MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[augiefan]

If the season ended today Augie would be the 4th seed in the CCIW tourney by reason of beating Carthage in Kenosha. However, the season does not end today, so it looks like a dead heat in the final seven games between Augie and Carthage for the last spot. IWU, NCC and Wheaton are clearly the top three at this half way point but lots of time left to change that dynamic in the second half of the conference season, particularly with the ever present threat of injuries to key players.

[CCIWchamps]

Is everyone in the CCIW through with the 1st round of games (everyone has played everyone)?

[Gregory Sager]

Yep. The first round-robin is in the books. The second round-robin starts on Saturday afternoon.

[Titan Q]

I don't believe any of the 3 teams below 4-3 have a legitimate shot at the conference tournament.  Here is how Massey sees the difficulty of second half games for the 5 teams at 4-3 or better, listed in order of difficulty from highest to lowest (games are not listed in chronological order)...

Illinois Wesleyan (7-0)
1. @ North Central (32%)
2. @ Augustana (40%)
3. vs Wheaton (59%)
4. @ Carthage (66%)
5. @ Elmhurst (92%)
6. vs Millikin (97%)
7. vs North Park (98%)
(Massey projects 12-2)

North Central (5-2)
1. @ Wheaton (33%)
2. @ Augustana (44%)
3. vs Illinois Wesleyan (69%)
4. vs Carthage (89%)
5. @ Millikin (91%)
6. vs North Park (98%)
7. vs Elmhurst (99%)
(Massey projects 10-4)

Augustana (4-3)
1. @ Wheaton (29%)
2. vs North Central (56%)
3. vs Illinois Wesleyan (60%)
4. vs Carthage (84%)
5. @ Elmhurst (91%)
6. @ North Park (91%)
7. vs Millikin (96%)
(Massey projects 10-4)

Wheaton (4-3)
1. @ Illinois Wesleyan (41%)
2. vs North Central (67%)
3. vs Augustana (71%)
4. vs Carthage (89%)
5. @ Millikin (92%)
6. @ North Park (94%)
7. @ Elmhurst (94%)
(Massey projects 10-4)

Carthage (4-3)
1. @ North Central (11%)
2. @ Wheaton (11%)
3. @ Augustana (16%)
4. vs Illinois Wesleyan (34%)
5. @ North Park (75%)
6. vs Millikin (89%)
7. vs Elmhurst (91%)
(Massey projects 7-7)

[Titan Q]

Thoughts on remaining schedules...

* IWU's 2-game lead at the turn looks somewhat comfortable, but it's really not due to the fact that the Titans have the toughest remaining scheduled between IWU, NCC, Augie, and Wheaton.  Assuming NCC will beat IWU on the final night of the year in Naperville, the lead is really only 1 game...which is why last night was an absolute must for the Titans.  I'm certainly not conceding that game as an IWU fan, but Massey's 32% sounds about right to me.

* The game Saturday in Wheaton between the Thunder and NCC Cardinals is enormous.  IWU fans clearly turn into Wheaton fans in a big way.  While a 2-game lead with 7 to play might not be as big as it seems, a 3-game lead with 6 to play sure would be (if IWU takes care of business @ Elmhurst earlier in the day). 

* Carthage has the most difficult schedule left by far - the Red Men are a real longshot to make the conference tournament at this point.

[AndOne]

Agree with Q, a very big game at The Shirk tonight.  Hope the IWU faithful turnout bigtime, even in the cold, and produce the first 2,000+ crowd of the season tonight. (already Wednesday here in HK).  Agree that TO and rebounding battle will be crucial in a game where every possession will be needed.  Let's hope the Titans play like they have been playing of late, from the perimeter, the paint and all the role players too.  If so, I think this game will turn out well for the home team.  I'd say IWU 69, NCC 61. Also seems absences due to illness or injury more likely to be a factor for NCC than for the Titans.

Go TITANS!!!  Let's finished the first go'round in CCIW play 7-0!

IWU70

Wow.

IWU70----

Forget about basketball this weekend. You need to be on a plane to Vegas!   

