MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Titan Q]

It'll be interesting, but the committee will end up likely end up with Carthage (and their 9 losses and wins vs. IWU and Wash U) on the table against teams Mt. St. Mary's (good record; poor SOS), NYU (fewer losses, good SOS, no big wins) and such.

Are you factoring in conference tournament upsets though, bopol?  I always assume there will be about 4 major upsets...some years there are a few more.  If we get a typical year in terms of upsets, don't you think Carthage would be evaluated vs better Pool C candidates than you are listing above?

(Heading into conference tournament weekend, I always assume any team under #15 on my Pool C is out...seems like that is where Carthage is right now.)

[bopol]

It'll be interesting, but the committee will end up likely end up with Carthage (and their 9 losses and wins vs. IWU and Wash U) on the table against teams Mt. St. Mary's (good record; poor SOS), NYU (fewer losses, good SOS, no big wins) and such.

Are you factoring in conference tournament upsets though, bopol?  I always assume there will be about 4 major upsets...some years there are a few more.  If we get a typical year in terms of upsets, don't you think Carthage would be evaluated vs better Pool C candidates than you are listing above?

(Heading into conference tournament weekend, I always assume any team under #15 on my Pool C is out...seems like that is where Carthage is right now.)

I agree with you.  It does depend on how many upsets there are.  4 upsets seems reasonable, though I don't have the years of following this as you do.  If there are four and only 15 of the current Pool C candidates are in, then Carthage is on the thinnest of bubbles.

Have you tried ordering the Pool C's?  I'd be interested in your #11 through #20.

[Titan Q]

Have you tried ordering the Pool C's?  I'd be interested in your #11 through #20.

Only once, but this is outdated already...

Not the most scientific thing ever, but my take on Pool C at this point...

20 most "bubble proof" current conference leaders
1. UW-Stevens Point (WIAC) - West #1
2. Amherst or Williams (NESCAC) - Northeast #1 and #2
3. Wooster (NCAC) - Great Lakes #1
4. Brockport State (SUNYAC) - East #1
5. Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW) - Midwest #2
6. SUNY-Purchase (SKY) - Atlantic #1
7. Cabrini (CSAC) - Mid-Atlantic #1
8. Scranton (Land) - Mid-Atlantic #2
9. Randolph-Macon (ODAC) - South #1
10. Wesley (CAC) - Mid-Atlantic #3
11. St. Thomas (MIAC) - West #3
----------gets a little dicier here
12. Mount Union (OAC) - Great Lakes #4
13. Staten Island (CUNYAC) - Atlantic #3
14. Texas-Dallas (ASC) - South #2
15. Hope (MIAA) - Great Lakes #6 
16. St. Norbert (MWC) - Midwest #5
17. Eastern Connecticut (LEC) - Northeast #5
18. WPI (NEWMAC) - Northeast #6
19. Dickinson (CC) - Mid-Atlantic #6
20. Whitworth (NWC) - West #6

15 strongest current Pool C candidates (teams not leading their conference)
1. UW-Whitewater (WIAC) - West #2
2. Amherst or Williams (NESCAC) - Northeast #1 and #2
3. Babson (NEWMAC) - Northeast #4
4. Wheaton (CCIW) - Midwest #3
5. Geneseo State (SUNYAC) - East #2
6. Plattsburgh State (SUNYAC) - East #3
7. Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC) - Great Lakes #2
8. Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC) - South #3
9. Guilford (ODAC) - South #5
10. Emory (UAA) - South #6
11. Augustana (CCIW) - Midwest #4
12. Bowdoin (NESCAC) - Northeast #3
13. Springfield (NEWMAC) - Northeast #7
14. Dubuque (IIAC) - West #4
15. Mary Washington (CAC) - Mid-Atlantic #5


(Regional ranking noted is from Feb 9)

I didn't go lower than 15 for the reason I mentioned above - I usually just assume teams lower than 15 are out because at least 4 of the "bubble proof" teams will steal Pool C spots.

I will try to update this in the next couple of days.

[bopol]

Have you tried ordering the Pool C's?  I'd be interested in your #11 through #20.

Only once, but this is outdated already...

Not the most scientific thing ever, but my take on Pool C at this point...

