's a very strong shooting team, as I outlined yesterday, and although the Eagles had their dead spots in the game they made some tremendous shots down the stretch. Kent Faurote, who scored 29, had a couple of Knuppelesque treys late in regulation that brought Edgewood from behind and actually set them up to win, had not Holmes hit a trey with five seconds left to force overtime (he hit it from the same left elbow spot where he later missed what would've been the game-winner at the end of overtime), and D2 transfer Cashton Craig hit a great 18-footer while drifting in midair to his left for the eventual game-winner with about a dozen seconds remaining that had me shaking my head in "what are you gonna do against that?" fashion. Tip your cap to the Eagles; in the end, more often than not, it comes down to shooting skill, and even though NPU held Edgewood under 42% for the game the Eagles made the big-money shots that they had to make to win the game.

The Vikings themselves shot well from the field (50%), and, although the trey shooting and FT shooting were nothing to write home about, at least they weren't terrible -- although Mike Gabriel's miss of the front end of the one-and-one early in OT hurt. And the Vikes did manage to take advantage of their size disparity by outboarding the Eagles by ten. The problem, as usual, was turnovers; the Vikes coughed it up 19 times to Edgewood's ten. A fistful of those 19 turnovers were charges, and some of those calls probably don't go against NPU if the game is played somewhere other than the Edgedome. But I'm not blaming this one on the refs. NPU simply has to take better care of the ball.

This was a very tough loss to swallow. Pulling out this win would've been a great momentum-builder coming into CCIW play. As it is, it's left the Vikes staggering into Faganel Hall next week with an extremely discouraging 4-7 record.

[Gregory Sager]

The CCIW is 51-36 (.586), which is really disappointing.

Barring a great postseason performance from the CCIW's representative(s) (it may not be plural this season), this will be the first time since 1997-98 that the CCIW finishes the season under the .600 mark in non-conference play.

Last season the league barely cleared .600 (56-37, .602), and the only reason it made it up and over that mark was because of Augie's Elite Eight run. After three straight years over .700, including the CCIW's best non-con performance ever (2008-09's .793 mark), the league has nosedived precipitously over the past three seasons, going further and further down each time. Last year and the year before I chalked it up to the bottom of the conference really collapsing, Millikin and Elmhurst in particular. This year, however, the entire middle tier of the league hovered around .500 outside the circuit. Only three teams posted the sort of 10-1 and 9-2 records that were typical of the league as a whole only a few short years ago.

The CCIW is really slipping. I haven't entirely figured out why yet.

Augustana, Illinois Wesleyan, and Wheaton are obviously OK.  And on the flip side, we knew coming into 2011-12 that Millikin would be awful...so that is what it is I guess.

The story is all about what is happening with Carthage (6-5), Elmhurst (6-5), North Central (6-5), North Park (4-6).  That 22-21 cumulative non-conference record is shocking.  When the CCIW is "strong", teams 4-7 rack up a lot of non-conference wins.  And we have seen seasons where team #4 was a Top 25/NCAA tournament-caliber team.

What is really confusing is the number of really bad losses among these 4 teams.  If the CCIW is indeed a "power conference" (*see Bosko's quote from last night), you will easily find more than 10 "bad losses" between Carthage, Elmhurst, North Central, and North Park this season - games those teams just should not lose.

I think that the real question here is whether or not those are games that those four teams "just should not lose" after all. In other words, there is a serious question here as to whether or not Carthage, Elmhurst, North Central, and North Park are anything other than undistinguished, run-of-the-mill D3 teams that don't deserve the benefit of the doubt when playing anyone other than the bottom feeders of D3 (Principia, Marian, Cornell, etc.).

The bottom fell out of the conference the past couple of years. Now the middle's fallen out, too. Contra Bosko, I really question whether we deserve "power conference" status right now at all.

I understand that some, perhaps many, will view this statement as a cop-out or something similar along those lines, and I can only speak for North Central. Other teams referenced above might have the same problems.

No doubt North Central has contributed its share of losses to the conference's undistinguished non conference record. 6-5 is certainly not what the Cardinals coaches, players, or fans envisioned at the beginning of the season.
However, I do feel its pretty safe to say that the rash of serious injuries the Cards have sustained so far has been a major factor in its poor 6-5 non conference record. I'm pretty confident in saying that with Kevin Gillespie, they beat Albion, with Aaron Tiknis they beat Simpson, and with Derek Raridon, they beat Scranton. They played like crap at Aurora and Platteville, and deserved to lose those games. I know injuries are part of the deal, but with a full compliment of players they could easily be 9-2. Still, 9-2 would be no guarantee of success over the upcoming conference portion of the schedule.

