MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Rafi]

This may have been discussed in years past, but why did the CCIW start a conference tournament?  It's great for the fans, and gives a bubble team a chance to get the AQ.  But, it's really hard on the pool C candidates if they don't win it.  If a team doesn't win the tournament, their W% will always go down (going 0-1 or 1-1 in the tourney).

This year it looks like it might impact NCC unless they go 12-2.  Without the conference tournament, they would look better for Pool C at 11-3.

I'm sure it's impacted others in past years.

[Naperick]

It is actually Selection Sunday since all of the work is done on that day... we just don't see the announcement until Monday.

That makes sense.

Thanks again!

[Naperick]

This may have been discussed in years past, but why did the CCIW start a conference tournament?  It's great for the fans, and gives a bubble team a chance to get the AQ.  But, it's really hard on the pool C candidates if they don't win it.  If a team doesn't win the tournament, their W% will always go down (going 0-1 or 1-1 in the tourney).

This year it looks like it might impact NCC unless they go 12-2.  Without the conference tournament, they would look better for Pool C at 11-3.

I'm sure it's impacted others in past years.

I would also like to see all 8 teams in it.  It would give a struggling team hope in the "rough days" of late January and February.  Carroll University joining next season would make that a bit tricky. 

[79jaybird]

Winning in Rock Island lately has been a mountain of a challenge for many reasons.

But- For Elmhurst to pull off an upset IMO a couple of things have to happen

A) shooting- The Jays have to shoot the ball much better than they have the last 2 games.  Frankly, should have been 2 losses and not 1-1.  Plus, not just shooting, but taking better, high % shots.  Also, being controlled and not "panic flares"

B) Rebounding-  both sides,   can't give Augie multiple opportunities on offense and then Augie's great D is going to make Elmhurst struggle offensively,   thus need the rebound for 2nd and 3rd opportunities.

IMO-  Going to be tough for our blue & white.  I think Augie wins this game by 12-14 points.  But anything can happen.  Go EC.

[79jaybird]

Also my 2 cents-  I was not a fan of the CCIW tournament at first, however really like it now.  Top 4 is ok,  not sure if including all 8 would be good.  Many times your #7 and #8 teams are so looking forward to the off season (or concluding their poor season) etc,  so I'm indifferent on that front.

[Rafi]

This may have been discussed in years past, but why did the CCIW start a conference tournament?  It's great for the fans, and gives a bubble team a chance to get the AQ.  But, it's really hard on the pool C candidates if they don't win it.  If a team doesn't win the tournament, their W% will always go down (going 0-1 or 1-1 in the tourney).

This year it looks like it might impact NCC unless they go 12-2.  Without the conference tournament, they would look better for Pool C at 11-3.

I'm sure it's impacted others in past years.

I would also like to see all 8 teams in it.  It would give a struggling team hope in the "rough days" of late January and February.  Carroll University joining next season would make that a bit tricky.

I wasn't really advocating an 8-team tournament because the best you can do in that scenario is 2-1, without winning it, and that would most likely lower the win% for the pool C contenders.

I was really thinking more about the regular season champion having slugged out a 14-game schedule and possibly not getting the AQ.  Add to that, the win% problem for pool C, and I'm really wondering what the advantage of the tournament really is.

[sac]

This may have been discussed in years past, but why did the CCIW start a conference tournament?  It's great for the fans, and gives a bubble team a chance to get the AQ.  But, it's really hard on the pool C candidates if they don't win it.  If a team doesn't win the tournament, their W% will always go down (going 0-1 or 1-1 in the tourney).

This year it looks like it might impact NCC unless they go 12-2.  Without the conference tournament, they would look better for Pool C at 11-3.

I'm sure it's impacted others in past years.

The CCIW has had 3 in the tournament (ie 2 Pool C's) every year since the 2009 tournament except 2011.  That year NCC tied for the league title but were just 15-11 overall.   Wheaton went 18-8 and were probably on the final table on selection day.  Augustana and IWU earned bids.

By having a tournament you are only losing ground on those conferences that don't have a tournament like the UAA.  You are actually gaining ground by using the 4 team format on most conferences that go 6 or 8 or larger like the ODAC because your top teams SOS components are not as impacted by having to play one of the bottom teams of your conference.

