MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Guess I opened up a can of bracket worms about BU.  As one of the top seeds, they may of course get a first round bye, too.  My own view is that when they run into a top 15 team, some team really tough and well-tested, they go down.  We'll see.  Not much DIII tournament experience, right?  Maybe they make it to the round of 16, but my own view is that they don't.  IMHO.

Honestly, I think there are enough scenarios out there that the byes are going to go to the geographic challenges (Whitworth, Texas, Emory, elsewhere) then to any top regionally ranked teams this year.

[Gregory Sager]

Current Massey (SoS in parentheses):

    2. Augustana (4)
    5. North Central (1)
    6. Elmhurst (6)
  36. North Park (3)
  62. Illinois Wesleyan (5)
142. Millikin (15)
162. Carthage (16)
241. Wheaton (8)

Massey sez:

Augustana 77, @ Wheaton 54 (AC 97% favorite)
@ Millikin 69, Carthage 67 (MU 56% favorite)
North Central 83, @ North Park 75 (NCC 77% favorite)
Elmhurst 81, @ Illinois Wesleyan 75 (EC 70% favorite)

[AndOne]

As far as NPU vs IWU goes, the IWU/Elmhurst game is meaningless.  The 4-seed comes down to whether North Park wins or loses against North Central.

(NPU wins the 7-7 tie-breaker...IWU wins the 6-8 tie-breaker.)

Current Massey (SoS in parentheses):

    2. Augustana (4)
    5. North Central (1)
    6. Elmhurst (6)
  36. North Park (3)
  62. Illinois Wesleyan (5)

Massey sez:

North Central 83, @ North Park 75 (NCC 77% favorite)
Elmhurst 81, @ Illinois Wesleyan 75 (EC 70% favorite)

So NCC has a lot at stake Saturday.

I agree. The Cardinals have a lot to play for Saturday at North Park - they want to solidify their Pool C chances should they not win the conference tournament in Rock Island.  If you are an IWU fan that needs North Park to lose, at least you know you're getting a North Central team that's got a lot on the line.  Should be a great game in Chicago.

And there you have it!

* NCC will be playing for it's national tourney life in this game and in the conference tourney semifinal vs Elmhurst if it can't run the table and secure the AQ.

* As to the conference tourney--If NCC wins, IWU is in. If NPU wins, they are in. NPU controls it's own destiny. IWU does not.

[iwu70]

Of course, AO, the Titan nation will be pulling for your boys to continue their winning ways on Saturday.  Well, at least vs. NPU.

Looks to me like EC vs. NCC in one tourney semi, and IWU vs. Augie in the other.  Time will tell.

IWU'70

[veterancciwfan]

Just looking at the 2nd week of Regional Rankings and I will repeat what I posted before: If you want to be ranked 1st or 2nd regionally and have an excellent chance either to host or play a weak team in Round 1, the formula is simple: Lose the fewest games. Just check the  8 Regional Rankings for the 1st two teams. In most cases, the #1 team has the fewest losses and the #2 team has the 2nd fewest losses. In the Central, St. Norbert has 2 losses and is #3. And tell me what St. Norbert has ever done in the D3 tournament. They got beat at home in the 1st round last year to Elmhurst, the third and last CCIW team to be selected. In 2014, St. Norbert came to IWU, won a 1st Round game and lost to IWU in the 2nd Round. My guess is that St. Norbert will play and lose in the 1st or 2nd round this year even though by Regional Rankings, they are one of the top 24 D3 teams in the country. And why are they ranked #3 in the Central? Because they play in the Midwest Conf and usually dominate it, with Benedictine spoiling their party in 2016. I'm pleased that the Central Committee placed NCC 4th ahead of EC even though the Jays had 2 fewer losses primarily and maybe solely due to the head to head results.