I don't agree. Depth is part of what makes a strong CCIW team a strong CCIW team. It's a key component of a successful basketball team in this day and age of highly physical play. NCC doesn't have that depth; therefore, NCC is suspect in terms of being up to par with regard to what we usually see from a first-division CCIW team -- as long as the CCIW is a power conference, that is, which is the whole point.

[bopol]

1.  Bosko also had Cary on the bench way too long in the 2nd half, but again, he didn't play well, so that's probably why.

2. There just isn't a player that is consistantly better than Cary even if he isn't playing his A-game.

1. I'd say his not playing well is a pretty good reason.   

2. Isn't Malcom Kelly at least on a par with Mr. Cary?   

Well, unless Bosko is going 4 bigs and Kelly, then you need another small besides Kelly.  So, assuming that you will have another small, Cary having an off-game is better than Hill or Sykes in crunch time at this point. 

And I think Carthage is better than Calvin on paper and should have won that game though I will admit that Calvin is better than Washington (MD) and Olivet.

[markerickson]

Carthage lost to Olivet?  Shameful in the Bosco era.

[Gregory Sager]

Carthage lost to Olivet?  Shameful in the Bosco era.

Carthage didn't lose to Olivet. The Red Men have lost to Olivet Nazarene, Hope, Calvin, Lake Forest, and Washington (MD).

[Titan Q]

2011-12 CCIW production by position, non-conference (11 games, final)...


PG
(WC) Jeremy Pflederer, 6-0 Sr – 9.2 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 2.6 apg, 2.0 A:TO
(MU) Rodney Clark, 6-0 Jr – 8.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.7 apg, 0.9 A:TO
(NPU) Roshawn Russell, 5-9 Sr – 8.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.5 apg , 2.0 A:TO
(NCC) Kevin Gillespie, 5-11 Sr – 7.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.5 A:TO
(AC) Brian DeSimone, 6-1 Sr – 7.2 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 3.9 apg, 2.9 A:TO
(IWU) Eliud Gonzalez, 5-9 Sr – 5.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 6.2 apg, 3.0 A:TO
(EC) D'Ante Foster, 5-11 Jr – 5.6 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 3.4 apg, 1.2 A:TO
(CC) Donte Logan, 5-11 Fr – 2.6 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.8 A:TO

SG
(CC) Malcolm Kelly, 6-0 Jr  19.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.5 apg, 32-82 3-point (.390)
(WC) Aaron Garriott, 6-4 Jr – 15.2 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 2.6 agp, 13-44 3-point (.295)
(IWU) Jordan Zimmer, 6-5 Sr – 14.7 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 1.0 apg, 41-94 3-point (.436)
(NCC) CJ Goldthree, 6-0 So – 13.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.3 apg, 13-36 3-point (.361)
(AC) Troy Rorer, 6-2 Sr – 10.6 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.3 apg, 8-24 3-point (.333)
(EC) James Robertson, 6-3 Jr – 9.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3.5 apg, 23-60 3-point (.383)
(MU) Matt Merrigan, 6-0 So – 8.7 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.5 apg, 9-39 3-point (.231)
(NPU) Kendall Greer, 6-4 Sr – 6.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 7-36 3-point (.194)

G/F
(AC) Bryant Voiles, 6-9 Sr – 18.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 48-105 FG (.457)
(EC) Zack Boyd, 6-3 Sr – 15.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 65-137 FG (.474)
(NPU) Mark Holmes, 6-6 Jr – 13.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 58-147 FG (.395)
(NCC) Derek Raridon, 6-6 Jr – 13.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 35-81 FG (.432)
(CC) Max Cary, 6-4 Sr – 11.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.1 apg, 38-73 FG (.521)
(IWU) John Koschnitzky, 6-6 Sr – 10.4 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 42-101 FG (.416)
(MU) Nikko Robertson, 6-4 So – 8.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 39-97 FG (.402)
(WC) Tyler Peters, 6-4 So – 8.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.6 apg, 35-65 FG (.538)