[Gregory Sager]

Bringing this back regarding NCC and Pool C...

Here are the 19 Pool C selections from last season -- my best guess (from selection day 2015) at the order they were picked in.

(D3 winning percentage/Strength of Schedule/Results vs Regionally Ranked)

1. (GL) Marietta (.893/.519/4-3)
2. (MA) Johns Hopkins (.852/.539/3-3)
3. (C) UW-Stevens Point (.808/.575/2-4)
4. (C)  Washington U. (.800/.565/4-2)
5. (GL) Ohio Wesleyan (.815/.537/3-1)
6. (NE) Trinity-Conn. (.792/.535/5-1)
7. (NE) Amherst (.741/.579/6-3)
8. (NE) Bates (.760/.609/4-5)
9. (AT) William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
10. (GL) Wooster (.786/.551/3-2)
11. (C) Illinois Wesleyan (.704/.591/5-5)
12. (C) Elmhurst (.731/.551/4-4)
13. (S) Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
14. (GL) John Carroll (.769/.527/3-3)
15. (W) St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)
16. (MA) Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
17. (NE) Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
18. (NE) WPI (.808/.515/2-3)
19. (NE) Springfield (.704/.584/3-5)

Not Selected: (C) North Central (.667/.587/3-6)[/b]

The lowest winning percentage selected was .704.

* If IWU finishes the non-conference 7-4, goes 10-4 in the CCIW, and 1-1 in the conference tournament...that's 18-9 (.667).  11-3 in the CCIW is 19-8 (.704).

* NCC has a big problem in that its final non-conference game (vs NAIA Robert Morris-Chicago) won't count.  NCC's non-conference record is locked in at 6-4.  10-4/1-1 = 17-9 (.654).  11-3 in the CCIW = 18-8 (.692).

So I'm staying with the thought that IWU needs 11-3.  And considering the Robert Morris-Chicago situation, I don't think 11-3 is good enough for NCC.  (Something tells me NCC sneaks in in the 11-3 scenario...but it would be at the end of the bubble.)

North Park is 6-3 -- but probably without the SOS of IWU and NCC.

Your last statement isn't true anymore, Bob, or at least it isn't true at the moment. Although Massey's got IWU one slot ahead of NPU right now in terms of SoS, this is how the SoS of the three teams in question look with regard to straight wins and losses:

North Central	117-44 (.720)
North Park	100-56 (.640)
Illinois Wesleyan	113-64 (.630)

(These totals, of course, do not count NPU's win over second-year provo Illinois Tech, nor do they count NCC's win over NAIA member Robert Morris-Chicago.)

My read of the respective opponents of North Park and Illinois Wesleyan is that their respective SoS should remain fairly close.

Tom Slyder is not at all happy to have wasted a game on a team that didn't count towards his winning percentage for Pool C purposes. But the upside is that Illinois Tech (3-16 overall, 2-15 vs. D3) would have dragged down NPU's SoS dramatically if that game had counted towards it.

[Gregory Sager]

GS - totally agree with you on J Henry and some nights required to do too much.  Played with many guys similar and you have to admire and respect the fact he sometimes forces the action when his squad his flat.  You may laugh but it takes talent and supreme confidence to want to "put a team on your back."

In no way were my initial comments meant to be disrespectful - I find him extremely talented and love his motor.

Of course. I read it the way that you meant it. No prob.

Exactly what I was thinking.   NCC needs to go 11-3 in conference just to get on the bubble to get their SOS considered.  On the other hand, guessing their record vs RR opponents(my own projection) is looking like 1-5 right now (W-Elmhurst, L-Chicago, Aurora, Alma, BenU, Augie) and this could be a problem.

I think that you may be underestimating NCC's non-con sked, GP, at least in terms of its potential.

* Mount Union (12-5, 8-2 OAC) has not been as dominant as originally projected (injuries have hurt the Purple Raiders this season), but UMU could still very well make the Great Lakes Region rankings, especially if the Raiders can muster up wins against the two OAC teams immediately below them in the standings, Baldwin Wallace and Capital, in their next two games.

* Hartwick (11-6, 6-2 Empire 8) is a game out of first in the E8 standings. The Hawks have a four-game stretch coming up against teams that don't have winning records, and follow it up by hosting E8 leader Nazareth the night before the first regional ranking comes out. If the Hawks can go into that Nazareth game with four more wins under their belt and then pull off the home win, they could make the East Region rankings.

