MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[NCF]

It spreads like a virus.

And if you insist on reincarnation Professor Pedantic, I will have to call on Dr. Grumblepants to counter your arguments.

I am not insisting on anything, however, I did find some humor in the above posts. I would like to hear Dr. Grumblepants at some point, he sounds interesting. 

To meet Dr. Grumblepants, the Legal Axolotl^TM, Kiki the Vegas call girl, Superfoot Wallace, and a host of other very interesting inhabitants, just click here, and you, too, can fall down Alice's Just Bill's rabbit hole.

I will have to do this later as track practice will be starting shortly!!

[Dennis_Prikkel]

It spreads like a virus.

And if you insist on reincarnation Professor Pedantic, I will have to call on Dr. Grumblepants to counter your arguments.

I am not insisting on anything, however, I did find some humor in the above posts. I would like to hear Dr. Grumblepants at some point, he sounds interesting. 

To meet Dr. Grumblepants, the Legal Axolotl^TM, Kiki the Vegas call girl, Superfoot Wallace, and a host of other very interesting inhabitants, just click here, and you, too, can fall down Alice's Just Bill's rabbit hole.

I will have to do this later as track practice will be starting shortly!!

The only thing worse than track - is field.

[Gregory Sager]

It spreads like a virus.

And if you insist on reincarnation Professor Pedantic, I will have to call on Dr. Grumblepants to counter your arguments.

I am not insisting on anything, however, I did find some humor in the above posts. I would like to hear Dr. Grumblepants at some point, he sounds interesting. 

To meet Dr. Grumblepants, the Legal Axolotl^TM, Kiki the Vegas call girl, Superfoot Wallace, and a host of other very interesting inhabitants, just click here, and you, too, can fall down Alice's Just Bill's rabbit hole.

I will have to do this later as track practice will be starting shortly!!

The only thing worse than track - is field.

I was sure that Dennis's sentence was going to end with the word "soccer".

[cciwrabblerouser]

It spreads like a virus.

And if you insist on reincarnation Professor Pedantic, I will have to call on Dr. Grumblepants to counter your arguments.

I am not insisting on anything, however, I did find some humor in the above posts. I would like to hear Dr. Grumblepants at some point, he sounds interesting. 

To meet Dr. Grumblepants, the Legal Axolotl^TM, Kiki the Vegas call girl, Superfoot Wallace, and a host of other very interesting inhabitants, just click here, and you, too, can fall down Alice's Just Bill's rabbit hole.

I will have to do this later as track practice will be starting shortly!!

The only thing worse than track - is field.

I was sure that Dennis's sentence was going to end with the word "soccer".

so, why do 20 million kids in america play soccer?  so they don't have to watch it!!!

[NCF]

It spreads like a virus.

And if you insist on reincarnation Professor Pedantic, I will have to call on Dr. Grumblepants to counter your arguments.

I am not insisting on anything, however, I did find some humor in the above posts. I would like to hear Dr. Grumblepants at some point, he sounds interesting. 

To meet Dr. Grumblepants, the Legal Axolotl^TM, Kiki the Vegas call girl, Superfoot Wallace, and a host of other very interesting inhabitants, just click here, and you, too, can fall down Alice's Just Bill's rabbit hole.

I will have to do this later as track practice will be starting shortly!!

The only thing worse than track - is field.

I was sure that Dennis's sentence was going to end with the word "soccer".

Soccer would be my choice, but some field events are boring. The short sprints/relays (up to 400 meters) and the hurdles are the best!!

[Gregory Sager]

Personally, I don't have a problem with soccer. (NPU is good at the sport, which helps.) I posted that last post because Dennis has insisted repeatedly in this room that soccer is a Communist plot.

[NCF]

Personally, I don't have a problem with soccer. (NPU is good at the sport, which helps.) I posted that last post because Dennis has insisted repeatedly in this room that soccer is a Communist plot.

I would be inclined to agree with him-probably not a good thing (agreeing with Dennis-not the soccer thing) is it?

[NCF]

Hey GS your baseball team is good also. I thought I read that somewhere-spring can be enjoyable for North Park fans!

[augie_superfan]

If I was an oddsmaker, I'd set it at about 100-1.

