MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

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NCF

Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 29, 2012, 03:52:01 PM
Quote from: newcardfan on February 29, 2012, 03:31:47 PM
Quote from: Just Bill on February 29, 2012, 03:24:46 PM
It spreads like a virus.

And if you insist on reincarnation Professor Pedantic, I will have to call on Dr. Grumblepants to counter your arguments.

I am not insisting on anything, however, I did find some humor in the above posts. I would like to hear Dr. Grumblepants at some point, he sounds interesting.  ;) :D ;D ;) :D ;D

To meet Dr. Grumblepants, the Legal AxolotlTM, Kiki the Vegas call girl, Superfoot Wallace, and a host of other very interesting inhabitants, just click here, and you, too, can fall down Alice's Just Bill's rabbit hole.
I will have to do this later as track practice will be starting shortly!! 8-)
CCIW FOOTBALL CHAMPIONS '06-'07-'08-'09-'10-'11-'12-'13
CCIW  MEN"S INDOOR TRACK CHAMPIONS: TOTAL DOMINATION SINCE 2001.
CCIW MEN'S OUTDOOR TRACK CHAMPIONS: 35
NATIONAL CHAMPIONS: INDOOR TRACK-'89,'10,'11,'12/OUTDOOR TRACK: '89,'94,'98,'00,'10,'11
2013 OAC post season pick-em tri-champion
2015 CCIW Pick-em co-champion

Dennis_Prikkel

Quote from: newcardfan on February 29, 2012, 03:53:46 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 29, 2012, 03:52:01 PM
Quote from: newcardfan on February 29, 2012, 03:31:47 PM
Quote from: Just Bill on February 29, 2012, 03:24:46 PM
It spreads like a virus.

And if you insist on reincarnation Professor Pedantic, I will have to call on Dr. Grumblepants to counter your arguments.

I am not insisting on anything, however, I did find some humor in the above posts. I would like to hear Dr. Grumblepants at some point, he sounds interesting.  ;) :D ;D ;) :D ;D

To meet Dr. Grumblepants, the Legal AxolotlTM, Kiki the Vegas call girl, Superfoot Wallace, and a host of other very interesting inhabitants, just click here, and you, too, can fall down Alice's Just Bill's rabbit hole.
I will have to do this later as track practice will be starting shortly!! 8-)

The only thing worse than track - is field.
I am determined to be wise, but this was beyond me.

Gregory Sager

Quote from: dennis_prikkel on February 29, 2012, 04:51:40 PM
Quote from: newcardfan on February 29, 2012, 03:53:46 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 29, 2012, 03:52:01 PM
Quote from: newcardfan on February 29, 2012, 03:31:47 PM
Quote from: Just Bill on February 29, 2012, 03:24:46 PM
It spreads like a virus.

And if you insist on reincarnation Professor Pedantic, I will have to call on Dr. Grumblepants to counter your arguments.

I am not insisting on anything, however, I did find some humor in the above posts. I would like to hear Dr. Grumblepants at some point, he sounds interesting.  ;) :D ;D ;) :D ;D

To meet Dr. Grumblepants, the Legal AxolotlTM, Kiki the Vegas call girl, Superfoot Wallace, and a host of other very interesting inhabitants, just click here, and you, too, can fall down Alice's Just Bill's rabbit hole.
I will have to do this later as track practice will be starting shortly!! 8-)

The only thing worse than track - is field.

I was sure that Dennis's sentence was going to end with the word "soccer".
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

cciwrabblerouser

Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 29, 2012, 04:58:04 PM
Quote from: dennis_prikkel on February 29, 2012, 04:51:40 PM
Quote from: newcardfan on February 29, 2012, 03:53:46 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 29, 2012, 03:52:01 PM
Quote from: newcardfan on February 29, 2012, 03:31:47 PM
Quote from: Just Bill on February 29, 2012, 03:24:46 PM
It spreads like a virus.