[AndOne]

Just looking at the 2nd week of Regional Rankings and I will repeat what I posted before: If you want to be ranked 1st or 2nd regionally and have an excellent chance either to host or play a weak team in Round 1, the formula is simple: Lose the fewest games. Just check the  8 Regional Rankings for the 1st two teams. In most cases, the #1 team has the fewest losses and the #2 team has the 2nd fewest losses. In the Central, St. Norbert has 2 losses and is #3. And tell me what St. Norbert has ever done in the D3 tournament. They got beat at home in the 1st round last year to Elmhurst, the third and last CCIW team to be selected. In 2014, St. Norbert came to IWU, won a 1st Round game and lost to IWU in the 2nd Round. My guess is that St. Norbert will play and lose in the 1st or 2nd round this year even though by Regional Rankings, they are one of the top 24 D3 teams in the country. And why are they ranked #3 in the Central? Because they play in the Midwest Conf and usually dominate it, with Benedictine spoiling their party in 2016. I'm pleased that the Central Committee placed NCC 4th ahead of EC even though the Jays had 2 fewer losses primarily and maybe solely due to the head to head results.

OK, Dave McHugh has basically indicated that a strong SOS isn't gonna help you unless you win a majority of those games. So, sometimes I think that it sure would be nice to be a very good team in a generally inferior conference, and just crush most of your conference competition on a pretty regular basis. 
But absent of that scenario, what's the answer to what is the best way to get into the national tournament? It's an answer that amounts to a phrase we've all heard before, "just win baby."
If the likelihood of losing 4-6 conference games is high due to being in a super tough conference, then pack your non-conference schedule with as many "easy" wins as possible, because it sure seems that what the selection committee wants most of all---is WINS. So, go 11-0 or 10-1 (9-0 or 8-1 next yr),  in non-conf., and 9-5 or 10-4 in conference, and you're in! If SOS isn't going to be strongly considered, then give 'em what they seem to want-wins!

Exactly, veteran.
Have agreed with this theory for a while.

[Titan Q]

Illinois Wesleyan (12-12, 6-7) vs Elmhurst  (20-4, 10-3), 7:00pm

Illinois Wesleyan (12-12, 6-7)
G - Brian Nelms, 5-11/170 Sr.  (2.0 ppg, 0.6 rpg, 1.3 apg)
G - Joel Pennington, 6-0/180 Sr.  (9.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.6 rpg)
G - Colin Bonnett, 6-3/195 Fr.  (5.8 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.1 apg)
F - Ryan Coyle, 6-6/210 Sr.  (8.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg)
F - Trevor Seibring, 6-8/235 Jr.  (14.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg)

Elmhurst (20-4, 10-3)
G - Pat Coleman, 6-2/195 Sr.  (6.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.2 apg)
G - Kyle Wuest, 6-1/175 Sr.  (15.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.2 apg)
G - Bryant Ackerman, 6-2/205 Sr.  (10.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.2 apg)
F - Erik Crittenden, 6-7/215 Sr.  (12.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg)
C - Will Nixon, 6-7/210 Sr.  (9.5 ppg, 7.2 rpg)


Pantagraph - http://www.pantagraph.com/sports/college/basketball/men/nelms-closing-iwu-career-with-flourish/article_f6feff2a-1aee-5422-ac33-558cd8e50b4d.html

Live Video/State - http://portal.stretchinternet.com/iwu/

WJBC Radio - http://portal.stretchinternet.com/wjbc/

[Titan Q]

[Titan Q]

Just looking at the 2nd week of Regional Rankings and I will repeat what I posted before: If you want to be ranked 1st or 2nd regionally and have an excellent chance either to host or play a weak team in Round 1, the formula is simple: Lose the fewest games. Just check the  8 Regional Rankings for the 1st two teams. In most cases, the #1 team has the fewest losses and the #2 team has the 2nd fewest losses. In the Central, St. Norbert has 2 losses and is #3. And tell me what St. Norbert has ever done in the D3 tournament. They got beat at home in the 1st round last year to Elmhurst, the third and last CCIW team to be selected. In 2014, St. Norbert came to IWU, won a 1st Round game and lost to IWU in the 2nd Round. My guess is that St. Norbert will play and lose in the 1st or 2nd round this year even though by Regional Rankings, they are one of the top 24 D3 teams in the country. And why are they ranked #3 in the Central? Because they play in the Midwest Conf and usually dominate it, with Benedictine spoiling their party in 2016. I'm pleased that the Central Committee placed NCC 4th ahead of EC even though the Jays had 2 fewer losses primarily and maybe solely due to the head to head results.

