MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Rafi]

Hello havej,

Derek Raridon on the court correlates to NCC improving its scoring by 6.3ppg, but the opposition also increases scoring at a rate of 4.1ppg - a net of 2.2ppg compared to when Raridon is on the bench.

Dylan Overstreet's presence correlates to IWU improving its scoring by 2.9ppg but they also give up 3.7ppg more than when Overstreet is off the floor.

This is an interesting viewpoint, but the numbers are a little surprising......Anecdotally, I would think that these two (and Peters from WC) would have the biggest impact to scoring success for their teams.  It makes me wonder how minutes played impacts the results.  For an extreme example, a player that plays 40 mins/game wouldn't have a comparison between being in the game and out.

Do players that play heavy minutes get impacted by the small sample size when on the bench?  When looking at the players listed that led each team in increased production, only Peters and Holmes were in the top of the conference in minutes played.

[kiko]

A pretty big deal for the CCIW....

http://www.d3sports.com/notables/2013/02/regional-realignment-coming

Losing the option to schedule HCAC teams as in-region hurts, I don't think many are within the 200 mile rule.

Being in the same region with the WIAC is going to make things very hard on the NathCon/SLIAC/MidWest.  Not many open spots to rank teams when the CCIW and WIAC usually have 3 rank-able teams at one time.

But with the 70% rule coming next year, isn't any type of regional alignment almost a non-factor in terms of in-region games?

It's not as much of a factor as in-region games, but clearly will impact regional rankings and therefore consideration for the tournament.  Had the WIAC been part of the Midwest this year, Augie may not have been ranked in the last couple of region rankings.  (Stout was blocked by Buena Vista but may have been above Augie):

Augustana (CCIW) - 18-8 (.692)/.553/2-8
UW-Stout (WIAC) - 19-7 (.731)/.542/1-5

The HCAC is not necessarily a weak conference, but the WIAC is clearly a notch above.  The consensus is that Augie was likely at the table when the final Pool C slot(s) were filled; they may not have gotten there had the WIAC been in the mix.  And I would expect that the third WIAC team may be stronger than that in some years.

IMO it just got a little bit harder to get that extra CCIW team into the tourney.

[kiko]

Hello havej,

Derek Raridon on the court correlates to NCC improving its scoring by 6.3ppg, but the opposition also increases scoring at a rate of 4.1ppg - a net of 2.2ppg compared to when Raridon is on the bench.

Dylan Overstreet's presence correlates to IWU improving its scoring by 2.9ppg but they also give up 3.7ppg more than when Overstreet is off the floor.

This is an interesting viewpoint, but the numbers are a little surprising......Anecdotally, I would think that these two (and Peters from WC) would have the biggest impact to scoring success for their teams.  It makes me wonder how minutes played impacts the results.  For an extreme example, a player that plays 40 mins/game wouldn't have a comparison between being in the game and out.

Do players that play heavy minutes get impacted by the small sample size when on the bench?  When looking at the players listed that led each team in increased production, only Peters and Holmes were in the top of the conference in minutes played.

For players who play yeomans' minutes, the sample for time off the court will be much smaller than for time on the court.  Not necessarily statistically insignificant, but much smaller.

Additionally, some of the time off the court will be either garbage time or final minutes, where the normal ebbs and floes of a game or a team's style may be disrupted.

The data is interesting, and I love the rigor and work put into what DJM produced, but in a vacuum is not necessarily conclusive.

[DMJSports]

Rafi, you are correct, a player who is always in the game would not allow a contrast to the team without the player.  The analysis is very different for each player you mentioned:

1) with Raridon on the floor, NCC outscores opposition at a rate of 0.2875 points per minute.  Without Raridon, NCC outscores opponents at a rate of 0.2325 points per game.

2) with Overstreet on the floor, IWU outscores opposition at a rate of 0.2775 points per minute.  In the 213 minutes IWU played without Overstreet, IWU outscored opposition at a rate of 0.3 points per minute. (CAVEAT, only 25 of the 26 games were analyzed because one of the games had missing data)

3) with Peters on the floor, WC outscores opposition at a rate of 0.3325 points per minute. In the 166 minutes without Peters, WC was OUTSCORED at a rate of 0.0725 points per minute.

These numbers give you an understanding of why these players score so differently on the analysis.

Kiko, you are absolutely right on all your points.  Data is not conclusive, but it highlights trends that are worth investigating.

[TitansIWU]

That's some really interesting data.

I am not a big math guy, so this question may seem ridiculous, but in order for the data to be useful at all, wouldn't it have to take into account...

Who was on the floor in place of the player being evaluated, and who the other 4 players were?

There are so many combination of possibilities that I don't know how you could even begin to figure it out.

If a team only had a bench of one additional player, then it would be easy, but they don't.

I came on here to explain my question better, but I just end up making it more confusing for myself!!!

[havej]

From watching these three players, the numbers make a lot of sense to me.  Peters is significantly more indispensable to Wheaton than the other two are to their teams, not only in his scoring but in his making others better.

If I'm a head coach and was about to play one of these three teams, I choose Peters to get a 24 hour flu bug - all joking aside.

