MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[GoPerry]

Looking at Augustana's remaining schedule , I just do not see any result other than a first place finish.  If I am right, it is a race for 2-4 with NPU having a slight advantage.  But it is IMHO, an open race for 2-4.  It looks like another,groan, CCIW tournament in Rock Island.

I don't get that and I'm not sure how you are evaluating it that way vis a vis NPU.  Augie has already lost to them at home and will have to play them again on the road.  NPU owns the tie-breaker.  So in my mind, Augie and NPU are practically tied for first right now.  If both teams win out leading up to Feb 18, then whoever wins that game will take over first place in the conference(for tourney seeding) and will host provided they both win their last game.  What am I missing?

[AndOne]

And, while nobody is going to cry for the Cardinals, its unfortunate that the team has been unable to compete as they were constructed at the beginning of the season prior to the extended personnel losses they have sustained through both preventable and unpreventable circumstances.

Stuff happens. I'd venture that each program in this league has had a season like this, and for most, if not all of them, it's happened multiple times over the course of league history. I can cite you chapter and verse on seasons when NPU has simultaneously lost key players. NCC's not even the D3 team that's had it the worst this season; try trading places with an Alma fan, Mark.

Without Connor (and others), NCC has lost 5 games by a total of 30 points, or an average of 6 points a game, meaning they've hung pretty tough without a top tier player. I'd venture that with #32 (and others) in the lineup the Cardinals would currently be sitting at a minimum of 13-3, and quite possibly at 14-2.

North Central's done an admirable job of upholding the "next man up" principle, no doubt about it at all. The fact that NCC is even within a game of a playoff slot right now is testimony to that; the Cards could've folded and lost last night's game, which would've put them in the tough spot of sitting in seventh place, two games out of a playoff spot. But your assertion about where the Cards would be with Raridon, Fehrle, and Anderson bumps right into your previous 90% "on any given night" dictum.

A. I have no doubt that there are other teams that have suffered important losses this season, especially when you take the entire country under consideration. However, it would be hard to imagine any one individual who might have been lost to his team for any extended period this season being more important and a bigger loss to his team than Connor Raridon is to the Cardinals.
Besides that, this is the CCIW room, and that's where my concern lies. There is no doubt any CCIW team has sustained a bigger loss.

B. Especially considering some of the surprising results we've already seen in the conference this year, it does seem that the outcome of about 90% of the games would be in doubt. It's JMHO that with Raridon, NCC would have won at least 4 of the 5 games it has lost since his injury. If we were talking about NPU having lost Robinson or Henry and losing 5 games since that happened, I'd likewise think that they probably would have won at least 4 of the 5 with such a good player available. Same thing would apply to Augie with Sortillo, Johnston, or Orange, or IWU with Seibring or Rose.
We're talking about top playershere. Difference makers.

[Gregory Sager]

And, while nobody is going to cry for the Cardinals, its unfortunate that the team has been unable to compete as they were constructed at the beginning of the season prior to the extended personnel losses they have sustained through both preventable and unpreventable circumstances.

Stuff happens. I'd venture that each program in this league has had a season like this, and for most, if not all of them, it's happened multiple times over the course of league history. I can cite you chapter and verse on seasons when NPU has simultaneously lost key players. NCC's not even the D3 team that's had it the worst this season; try trading places with an Alma fan, Mark.

Without Connor (and others), NCC has lost 5 games by a total of 30 points, or an average of 6 points a game, meaning they've hung pretty tough without a top tier player. I'd venture that with #32 (and others) in the lineup the Cardinals would currently be sitting at a minimum of 13-3, and quite possibly at 14-2.

North Central's done an admirable job of upholding the "next man up" principle, no doubt about it at all. The fact that NCC is even within a game of a playoff slot right now is testimony to that; the Cards could've folded and lost last night's game, which would've put them in the tough spot of sitting in seventh place, two games out of a playoff spot. But your assertion about where the Cards would be with Raridon, Fehrle, and Anderson bumps right into your previous 90% "on any given night" dictum.

A. I have no doubt that there are other teams that have suffered important losses this season, especially when you take the entire country under consideration. However, it would be hard to imagine any one individual who might have been lost to his team for any extended period this season being more important and a bigger loss to his team than Connor Raridon is to the Cardinals.

Agreed. But basketball isn't a one-man game. As a team, I would argue that Alma has lost more than has North Central -- especially since it appears, through the veil of mystery that has been so skillfully weaved around Connor Raridon's last visit to the orthopedist , that both Raridon and Jagger Anderson are viable candidates to return to the floor this season. Doug Bradfield, Kevin Gamble, and Chase Fairchild? As sac said, their seasons are over for good ... and in the cases of Bradfield and Gamble, they were over before the season even started. None of those guys by themselves are better than Raridon, of course, who is more than likely one of the top two or three dozen players in all of D3. But together? That's another story.

