MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[TitansIWU]

Personally, I don't have a problem with soccer. (NPU is good at the sport, which helps.) I posted that last post because Dennis has insisted repeatedly in this room that soccer is a Communist plot.

I would be inclined to agree with him-probably not a good thing (agreeing with Dennis-not the soccer thing) is it?

Agreeing with Dennis is pretty much a value-neutral kinda thing, because, even if you agree with him about something, chances are pretty good that you'll be disagreeing with him about something else thirty minutes later. He's a bit like Chinese food in that way.

Your thought about Chinese food reminds me of a time 15 years ago when an associate and I sat down with a prospective client that we only knew was in the construction trade. Upon hearing that their niche was constructing specialized chinese restaurant buildings, my associate said, without skipping a beat... "after you finish one, do you get the urge to build another one in about half an hour?"

One of the funnier moments in my career.

[NCF]

Personally, I don't have a problem with soccer. (NPU is good at the sport, which helps.) I posted that last post because Dennis has insisted repeatedly in this room that soccer is a Communist plot.

I would be inclined to agree with him-probably not a good thing (agreeing with Dennis-not the soccer thing) is it?

Agreeing with Dennis is pretty much a value-neutral kinda thing, because, even if you agree with him about something, chances are pretty good that you'll be disagreeing with him about something else thirty minutes later. He's a bit like Chinese food in that way.

Your thought about Chinese food reminds me of a time 15 years ago when an associate and I sat down with a prospective client that we only knew was in the construction trade. Upon hearing that their niche was constructing specialized chinese restaurant buildings, my associate said, without skipping a beat... "after you finish one, do you get the urge to build another one in about half an hour?"

One of the funnier moments in my career.

So...did he become a client?

[TitansIWU]

No, because their financing fell through before we could get to that point.

Oh well, it was funny anyway.

[NCF]

No, because their financing fell through before we could get to that point.

Oh well, it was funny anyway.

Too bad-but very funny. Good luck to your titans this week-end, esp. your seniors.

[augie_superfan]

If I was an oddsmaker, I'd set it at about 100-1.

My program would set those odds closer to 500-1 but a darn good guess for just off the top of the head.  If you are interested I simulated the tournament 1 million times today and have the percentage of times each team made it to each round.  I'll be uploading those to my site tonight.  Individually, my program gives the following percent chance of each occuring for our CCIW teams:

Chance of reaching:        Sweet 16     Elite 8     Final Four      Championship        Nat. Champ

Wheaton                           30.2%       13.9%      7.2%                4.5%                   2.7%
NCC                                  31.5%       19.3%      8.3%                4.4%                   1.7%
IWU                                  17.2%       10.1%      6.4%                3.8%                   1.7%

The teams are ranked from best to worst in my system: 1) Wheaton  2) IWU  3) NCC

So, as you can see, NCC has the easiest road of the three teams in terms of getting to the second weekend.

Thanks for that interesting simulation data, a_s, but why did you rank the three CCIW teams that way?

Thanks for that interesting simulation data, a_s, but why did you rank the three CCIW teams that way?

I didn't, those are the results from the entire season's data.  They are all pretty close to each other.  Overall, my system has them ranked #5, #13 and #23 (Wheaton, IWU and NCC)....it also still has Augie #9 which we know isnt true at this point so take it for what you will.

augie_superfan----

I think the flaw in your system is the fact that the NCC Cardinals are currently playing nothing like they did in the early (non-conference) portion of the schedule. Accordingly, the inclusion of data from the entire season may not represent an accurate current picture.
Also, after last weekend, its difficult to understand how you could rank Wheaton and Wesleyan ahead of NCC. As evidence of such, I need only to point out that the system data you're using still ranks Augie above BOTH Wesleyan and NCC, and only slightly behind Wheaton. Lastly, as you, yourself state, regarding Augie being ranked above IWU and NCC, "which we know isn't true at this point."

The defense rests. Cross examination?

I'd hesitate to call it a flaw at the moment.  My calculations from last year showed that actually weighting recent games more heavily decreased the system's ability to predict games correctly.  Somewhat counterintuitive but this fact is backed up in many published papers written by people much smarter than myself.  Maybe that will change with this year's data and if so, I will make the adjustments for future years.  Also, the system is trying to do 2 things:  1) Predict outcomes of future games.  2) Provide a ranking of team's that takes into account the entire year.

