MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Titan Q]

Huge win for Benedictine, now 10-0.  The Eagles have wins at IWU, vs Wheaton, at Elmhurst, and at North Central.

All of the sudden, Augustana is not a lock for Central Region #1.  All of the those wins over CCIW teams are huge for BU in the battle with Augie.

[GoPerry]

Yes. Tough loss for NCC, now with 4 non-conference losses also.  I was only watching it on/off but it looked to me like the Cardinals played decently.  They were +4 in rebounding and even in just about every respect with BenU except in 3 point shooting where NCC was a mere 3/15.  BenU is just a very good team with lots of weapons.  They just chipped away at that lead slowly through the 2nd half and finally took the lead with 3 mins left.  In the end, they won on a buzzer layup (a little bit of a Cardinal defensive breakdown I'd have to say) by Tahron Harvey.

Sorenson is a really a ton to handle.  Connor Raridon really reminds me of Derek.  Same build and smooth shot.  I'm wondering why Jayme Moten is not scoring at his same pace of last year?  Last season, he was a pretty dynamic player offensively but he seems to be deferring a lot more this season?

[iwu70]

You have to hand it to BU this year -- they've met the CCIW challenge on all fronts.

I surely hope the Titans get all the injured guys back and figure out what better to do on the defensive end, esp. vs. very quick, slashing type teams.  -- like say North Park!?  Could be ugly . . . or a lot more zones coming. 

I tend to lean toward Q's assessment of the Titans chances to make the Dance this year.  Perhaps top four in CCIW and a CCIW tournament bid, chance, but not sure about doing better than about 18-7 or 17-8.  Time will tell.

I personally think Augie would beat BU rather easily. 

IWU'70

[AppletonRocks]

Regarding D3 tourney selections: I think the committee in recent years has shown not only in selections but also in seeding teams in the 1st and 2nd Rounds pod of 4 an emphasis on strength of schedule. The CCIW, which is probably the best league in the 15/16 season, has a good chance to have its best 3 teams in the field. Get in the CCIW tournament, win the 1st game and the chances of inclusion are fairly good. Look at last year, the top 3 teams were included and NCC barely was excluded. I think the committee recognizes the strength of the CCIW. Elmhurst was only 9-5 in the league last year, really 9-6 including an initial CCIW tourney loss to IWU by 13, but made the tournament. Elmhurst had only 1 nonconf. loss last year, due partly by a less than challenging nonconf. schedule. I realize the overall record is important, however, I don't think an IWU team that goes 10-4 (11-5 including CCIW tourney games) would automatically be excluded on selection Monday. The flip side of that scenario is that IWU would finish 18-9 and NCC was excluded last year with an 18-8 record. But NCC was not a top 3 league team last year. NCC finished 8-7 in league play (including a close loss to Augie in conf. tourney) and 4th at 8-6 a game behind Elmhurst.

Please pass the pipe. 

[GoPerry]

I realize the overall record is important, however, I don't think an IWU team that goes 10-4 (11-5 including CCIW tourney games) would automatically be excluded on selection Monday.

I agree they wouldn't be automatically excluded and there won't be a problem with SOS.  In fact, Massey has NCC, WC, NPU, IWU and AC trending to have the 1st-5th strongest schedules in the country.  It's the overall record that will be their hurdle.  In my opinion, the 3rd place team in the league this year will have a tough time going 10-4;  9-5 is more likely than in past seasons.  I believe Augie and Elmhurst are clearly the 1 & 2 and it wouldn't be surprising if NCC, IWU,  and NPU go 3-3 against each other although it seems that, despite lastnight's loss NCC might be getting a little wind under their wings. 

Yes, SOS is important but I wouldn't think it trumps W-L record and %.  Moreover, to really hypothesize on IWU and NCC, they currently stand 2-3 vs likely RR.  I doubt NCC, IWU, NPU would be regionally ranked right now so that leaves only games vs Augie and EC to make headway on that. 

All of this is just late December speculation of course.  Looking forward to Jan 2 tip offs.

[Titan Q]

I realize the overall record is important, however, I don't think an IWU team that goes 10-4 (11-5 including CCIW tourney games) would automatically be excluded on selection Monday. The flip side of that scenario is that IWU would finish 18-9 and NCC was excluded last year with an 18-8 record. But NCC was not a top 3 league team last year. NCC finished 8-7 in league play (including a close loss to Augie in conf. tourney) and 4th at 8-6 a game behind Elmhurst.

Not automatically excluded...but the odds would very long based on historical Pool C selections.

Conference standings are not a factor at all.  The selection committee is just looking at the official criteria (winning %, SOS, RRO, etc)...and that isn't one. 

As I see it, IWU needs to get to 11-3 in the CCIW, then go 1-1 in the conference tournament, to get a Pool C.

