MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[4samuy]

Three really tough close losses in a row, and this month is beginning to give me an ulcer. And it's not going to get any easier on Wednesday night in Van Male, either, especially since the Pioneers still have a glimmer of playoff hopes themselves.
[/quote]

For sure.  2-7 all have playoff hopes, and I'm pretty sure they all control their own destiny (could be wrong on that cause I havent looked at each teams match ups the rest of the way).  But the way the conference has shaped up the last week or so, I can't but think that Augustana is relieved to have a breather and watch the rest of the conference from afar on Wednesday.

[Mr. Ypsi]

New poll is out - rough week for conference pride.  Augie fell from 20 to 23; NPU didn't just fall out of the top 25, they received zero votes.  The only positive note was (after three weeks of zero votes) IWU got a whopping 2 points.

I don't know for sure if the conference is actually down, or just 'cannibalizing' itself even more than usual - but the voters sure seem to think we're way down.

[GoPerry]

I know you gave some other praise of Francis, (and Peters and Samuelson) which is why the reference seemed incongruent to me. But you say you meant it as a compliment.  So ok.   

Context matters. Why would I praise Francis's ability throughout the post and then counteract it by intending "white Globetrotter" to be read as an insult?

Yes, context matters.  That's exactly why the reference seemed backhanded to me.  I'm not reading it the way you say you intended. That's ok. We can drop it.

GoPerry, while today's Globetrotters are probably not good enough to play in the NBA (hard to believe they would spurn the $millions in today's NBA ), in Meadowlark's day he probably earned MORE with the Globetrotters than he could have in pro basketball (and probably had far more fun doing it! )  Had he chosen to go that route, I have zero doubt he would be in the NBA HoF.  To be compared to Meadowlark Lemon is a HUGE honor (and probably a greater one than ANY D3 player ever has truly deserved).

Yes- I would respectfully have to call that a bit of an over-reach.  A player today being compared to Stephen Curry for example - an awesome player known for scoring and hitting shots in the heat of tough competition - that could be a "HUGE" honor.  "The Clown Prince of Basketball", as good as he was and what he is famous for?  Not really an honor in that context.

I already said that I'm aware of how good the Trotters were back then.   And I'm well aware of Wilt and the Hawk ( I read "Foul" when I was in the 9th grade).  So you've missed my point entirely.  That's ok - moving on.

[4samuy]

New poll is out - rough week for conference pride.  Augie fell from 20 to 23; NPU didn't just fall out of the top 25, they received zero votes.  The only positive note was (after three weeks of zero votes) IWU got a whopping 2 points.

I don't know for sure if the conference is actually down, or just 'cannibalizing' itself even more than usual - but the voters sure seem to think we're way down.

The voters have thought the conference has been down all year, which is unfortunate.  The NESCAC has four teams currently in the D3 top 25. The only head to head match up between the CCIW and NESCAC this year was Illinois Wesleyan vs Middlebury (who is currently leading the conference and ranked #10 in the D3 the poll) a game in which IWU lost on a last second shot.  The games shows as an IWU home game, but was actually played in Staten Island on a neutral floor.  Massey has CCIW as #2 in overall strength of schedule behind the WIAC.  Other than Middlebury,  the overall records of the top teams in each conference are very similar. Also pretty similar to the WIAC. Sometimes you think because a young team, who lost six seniors and went to the national finals and elite eight the last two years and is leading the conference this year MUST mean the conference is down. I'm not sure I agree.

[Gregory Sager]

I don't know for sure if the conference is actually down, or just 'cannibalizing' itself even more than usual - but the voters sure seem to think we're way down.

It's both. The non-con record, although still good by general D3 standards, is well below par for the CCIW, so the league as a whole is down a bit. And nobody can deny that the league is cannibalizing itself. Again, keep in mind that the low-water mark for a CCIW champion during the 25-year period in which this was previously a nine-team circuit was Millikin's 12-4 back in 1982-83. It's quite possible that 4samuy's prediction that 12-4 wins the league this season will come true. Heck, it's even possible that we'll have an 11-5 tie at the top. Furthermore, there's only been one occasion in which the second-place team finished as low as 10-6 (1972-73, when three teams finished 10-6 behind undefeated Augustana); there's a distinct possibility that 10-6 will garner your team a share of second place this year. The league is really flattened out among the top seven teams, and, without looking at all of the other leagues in D3, I would wager that the CCIW has been cannibalizing itself more than most.

[4samuy]

Greg,

All good points.  And I understand that there are three games to go and a lot can still happen, but using the eye test, if the CCIW is less than a two bid league, as some have intimated, would be criminal IMHO.

[Gregory Sager]

I'm certainly sympathetic, 4samuy, but the D3 championship committee operates within pretty rigid protocols concerning the criteria that are used to determine at-large berths in the tourney, so it's not as though CCIW teams will be granted any extra leeway because of the historical excellence of the league.

[Greek Tragedy]

New poll is out - rough week for conference pride.  Augie fell from 20 to 23; NPU didn't just fall out of the top 25, they received zero votes.  The only positive note was (after three weeks of zero votes) IWU got a whopping 2 points.

I don't know for sure if the conference is actually down, or just 'cannibalizing' itself even more than usual - but the voters sure seem to think we're way down.

The voters have thought the conference has been down all year, which is unfortunate.  The NESCAC has four teams currently in the D3 top 25. The only head to head match up between the CCIW and NESCAC this year was Illinois Wesleyan vs Middlebury (who is currently leading the conference and ranked #10 in the D3 the poll) a game in which IWU lost on a last second shot.  The games shows as an IWU home game, but was actually played in Staten Island on a neutral floor.  Massey has CCIW as #2 in overall strength of schedule behind the WIAC.  Other than Middlebury,  the overall records of the top teams in each conference are very similar. Also pretty similar to the WIAC. Sometimes you think because a young team, who lost six seniors and went to the national finals and elite eight the last two years and is leading the conference this year MUST mean the conference is down. I'm not sure I agree.