PF
(WC) Tim McCrary, 6-6 Sr – 17.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 69-121 FG (.570)
(CC) Mitch Thompson, 6-6 Jr – 11.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 54-105 FG (.514)
(NPU) Mike Gabriel, 6-8 So – 10.8 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 40-71 FG (.563)
(IWU) Victor Davis, 6-5 So – 10.7 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 46-79 FG (.582)
(NCC) Aaron Tiknis, 6-6 Jr – 9.2 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 32-59 FG (.542)
(EC) Nick Sanford, 6-4 So – 8.7 rpg, 7.1 rpg, 38-70 FG (.543)
(AC) George Dexter, 6-7 Jr – 4.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 19-45 FG (.396)
(MU) Kelvin Jacobs, 6-4 Jr – 3.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 18-48 FG (.375)

F/C
(NCC) Landon Gamble, 6-6 So – 14.4 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 60-121 FG (.496)
(EC) Jerome Robinson, 6-6 Sr – 13.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 66-113 FG (.584)
(IWU) Kevin Reed, 6-7 Jr – 10.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 51-77 FG (.662)
(NPU) Emmanuel Crosby, 6-7 Sr – 9.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 45-83 FG (.542)
(CC) Luke Johnson, 6-9 Fr – 9.3 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 41-101 FG (.406)
(MU) Brock Von Nordeck, 6-9 Jr – 9.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 19-46 FG (.413)
(WC) Spencer Schultze, 6-6 Sr – 8.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 30-56 FG (.536)
(AC) Brandon Kunz, 6-7 Jr – 6.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 26-44 FG (.591)

Bench (10.0+ minutes/game and played in half or more of games)
(WC) Nate Serenius, 6-3 Jr G, 19.2 min/game – 7.2 ppg, 2.1 rpg
(AC) Chris Anderson, 6-4 Sr G, 13.8 min/game – 6.4 ppg, 1.9 rpg
(IWU) Nick Anderson, 6-9 So C , 14.5 min/game - 6.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg
(NCC) Vince Kmiec, 6-4 So G, 18.3 min/game – 6.1 ppg, 2.7 rpg
(MU) Aaron Hall, 6-3 Fr G, 22.0 min/game – 5.5 ppg, 2.0 rpg
(CC) Tyler Pierce, 6-5 Jr, 19.6 min/game – 5.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg
(NCC) Charlie Rosenberg, 6-5 So F, 13.5 min/game – 5.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg
(AC) Kameron Norton, 6-7 Jr C, 18.7 min/game – 5.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg
(IWU) Andrew Ziemnik, 6-5 So F, 17.3 min/game – 5.2 ppg, 3.9 rpg,
(IWU) David Molinari, 6-1 Fr G, 16.9 min/game – 5.1 ppg, 2.8 apg
(NPU) Christian Alsing, 6-7 Sr F, 12.9 min/game – 4.9 ppg, 2.0 rpg
(AC) Danielius Jurgutis, 6-0 Fr G, 12.1 min/game – 4.6 ppg, 1.5 apg
(IWU) Stephen Rudnicki, 6-3 Sr G, 16.2 min/game – 4.5 ppg, 2.5 apg
(EC) Eric Dornfiled, 6-7 Jr F, 17.9 min/game – 4.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg
(EC) Brandon Grubl, 6-2 Fr G, 14.9 min/game – 4.4 ppg, 1.8 apg
(CC) Reese Herth, 6-2 Fr G, 13.4 min/game – 3.9 ppg, 1.5 rpg
(NPU) Reggie McGree, 6-2 Fr G, 13.0 min/game – 3.7 ppg, 1.1 rpg
(CC) Kevin Sykes, 6-3 So G, 12.1 min/game – 3.5 ppg, 1.5 rpg
(AC) Griffin Dwyer, 6-1 Sr G, 10.0 min/game – 3.6 ppg, 1.5 rpg
(MU) Brady Knapp, 6-6 Fr C, 18.9 min/game – 3.3 ppg, 2.7 rpg
(MU) Jaelen Jones, 6-5 Fr F, 11.5 min/game – 3.2 ppg, 2.1 rpg
(IWU) Eric Dortch, 6-3 So F, 13.5 min/game - 3.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg
(WC) Tad Fisher, 6-0 So G, 12.1 min/game – 3.1 ppg, 1.0 rpg
(NCC) Mike Boyd, 6-1 F G, 14.2 min/game – 3.0 ppg, 0.7 rpg
(NPU) Josh McNaughton, 5-11 So G, 10.9 min/game – 2.9 ppg, 1.9 rpg
(CC) Nick Bauch, 6-7 So C, 11.6 min/game – 2.8 ppg, 2.5 rpg
(WC) Nathan Haynes, 6-6 So F,  14.0 min/game – 1.9 ppg, 2.5 rpg
(NPU) Trent Kucera, 5-10 Fr G, 11.9 min/game – 1.5 ppg, 0.6 rpg
(NPU) Brett Peterson, 6-1 So G, 12.7 min/game– 0.6 ppg, 2.0 rpg,
(MU) Ryan Albert, 6-3 Fr F, 10.3 min/game – 0.3 ppg, 1.2 rpg