[AndOne]

I realize the overall record is important, however, I don't think an IWU team that goes 10-4 (11-5 including CCIW tourney games) would automatically be excluded on selection Monday. The flip side of that scenario is that IWU would finish 18-9 and NCC was excluded last year with an 18-8 record. But NCC was not a top 3 league team last year. NCC finished 8-7 in league play (including a close loss to Augie in conf. tourney) and 4th at 8-6 a game behind Elmhurst.

Not automatically excluded...but the odds would very long based on historical Pool C selections.

Conference standings are not a factor at all.  The selection committee is just looking at the official criteria (winning %, SOS, RRO, etc)...and that isn't one. 

As I see it, IWU needs to get to 11-3 in the CCIW, then go 1-1 in the conference tournament, to get a Pool C.

NCC & IWU both have 4 losses so it seems the same theory might also apply to the Cardinals.

Lanny-

Yes, NCC was 18-8 last season and was excluded from the tournament. There was no doubt, absolutely none, that they were one of the top 64 teams in the country. Actually, they were likely one of the 32 best teams in the country. If they had gotten in, the odds were that they would have won at least one game, and very likely two--especially when you consider that they beat both of the teams that played in the national championship game (another reason IMHO that they should have had the opportunity to dance). However, the problem was that two of their wins were against non NCAA teams. So, as far as the Committee was concerned, they only had 16 wins.

[Titan Q]

Here are the 19 Pool C selections from last season -- my best guess (from selection day 2015) at the order they were picked in.

(D3 winning percentage/Strength of Schedule/Results vs Regionally Ranked)

1. (GL) Marietta (.893/.519/4-3)
2. (MA) Johns Hopkins (.852/.539/3-3)
3. (C) UW-Stevens Point (.808/.575/2-4)
4. (C)  Washington U. (.800/.565/4-2)
5. (GL) Ohio Wesleyan (.815/.537/3-1)
6. (NE) Trinity-Conn. (.792/.535/5-1)
7. (NE) Amherst (.741/.579/6-3)
8. (NE) Bates (.760/.609/4-5)
9. (AT) William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
10. (GL) Wooster (.786/.551/3-2)
11. (C) Illinois Wesleyan (.704/.591/5-5)
12. (C) Elmhurst (.731/.551/4-4)
13. (S) Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
14. (GL) John Carroll (.769/.527/3-3)
15. (W) St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)
16. (MA) Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
17. (NE) Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
18. (NE) WPI (.808/.515/2-3)
19. (NE) Springfield (.704/.584/3-5)

Not Selected: (C) North Central (.667/.587/3-6)[/b]

The lowest winning percentage selected was .704.

* If IWU finishes the non-conference 7-4, goes 10-4 in the CCIW, and 1-1 in the conference tournament...that's 18-9 (.667).  11-3 in the CCIW is 19-8 (.704).

* NCC has a big problem in that its final non-conference game (vs NAIA Robert Morris-Chicago) won't count.  NCC's non-conference record is locked in at 6-4.  10-4/1-1 = 17-9 (.654).  11-3 in the CCIW = 18-8 (.692).

So I'm staying with the thought that IWU needs 11-3.  And considering the Robert Morris-Chicago situation, I don't think 11-3 is good enough for NCC.  (Something tells me NCC sneaks in in the 11-3 scenario...but it would be at the end of the bubble.)

North Park is 6-3 -- but probably without the SOS of IWU and NCC.

[AndOne]

Yes. Tough loss for NCC, now with 4 non-conference losses also.  I was only watching it on/off but it looked to me like the Cardinals played decently.  They were +4 in rebounding and even in just about every respect with BenU except in 3 point shooting where NCC was a mere 3/15.  BenU is just a very good team with lots of weapons.  They just chipped away at that lead slowly through the 2nd half and finally took the lead with 3 mins left.  In the end, they won on a buzzer layup (a little bit of a Cardinal defensive breakdown I'd have to say) by Tahron Harvey.

Sorenson is a really a ton to handle.  Connor Raridon really reminds me of Derek.  Same build and smooth shot.  I'm wondering why Jayme Moten is not scoring at his same pace of last year?  Last season, he was a pretty dynamic player offensively but he seems to be deferring a lot more this season?

Massey has NCC, WC, NPU, IWU and AC trending to have the 1st-5th strongest schedules in the country.  It's the overall record that will be their hurdle.  In my opinion, the 3rd place team in the league this year will have a tough time going 10-4;  9-5 is more likely than in past seasons.  I believe Augie and Elmhurst are clearly the 1 & 2 and it wouldn't be surprising if NCC, IWU,  and NPU go 3-3 against each other although it seems that, despite last night's loss NCC might be getting a little wind under their wings. 