[Titan Q]

"Local basketball talent elevates CCIW to one of nation's best conferences"

http://www.mysuburbanlife.com/2013/01/24/local-basketball-talent-elevates-cciw-to-one-of-nations-best-conferences/a8n05al/?page=1

[AndOne]

I didn't watch that game tonight. I can only go by what I saw on Saturday evening. But Gamble could barely put weight on his sprained ankle when he left the building, and he was leaning with his arm around the shoulder of an older gentleman whom I assume was his dad; Tiknis was visibly limping around in street clothes; and Raridon was clutching his iced-up bad shoulder and wincing as he left the gym.

Perhaps they healed up remarkably well between Saturday night and tonight. It could happen. I'm in no position to say. And perhaps the adrenaline kicked in at game time tonight and they were each able to completely ignore the pain and make their respective dysfunctional joints function properly. But I know what I saw. And what I saw was that all three Cardinals stars were in a bad way when they left NPU on Saturday night, and that's a fact.

I don't doubt the injuries or how bad things were Saturday at all.  But four days later...

Minutes played at IWU
Raridon - 37 (season avg - 33.8)
Tiknis - 33 (season avg - 29.8)
Gamble - 32 (season avg - 23.6)


I already commented on the trio's production last night - they scored more points as a group than their average, and came within 3 rebounds.  All on the road, against the best defensive opponent NCC will face in the CCIW (in terms of both defensive efficiency and FG% against), and a team that has per game rebound margin of +12.0.

Based on the way these three performed last night it doesn't seem like the injuries were a factor in the outcome of the game.  Raridon, Gamble, and Tiknis played heavy minutes, and played very well.

Normally a poster representing the losing team who claims injury or injuries played a major factor in his team's loss, is met with scorn, ridicule, and accusations of "excuses, excuses." This is usually true even if the poster has a legitimate point.
However, if you don't want to believe my assertion that injuries to 3 top NCC players did indeed play a major role last night, perhaps you'll believe Greg Sager's description of the concerned players at the conclusion of last Saturday's NCC-NPU game.

With injuries of this magnitude, just how quickly do you think these players are going to regain 100% functionality?

Titan Q attempts to advance the argument that because Aaron Tiknis, Derek Raridon, and Landon Gamble played more minutes than their previous averages, and performed well, that "it doesn't seem "like the injuries were a factor in the outcome of the game." This is naive at best.
Realizing the importance of the game, guts and adrenaline propelled their efforts beyond normal expectations in terms of time played. These are 21 and 22 year old kids who certainly aren't about to ask the coach to "take me out" no matter how much they were hurting, or how exhausted they were. The "I'm not a wimp" syndrome personified. This is especially true of Tiknis and Raridon who are in their final season. That this trio was able to achieve what did they did under the limitations under which they played last night only illustrates the level of their talents.   

Several fans/posters, among them, veterancciwfan and the "estimable" ( ) d-3 watcher, have noted things like "Gamble couldn't jump," and "Tiknis had a noticeable limp."

I don't think I'm exaggerating when I say I know the Cardinals pretty well. After observing Gamble and Tiknis for 3 years now, and Raridon for 4 years, I think pretty accurate estimates are that last evening Landon Gamble and Derek Raridon were at about 70-75%, and Aaron Tiknis was 60-65%. Tiknis shot 2 air balls last night. It wasn't that he is a bad player or poor shooter, but rather that by the time he shot them his legs were pretty much gone, and he just didn't have the push/lift to step into his shot.

Now---

The above being said, credit must also be given to Wesleyan. As with any good team, they certainly took advantage of the opportunities the Cardinals presented them. They shot the 3 very well taking advantage of the Cards soft perimeter defense and being out of position several times. They took advantage of weakened ankles, knees, and shoulders, to pound the boards and out rebound the visitors. They forced the play, and attacked the basket off the dribble, and also got the ball inside for rather easy baskets on several occasions. Well done.

[AndOne]

Anyone know the reason(s) for the recent absences of Tyler Pierce of Carthage and Mark Holmes of North Park?

[Gregory Sager]

Holmes has a knee injury. Pierce has an ankle injury.

[Gregory Sager]

Several fans/posters, among them, veterancciwfan and the "estimable" ( ) d-3 watcher, have noted things like "Gamble couldn't jump," and "Tiknis had a noticeable limp."

And don't forget that iwumichigander was the first poster to raise the issue of the injuries to NCC's Big Three possibly playing a part in the outcome of the game in the post-game discussion here:

To be honest, the outcome might have been different were Gamble, Tiknis and Raridon 100 percent. 