And if you insist on reincarnation Professor Pedantic, I will have to call on Dr. Grumblepants to counter your arguments.

I am not insisting on anything, however, I did find some humor in the above posts. I would like to hear Dr. Grumblepants at some point, he sounds interesting.  ;) :D ;D ;) :D ;D

To meet Dr. Grumblepants, the Legal AxolotlTM, Kiki the Vegas call girl, Superfoot Wallace, and a host of other very interesting inhabitants, just click here, and you, too, can fall down Alice's Just Bill's rabbit hole.
I will have to do this later as track practice will be starting shortly!! 8-)

The only thing worse than track - is field.

I was sure that Dennis's sentence was going to end with the word "soccer".

so, why do 20 million kids in america play soccer?  so they don't have to watch it!!!

NCF

#28504
Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 29, 2012, 04:58:04 PM
Quote from: dennis_prikkel on February 29, 2012, 04:51:40 PM
Quote from: newcardfan on February 29, 2012, 03:53:46 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 29, 2012, 03:52:01 PM
Quote from: newcardfan on February 29, 2012, 03:31:47 PM
Quote from: Just Bill on February 29, 2012, 03:24:46 PM
It spreads like a virus.

And if you insist on reincarnation Professor Pedantic, I will have to call on Dr. Grumblepants to counter your arguments.

I am not insisting on anything, however, I did find some humor in the above posts. I would like to hear Dr. Grumblepants at some point, he sounds interesting.  ;) :D ;D ;) :D ;D

To meet Dr. Grumblepants, the Legal AxolotlTM, Kiki the Vegas call girl, Superfoot Wallace, and a host of other very interesting inhabitants, just click here, and you, too, can fall down Alice's Just Bill's rabbit hole.
I will have to do this later as track practice will be starting shortly!! 8-)

The only thing worse than track - is field.

I was sure that Dennis's sentence was going to end with the word "soccer".
Soccer would be my choice, but some field events are boring. The short sprints/relays (up to 400 meters) and the hurdles are the best!!
CCIW FOOTBALL CHAMPIONS '06-'07-'08-'09-'10-'11-'12-'13
CCIW  MEN"S INDOOR TRACK CHAMPIONS: TOTAL DOMINATION SINCE 2001.
CCIW MEN'S OUTDOOR TRACK CHAMPIONS: 35
NATIONAL CHAMPIONS: INDOOR TRACK-'89,'10,'11,'12/OUTDOOR TRACK: '89,'94,'98,'00,'10,'11
2013 OAC post season pick-em tri-champion
2015 CCIW Pick-em co-champion

Gregory Sager

Personally, I don't have a problem with soccer. (NPU is good at the sport, which helps.) I posted that last post because Dennis has insisted repeatedly in this room that soccer is a Communist plot.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

NCF

Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 29, 2012, 05:36:48 PM
Personally, I don't have a problem with soccer. (NPU is good at the sport, which helps.) I posted that last post because Dennis has insisted repeatedly in this room that soccer is a Communist plot.
I would be inclined to agree with him-probably not a good thing (agreeing with Dennis-not the soccer thing) is it?
CCIW FOOTBALL CHAMPIONS '06-'07-'08-'09-'10-'11-'12-'13
CCIW  MEN"S INDOOR TRACK CHAMPIONS: TOTAL DOMINATION SINCE 2001.
CCIW MEN'S OUTDOOR TRACK CHAMPIONS: 35
NATIONAL CHAMPIONS: INDOOR TRACK-'89,'10,'11,'12/OUTDOOR TRACK: '89,'94,'98,'00,'10,'11
2013 OAC post season pick-em tri-champion
2015 CCIW Pick-em co-champion