Yes, SOS is important but I wouldn't think it trumps W-L record and %.  Moreover, to really hypothesize on IWU and NCC, they currently stand 2-3 vs likely RR.  I doubt NCC, IWU, NPU would be regionally ranked right now so that leaves only games vs Augie and EC to make headway on that. 

All of this is just late December speculation of course.  Looking forward to Jan 2 tip offs.

Yes, a very tough loss for NCC last night. As a fan it was painful, so I expect that pain was/is felt to an even deeper degree by the players and coaches. Last night BU began the 2nd half with a vengeance. They attacked, while the Cardinals seemed to be lulled into a sense of complacency by their 10 point lead. They sat back and allowed Benedictine to seize control. They coldn't contain Tahron Harvey. Technically, the on the ball/man defense was pretty decent. The real problems ensued when BU kept setting ball screens for Harvey, and the Cardinals failed to switch on a timely basis thus creating just to darn many open looks.

The Cardinals have lost 4 games to date. Three of those losses have been by 3, 2, and 1 point. With needing to have scored an additional 4, 3, and 2 points to win those games, they are 9 points from being 9-1. In their loss to Aurora they were ahead by 16 at the half, and last night they led Benedictine by 10 at the break. Those are games that should have ended win a W. They have beaten the #7 and #9 (at the time) teams in the country so the ability is there.

Three primary factors have been responsible for NCC's losses to Aurora, Alma, and Benedictine:
1. Inability to finish. They led at halftime in all 3 games.
2. Poor three point shooting, and, ESPECIALLY;
3. Crappy FT shooting.

North Central is still searching for an identity. Having so many new faces, they are still learning how to play together and what each player's primary role is, especially on the offensive end. They have talent as evidenced by wins over #7 Mt. Union, and #9 Stevens Point, and by being within a few points from being 9-1. They have some wind under their wings as GO PERRY indicated. They need to overcome the deficiencies enumerated above to turn that breeze into a gale.

[AndOne]

Here are the 19 Pool C selections from last season -- my best guess (from selection day 2015) at the order they were picked in.

(D3 winning percentage/Strength of Schedule/Results vs Regionally Ranked)

1. (GL) Marietta (.893/.519/4-3)
2. (MA) Johns Hopkins (.852/.539/3-3)
3. (C) UW-Stevens Point (.808/.575/2-4)
4. (C)  Washington U. (.800/.565/4-2)
5. (GL) Ohio Wesleyan (.815/.537/3-1)
6. (NE) Trinity-Conn. (.792/.535/5-1)
7. (NE) Amherst (.741/.579/6-3)
8. (NE) Bates (.760/.609/4-5)
9. (AT) William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
10. (GL) Wooster (.786/.551/3-2)
11. (C) Illinois Wesleyan (.704/.591/5-5)
12. (C) Elmhurst (.731/.551/4-4)
13. (S) Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
14. (GL) John Carroll (.769/.527/3-3)
15. (W) St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)
16. (MA) Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
17. (NE) Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
18. (NE) WPI (.808/.515/2-3)
19. (NE) Springfield (.704/.584/3-5)

Not Selected: (C) North Central (.667/.587/3-6)[/b]

The lowest winning percentage selected was .704.

* If IWU finishes the non-conference 7-4, goes 10-4 in the CCIW, and 1-1 in the conference tournament...that's 18-9 (.667).  11-3 in the CCIW is 19-8 (.704).

* NCC has a big problem in that its final non-conference game (vs NAIA Robert Morris-Chicago) won't count.  NCC's non-conference record is locked in at 6-4.  10-4/1-1 = 17-9 (.654).  11-3 in the CCIW = 18-8 (.692).

So I'm staying with the thought that IWU needs 11-3.  And considering the Robert Morris-Chicago situation, I don't think 11-3 is good enough for NCC.  (Something tells me NCC sneaks in in the 11-3 scenario...but it would be at the end of the bubble.)

North Park is 6-3 -- but probably without the SOS of IWU and NCC.

Makes sense.
I guess what NCC fans have to hope for is either a split with AC, EC, and either IWU or NPU or a split with two of the four, 2 wins over the other two, and a loss to someone other than any of the mentioned teams. A tall order indeed. Hopefully, arguably having the nation's #1 SOS will tip the scales in their favor.

[kiko]

Yes. Tough loss for NCC, now with 4 non-conference losses also.  I was only watching it on/off but it looked to me like the Cardinals played decently.  They were +4 in rebounding and even in just about every respect with BenU except in 3 point shooting where NCC was a mere 3/15.  BenU is just a very good team with lots of weapons.  They just chipped away at that lead slowly through the 2nd half and finally took the lead with 3 mins left.  In the end, they won on a buzzer layup (a little bit of a Cardinal defensive breakdown I'd have to say) by Tahron Harvey.