With the bolded said, we don't have to remind each other that the NESCAC only plays each other once in conference. I mean, would Amherst be ranked if they had 2-3 more losses in a double round robin, maybe not even a full double round robin. Instead of 7-3, maybe they would be 11-5 and 15-8 overall instead of 17-6. Maybe Wesleyan would be 12-8 in conference instead of 6-4, then a mere 15-9 overall.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

New poll is out - rough week for conference pride.  Augie fell from 20 to 23; NPU didn't just fall out of the top 25, they received zero votes.  The only positive note was (after three weeks of zero votes) IWU got a whopping 2 points.

I don't know for sure if the conference is actually down, or just 'cannibalizing' itself even more than usual - but the voters sure seem to think we're way down.

The voters have thought the conference has been down all year, which is unfortunate.  The NESCAC has four teams currently in the D3 top 25. The only head to head match up between the CCIW and NESCAC this year was Illinois Wesleyan vs Middlebury (who is currently leading the conference and ranked #10 in the D3 the poll) a game in which IWU lost on a last second shot.  The games shows as an IWU home game, but was actually played in Staten Island on a neutral floor.  Massey has CCIW as #2 in overall strength of schedule behind the WIAC.  Other than Middlebury,  the overall records of the top teams in each conference are very similar. Also pretty similar to the WIAC. Sometimes you think because a young team, who lost six seniors and went to the national finals and elite eight the last two years and is leading the conference this year MUST mean the conference is down. I'm not sure I agree.

With the bolded said, we don't have to remind each other that the NESCAC only plays each other once in conference. I mean, would Amherst be ranked if they had 2-3 more losses in a double round robin, maybe not even a full double round robin. Instead of 7-3, maybe they would be 11-5 and 15-8 overall instead of 17-6. Maybe Wesleyan would be 12-8 in conference instead of 6-4, then a mere 15-9 overall.

Amherst is a bad example because they do play NESCAC opponents in the non-conference (and generally competitive ones).  Tufts doesn't generally do that and at 19-5 right now, they almost certainly would be at least 17-7, making them more tenuous.  This year, though, it's the out of this world SOS that is making a team like Williams more of a Pool C contender than normal.  I think it still comes down to regional competition - the CCIW in a year where the league is even 95% of normal will take a much bigger W% hit than a similar year for the NESCAC because the CCIW non-league competition is usually performing at a higher level.

As for voting, a league ends up getting short shrift if it splits - whereby 4 or 5 teams develop really good records and others have really poor records - losses to those "bottom" teams have a bigger effect.  In a year like this where 7 of the NESCAC teams are considered competitive, losses to teams down the standings will look better by comparison.

Thank God we have an actual tournament to settle things on the floor.

[kiko]

Thank God we have an actual tournament to settle things on the floor.

This is rehashing a very old argument, but, ew, no.

We had three months to settle things on the floor.  The tournament is an unnecessary bolt-on.  (And without it, we might not need to play conference games in what feels like September...)

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Thank God we have an actual tournament to settle things on the floor.

This is rehashing a very old argument, but, ew, no.

We had three months to settle things on the floor.  The tournament is an unnecessary bolt-on.  (And without it, we might not need to play conference games in what feels like September...)

I meant the national tournament - it's really the only way to truly compare teams across regions.

[middhoops]

The CCIW is way better than a one bid conference. 
People always seem to think they like parity, until they see the side effects.
Only 6 of the 11 teams in the NESCAC play each other twice (due to historic mini-leagues), but my team benefits from only playing league members once.  Also had some big OOC wins.
Seems to me that losing 7-8 games in the CCIW and WIAC is like losing 3-4 in most lesser leagues.

[Gregory Sager]

It's probably best not to get too worked up right now over whether or not the CCIW will get a Pool C berth. While it's useful to keep an eye on the primary-criteria data as it keeps changing, given everything that's going to transpire over the next week and a half it seems a little like putting the cart before the horse.

[augie_superfan]

Just some fun with numbers (assuming 50% chance of winning each remaining game)

Hosting chances
Augie - 88.7%  (75% by winning at least 1 game, 12.3% by losing both but no one getting to 11 wins, plus some small tiebreakers)
North Park - 5.7%
IWU - 4.7%
Carthage - 1%

Average # of wins for each place in conference
1st - 12
2nd - 10.3
3rd - 9.8
4th - 8.9
5th - 8.4

Odds of 4th place having "x" amount of wins
Wins    % of time      chances there would be a tie for 4th?
  8          0.2%          100%  (4-way tie for 4th-7th place)
  9         72.7%         90.1%
10        26.9%          8.7%
11         0.2%           0%    (4-way tie for 1st-4th place)

I don't think anyone can clinch or be eliminated from the tournament tomorrow night but there are too many multiple team tiebreakers to consider at this point, we will see after Wednesday's results and things might be a bit more clear

[iwumichigander]

Way too early to get worked up.  We have to see how badly we beat each other up and which team wins the AQ - which I think may really be a toss up at this point.  Also, this season we have a lot of teams beating each other up in other conferences/regions.  We are going to see 7 loss teams make the NCAA tourney maybe even an 8 loss team or two which does not occur often.

As for the New England teams including the NESAC it is what it is.  I lived in New England for several years.  The travel problems for New England teams are much more difficult than most conferences.  And the proliferation of colleges and universities makes attracting talent a little harder.  And, I would compare Anherst and Williams more along the lines of UAA schools, or in the CCIW - Wheaton as far as recruiting and attracting out of state talent.