20 most "bubble proof" current conference leaders
1. UW-Stevens Point (WIAC) - West #1
2. Amherst or Williams (NESCAC) - Northeast #1 and #2
3. Wooster (NCAC) - Great Lakes #1
4. Brockport State (SUNYAC) - East #1
5. Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW) - Midwest #2
6. SUNY-Purchase (SKY) - Atlantic #1
7. Cabrini (CSAC) - Mid-Atlantic #1
8. Scranton (Land) - Mid-Atlantic #2
9. Randolph-Macon (ODAC) - South #1
10. Wesley (CAC) - Mid-Atlantic #3
11. St. Thomas (MIAC) - West #3
----------gets a little dicier here
12. Mount Union (OAC) - Great Lakes #4
13. Staten Island (CUNYAC) - Atlantic #3
14. Texas-Dallas (ASC) - South #2
15. Hope (MIAA) - Great Lakes #6 
16. St. Norbert (MWC) - Midwest #5
17. Eastern Connecticut (LEC) - Northeast #5
18. WPI (NEWMAC) - Northeast #6
19. Dickinson (CC) - Mid-Atlantic #6
20. Whitworth (NWC) - West #6

15 strongest current Pool C candidates (teams not leading their conference)
1. UW-Whitewater (WIAC) - West #2
2. Amherst or Williams (NESCAC) - Northeast #1 and #2
3. Babson (NEWMAC) - Northeast #4
4. Wheaton (CCIW) - Midwest #3
5. Geneseo State (SUNYAC) - East #2
6. Plattsburgh State (SUNYAC) - East #3
7. Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC) - Great Lakes #2
8. Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC) - South #3
9. Guilford (ODAC) - South #5
10. Emory (UAA) - South #6
11. Augustana (CCIW) - Midwest #4
12. Bowdoin (NESCAC) - Northeast #3
13. Springfield (NEWMAC) - Northeast #7
14. Dubuque (IIAC) - West #4
15. Mary Washington (CAC) - Mid-Atlantic #5


(Regional ranking noted is from Feb 9)

I didn't go lower than 15 for the reason I mentioned above - I usually just assume teams lower than 15 are out because at least 4 of the "bubble proof" teams will steal Pool C spots.

I will try to update this in the next couple of days.

Good stuff.  If possible, can you go to twenty?  I'm interested in seeing how you approach both sides of the bubble.

I'm not feeling Guilford or Dubuque at this point, but I need to look at it carefully.

[Titan Q]

Good stuff.  If possible, can you go to twenty?  I'm interested in seeing how you approach both sides of the bubble.

I'm not feeling Guilford or Dubuque at this point, but I need to look at it carefully.

Definitely will go to 20.

[veterancciwfan]

There are many ways to try to judge the better team, IWU or Wash. U. : 1) Wash. U. has a total of 2 losses, both to CCIW teams on the road, a 25-point hammering by IWU and a 2-point loss at Carthage w/o Malcom Kelly (kind of hard to believe). Wash. U's only win against CCIW teams was a very close 4-point win over Wheaton in St. Louis. So Wash. U. is 1-2 vs. CCIW teams and IWU, if it wins the CCIW tournament (a big if considering what happened last year and what could happen again), will have a 14-2 CCIW record. That favors IWU. 2) Using a different approach to evaluate the relative strengths of the CCIW compared to the UAA, look at Chicago's record. The Maroons are 15-9 and 8-5 in the UAA with a home game left against Wash. U. on Mar. 1. So Chicago is one of the better teams in the UAA. However, their record against CCIW teams is 1-3 with their sole victory against NPU. In their 3 losses to Wheaton, IWU, and Augie, Chicago lost by an average of 20.6 points. That analysis, which I doubt the Midwest Committee will utilize, also favors IWU. I believe that if IWU wins the conf. tournamnet, the Titans will be the top seed in the final and unpublicized Midwest Region rankings.