NCF

Hey GS your baseball team is good also. I thought I read that somewhere-spring can be enjoyable for North Park fans!
CCIW FOOTBALL CHAMPIONS '06-'07-'08-'09-'10-'11-'12-'13
CCIW  MEN"S INDOOR TRACK CHAMPIONS: TOTAL DOMINATION SINCE 2001.
CCIW MEN'S OUTDOOR TRACK CHAMPIONS: 35
NATIONAL CHAMPIONS: INDOOR TRACK-'89,'10,'11,'12/OUTDOOR TRACK: '89,'94,'98,'00,'10,'11
2013 OAC post season pick-em tri-champion
2015 CCIW Pick-em co-champion

augie_superfan

Quote from: AndOne on February 29, 2012, 12:37:40 AM
Quote from: augie_superfan on February 28, 2012, 06:33:26 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 27, 2012, 02:46:27 PM
If I was an oddsmaker, I'd set it at about 100-1.

My program would set those odds closer to 500-1 but a darn good guess for just off the top of the head.  If you are interested I simulated the tournament 1 million times today and have the percentage of times each team made it to each round.  I'll be uploading those to my site tonight.  Individually, my program gives the following percent chance of each occuring for our CCIW teams:

Chance of reaching:        Sweet 16     Elite 8     Final Four      Championship        Nat. Champ

Wheaton                           30.2%       13.9%      7.2%                4.5%                   2.7%
NCC                                  31.5%       19.3%      8.3%                4.4%                   1.7%
IWU                                  17.2%       10.1%      6.4%                3.8%                   1.7%

The teams are ranked from best to worst in my system: 1) Wheaton  2) IWU  3) NCC

So, as you can see, NCC has the easiest road of the three teams in terms of getting to the second weekend.

Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 28, 2012, 06:56:01 PM
Thanks for that interesting simulation data, a_s, but why did you rank the three CCIW teams that way?

Quote from: augie_superfan on February 28, 2012, 07:45:03 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 28, 2012, 06:56:01 PM
Thanks for that interesting simulation data, a_s, but why did you rank the three CCIW teams that way?

I didn't, those are the results from the entire season's data.  They are all pretty close to each other.  Overall, my system has them ranked #5, #13 and #23 (Wheaton, IWU and NCC)....it also still has Augie #9 which we know isnt true at this point so take it for what you will.

augie_superfan----

I think the flaw in your system is the fact that the NCC Cardinals are currently playing nothing like they did in the early (non-conference) portion of the schedule. Accordingly, the inclusion of data from the entire season may not represent an accurate current picture.
Also, after last weekend, its difficult to understand how you could rank Wheaton and Wesleyan ahead of NCC. As evidence of such, I need only to point out that the system data you're using still ranks Augie above BOTH Wesleyan and NCC, and only slightly behind Wheaton. Lastly, as you, yourself state, regarding Augie being ranked above IWU and NCC, "which we know isn't true at this point."

The defense rests. Cross examination?

I'd hesitate to call it a flaw at the moment.  My calculations from last year showed that actually weighting recent games more heavily decreased the system's ability to predict games correctly.  Somewhat counterintuitive but this fact is backed up in many published papers written by people much smarter than myself.  Maybe that will change with this year's data and if so, I will make the adjustments for future years.  Also, the system is trying to do 2 things:  1) Predict outcomes of future games.  2) Provide a ranking of team's that takes into account the entire year.

The point I said about Augie was just so I wasn't nit-picked by Greg.  If you look at all 4 teams entire season, all 4 ended roughly equal to each other.  Yes, NCC started the worst and finished the best whereas Augie did the opposite but in my system, it just doesn't care. 

If you'd like to post what you think the change in score for those several games you think NCC was affected by injuries, I'd be glad to run the data real quick and let you know how the numbers change.  Just let me know that they would've played Scranton 10 points better or whatever you think.

TitansIWU

Quote from: augie_superfan on February 29, 2012, 07:06:54 PM
Quote from: AndOne on February 29, 2012, 12:37:40 AM
Quote from: augie_superfan on February 28, 2012, 06:33:26 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 27, 2012, 02:46:27 PM
If I was an oddsmaker, I'd set it at about 100-1.