[Titan Q]

From watching these three players, the numbers make a lot of sense to me.  Peters is significantly more indispensable to Wheaton than the other two are to their teams, not only in his scoring but in his making others better.

It's not as obvious from stats as it is with Peters, but Dylan Oversteet's play at PG is really critical for IWU.  Ron Rose brings freshman Bryce Dolan in for a few minutes at at time to spell Overstreet, but generally Dylan is on the floor almost all of the time.

It's no coincidence that IWU's play this year improved dramatically when Overstreet's play did.  He learned to handle the ball so much better as he got into his first season on the varsity, and just started seeing the court so much better, and picking his spots to take it to the basket.

I'm pretty sure IWU would be an 8-6 type team without Dylan Overstreet.

[blue_jays]

From watching these three players, the numbers make a lot of sense to me.  Peters is significantly more indispensable to Wheaton than the other two are to their teams, not only in his scoring but in his making others better.

If I'm a head coach and was about to play one of these three teams, I choose Peters to get a 24 hour flu bug - all joking aside.

Without Peters, Wheaton would be a .500 team this year with all their new pieces. It's been a great run of Thunder point guards who are also outstanding defenders - Panner, Jahns, Peters. I recall that 2009-10 game when Panner shut down Sean Johnson and held him without a point.

[USee]

In looking at St. Norbert (Wheaton's opponent Saturday) they come in with a 20-6 record. Their notable wins are Vs Whitewater (66-55 on 12/30). They then lost badly @UWW on Feb 2 63-38. Their other losses are by 14 to Augie, by 11 to Grinnell, by 17 to Beloit, by 5 to Grinnell and by 20 to UWGB (d1 school).

It seems Wheaton should have an advantage in SOS and would be favored at home by a comfortable margin. You never know in the playoffs though. Wheaton really needs Kvam and Berg to shoot the ball well if they hope to win Saturday and compete with UST a week later. Peter Smith also needs to find some offense in his game. He started the season strong and hasn't been much of an impact during the conference slate. All those youngsters have now been through a CCIW schedule. They aren't youngsters anymore and need to play like veterans!

St Norberts will feature:

Brandon "Roy" Gries                          6-1 G, JR 14.4ppg, 4 reb, 81% FT, 37% 3pt
Andrew "Bynum" Schwoerer                6-4 F So, 13.4ppg, 5.8 reb
Izaiah "Thomas","Birdman" Anderson   6-5 F, Fr, 7.2ppg, 6.3 reb
Garrett "Rod" Thorn                           6-6 C, JR, 5.4ppg, 3.0 reb
Andy "Rick" Fox                                 6-1, G, Jr, 4.1ppg, 2.1 reb, 39% 3pt

and off the bench:

Paul "Pierce" Appleton 6-5                  6-5, G/F, Sr 9.2ppg, 3.8 reb
as well as Austin "Billy" Elliot, Steve "Kerr" Hofacker, and Jeremy "Lin" Paprocki

Looks like they go about 9 deep for significant minutes.

[WUPHF]

St Norberts will feature:

Brandon "Roy" Gries                          6-1 G, JR 14.4ppg, 4 reb, 81% FT, 37% 3pt
Andrew "Bynum" Schwoerer                6-4 F So, 13.4ppg, 5.8 reb
Izaiah "Thomas","Birdman" Anderson   6-5 F, Fr, 7.2ppg, 6.3 reb
Garrett "Rod" Thorn                           6-6 C, JR, 5.4ppg, 3.0 reb
Andy "Rick" Fox                                 6-1, G, Jr, 4.1ppg, 2.1 reb, 39% 3pt

and off the bench:

Paul "Pierce" Appleton 6-5                  6-5, G/F, Sr 9.2ppg, 3.8 reb
as well as Austin "Billy" Elliot, Steve "Kerr" Hofacker, and Jeremy "Lin" Paprocki

You are killing me with these nicknames.  Please, keep going!

[iwu70]

"Matt" Dylan Overstreet?  Victor "Victorious" Davis, Kevin "Spacey" Reed . . . . . OK, you've created a monster here!   

Looking forward to some great basketball this weekend.  Hope the Titans are able to heat it up @The Shirk on Saturday.

IWU70

[iwu70]

D3hoops.com tournament review -- "Most likely to Disappoint" in the bracket of death = Illinois Wesleyan.

Let's prove them wrong, TITANS!  A tough road, but we've been there before, ready to ride the wave to Salem and beyond. 

GO TITANS!!!

IWU70

[Titan Q]

A nice reminder that the CCIW players we watch do a lot more than just play basketball...

http://www.bbbscil.org/match-of-the-month/eric-and-dantrell

[Titan Q]

Article on IWU PG Dylan Overstreet...

http://www.pantagraph.com/sports/college/illinois-wesleyan/overstreet-s-breakout-season-has-led-titans-to-ncaa-tourney/article_52178c5c-821f-11e2-966b-001a4bcf887a.html

[NCF]

A nice reminder that the CCIW players we watch do a lot more than just play basketball...

http://www.bbbscil.org/match-of-the-month/eric-and-dantrell

That also goes for the CCIW players who play football and I would be willing to bet, several athletes volunteer in community projects. It it's great to see athletes give back to the community.