Sorenson is a really a ton to handle.  Connor Raridon really reminds me of Derek.  Same build and smooth shot.  I'm wondering why Jayme Moten is not scoring at his same pace of last year?  Last season, he was a pretty dynamic player offensively but he seems to be deferring a lot more this season?

Massey has NCC, WC, NPU, IWU and AC trending to have the 1st-5th strongest schedules in the country.  It's the overall record that will be their hurdle.  In my opinion, the 3rd place team in the league this year will have a tough time going 10-4;  9-5 is more likely than in past seasons.  I believe Augie and Elmhurst are clearly the 1 & 2 and it wouldn't be surprising if NCC, IWU,  and NPU go 3-3 against each other although it seems that, despite last night's loss NCC might be getting a little wind under their wings. 

Yes, SOS is important but I wouldn't think it trumps W-L record and %.  Moreover, to really hypothesize on IWU and NCC, they currently stand 2-3 vs likely RR.  I doubt NCC, IWU, NPU would be regionally ranked right now so that leaves only games vs Augie and EC to make headway on that. 

All of this is just late December speculation of course.  Looking forward to Jan 2 tip offs.

Yes, a very tough loss for NCC last night. As a fan it was painful, so I expect that pain was/is felt to an even deeper degree by the players and coaches. Last night BU began the 2nd half with a vengeance. They attacked, while the Cardinals seemed to be lulled into a sense of complacency by their 10 point lead. They sat back and allowed Benedictine to seize control. They coldn't contain Tahron Harvey. Technically, the on the ball/man defense was pretty decent. The real problems ensued when BU kept setting ball screens for Harvey, and the Cardinals failed to switch on a timely basis thus creating just to darn many open looks.

The Cardinals have lost 4 games to date. Three of those losses have been by 3, 2, and 1 point. With needing to have scored an additional 4, 3, and 2 points to win those games, they are 9 points from being 9-1. In their loss to Aurora they were ahead by 16 at the half, and last night they led Benedictine by 10 at the break. Those are games that should have ended win a W. They have beaten the #7 and #9 (at the time) teams in the country so the ability is there.

Three primary factors have been responsible for NCC's losses to Aurora, Alma, and Benedictine:
1. Inability to finish. They led at halftime in all 3 games.
2. Poor three point shooting, and, ESPECIALLY;
3. Crappy FT shooting.

North Central is still searching for an identity. Having so many new faces, they are still learning how to play together and what each player's primary role is, especially on the offensive end. They have talent as evidenced by wins over #7 Mt. Union, and #9 Stevens Point, and by being within a few points from being 9-1. They have some wind under their wings as GO PERRY indicated. They need to overcome the deficiencies enumerated above to turn that breeze into a gale.

This is an interesting math exercise, but doesn't really advance an argument in favor of the Cards.  I am as big of a Red and White advocate as anyone, but the record is what the record is.

I do agree with your rationale for the losses -- especially #1.  The Sons of Warden had double-digit leads against Aurora and the Bennies, and led Alma by six with 13 and change to go.  These are games that tournament-aspiring teams need to win.  The talent is obviously there, and my hope is that the Cards will figure this part out quickly in the coming games.

The other thing I scratch my head with is the rationale for scheduling a non-D3 opponent.  I hope this came about because a hole opened up in the schedule at a late date.  Unlike in football, there is ample flexibility from a date standpoint in which to schedule D3 opponents, and I have to believe that the sort of challenges that North Central experiences in scheduling football opponents is not a notable factor when seeking basketball opponents.

There is zero benefit to scheduling an opponent outside of D3, and playing teams outside the division should only be done as a rare exception where there are extenuating circumstances. 

[hopefan]

To all the good guys on the CCIW Board:

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year from the good guys on the OTHER board in the Central Region!!

                                                    The SLIAC Board

                                                                   

[Titan Q]

To all the good guys on the CCIW Board:

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year from the good guys on the OTHER board in the Central Region!!

                                                    The SLIAC Board

                                                                   

Merry Christmas, hopefan!

[AndOne]

MERRY CHRISTMAS and HAPPY NEW YEAR to ALL posters.
Our numbers seem to be dwindling. Hoping the New Year brings us some new additions/fresh perspectives. Peace. 😊

[Mr. Ypsi]

To all the good guys on the CCIW Board:

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year from the good guys on the OTHER board in the Central Region!!

                                                    The SLIAC Board

                                                                   

What, you're not gonna wish Gregory a Merry Christmas?!

(Just kidding, Greg. )

Merry Christmas to hopefan, the SLIAC, and all the CCIW posters (whether good guys or not! ).