It's really hard to argue with how the Central Region committee has the teams right now, Lanny, when you consider winning percentage, strength of schedule, and results vs regionally ranked opponents.

1. Benedictine: 24-0 (1.000)/.525/4-0
2. Augustana: 23-1 (.958)/.546/3-1
3. St. Norbert: 20-2 (.909)/.537/2-1
4. North Central: 17-6 (.739)/.598/3-6
5. Elmhurst: 20-4 (.833)/.523/3-4
6. Chicago: 15-6 (.714)/.561/1-5
7. Aurora: 17-5 (.773)/.525/1-2
8. Carroll: 17-4 (.810)/.510/0-2

If North Central had beaten Chicago at home or won at Aurora or won at Alma or won at home vs Benedictine or played and beaten a D3 team instead of NAIA Robert Morris-Chicago (any of those), they'd probably be ranked ahead of St. Norbert.  But as it is, .909 vs .739 is just a huge gap...especially when St. Norbert's SOS and RRO are OK.  You can't give teams a complete free pass for losing games.

And as I posted the last time you said this, history of the regional rankings shows all kinds of situations where teams with lower winning percentages are ranked ahead of teams with higher winning percentages.

For example, last year's final regional rankings in the Central region - http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3.
1. Augustana: 21-4
2. UW-Whitewater: 21-2
3. UW-Stevens Point: 21-4
4. Washington U: 19-5
5. St. Norbert: 22-1
6. Illinois Wesleyan: 18-7
7. Elmhurst: 19-6
8. North Central: 16-7

(St. Norbert's SOS was .494, relative to Augie's .577, UWW's .549, UW-SP's .575, and Wash U's .563.)

Or the Northeast region:
1. Babson: 23-2
2. Trinity (CT): 19-4
3. Amherst: 19-6
4. Bates: 19-6
5. Eastern Conn St: 21-4
6. WPI: 21-4
7. Albertus Magnus: 24-1
8. Bowdoin: 18-7
9. Springfield: 18-7
10. Southern VT: 21-2
11. Wesleyan: 17-8

(SOS numbers - Albertus Magnus = .473, Southern VT = .478.)

You can go region by region, week by week (when the rankings start coming out), and see evidence of how significant strength of schedule is in the regional ranking process.  Same goes for the Pool C selection process...SOS is a huge factor.

And just look at all of the current regional rankings  - http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2016/02/17/second-ncaa-regional-ranking/. It's obvious teams are not lined up from fewest losses to most losses.

If the regional and national committees just wanted wins, the CCIW would have a lot less NCAA tournament appearances over the course of the last decade.

[mailsy]

SOS is important. Just ask Lancaster Bible in the East. They are undefeated and not even ranked regionally. If they don't win their conference tournament they may not even make the NCAA's.

[AndOne]

it warms the hearts of all North Central fans to know that, as they watch the IWU/Elmhurst game today, Wesleyan fans will be sending a portion of their love northward to the Cardinals as they venture into the Big City to do battle at North Park. i'm sure its been awhile since the Green hoped so much for a Cardinal victory.   

[AndOne]

BIG game for NCC (and IWU, and NPU) at NPU tonight.

NCC Keys to victory:

1. Transition and perimeter defense
2. Limit turnovers
3. Make their FTs

[Gregory Sager]

NPU key to victory:

1. Score more points than NCC

[iwumichigander]

NPU key to victory:

1. Score more points than NCC

NCC key to victory
1) Score 1 more point the NPU

[Gregory Sager]

"Score 1 more point the NPU"? What does that even mean?