Besides that, this is the CCIW room, and that's where my concern lies. There is no doubt any CCIW team has sustained a bigger loss.

I don't think that anybody's arguing that. Perhaps if IWU was to lose Trevor Seibring for a more extended period than he's expected to miss, the Titans fans in this room might put up a rebuttal. Then we'd get into a whole discussion about ability level and what value certain players bring to their respective teams. But it seems to me that that's going to be a moot point, because I think Seibring will be back quite shortly, and Raridon will in the end have missed much more time than will the senior center of the Titans.

B. Especially considering some of the surprising results we've already seen in the conference this year, it does seem that the outcome of about 90% of the games would be in doubt. It's JMHO that with Raridon, NCC would have won at least 4 of the 5 games it has lost since his injury. If we were talking about NPU having lost Robinson or Henry and losing 5 games since that happened, I'd likewise think that they probably would have won at least 4 of the 5 with such a good player available. Same thing would apply to Augie with Sortillo, Johnston, or Orange, or IWU with Seibring or Rose.
We're talking about top playershere. Difference makers.

I don't really have an argument against any of this, other than to remind you that we're talking about counterfactuals -- and counterfactuals by definition are unknowable due to all of the variables in play, since this isn't Star Trek and the CCIW scriptwriters aren't creating alternate universes for this league. (I like the one where an evil Nadelhoffer in a mustache and goatee commands the ruthless CCIW Empire. ) We just don't know what would've happened if everybody who started off the season had been around for every game. We can make reasonable guesses, but we can't really know for sure. That goes back to your 90% dictum.

[AppletonRocks]

All you old school CCIW types, don't go light on Carroll.  They are well coached and while you don't respect them, they don't care what you think.  Watch them be a top 4 CCIW team.   

[GoPerry]

North Central 86
Wheaton 82

Aston Francis  24 pts, 7 rebs, 6 stls, 9 turnovers
Jake Mlagan  12 pts, 5 rebs, 2 stls
Spencer Peterson, 13 pts, 5 rebs

Alex Sorenson, 23 pts, 15 rebs (9 off)
Aiden Chang, 19 pts
Matt Cappelletti, 13 pts, 13 rebs (5 off)
Tommy Koth, 12 pts, 8 assists

The Thunder had their chances to win, despite really atrocious rebounding(-14) including -10 on the offensive glass (and that seems low).  The only Wheaton player capable of checking 6'8" 240lb jr Alex Sorenson down low was 6'5" 230lb freshman Spencer Petersen, but giving up 3 inches was an awful lot to ask.  Both teams had golden opportunities to win in the 1st OT but freshman Jake Mlagan couldn't get the 2nd free throw tiebreaker to go with 8 secs left.  NCC then took it straight down the court but Jaquan Phipps missed a wide open layup with 1 second left.  The 2nd OT was NCC executing well and Wheaton not so much – 4 guys in white looking for Francis to do something resulting in missed shots and turnovers.

Aiden Chang is very solid.  He hit some huge baskets down the stretch, broke down the defense with some drives, and really played well in the OTs.  NCC played with more poise overall and more offensive weapons.  For Wheaton, Ricky Samuelson had a tough shooting night, 2/9, and if he's not hitting, then the offense really gets too Francis-centric.  Despite the missed free throw, freshman Mlagan continues to play well, rewarded with deserved minutes at crunch time.  Overall, consistent defense continues to be a challenge for the Thunder.

* It appeared that at least some of the "stand around" Wheaton offense, previously referenced by other posters, was by design. On several possessions, the NCC staff could be heard yelling "ISO" as the home team brought the ball up. This was a signal that the upcoming play call was one where Aston Francis would end up on one side of the floor with his teammates on the other side, and Francis would take a pass and try to create a 3 chance off the dribble. Yes, there were times when everyone was in the flow, but those occasions usually saw the Cardinals flying around and through the slower and less mobile Wheaties.

I'm not sure this is really by design by Mike Schauer, if so then rarely.  But it certainly ends up this way quite often.

* Jay Spencer looks like, especially if he can add at least a few ounces of muscle, he could develop into a nice player for WC. But for now, he needs to realize that, with last night's two, he has a grand total of six made threes in his college career and instead of acting like a goof when he makes one, get back and play some defense.
* 6'5" 230 pound WC freshman Spencer Peterson might want to think about looking for work within a mile or so of the basket rather than hanging out south of the 3 point line and going 4 for 12.

