MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Pat Coleman]

+1

[wheels81]

PS, interesting points.  I think it has a lot to do with perception of some particular factor that could explain the 'horrible stretch'.  With Wheaton, it was losing a NPOY candidate (IIRC, they went 1-2 without him, and lost one more in his first game back when he was clearly not yet KENT RAYMOND; they lost a lot of ground in the polls, but bounced back once they showed who they were WITH him healthy).  If a team has a new coach, and starts very poorly, but then gets on fire, allowances may be made.  But there probably has to be a 'story' explaining the bad stretch.  (NCC has the injury story, but whether or not it is widely known and whether or not it is compelling enough ...)

IF (God forbid! ) NCC beats IWU on Tuesday, I suspect that 1 point will become 30-40 points, despite their overall record.  If the 'good guys' win, NCC is probably gonna have to hope to win the conference tourney.

You could put your thoughts into action by rejoining the PP!

Are you "Hawk" Harrelson?

[NCF]

IF (God forbid! ) NCC beats IWU on Tuesday, I suspect that 1 point will become 30-40 points, despite their overall record.  If the 'good guys' win, NCC is probably gonna have to hope to win the conference tourney.

I think the "good guys"    in red have a great shot at winning tonight. I might even have to make the drive up there if the weather is not too bad.

[NCF]

und63, down boy,down boy.

IWU70

Hey, the guy can dream can't he?

[74impala]

Where has AndOne been?  Haven't seen much of him since the Wheaton - NCC game.

[petemcb]

The more important question for NCC/IWU is will there be a JV game and will NCC be taking a coach or vans?

Good stuff these days!  +k

[petemcb]

Although that does bring up a good question:  does anyone know if there IS a JV game at either NCC or Wheaton tonight?  I can fit two games in tonight and that might be the deciding factor in which game I get to.

[TitanPride]

I know the IWU JV team is not playing NCC tonight.  Can't speak to Wheaton.

[74impala]

Wheaton does have a JV game at 5:15

[iwu70]

und63, dream on my friend.   

No takers on key points for tonights IWU-NCC showdown???

I'll try a few:

* This Titan team plays well when the post is secured, winning the rebounding and interior defensive battle, getting out in transition.  I think that will be so tonight.  Basically how the combination of the 6-7 IWU bigs matches up in the post area with the NCC post players.

* Depth, and length of rotation could play a part, especially in a close, or OT, game.  Who has the freshest troops, freshest legs to throw into the battle, and IWU surely has a possible advantage here, even going as deep as Musselman and Overstreet, beyond the normal varsity rotation, if needed.

* Defensive intensity overall, and how much the Titans new-found strong defensive play can disrupt what must be very crisp, efficient offensive sets by NCC.

* Of course, how much scoring production IWU gets from Zimmer and the other wing, perimeter players.  One has to believe there will be a few new sets, new crinkles in the IWU offense tonight to free Zimmer from treyville.  They've been getting pretty good output from Rudnicki and Gonzalez as well as their good normal ball-control, defense and FT shooting contributions, esp. in close games.

********

Pgraph article today says Molinari still grounded, but working out and making progress.  Not to play vs. NCC.  Perhaps back in 1-2 more games.  Also, Connor Wheeler (right spelling, Q?), has been shut down for the year with shin stress fractures, so they want him to rest and heal up for future seasons, hence the JV squad is down to only 6 guys.  No JV game at NCC tonight, according to earlier reports on this board.

As usual, in close games like this, key is a few extra possessions, so Titans must try to win the rebounding, TOs, steals and blocks score lines, as well as shooting a good percentage from 2, 3 and FT line.  Basic solid IWU offense, with good markers in these lines will, I think, get the job done tonight vs. NCC.  One of the changes from previous seasons is that the Titans are making some mark with steals, blocks, etc. unlike in previous CCIW seasons, when the defensive mindset was more passive. 

GO TITANS.  Bring home a good road W.  Should be a pretty good road crowd up there, including the fan bus group. 

IWU70 

[sac]

There's been a little talk about Augustana before and after the departure of Luke Scarlata, such as are they the CCIW favorite or a top 25 team.  Last night I used offensive and defensive efficiency calculations for Augie before and after.


First 10 games with Luke Scarlata
eff= points per 100 possessions

Offense eff:  109.70
Defense eff:  84.78

....these numbers were the best in the CCIW and likely a top 5 team.

Last 5 games without Luke Scarlata

Offense eff:  102.46
Defense eff:    87.88

That's a pretty significant drop-off in offense, and a small drop in defense.  Enough to probably put Augustana behind Ill. Wesleyan and Wheaton.  Probably a borderline top 25 team


But, I think it should be pointed out 2 of those 5 games played without Scarlatta were against Macmurray and Millikin, two of the lowest rated teams in the Midwest Region. 

Filtering out those games, and just using the last 3 vs IWU, NCC and Elmhurst.

Offense eff:   88.87
Defense eff:   99.05

These are pretty alarming if you're an Augustana fan.  These are way off from where they were performing with Scarlatta in the lineup.  Three games is a pretty small sample, but Augustana has 7 more games against similar competition remaining (IWU, Wheaton, Elmhurst, Carthage, NCC).  I think the performance and losses speak for themselves, but here it is in numbers form.