* Centre (11-6, 3-3 SAA) isn't going to catch Birmingham-Southern for the SAA lead, since BSC is undefeated in league play. But, like Hartwick, Centre's record is good enough for the Colonels to sneak into the regional rankings if they can string together a few wins.

North Central beat all three of these teams.

This may have been discussed in years past, but why did the CCIW start a conference tournament?  It's great for the fans, and gives a bubble team a chance to get the AQ.  But, it's really hard on the pool C candidates if they don't win it.  If a team doesn't win the tournament, their W% will always go down (going 0-1 or 1-1 in the tourney).

This year it looks like it might impact NCC unless they go 12-2.  Without the conference tournament, they would look better for Pool C at 11-3.

I'm sure it's impacted others in past years.

It was instituted because of a copycat mentality. Other leagues have conference tourneys, so why don't we have one, too? The coaches of the teams that weren't particularly good in the middle of the last decade, when the CCIW tourney was created, were particularly keen on it. Several of us CCIW Chat regulars argued vociferously against it, for precisely the reason you pointed out. Naturally, nobody listened to us.

I do get that it offers an additional weekend of CCIW basketball, and that, since only the top four teams are involved, the games are often exciting and well-played. But the soundest rationale for holding them on the D1 level -- additional ticket revenue for the league -- is negligible on this level. I still think it does more harm than good.

And, yes, I will still maintain that belief even if NPU gets into the CCIW tourney and needs to win it in order to go dancing.

It is unfortunate that early season losses seem to weigh as heavily as any other losses with regard to Pool C selection.  Many teams, NC for example, have so many new players that they are still learning each others names in Nov and Dec.  They seem to have come together nicely as Coach Raridon and his staff have guided them to a terrific 1st half of the conference games.  Every team probably has 1 or 2 games a season that don't make sense.  NC will hope they've had theirs.

I don't think it's unfortunate at all, because the conditions you mentioned -- new players adjusting to their team's systems and to their new teammates -- hold true for everybody. You can't grant special dispensation to one team over another just because the first team has more new players than does the other team. Nobody gets a mulligan for a November or early December loss, and that's as it should be. Everybody knows the selection criteria coming into the season, which means that every coach is aware that if his team isn't ready to win at tipoff time on opening night, the team could pay the price for it on Selection Sunday.

[Rafi]

This may have been discussed in years past, but why did the CCIW start a conference tournament?  It's great for the fans, and gives a bubble team a chance to get the AQ.  But, it's really hard on the pool C candidates if they don't win it.  If a team doesn't win the tournament, their W% will always go down (going 0-1 or 1-1 in the tourney).

This year it looks like it might impact NCC unless they go 12-2.  Without the conference tournament, they would look better for Pool C at 11-3.

I'm sure it's impacted others in past years.

The CCIW has had 3 in the tournament (ie 2 Pool C's) every year since the 2009 tournament except 2011.  That year NCC tied for the league title but were just 15-11 overall.   Wheaton went 18-8 and were probably on the final table on selection day.  Augustana and IWU earned bids.

By having a tournament you are only losing ground on those conferences that don't have a tournament like the UAA.  You are actually gaining ground by using the 4 team format on most conferences that go 6 or 8 or larger like the ODAC because your top teams SOS components are not as impacted by having to play one of the bottom teams of your conference.

Valid points.  I guess I'm just not a fan of conference tournaments having such an impact on the prospects of getting into the national tournament (both positive and negative), after the teams having already played a full conference schedule.

It just seems to have a greater impact than at the D1 level because of fewer games being played at D3.

[AppletonRocks]

Carroll will dominate this league next year.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

It is unfortunate that early season losses seem to weigh as heavily as any other losses with regard to Pool C selection.  Many teams, NC for example, have so many new players that they are still learning each others names in Nov and Dec.  They seem to have come together nicely as Coach Raridon and his staff have guided them to a terrific 1st half of the conference games.  Every team probably has 1 or 2 games a season that don't make sense.  NC will hope they've had theirs.