The point I said about Augie was just so I wasn't nit-picked by Greg.  If you look at all 4 teams entire season, all 4 ended roughly equal to each other.  Yes, NCC started the worst and finished the best whereas Augie did the opposite but in my system, it just doesn't care. 

If you'd like to post what you think the change in score for those several games you think NCC was affected by injuries, I'd be glad to run the data real quick and let you know how the numbers change.  Just let me know that they would've played Scranton 10 points better or whatever you think.

I am fascinated when you post what your computer has decided, I say that not in a facetious manner.

I was wondering though, could you build in some sort of momentum based logic that would take into account something such as injured players returning, a team just playing more cohesively, or any other reason where a team's record might not show it, but that you can see by watching that they have improved?

Or is what I am suggesting the very thing that the smarter people have written papers about?

Sure, someone could figure out how to apply factors for that.  I will appoint you to watch all 409 teams and report back to me so I can compile the data.   

[TitansIWU]

ok... cool

409. North Central is playing better than they did at the start of the season.

408.  Man this is going to take me all week.

Yeah I see your point.

[augie_superfan]

ok... cool

409. North Central is playing better than they did at the start of the season.

408.  Man this is going to take me all week.

Yeah I see your point.

Yeah, in all seriousness it's a trade off between complexity (i.e. work) and accuracy.  Although there is no limit on work, there is some upper limit on accuracy.  I've actually been trying out two other systems this year and plan to tweak on them a bit in the offseason.  So hopefully next year I'll have something even better, but we will see.

[Gregory Sager]

Cardinal Stritch, whom Carthage beat by three on the home floor of the Wolves back in mid-December, is one of the 32 teams in the field of the NAIA Division II national tournament in Missouri.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Well, despite my call to IWU athletics never reaching the ticket office, and never receiving a promised call back, I finally scored a ticket through Hope (after a plaintive note on the MIAA board).  I WILL be in Holland this weekend - anyone else going to be there?

[Gregory Sager]

Well, despite my call to IWU athletics never reaching the ticket office, and never receiving a promised call back

You oughta root for UWSP tomorrow night out of spite, Chuck.

[NCF]

Well, despite my call to IWU athletics never reaching the ticket office, and never receiving a promised call back, I finally scored a ticket through Hope (after a plaintive note on the MIAA board).  I WILL be in Holland this weekend - anyone else going to be there?

I'll b in the stands on Friday at  NCC but working on Sat. Have fun:)

[TitansIWU]

Well, despite my call to IWU athletics never reaching the ticket office, and never receiving a promised call back

You oughta root for UWSP tomorrow night out of spite, Chuck.

Spread a cheer throughout the stands just bashing the IWU ticket office.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Well, despite my call to IWU athletics never reaching the ticket office, and never receiving a promised call back

You oughta root for UWSP tomorrow night out of spite, Chuck.

Spread a cheer throughout the stands just bashing the IWU ticket office.

Nah, no hard feelings (sounded like I was talking to student workers, and they just made mistakes).  And it gave me a chance to truly appreciate the Hope posters - after my plea, I received FOUR PMs within a half hour!  (Two offered very helpful procedural advice; two others offered directly to get me tickets!)

[monsoon]

Well, despite my call to IWU athletics never reaching the ticket office, and never receiving a promised call back, I finally scored a ticket through Hope (after a plaintive note on the MIAA board).  I WILL be in Holland this weekend - anyone else going to be there?

I'll b in the stands on Friday at  NCC but working on Sat. Have fun:)

Won't you be lonely? 

[NCF]

Well, despite my call to IWU athletics never reaching the ticket office, and never receiving a promised call back, I finally scored a ticket through Hope (after a plaintive note on the MIAA board).  I WILL be in Holland this weekend - anyone else going to be there?

I'll b in the stands on Friday at  NCC but working on Sat. Have fun:)

Won't you be lonely? 

And freezing if I was outside!!LOL The stands I will besitting in are inside Res/Rec at the beautiful Al B. Carius track. But if you're not doing anything you can always come join me in  watching the Cards rev up for next week-ends nationals. And you can bring Dennis P.(I hear he loves track(hahahahaha) but only more than field.