[veterancciwfan]

Is Tyler Peters a great player? Yes. A close analysis of his stats in the biggest game of the year shows this: He shot 47% from the field (7/15), 25% on 3s (1/4 with his only made 3 meaningless in the final 30 seconds), 63% from the line (12/19 including missing the last of 2 FTs with 2:20 left that resulted in a 4-point deficit, 84-80), had 8 RBs (team high), and 6 assists (team high and game high) scoring 27 in 38 minutes. Great stats? Probably, but everything is relative. IWU as a team shot .547 from the field (29/53), .556 on 3s (5/9) and .791 from the line (34/43). I know I'm biased, but there is an argument that Overstreet (29 minutes), Nelson (26 minutes) and Davis (34 minutes) had better comparable stats. Would I want Tyler Peters on my team? Absolutely. If I had to choose Peters or Overstreet or Peters or Nelson, who would I choose? Silence Is Golden (#11 hit for The Tremeloes in 1967).

[iwu70]

Lots of good info and analysis here.  Thanks guys.  Should be a great national tournament.

Hope CCIW gets three teams in . . . big doubties on Carthage at this point.

IWU70

[toooldtohoop]

Is Tyler Peters a great player? Yes. A close analysis of his stats in the biggest game of the year shows this: He shot 47% from the field (7/15), 25% on 3s (1/4 with his only made 3 meaningless in the final 30 seconds), 63% from the line (12/19 including missing the last of 2 FTs with 2:20 left that resulted in a 4-point deficit, 84-80), had 8 RBs (team high), and 6 assists (team high and game high) scoring 27 in 38 minutes. Great stats? Probably, but everything is relative. IWU as a team shot .547 from the field (29/53), .556 on 3s (5/9) and .791 from the line (34/43). I know I'm biased, but there is an argument that Overstreet (29 minutes), Nelson (26 minutes) and Davis (34 minutes) had better comparable stats. Would I want Tyler Peters on my team? Absolutely. If I had to choose Peters or Overstreet or Peters or Nelson, who would I choose? Silence Is Golden (#11 hit for The Tremeloes in 1967).

Previously, I liked Overstreet in a pick over Hill.  If you give me the chance to pick Peters or Overstreet/Nelson, I take Tyler without a thought and lace them up.

But admittedly my lenses are orange colored...

[AndOne]

Illinois Wesleyan 97
Wheaton 88

* Dylan Overstreet: 21 pts, 3 reb
* Victor Davis: 19 pts, 10 reb
* Jordan Nelson: 18 pts, 5 assists
* Andrew Ziemnik: 16 pts, 4 reb

* Tyler Peters: 27 pts, 8 reb, 6 assists
* Brayden Teuscher: 19 pts, 2 reb, 2 assists
* Caleb DeMoss: 15 pts, 6 reb, 2 assists
* Nate Haynes: 11 pts, 4 reb


Considering what was on the line and how hostile the environment was at King Arena, I thought the Titans were just outstanding this evening.  IWU controlled the game and played with a ton of composure when Wheaton made their run late in the game.

I thought Victor Davis was IWU's player of the game.  He was great in the low post, on the defensive boards, and went 8-8 from the FT line.  Davis played with a lot of poise and really looked like a veteran who had been there before.

Jordan Nelson's 11 points in the first half - including 3 very long 3-pointers - were key in establishing IWU's 9-point halftime lead.  He is a great weapon off the bench for IWU.

Dylan Overstreet was a great floor general as always, but once again provided a big offensive spark.  Andrew Ziemnik was a tough matchup for the Thunder and also played very well.

Fun game to watch - King Arena was jumping.

* IWU was indeed outstanding last evening, taking Wheaton's best shot, bending not breaking, and capturing the championship.

* I agree that Victor Davis was the player of the game. He set the tone, and basically dared WC to beat him and his teammates. In speaking with several Wesleyan and Wheaton fans after the game, the single thing the majority was most impressed by were his hitting all 8 of his FTs, many at important junctures of the contest.

* Nelson's important trio of three pointers established a halftime lead which IWU was able to maintain during an evenly played 2nd half. However, (sorry IWU fans) Mr Nelson needs a strong kick in the ass, and lessons in sportsmanship, and class.

* Despite Davis being the POG, Overstreet certainly had an outstanding game.

* Ziemnik evidently played through some degree of pain/discomfort. He would play a few minutes and then, when relieved, would frequently ride a stationary bike before going back in.