Injured?
(EC) Mike McCurdy, 6-0 Sr PG, 23.7 min/game – 7.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.3 apg

[Titan Q]

Overtime final from Madison:

Edgewood 72
North Park 71

I watched almost all of this game yesterday afternoon.  Random thoughts...

* Both teams had matchup problems.  North Park had trouble preventing Edgewood's 5-guard lineup from getting good perimeter looks, but Edgewood couldn't begin to handle North Park inside.  Just two completely different teams.

* Edgewood is small but they have a bunch of "gamer"-type players.  They're a solid team - too small to do any damage in the tournament, but one of those teams you might not be excited to get matched up with early because your bigger, slower team is going to have work hard to guard the Eagles.  If in the CCIW, the Eagles would probably be in the 4th place mix this year - I can't see them finishing ahead of Augie, Wheaton, or IWU through 14 games.  They'd be right in the mix with that group of inconsistent teams (NCC, Carthage, North Park, Elmhurst) - most of those CCIW teams are more talented than Edgewood, but the Eagles can play with all of them, as they did with North Park.

* Mark Holmes was the hero at the end of regulation, hitting a long 3 from between the left wing and top of the key to send the game to OT.  In the final seconds of OT, down just 1, he made a really bad decision to shoot the same exact shot however.  The Vikings got the ball off a missed FT with about 16 seconds to play.  Down just 1, they absolutely had to get the ball inside to one of the big guys - Edgewood would have had to foul to prevent an easy game winner.  Instead Holmes fired a 3 with about 7 seconds to play...again, he had just made that shot at the end of regulation, but the time and situation were completely different.

* Based on talent alone, North Park has no business finishing outside of the CCIW's top four.  6-8 D1 transfer Mike Gabriel, a perfect D3 4-man, is a real stud.  He not only has great height in the low post, but he makes good, quick moves around the basket...just a tough matchup.  6-6 D1 transfer Mark Holmes is a rare D3 talent too and a really nice wing.  6-7 senior Emmanuel Crosby, a two-time All-CCIW performer, is a pure 5 with great size and nice touch around the basket.  Roshawn Russell provides quickness at the point and does a pretty nice job.  NPU is probably lacking another good 3-point shooter to complement Holmes, but still, the Vikings should have much better non-conference results (both in terms of wins and loss, and the margin of games) based on that frontcourt trio.  North Park has really underachieved so far this season in my estimation, but is very capable of finishing 4th if they start playing better as a team.  NPU starts - @ Elmhurst, vs IWU, @ Carthage.  I think they'll need to be at least 2-1 to start a conference tournament push.

[augie_superfan]

I re-ran those predicted conference standings again now that the non-conference portion of the schedule is over.  I tweaked some of the numbers from last time to produce a few more upsets.  As can be seen with the predictions, there is a large gap between teams 1-3 and the rest of the league at this time.  The season was simulated 100000 times.  Hopefully, I can update the simulations after each week's games which will include the actual game results and only simulate the remaining schedule.

*The 95 CI Wins column shows the range in which each team's win totals are predicted to fall within in atleast 95% of the simulations

Team Name   Average Wins   95 CI Wins   
Augustana         11.6             9.1   14.0
Carthage             6.4             3.5   9.4
Elmhurst             6.1             3.2   9.1
IWU                  10.5             7.8   13.2
Millikin                1.1             0.0   3.0
North Central       5.1             2.2   8.0
North Park          4.0              1.3   6.8
Wheaton            11.2             8.6   13.7

I also calculated the chances of the teams having more than 11 wins:

Augustana    54.3%
Wheaton       41.6%
IWU             22.9%

I also compiled the chances of winning the conference title outright or by tie for each team and of also making the conference tournament.  Also, here are the conference results in total:

Championship won outright:            74.8%
Championship shared by 2 teams:   21.8%
Championship shared by 3 teams:   3.4%
Championship shared by 4 teams:   0.04%


Team Name     Outright     Tie         Total        Tourney
Augustana        37.4%    20.7%      58.1%        99.1%
Carthage           0.0%     0.2%        0.2%         46.8%
Elmhurst           0.0%     0.1%         0.1%        37.3%
IWU                 12.2%    13.9%      26.1%       96.8%
Millikin               0.0%     0.0%       0.0%          0.0%
North Central     0.0%     0.0%       0.0%         16.2%
North Park         0.0%     0.0%       0.0%           5.2%
Wheaton           25.1%    19.1%     44.2%        98.5%

[Gregory Sager]

* Based on talent alone, North Park has no business finishing outside of the CCIW's top four.  6-8 D1 transfer Mike Gabriel, a perfect D3 4-man, is a real stud.  He not only has great height in the low post, but he makes good, quick moves around the basket...just a tough matchup.  6-6 D1 transfer Mark Holmes is a rare D3 talent too and a really nice wing.  6-7 senior Emmanuel Crosby, a two-time All-CCIW performer, is a pure 5 with great size and nice touch around the basket.  Roshawn Russell provides quickness at the point and does a pretty nice job.  NPU is probably lacking another good 3-point shooter to complement Holmes, but still, the Vikings should have much better non-conference results (both in terms of wins and loss, and the margin of games) based on that frontcourt trio.  North Park has really underachieved so far this season in my estimation, but is very capable of finishing 4th if they start playing better as a team.  NPU starts - @ Elmhurst, vs IWU, @ Carthage.  I think they'll need to be at least 2-1 to start a conference tournament push.

Bob, I don't agree with your statement that "North Park has no business finishing outside of the CCIW's top four." My reasoning is the same reasoning that I gave to Mark as to why I think that North Central has slipped this year: Depth. The Vikings don't have it. Dylan Howard is forced to use some players off the bench who really have no business playing varsity this year and who definitely need a year of JV seasoning that they aren't going to get due to NPU's roster attrition. Since you watched the game yesterday, you saw that for yourself. (In particular, the loss of senior D.A. Robinson due to his leaving the team four days before the opener at Eureka was an absolute killer.)

Emanuel Crosby, Mike Gabriel, Mark Holmes, Kendell Greer, and Ro Russell will be called upon to play marathon minutes this season. That's not a recipe for success. My hope is that: a) each of them stays healthy; b) at least a couple of guys off the bench -- Reggie McGee, Brett Peterson, and Josh McNaughton being the likely candidates -- surprise me by bringing their games up to CCIW-level quality in a big hurry; and c) the league proves to have sunk to the point where a team with no depth can compete.

[Titan Q]

Bob, I don't agree with your statement that "North Park has no business finishing outside of the CCIW's top four." My reasoning is the same reasoning that I gave to Mark as to why I think that North Central has slipped this year: Depth. The Vikings don't have it. Dylan Howard is forced to use some players off the bench who really have no business playing varsity this year and who definitely need a year of JV seasoning that they aren't going to get due to NPU's roster attrition. Since you watched the game yesterday, you saw that for yourself. (In particular, the loss of senior D.A. Robinson due to his leaving the team four days before the opener at Eureka was an absolute killer.)

Emanuel Crosby, Mike Gabriel, Mark Holmes, Kendell Greer, and Ro Russell will be called upon to play marathon minutes this season. That's not a recipe for success. My hope is that: a) each of them stays healthy; b) at least a couple of guys off the bench -- Reggie McGee, Brett Peterson, and Josh McNaughton being the likely candidates -- surprise me by bringing their games up to CCIW-level quality in a big hurry; and c) the league proves to have sunk to the point where a team with no depth can compete.

Depth is certainly an issue for your boys, Greg, and I suppose my statement was too strong.  I do feel, however, that behind that Holmes/Gabriel/Crosby frontcourt and a few pretty solid perimeter guys, the Vikings should be very much in the conference tournament picture. 

Also keep in mind, there are several CCIW rotations with "issues" this season.  I believe Augustana, Wheaton, and Illinois Wesleyan, to varying degrees, have "complete" rotations - each has 5 good starters (by CCIW standards) and nice depth.  It seems to me, however, that the other 5 teams all have some pretty significant questions with their rotations heading into league play. 

It's going to be a very interesting CCIW season...as always.