My program would set those odds closer to 500-1 but a darn good guess for just off the top of the head.  If you are interested I simulated the tournament 1 million times today and have the percentage of times each team made it to each round.  I'll be uploading those to my site tonight.  Individually, my program gives the following percent chance of each occuring for our CCIW teams:

Chance of reaching:        Sweet 16     Elite 8     Final Four      Championship        Nat. Champ

Wheaton                           30.2%       13.9%      7.2%                4.5%                   2.7%
NCC                                  31.5%       19.3%      8.3%                4.4%                   1.7%
IWU                                  17.2%       10.1%      6.4%                3.8%                   1.7%

The teams are ranked from best to worst in my system: 1) Wheaton  2) IWU  3) NCC

So, as you can see, NCC has the easiest road of the three teams in terms of getting to the second weekend.

Thanks for that interesting simulation data, a_s, but why did you rank the three CCIW teams that way?

Thanks for that interesting simulation data, a_s, but why did you rank the three CCIW teams that way?

I didn't, those are the results from the entire season's data.  They are all pretty close to each other.  Overall, my system has them ranked #5, #13 and #23 (Wheaton, IWU and NCC)....it also still has Augie #9 which we know isnt true at this point so take it for what you will.

augie_superfan----

I think the flaw in your system is the fact that the NCC Cardinals are currently playing nothing like they did in the early (non-conference) portion of the schedule. Accordingly, the inclusion of data from the entire season may not represent an accurate current picture.
Also, after last weekend, its difficult to understand how you could rank Wheaton and Wesleyan ahead of NCC. As evidence of such, I need only to point out that the system data you're using still ranks Augie above BOTH Wesleyan and NCC, and only slightly behind Wheaton. Lastly, as you, yourself state, regarding Augie being ranked above IWU and NCC, "which we know isn't true at this point."

The defense rests. Cross examination?

I'd hesitate to call it a flaw at the moment.  My calculations from last year showed that actually weighting recent games more heavily decreased the system's ability to predict games correctly.  Somewhat counterintuitive but this fact is backed up in many published papers written by people much smarter than myself.  Maybe that will change with this year's data and if so, I will make the adjustments for future years.  Also, the system is trying to do 2 things:  1) Predict outcomes of future games.  2) Provide a ranking of team's that takes into account the entire year.

The point I said about Augie was just so I wasn't nit-picked by Greg.  If you look at all 4 teams entire season, all 4 ended roughly equal to each other.  Yes, NCC started the worst and finished the best whereas Augie did the opposite but in my system, it just doesn't care. 

If you'd like to post what you think the change in score for those several games you think NCC was affected by injuries, I'd be glad to run the data real quick and let you know how the numbers change.  Just let me know that they would've played Scranton 10 points better or whatever you think.

[TitansIWU]

If I was an oddsmaker, I'd set it at about 100-1.

My program would set those odds closer to 500-1 but a darn good guess for just off the top of the head.  If you are interested I simulated the tournament 1 million times today and have the percentage of times each team made it to each round.  I'll be uploading those to my site tonight.  Individually, my program gives the following percent chance of each occuring for our CCIW teams:

Chance of reaching:        Sweet 16     Elite 8     Final Four      Championship        Nat. Champ

Wheaton                           30.2%       13.9%      7.2%                4.5%                   2.7%
NCC                                  31.5%       19.3%      8.3%                4.4%                   1.7%
IWU                                  17.2%       10.1%      6.4%                3.8%                   1.7%

The teams are ranked from best to worst in my system: 1) Wheaton  2) IWU  3) NCC

So, as you can see, NCC has the easiest road of the three teams in terms of getting to the second weekend.

Thanks for that interesting simulation data, a_s, but why did you rank the three CCIW teams that way?

Thanks for that interesting simulation data, a_s, but why did you rank the three CCIW teams that way?