* In the end, IWU's depth was the telling factor. Just too much both beef and talent for a very good Wheaton team.   

[bopol]

There are many ways to try to judge the better team, IWU or Wash. U. : 1) Wash. U. has a total of 2 losses, both to CCIW teams on the road, a 25-point hammering by IWU and a 2-point loss at Carthage w/o Malcom Kelly (kind of hard to believe). Wash. U's only win against CCIW teams was a very close 4-point win over Wheaton in St. Louis. So Wash. U. is 1-2 vs. CCIW teams and IWU, if it wins the CCIW tournament (a big if considering what happened last year and what could happen again), will have a 14-2 CCIW record. That favors IWU. 2) Using a different approach to evaluate the relative strengths of the CCIW compared to the UAA, look at Chicago's record. The Maroons are 15-9 and 8-5 in the UAA with a home game left against Wash. U. on Mar. 1. So Chicago is one of the better teams in the UAA. However, their record against CCIW teams is 1-3 with their sole victory against NPU. In their 3 losses to Wheaton, IWU, and Augie, Chicago lost by an average of 20.6 points. That analysis, which I doubt the Midwest Committee will utilize, also favors IWU. I believe that if IWU wins the conf. tournamnet, the Titans will be the top seed in the final and unpublicized Midwest Region rankings.

Ok, counterargument.

Both IWU and Wash U lost at Carthage, so that's a wash.  Malcom Kelly may or may not made a difference as Marlon Senior played unbelievably All-American great in that game.

Wash U lost at IWU, a top 5 team on the road.

IWU lost at Loras (average, though a giant killer this year) and at Augustana (top 25).

This favors Wash U.

Wash U has better SOS by a fair amount (.600 vs. 568).

I don't have a problem with Wash U being ranked higher, though I think IWU has a better chance for a second weekend pod in Bloomington from geography (if the NCAA is that concerned with the 500 mile limit, it'll be easier to put a Wooster and Wash U pod into Bloomington than either of the other two).

[rollthunder]

* Senior Vince Kmiec scored 13 points, and added 7 rebounds, 2 assists, and 3 steals. While I won't detail them all here, Vince appeared among the conference leaders in several categories this year. Among his superlatives is the fact that Vince, who finished sixth in the league in scoring this year, led the league in steals in both 2012-13, and 2013-14. In an era where all too frequently the focus is on offensive statistics, accomplishments on the defensive side are often overlooked. However, any coach will tell you its defense that really wins games.
SIMPLY PUT, GIVEN HIS STATISTICS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BALL, VINCE IS PROBABLY THE BEST COMBINATION OFFENSIVE-DEFENSIVE PLAYER IN THE CCIW. SURELY, HE IS #1 AMONG THE PERIMETER/WING PLAYERS IF NOT IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE.

Kmiec is a great player, but he is not the best combination off/def player in CCIW.

Not only does Tyler Peters outscore Kmiec, but is the best wing defender in the conference. If you had to bet a months salary on one player to play wing defense (especially on-ball defense), you'd put your money on Peters every time.

[AndOne]

Jordan Nelson's 11 points in the first half - including 3 very long 3-pointers - were key in establishing IWU's 9-point halftime lead.  He is a great weapon off the bench for IWU.

* Nelson's important trio of three pointers established a halftime lead which IWU was able to maintain during an evenly played 2nd half. However, (sorry IWU fans) Mr Nelson needs a strong kick in the ass, and lessons in sportsmanship, and class.

I brought this up so I owe the board an explanation.

As I said, I'm sorry to no doubt upset some IWU fans, but those of you who were watching closely had to see Nelson's transgressions, even through green tinted glasses.
How many of you watch football games and just want to slap the idiots who score a touchdown then act like complete asses when they go into one of their celebration gyrations?
Last night Mr. Nelson hit a three, then ran down the court snapping off quick salutes. Not sure if the intent was to say "I'm the greatest," or was meant as a taunt to the Wheaton bench/fans. A short time later he scored another deep three and this time celebrated by sticking out 3 fingers and shaking his hand, with fingers extended, as he made his way back on defense. This was followed by his third deep 3 after which Nelson's reaction was to extend three fingers on both hands and shake both up and down on his way down court.
Sorry, Jordan, but you just need to make your threes, and turn around and get your butt back on defense. No "I'm the greatest or "in your face" celebrating or gesturing. You're lucky you play in today's world. If you would have pulled what you did last night when I played many, many years ago, you would have gotten a strong and quick elbow to the mouth or some other retort that would have set you on your butt. Your actions disrespected your opponent, your school, and yourself. Maybe you learned that crap during your Division I days, but it doesn't fly in the CCIW or   D3 in general. If Coach Rose hasn't spoken to you about last night's display, he needs to. 