My program would set those odds closer to 500-1 but a darn good guess for just off the top of the head.  If you are interested I simulated the tournament 1 million times today and have the percentage of times each team made it to each round.  I'll be uploading those to my site tonight.  Individually, my program gives the following percent chance of each occuring for our CCIW teams:

Chance of reaching:        Sweet 16     Elite 8     Final Four      Championship        Nat. Champ

Wheaton                           30.2%       13.9%      7.2%                4.5%                   2.7%
NCC                                  31.5%       19.3%      8.3%                4.4%                   1.7%
IWU                                  17.2%       10.1%      6.4%                3.8%                   1.7%

The teams are ranked from best to worst in my system: 1) Wheaton  2) IWU  3) NCC

So, as you can see, NCC has the easiest road of the three teams in terms of getting to the second weekend.

Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 28, 2012, 06:56:01 PM
Thanks for that interesting simulation data, a_s, but why did you rank the three CCIW teams that way?

Quote from: augie_superfan on February 28, 2012, 07:45:03 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 28, 2012, 06:56:01 PM
Thanks for that interesting simulation data, a_s, but why did you rank the three CCIW teams that way?

I didn't, those are the results from the entire season's data.  They are all pretty close to each other.  Overall, my system has them ranked #5, #13 and #23 (Wheaton, IWU and NCC)....it also still has Augie #9 which we know isnt true at this point so take it for what you will.

augie_superfan----

I think the flaw in your system is the fact that the NCC Cardinals are currently playing nothing like they did in the early (non-conference) portion of the schedule. Accordingly, the inclusion of data from the entire season may not represent an accurate current picture.
Also, after last weekend, its difficult to understand how you could rank Wheaton and Wesleyan ahead of NCC. As evidence of such, I need only to point out that the system data you're using still ranks Augie above BOTH Wesleyan and NCC, and only slightly behind Wheaton. Lastly, as you, yourself state, regarding Augie being ranked above IWU and NCC, "which we know isn't true at this point."

The defense rests. Cross examination?

I'd hesitate to call it a flaw at the moment.  My calculations from last year showed that actually weighting recent games more heavily decreased the system's ability to predict games correctly.  Somewhat counterintuitive but this fact is backed up in many published papers written by people much smarter than myself.  Maybe that will change with this year's data and if so, I will make the adjustments for future years.  Also, the system is trying to do 2 things:  1) Predict outcomes of future games.  2) Provide a ranking of team's that takes into account the entire year.

The point I said about Augie was just so I wasn't nit-picked by Greg.  If you look at all 4 teams entire season, all 4 ended roughly equal to each other.  Yes, NCC started the worst and finished the best whereas Augie did the opposite but in my system, it just doesn't care. 

If you'd like to post what you think the change in score for those several games you think NCC was affected by injuries, I'd be glad to run the data real quick and let you know how the numbers change.  Just let me know that they would've played Scranton 10 points better or whatever you think.

I am fascinated when you post what your computer has decided, I say that not in a facetious manner.

I was wondering though, could you build in some sort of momentum based logic that would take into account something such as injured players returning, a team just playing more cohesively, or any other reason where a team's record might not show it, but that you can see by watching that they have improved?

Or is what I am suggesting the very thing that the smarter people have written papers about?

Gregory Sager

Quote from: newcardfan on February 29, 2012, 06:45:16 PM
Hey GS your baseball team is good also.

Yes, I'm quite aware of that. I operate the scoreboard at Holmgren Athletic Complex for NPU baseball games.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

NCF

Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 29, 2012, 07:29:42 PM
Quote from: newcardfan on February 29, 2012, 06:45:16 PM
Hey GS your baseball team is good also.