On the season Raridon, Gamble, and Tiknis average 39 points and 17 rebounds...in 88 minutes per game.

Tonight they had 44 points and 14 rebounds...in 102 minutes.

What else were they going to do?

Score 9 more points? 

I know where Bob's coming from on this. I think that a lot of us sports fans who are passionate about a team have been in his shoes at some point. I know that I've been there myself when North Park's won a game of this type. Your team wins a big game. The opponent was missing key players or had key players hurt and performing at less than 100%. The issue of those players is raised in conversation. You instantly get defensive, because the implication is that the luster is somehow lost from your team's glorious victory if you give in and admit that the opposing team wasn't at its best when your team beat it. It's a natural, human response.

But there are other Wesleyan fans who are weighing in here on the side of there either possibly or probably being enough wrong with NCC's Big Three to affect the outcome of the game. Kudos to them for their honesty.

In the long run, it's an irrelevant discussion. The game's in the books. Illinois Wesleyan won and North Central lost, and it ultimately doesn't matter one bit whether those injuries affected the game greatly, slightly, or not at all. All that matters is wins and losses.

[iwu70]

Greg, very well put on wins and losses.  The W-L record . . . well, it is what it is -- for all teams.  I, for one, do feel that several of the NCC big three had injuries, were not at full capacity.  It was evident in Gamble especially toward the end of the game as he dogged it down the court, not fully able to run and jump.  Was surprised to see he had no RBs, as he surely scored well most of the night.  It will actually be hard for these guys to get fully healthy given the grind of the remaining CCIW season, unless NCC sits them for a few games, let's the rest and recoup.  The Titans, after the early season injuries, have been blessed with relative good health and a good long bench of very good players.  Knock on wood.

Guys, thanks for all the kudos and advice about my spot on prediction of the IWU-NCC score last Wednesday.  I'm heading for the horses here in HK this weekend . . . it's called "Happy Valley" race course here, for a reason!  Wish me continued good luck.  If I hit it big at the track, I'll make a bigger donation to IWU. 

Looking forward to more fine games this weekend, and, yes, I'll be cheering for WC to put another loss on NCC.  Naturally.

Have a good weekend all . . . hope the cold isn't too too brutal for you'all in the upper Midwest.  I'm surely enjoying the sunny warm days here on the South China coast, about 75 degrees today.  I'm smiling for several reasons.

IWU70

[D-3 watcher]

CCIW Champs says IWU NEVER benefits from injured players on other teams. Was he being sarcastic? Was he being funny?
Champs, all teams have injuries during the year, don't you think every team that played IWU early in the season benefitted. Of IWU top 5 guards, 4 couldn't play due to injuries. They started the season starting with a 2 guard that never played guard before. The first 2 guards off the bench were freshman.
Injuries happen, would IWU be undefeated if they were injury free all year, would they be ranked #1, maybe, maybe not. Would Wheaton, having its full roster, beat IWU, NCC if injury free wins Saturday? Maybe, maybe not.
And to be clear, injury free or not, IWU played poorly, in the games they lost, so I don't think they would be undefeated. And I'm not taking anything away from the teams that beat IWU, they were better.

[iwumichigander]

With injuries of this magnitude, just how quickly do you think these players are going to regain 100% functionality?

AO - This would be my key question regarding NCC as we start the second CCIW round robin.  Somehow the bench is going to need to step up to keep the Cards in this race to the conference tournament.  I still think even with the injuries the Cards can finish in the top four. By tournament time, your guys are going to need to be reasonably healthy which might be tough given the injuries.

[Gregory Sager]

With injuries of this magnitude, just how quickly do you think these players are going to regain 100% functionality?

AO - This would be my key question regarding NCC as we start the second CCIW round robin.  Somehow the bench is going to need to step up to keep the Cards in this race to the conference tournament.  I still think even with the injuries the Cards can finish in the top four. By tournament time, your guys are going to need to be reasonably healthy which might be tough given the injuries.

Health is one issue. Proper rest is another; Vince Kmiec, for example, is averaging 36 and a half minutes of playing time in CCIW action, almost a full minute more than the second-most-used player in the league ... and that second-most-used player is Derek Raridon. And we've touched upon a third issue here over the past couple of days, which is that NCC is not getting what it needs to get from the point guard position if it wants to get deep into the post-season.