I'm not sure why you'd be down on 2 freshman trying to defend, or score against, a 1st team All American like Sorenson?   Sounds like Jay Spencer did something to tick you off(apparently)?  In a prior post, I also wrote that he had some real potential but needed another 25+ lbs minimum to play defense at the 5 spot.  This is why Peterson played so much, and Trevor Gunter sat, because at least he could match Sorenson strength wise despite giving up 3 inches in height.   With the exception of the rebounding, I thought they did a pretty good job overall although I'm also not a fan of your primary rebounders taking lots of treys(even though both are shooting a decent percentage 7-18 for 39% and 6-11 for 54% on a small sample).   

I just can't get over seeing Wheaton get outrun like that in the second overtime. No matter what talent level Wheaton has in any given season, you just don't see the Sonic Atmospheric Disturbance lose their legs like that before their opponent does. I agree with GoPerry, though, that the second overtime consisted of a lot of the four-man stand-around offense for Wheaton. The ongoing risk of any team that has a high-volume shooter who has no conscience from anywhere within 30 feet of the basket is that he'll turn his teammates into spectators -- even though Francis is actually a pretty good assists guy (third in the league in assists in CCIW play, tied for fourth in the league in overall play).

Yes, there were a few plays in the 2nd OT where Francis slipped/fell on his drive.  Francis, Luke Peters and Rick Samuelson all played pretty heavy minutes so fatigue might have played some role.  But when NCC went out to the 5 pt lead barely 90 secs into it, some air seemed to come out of the team and pre-mature desperation started to kick in.  The fact that they missed a golden opportunity to close it out in the 1st OT likely contributed.

[4samuy]

Let's put all of the second round-robin cards upon the table, then, just to see if Augie really is a lead-pipe cinch to win the CCIW title.

First of all, here's the current standings:

team	CCIW overall	CCIW home	CCIW road
Augustana	6-1	3-1	3-0
North Park	6-2	2-2	4-0
Carroll	4-3	2-1	2-2
Illinois Wesleyan	4-3	3-1	1-2
Carthage	4-3	3-1	1-2
North Central	3-4	1-3	2-1
Wheaton	3-4	1-3	2-1
Millikin	1-6	1-2	0-4
Elmhurst	1-6	0-4	1-2

Saturday's games that will conclude the first round-robin:

Illinois Wesleyan @ Carroll (4 pm)
North Central @ Elmhurst (4 pm)
Augustana @ Millikin (7 pm)
Carthage @ Wheaton (7 pm)

...and here's the second round-robin:

Augustana	vs. EC	@ CC	@ WC	vs. MU	vs. NCC	@ CU	bye	@ NPU	@ IWU
North Park	vs. IWU	@ ECC	bye	vs. NCC	@ CC	@ WC	@ CU	vs. AC	vs. MU
Carroll	vs. CC	@ MU	@ NCC	@ IWU	bye	vs. AC	vs. NPU	vs. WC	@ EC
Illinois Wesleyan	@ NPU	bye	@ MU	vs. CU	vs. EC	@ CC	@ WC	vs. NCC	vs.AC
Carthage	@ CU	vs. AC	@ EC	bye	vs. NPU	vs. IWU	vs. NCC	@ MU	vs. WC
North Central	vs. MU	vs. WC	vs. CU	@ NPU	@ AC	vs. EC	@ CC	@ IWU	bye
Wheaton	bye	@ NCC	vs. AC	vs. EC	@ MU	vs. NPU	vs. IWU	@ CU	@ CC
Millikin	@ NCC	vs. CU	vs. IWU	@ AC	vs. WC	bye	@ EC	vs. CC	@ NPU
Elmhurst	@ AC	vs. NPU	vs. CC	@ WC	@ IWU	@ NCC	vs. MU	bye	vs. CU

Looks to me that, if Augie's gonna clinch home court for the tourney, it'd better do so before it reaches the bye. Traveling to North Park and Illinois Wesleyan to close out the regular season is a tough way to have to clinch something, especially since NPU already has won at Augie.

That said, based on what I've seen so far, I'd pick Augie to win if I had to place a bet.

Well, of course. Your 90% dictum notwithstanding, who among us who isn't a member of the Millikin team or coaching staff really believes that Augustana is going to lose on Saturday night? There's not much doubt that the Rock Islanders are going to finish the first round-robin in sole possession of first place, with only one team within a game of them. That's a fantastic position in which to find yourself halfway thru the slate.

Also, keep in mind that Augustana is the only team in the top seven, as of today, that has to play six of their last nine on the road.