I didn't, those are the results from the entire season's data.  They are all pretty close to each other.  Overall, my system has them ranked #5, #13 and #23 (Wheaton, IWU and NCC)....it also still has Augie #9 which we know isnt true at this point so take it for what you will.

augie_superfan----

I think the flaw in your system is the fact that the NCC Cardinals are currently playing nothing like they did in the early (non-conference) portion of the schedule. Accordingly, the inclusion of data from the entire season may not represent an accurate current picture.
Also, after last weekend, its difficult to understand how you could rank Wheaton and Wesleyan ahead of NCC. As evidence of such, I need only to point out that the system data you're using still ranks Augie above BOTH Wesleyan and NCC, and only slightly behind Wheaton. Lastly, as you, yourself state, regarding Augie being ranked above IWU and NCC, "which we know isn't true at this point."

The defense rests. Cross examination?

I'd hesitate to call it a flaw at the moment.  My calculations from last year showed that actually weighting recent games more heavily decreased the system's ability to predict games correctly.  Somewhat counterintuitive but this fact is backed up in many published papers written by people much smarter than myself.  Maybe that will change with this year's data and if so, I will make the adjustments for future years.  Also, the system is trying to do 2 things:  1) Predict outcomes of future games.  2) Provide a ranking of team's that takes into account the entire year.

The point I said about Augie was just so I wasn't nit-picked by Greg.  If you look at all 4 teams entire season, all 4 ended roughly equal to each other.  Yes, NCC started the worst and finished the best whereas Augie did the opposite but in my system, it just doesn't care. 

If you'd like to post what you think the change in score for those several games you think NCC was affected by injuries, I'd be glad to run the data real quick and let you know how the numbers change.  Just let me know that they would've played Scranton 10 points better or whatever you think.

I am fascinated when you post what your computer has decided, I say that not in a facetious manner.

I was wondering though, could you build in some sort of momentum based logic that would take into account something such as injured players returning, a team just playing more cohesively, or any other reason where a team's record might not show it, but that you can see by watching that they have improved?

Or is what I am suggesting the very thing that the smarter people have written papers about?

[Gregory Sager]

Hey GS your baseball team is good also.

Yes, I'm quite aware of that. I operate the scoreboard at Holmgren Athletic Complex for NPU baseball games.

[NCF]

Hey GS your baseball team is good also.

Yes, I'm quite aware of that. I operate the scoreboard at Holmgren Athletic Complex for NPU baseball games.

I wasn't-until now. 1a learn something new every day.

[Gregory Sager]

Personally, I don't have a problem with soccer. (NPU is good at the sport, which helps.) I posted that last post because Dennis has insisted repeatedly in this room that soccer is a Communist plot.

I would be inclined to agree with him-probably not a good thing (agreeing with Dennis-not the soccer thing) is it?

Agreeing with Dennis is pretty much a value-neutral kinda thing, because, even if you agree with him about something, chances are pretty good that you'll be disagreeing with him about something else thirty minutes later. He's a bit like Chinese food in that way.

[NCF]

Personally, I don't have a problem with soccer. (NPU is good at the sport, which helps.) I posted that last post because Dennis has insisted repeatedly in this room that soccer is a Communist plot.

I would be inclined to agree with him-probably not a good thing (agreeing with Dennis-not the soccer thing) is it?

Agreeing with Dennis is pretty much a value-neutral kinda thing, because, even if you agree with him about something, chances are pretty good that you'll be disagreeing with him about something else thirty minutes later. He's a bit like Chinese food in that way.

That works for me-more time I can spend here instead of wasting time:) Hahahahahahahaha can't believe it took me two years to jump in with both feet (even if one of them occasionally end up in my mouth) LOL

[Dennis_Prikkel]

It spreads like a virus.

And if you insist on reincarnation Professor Pedantic, I will have to call on Dr. Grumblepants to counter your arguments.

I am not insisting on anything, however, I did find some humor in the above posts. I would like to hear Dr. Grumblepants at some point, he sounds interesting. 

To meet Dr. Grumblepants, the Legal Axolotl^TM, Kiki the Vegas call girl, Superfoot Wallace, and a host of other very interesting inhabitants, just click here, and you, too, can fall down Alice's Just Bill's rabbit hole.

I will have to do this later as track practice will be starting shortly!!

The only thing worse than track - is field.

I was sure that Dennis's sentence was going to end with the word "soccer".

should have put it in quotes - one of the two great sayings from the legendary Jones Ramsey, longtime SID at the University of Texas, who was billed as the world's tallest fat man - his other famous quote

we have two sports at Texas: football and spring football.