Yes, I'm quite aware of that. I operate the scoreboard at Holmgren Athletic Complex for NPU baseball games.
I wasn't-until now. 1a learn something new every day. :)
CCIW FOOTBALL CHAMPIONS '06-'07-'08-'09-'10-'11-'12-'13
CCIW  MEN"S INDOOR TRACK CHAMPIONS: TOTAL DOMINATION SINCE 2001.
CCIW MEN'S OUTDOOR TRACK CHAMPIONS: 35
NATIONAL CHAMPIONS: INDOOR TRACK-'89,'10,'11,'12/OUTDOOR TRACK: '89,'94,'98,'00,'10,'11
2013 OAC post season pick-em tri-champion
2015 CCIW Pick-em co-champion

Gregory Sager

Quote from: newcardfan on February 29, 2012, 06:41:22 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 29, 2012, 05:36:48 PM
Personally, I don't have a problem with soccer. (NPU is good at the sport, which helps.) I posted that last post because Dennis has insisted repeatedly in this room that soccer is a Communist plot.
I would be inclined to agree with him-probably not a good thing (agreeing with Dennis-not the soccer thing) is it?

Agreeing with Dennis is pretty much a value-neutral kinda thing, because, even if you agree with him about something, chances are pretty good that you'll be disagreeing with him about something else thirty minutes later. He's a bit like Chinese food in that way. ;)
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

NCF

Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 29, 2012, 07:34:54 PM
Quote from: newcardfan on February 29, 2012, 06:41:22 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 29, 2012, 05:36:48 PM
Personally, I don't have a problem with soccer. (NPU is good at the sport, which helps.) I posted that last post because Dennis has insisted repeatedly in this room that soccer is a Communist plot.
I would be inclined to agree with him-probably not a good thing (agreeing with Dennis-not the soccer thing) is it?

Agreeing with Dennis is pretty much a value-neutral kinda thing, because, even if you agree with him about something, chances are pretty good that you'll be disagreeing with him about something else thirty minutes later. He's a bit like Chinese food in that way. ;)
That works for me-more time I can spend here instead of wasting time:) Hahahahahahahaha can't believe it took me two years to jump in with both feet (even if one of them occasionally end up in my mouth) LOL
CCIW FOOTBALL CHAMPIONS '06-'07-'08-'09-'10-'11-'12-'13
CCIW  MEN"S INDOOR TRACK CHAMPIONS: TOTAL DOMINATION SINCE 2001.
CCIW MEN'S OUTDOOR TRACK CHAMPIONS: 35
NATIONAL CHAMPIONS: INDOOR TRACK-'89,'10,'11,'12/OUTDOOR TRACK: '89,'94,'98,'00,'10,'11
2013 OAC post season pick-em tri-champion
2015 CCIW Pick-em co-champion

Dennis_Prikkel

Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 29, 2012, 04:58:04 PM
Quote from: dennis_prikkel on February 29, 2012, 04:51:40 PM
Quote from: newcardfan on February 29, 2012, 03:53:46 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 29, 2012, 03:52:01 PM
Quote from: newcardfan on February 29, 2012, 03:31:47 PM
Quote from: Just Bill on February 29, 2012, 03:24:46 PM
It spreads like a virus.

And if you insist on reincarnation Professor Pedantic, I will have to call on Dr. Grumblepants to counter your arguments.

I am not insisting on anything, however, I did find some humor in the above posts. I would like to hear Dr. Grumblepants at some point, he sounds interesting.  ;) :D ;D ;) :D ;D

To meet Dr. Grumblepants, the Legal AxolotlTM, Kiki the Vegas call girl, Superfoot Wallace, and a host of other very interesting inhabitants, just click here, and you, too, can fall down Alice's Just Bill's rabbit hole.
I will have to do this later as track practice will be starting shortly!! 8-)

The only thing worse than track - is field.

I was sure that Dennis's sentence was going to end with the word "soccer".

should have put it in quotes - one of the two great sayings from the legendary Jones Ramsey, longtime SID at the University of Texas, who was billed as the world's tallest fat man - his other famous quote

we have two sports at Texas: football and spring football.
I am determined to be wise, but this was beyond me.