[4samuy]

Current Massey:

    5. Augustana
  19. Illinois Wesleyan
  23. Carthage
  29. North Park
  69. North Central
103. Wheaton
179. Elmhurst
287. Millikin

Massey sez:

North Park 79 @ Millikin 68 (NPU 85%, MU 15%)
@ Wheaton 74, North Central 72 (WC 55%, NCC 45%)
@ Carthage 76, Carroll 67 (CC 79%, CU 21%)
Augustana 82, @ Elmhurst 71 (AC 85%, EC 15%)

Sorry for posting this on our CCIW board but it does put some perspective on the central region as it relates to Massey (whatever that's worth).  I had mentioned in a previous post that because of the WIACs out of conference record and strength of schedule,  the top teams in the conference and the conference as a whole would continue rise per Massey and that is what's happening.  They currently have the #1 team in River Falls and 4 of the top 18.  I know it's only Massey, which has no relation to D3.com or the NCAA, but it does emphasize the point of strong non conference schedules and the ability to win those games as you get into conference play. Then you have to take care of business in your conference.

[gordonmann]

Around the Central this week features Augustana men. Here's the link if you haven't seen the column yet:

http://www.d3hoops.com/columns/around-the-region/central/2016-17/augustana-still-on-top

[Gregory Sager]

Nice article, Gordon, except that the best record ever by a CCIW team belongs to the 1956-57 Wheaton team that won the NCAA College Division national championship with a 28-1 (.966) record. Last year's Augie team, which finished 29-2 (.935), tied with the 1972-73 Augustana team (finished third in the NAIA national tourney), the 1977-78 North Park team (D3 national champions), and the 1996-97 Illinois Wesleyan team (D3 national champions), all of which also went 29-2, for the second-best record ever by a CCIW team.

[Greek Tragedy]

Current Massey:

    5. Augustana
  19. Illinois Wesleyan
  23. Carthage
  29. North Park
  69. North Central
103. Wheaton
179. Elmhurst
287. Millikin

Massey sez:

North Park 79 @ Millikin 68 (NPU 85%, MU 15%)
@ Wheaton 74, North Central 72 (WC 55%, NCC 45%)
@ Carthage 76, Carroll 67 (CC 79%, CU 21%)
Augustana 82, @ Elmhurst 71 (AC 85%, EC 15%)

Sorry for posting this on our CCIW board but it does put some perspective on the central region as it relates to Massey (whatever that's worth).  I had mentioned in a previous post that because of the WIACs out of conference record and strength of schedule,  the top teams in the conference and the conference as a whole would continue rise per Massey and that is what's happening.  They currently have the #1 team in River Falls and 4 of the top 18.  I know it's only Massey, which has no relation to D3.com or the NCAA, but it does emphasize the point of strong non conference schedules and the ability to win those games as you get into conference play. Then you have to take care of business in your conference.

Can't  you say the same for the CCIW and the top four of Augie, NPU Carthage and IWU, who all had very good NC records? Their massey rankings should improve as well, shouldn't they? Or are you saying, from top to bottom, the WIAC was better overall, nonconference record-wise, so even their bottom half should improve the top half's massey?

[4samuy]

You are right on the money. Augustana dropped a few spots after a convincing win over Elmhurst last night and IMHO it was due to the terrible strength of schedule and record of Elmhurst.

[AndOne]

GoPerry--

I'm not down on Spencer or Peterson.
I just think Spencer needs to remember that there is more to the game than grandiose celebratory displays after making a three. And that perhaps he'd be more valuable to his team if he'd first get back on defense after sinking a three, and save the celebrating until later. That way he might actually be able to celebrate a victory instead of solely a couple of rather meaningless threes. Call it another stop on the freshman learning curve.
Same goes for Peterson. Doesn't it make sense that at 6-5 and 230 he would be more effective under the basket than hanging out beyond the three point line and lobbing up bricks that have a lot less chance of finding the mark than a layup or 5-6 footer would have? Especially considering that neither interior offense nor defense is exactly a Wheaton strength.

4samuy--

Not withstanding Augie's finishing schedule, I can only go on what I've seen so far in saying that if I had to place a bet on the ultimate conference winner, I'd have to place my money on Augie. They just seem to have the lineup that features the most quality depth among the current top 4 teams. But yes, there is still a long way to go and Augie is certainly not a prohibitive favorite.

[AndOne]

With the two overtimes providing an extra 10 minutes of playing time, last night's 57 rebounds in the win at Wheaton set an all-time single game school record for the Cardinals.

[Gregory Sager]

You are right on the money. Augustana dropped a few spots after a convincing win over Elmhurst last night and IMHO it was due to the terrible strength of schedule and record of Elmhurst.

Actually, Augustana beat the Massey spread, so I don't think that that's why Augie fell. Augie was an 11-point Massey favorite, and Grey's boys won by 16.

I think it was more a matter of what the other teams around Augustana in the Massey Ratings did than what Augie did, and/or it was about what Augustana's past foes did.

[sac]

As of right now, massey hasn't been updated with all of Wednesday's scores yet including Augustana.