It will be an interesting case to watch, for me at least. 

[AndOne]

Where has AndOne been?  Haven't seen much of him since the Wheaton - NCC game.

Impala--

* If you have to know, I've been sick, but I do appreciate your concern.

* As to where I've been since the Wheaton game, all you had to do was scroll back a couple of pages to post # 27286 on page 1820 where I congratulated Wheaton on their win over NCC and voiced my frustration at the Cards not being able to close the deal and expressing my hope that they will be able to play with all their cards in the near future. I'm sure the injured kids are itching to return to action too!

* A better question might be where have YOU been? Prior to today, your last post was back on 11/22/11, and that was just to report a score. Previous to that insightful post, we have to go all the way back to 9/5/11 to find anything from you. 
Kind of makes you wonder if your purpose here is just to instigate and antagonize rather than discuss and or analyze anything associated with CCIW basketball.   

[AndOne]

sac---

Nice analysis of Augie with/without Scarlata.
With Augie's plethora of bigs, its somewhat surprising another player or combination of players haven't been able to make up for his loss.
Stomper Giovanine is likely wondering about that too.
Even without Scarlata, still plenty of talent in Rock Island. Will be interesting to see if they can they play to their capabilities.

[AndOne]

und63, dream on my friend.   

No takers on key points for tonights IWU-NCC showdown???

I'll try a few:

* This Titan team plays well when the post is secured, winning the rebounding and interior defensive battle, getting out in transition.  I think that will be so tonight.  Basically how the combination of the 6-7 IWU bigs matches up in the post area with the NCC post players.

* Depth, and length of rotation could play a part, especially in a close, or OT, game.  Who has the freshest troops, freshest legs to throw into the battle, and IWU surely has a possible advantage here, even going as deep as Musselman and Overstreet, beyond the normal varsity rotation, if needed.

* Defensive intensity overall, and how much the Titans new-found strong defensive play can disrupt what must be very crisp, efficient offensive sets by NCC.

* Of course, how much scoring production IWU gets from Zimmer and the other wing, perimeter players.  One has to believe there will be a few new sets, new crinkles in the IWU offense tonight to free Zimmer from treyville.  They've been getting pretty good output from Rudnicki and Gonzalez as well as their good normal ball-control, defense and FT shooting contributions, esp. in close games.

********

Pgraph article today says Molinari still grounded, but working out and making progress.  Not to play vs. NCC.  Perhaps back in 1-2 more games.  Also, Connor Wheeler (right spelling, Q?), has been shut down for the year with shin stress fractures, so they want him to rest and heal up for future seasons, hence the JV squad is down to only 6 guys.  No JV game at NCC tonight, according to earlier reports on this board.

As usual, in close games like this, key is a few extra possessions, so Titans must try to win the rebounding, TOs, steals and blocks score lines, as well as shooting a good percentage from 2, 3 and FT line.  Basic solid IWU offense, with good markers in these lines will, I think, get the job done tonight vs. NCC.  One of the changes from previous seasons is that the Titans are making some mark with steals, blocks, etc. unlike in previous CCIW seasons, when the defensive mindset was more passive. 

GO TITANS.  Bring home a good road W.  Should be a pretty good road crowd up there, including the fan bus group. 

IWU70

IWU---

As you indicate, depth could likely be an important factor in tonight's game. The Cards starters can obviously play with anyone. Beyond that, it becomes a game of attrition. It would greatly help if someone from the NCC bench could make a noticeable contribution tonight, either offensively or defensively.

As far as Zimmer, I'm sure the Cards will change up defenders on him throughout the evening, thus forcing him to operate against different defensive strengths.

Other important factors will be a) How often the Cards, especially Derek Raridon and Kevin Gillespie, can get to the line. If they are successful in so doing, I think that will be a big boost to NCC's fortunes, and b) who wins the TO battle. Which team can force the other into more mistakes will play a big factor.

I'm sensing the rebound battle will be pretty close. If either team loses this battle by a significant margin, its lights out.

Another factor that I'm hoping might work in the Cards favor is the bigger open background expanse in the infamous cavernous "hangar." IWU is used to a much more compact shooting background when playing in the friendly confines of the Shirk Center than in the hangar which has so much open space behind the baskets.

Lastly, if CJ Goldthree can return tonight, and play at his usual level, that will be a definite plus.   

[iwu70]

AndOne, all good and useful points.  The quote in today's Pgraph from the NCC Coach was that Goldtree would probably play some minutes tonight, but he wasn't sure what he'd get given Goldtree's layoff due to injury.

Yes, I've heard about the "shooting background" issue in previous seasons.  Let's hope the IWU trey shooters can get out there early and adjust to it.  Trey shooting is a big part of the IWU attack.   It can make a big difference if you're not used to the environment. 

I think the battle of the bigs, limiting Raridon and other NCC bigs has to be a big priority for IWU's 6-7 bigs in their rotation.  They will throw alot of fresh legs into the battle.  RBs, TOs, number of possessions will play a big part if this game is close, into OT, as in previous close matchups with these two teams.   

Is there any video stream tonight . . .or only audio/live stats?

Should be a good one. 

IWU70