I don't think it's unfortunate at all, because the conditions you mentioned -- new players adjusting to their team's systems and to their new teammates -- hold true for everybody. You can't grant special dispensation to one team over another just because the first team has more new players than does the other team. Nobody gets a mulligan for a November or early December loss, and that's as it should be. Everybody knows the selection criteria coming into the season, which means that every coach is aware that if his team isn't ready to win at tipoff time on opening night, the team could pay the price for it on Selection Sunday.

I can't tell you how many times a coach has said to me that very sentiment about coming to the Hoopsville Classic. They want to play in a tough tournament to help their at large chances (and "seeding"/hosting opportunities) and stress to their team that games in November mean the same as those in February. They point out they are playing a tough opponent because they need to win or play well early. Interestingly, can't get a couple of NESCAC teams interested that early in the season .

If you don't want the beginning of the season to carry as much weight as the end of the season, then root for a team in D1 men's and women's basketball. Those are pretty much the only two NCAA tournament sports where the criteria doesn't consider the beginning the season as strongly as the end.

[bbfan44]

Which, according to the Selection Committee is better to have, a good record or high strength of schedule?
If you know you're going to be graduating a lot of seniors, then it seems like you should schedule some "cup cakes" while the team is coming together in Nov and Dec and potentially have a good record at the end of the year if all goes well during the season.

[AndOne]

OK, Dave McHugh has basically indicated that a strong SOS isn't gonna help you unless you win a majority of those games. So NCC probably won't get much credit for beating #s 7, 9, and 2 along with the other schools Greg mentioned above or for losing to undefeated BU by 2. They also won't get any credit for being in a conference that features two of the best teams in the country as well as two other very tough unranked teams. Right or wrong, that's the rules. And I'm not talking only about NCC, but teams like NPU and IWU. Sometimes I think that it sure would be nice to be a very good team in a generally inferior conference. Just crush most of your conference competition on a pretty regular basis. 
But absent of that scenario, what's the answer to what is the best way to get into the national tournament? It's a three part answer that amounts to a phrase we've all heard before, "just win baby." Rule #1-No non NCAA D3 teams. Rule #2-No wearing yourself out with long distance travel, especially by bus. If you can fly to a tournament in a nice location where you know you are ging to play two also-rans, that's OK. Rule #3-especially if you are in a situation like NCC, NPU, & IWU-work your butt off to schedule as many non-conference games as possible against teams that are as bad as possible.
If the likelihood of losing 4-6 conference games is high due to being n a super tough conference, then pack your non-conference schedule with as many "easy" wins as possible, because it sure seems that what the selection committee wants most of all---is WINS. So, go 11-0 or 10-1 (9-0 or 8-1 next yr),  in non-conf., and 9-5 or 10-4 in conference, and you're in! If SOS isn't going to be strongly considered, then give 'em what they seem to want-wins!

[iwumichigander]

OK, Dave McHugh has basically indicated that a strong SOS isn't gonna help you unless you win a majority of those games. So NCC probably won't get much credit for beating #s 7, 9, and 2 along with the other schools Greg mentioned above or for losing to undefeated BU by 2. They also won't get any credit for being in a conference that features two of the best teams in the country as well as two other very tough unranked teams. Right or wrong, that's the rules. And I'm not talking only about NCC, but teams like NPU and IWU. Sometimes I think that it sure would be nice to be a very good team in a generally inferior conference. Just crush most of your conference competition on a pretty regular basis. 
But absent of that scenario, what's the answer to what is the best way to get into the national tournament? It's a three part answer that amounts to a phrase we've all heard before, "just win baby." Rule #1-No non NCAA D3 teams. Rule #2-No wearing yourself out with long distance travel, especially by bus. If you can fly to a tournament in a nice location where you know you are ging to play two also-rans, that's OK. Rule #3-especially if you are in a situation like NCC, NPU, & IWU-work your butt off to schedule as many non-conference games as possible against teams that are as bad as possible.
If the likelihood of losing 4-6 conference games is high due to being n a super tough conference, then pack your non-conference schedule with as many "easy" wins as possible, because it sure seems that what the selection committee wants most of all---is WINS. So, go 11-0 or 10-1 (9-0 or 8-1 next yr),  in non-conf., and 9-5 or 10-4 in conference, and you're in! If SOS isn't going to be strongly considered, then give 'em what they seem to want-wins!

Or, be Williams or Amherst in the NESCAC to meet all the above scenarios