[AndOne]

* Senior Vince Kmiec scored 13 points, and added 7 rebounds, 2 assists, and 3 steals. While I won't detail them all here, Vince appeared among the conference leaders in several categories this year. Among his superlatives is the fact that Vince, who finished sixth in the league in scoring this year, led the league in steals in both 2012-13, and 2013-14. In an era where all too frequently the focus is on offensive statistics, accomplishments on the defensive side are often overlooked. However, any coach will tell you its defense that really wins games.
SIMPLY PUT, GIVEN HIS STATISTICS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BALL, VINCE IS PROBABLY THE BEST COMBINATION OFFENSIVE-DEFENSIVE PLAYER IN THE CCIW. SURELY, HE IS #1 AMONG THE PERIMETER/WING PLAYERS IF NOT IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE.

Kmiec is a great player, but he is not the best combination off/def player in CCIW.

Not only does Tyler Peters outscore Kmiec, but is the best wing defender in the conference. If you had to bet a months salary on one player to play wing defense (especially on-ball defense), you'd put your money on Peters every time.

Rollthunder--

First of all, nobody said Peters doesn't outscore Kmiec.

Peters is without doubt a great player. And, not just offensively. However, many of those who have been around for a little more time than it takes to rack up a grand total of 7 posts would not bet a months salary that he is the league's best defender, especially not every time! 

The truth be known, after both North Central's win over WC in Naperville and after the IWU game last night, several great long term Wheaton fans confided to me that they believe Peters wasn't even Wheaton's best all-around asset this season. Mr. Teuscher and Mr. Haynes both received some support in that regard.

As I said, Tyler is a great player. 1st team all conference, likely CCIW POY, and an All-American. But, Vince Kmiec has a more impressive defensive dossier. If the steals stat isn't enough, consider also that Vince had more defensive rebounds than did Tyler. And, don't forget the feelings of some of your fellow orange fans. 

[USee]

Jordan Nelson's 11 points in the first half - including 3 very long 3-pointers - were key in establishing IWU's 9-point halftime lead.  He is a great weapon off the bench for IWU.

* Nelson's important trio of three pointers established a halftime lead which IWU was able to maintain during an evenly played 2nd half. However, (sorry IWU fans) Mr Nelson needs a strong kick in the ass, and lessons in sportsmanship, and class.

I brought this up so I owe the board an explanation.

As I said, I'm sorry to no doubt upset some IWU fans, but those of you who were watching closely had to see Nelson's transgressions, even through green tinted glasses.
How many of you watch football games and just want to slap the idiots who score a touchdown then act like complete asses when they go into one of their celebration gyrations?
Last night Mr. Nelson hit a three, then ran down the court snapping off quick salutes. Not sure if the intent was to say "I'm the greatest," or was meant as a taunt to the Wheaton bench/fans. A short time later he scored another deep three and this time celebrated by sticking out 3 fingers and shaking his hand, with fingers extended, as he made his way back on defense. This was followed by his third deep 3 after which Nelson's reaction was to extend three fingers on both hands and shake both up and down on his way down court.
Sorry, Jordan, but you just need to make your threes, and turn around and get your butt back on defense. No "I'm the greatest or "in your face" celebrating or gesturing. You're lucky you play in today's world. If you would have pulled what you did last night when I played many, many years ago, you would have gotten a strong and quick elbow to the mouth or some other retort that would have set you on your butt. Your actions disrespected your opponent, your school, and yourself. Maybe you learned that crap during your Division I days, but it doesn't fly in the CCIW or   D3 in general. If Coach Rose hasn't spoken to you about last night's display, he needs to.

I agree with this.