MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Greek Tragedy]

Thanks, Usee. That'll be good to pour over.  When I look at the selection criteria, it's still not helping me see Augie where it is as compared to North Park.  Anyone else with input?

For this poll, Augie had a .042 advantage in Win %, everything else looks equal or nearly equal.  Augie doesn't really have any "bad" losses, NP has that loss at Manchester (9-16) that can't be helping.

So is overall record weighted more heavily, because I see overall record being a one game advantage in Augie's favor and RRO being a two game advantage in NPU's favor, along with a sliiiight SOS advantage in North Park's favor.

No doubt that Manchester loss is a bad one.

I believe overall record is in the secondary criteria category that includes non-D3 opponents.

[Gregory Sager]

Thanks, Usee. That'll be good to pour over.  When I look at the selection criteria, it's still not helping me see Augie where it is as compared to North Park.  Anyone else with input?

For this poll, Augie had a .042 advantage in Win %, everything else looks equal or nearly equal.  Augie doesn't really have any "bad" losses, NP has that loss at Manchester (9-16) that can't be helping.

Bad losses -- or good losses, for that matter -- are not a criterion. NPU doesn't get any extra penalties for that loss besides the customary hit to winning percentage and SoS.

Head-to-head is not "nearly equal", either. NPU's sweep of Augie should've carried some weight going into that ranking.

Thanks, Usee. That'll be good to pour over.  When I look at the selection criteria, it's still not helping me see Augie where it is as compared to North Park.  Anyone else with input?

For this poll, Augie had a .042 advantage in Win %, everything else looks equal or nearly equal.  Augie doesn't really have any "bad" losses, NP has that loss at Manchester (9-16) that can't be helping.

So is overall record weighted more heavily, because I see overall record being a one game advantage in Augie's favor and RRO being a two game advantage in NPU's favor, along with a sliiiight SOS advantage in North Park's favor.

It's actually "winning percentage versus D3 opponents", not overall record. It's a potentially significant difference. Augie had a .750 to .708 advantage in that category through Sunday. Now, of course, it's all tied up at .720 apiece. Record versus head-to-head opponents also favored Augie as of Sunday (it's the same 18-6 to 17-7 deal as the CCIW standings, since Augie and NPU did not have any common non-conference opponents), and, again, they're now dead even at 18-7 apiece. The "winning percentage versus D3 opponents" criterion is one place where Carthage currently lags behind Augie and NPU, because that wasted game against RMU-Peoria means that the Red Men only have a .708 winning percentage as of today.

No happy about the NPU matchup this friday. It's hard to beat a team 3 times in one season....it's the one team I didn't want to face.

I can't stand that cliché. It has no basis in fact whatsoever. Do you really mean to tell me that you think NPU would have an uphill battle if it faced Millikin or Elmhurst on Friday, Roberto?

Now, I sometimes see the cliché expressed as "it's hard to beat a good team three times in one season," which makes a bit more sense. But it's still not a substantive statement. If one team is good and the other team is outstanding, it may not nearly be as hard for the outstanding team to beat the good team three times. Or one good team may simply have matchup advantages over the other good team; that frequently determines outcomes when it comes to two good teams squaring off.

In this particular instance, I'm not wary of the Park playing Augustana a third time just because NPU has already beaten the Doggies twice. On the contrary, that gives me added confidence that they can do it a third time. What concerns me is that the outcome of the second game was decided in overtime; i.e., the game was a tossup on NPU's floor after forty minutes, and it was only played six days before they meet again, so the current conditions of the two teams should be roughly the same. In other words, the latest outcome -- and the fact that Augie is demonstrably a good team with talented players and a coach who knows how to win -- is what makes me nervous, not some silly cliché that is proven false on a regular basis.

[markerickson]

Only the CCIW conference tourney champion will get the opportunity to play another game, IMHO.

[iwu70]

Congrats to the three coaches.  All deserving in their own ways.  Congrats to Robinson on MOP.  Very deserved.

Warm congrats to Brady Rose and Trevor Seibring of my TITANS for their All-Conference seasons.  Great job. 


Should be a very interesting weekend.  Love all the speculation and surmising about who might or might not get a Pool C bid now.  I'd rely on Q's numbers and judgement.  He's been pretty much on target over the years. 

IWU'70

[Mr. Ypsi]

Only the CCIW conference tourney champion will get the opportunity to play another game, IMHO.

Probably true, but SoS and vRROs might give someone an outside chance. 

[iwumichigander]

Only the CCIW conference tourney champion will get the opportunity to play another game, IMHO.

Probably true, but SoS and vRROs might give someone an outside chance.

Two - which two is the bigger question

[Titan Q]

Here is how I see Pool C as of Wednesday evening - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1792893#msg1792893.

[kiko]

One thing that did pan out pretty much as theorized in the preseason was Carroll finding the sledding to be much tougher in the CCIW than in the MWC. After finishing 15-3 (2nd) in the Midwest, and 20-5 overall last year, and returning the majority of it's team, CU ended it's first season in the CCIW at 13-12 overall, and 8-8 in the conference. This mark was good for only a sixth place tie in the 9 team conference.

Quick question regarding Carroll with regular season in the books.  Is everyone in agreement more or less that Carroll was a neutral to good addition as far as basketball is concerned?  That is, no downside?

We had to play three conference games in December because of the Pios.  From a basketball standpoint, bad.

[iwumichigander]

One thing that did pan out pretty much as theorized in the preseason was Carroll finding the sledding to be much tougher in the CCIW than in the MWC. After finishing 15-3 (2nd) in the Midwest, and 20-5 overall last year, and returning the majority of it's team, CU ended it's first season in the CCIW at 13-12 overall, and 8-8 in the conference. This mark was good for only a sixth place tie in the 9 team conference.

Quick question regarding Carroll with regular season in the books.  Is everyone in agreement more or less that Carroll was a neutral to good addition as far as basketball is concerned?  That is, no downside?

We had to play three conference games in December because of the Pios.  From a basketball standpoint, bad.

in terms of competition good addition, I think.  The question is, like Carthage, can they compete for recruits against the state WIAC schools.  In terms of scheduling and logistics, not good - you noted December conference games, a long ride to Carrolland back, and on the plus side a bye built into schedule for every team which can help with injuries.
I think the larger question asking is will somebody drop out and change conferences or will a tenth team be added?

[lmitzel]

One thing that did pan out pretty much as theorized in the preseason was Carroll finding the sledding to be much tougher in the CCIW than in the MWC. After finishing 15-3 (2nd) in the Midwest, and 20-5 overall last year, and returning the majority of it's team, CU ended it's first season in the CCIW at 13-12 overall, and 8-8 in the conference. This mark was good for only a sixth place tie in the 9 team conference.

Quick question regarding Carroll with regular season in the books.  Is everyone in agreement more or less that Carroll was a neutral to good addition as far as basketball is concerned?  That is, no downside?

We had to play three conference games in December because of the Pios.  From a basketball standpoint, bad.

in terms of competition good addition, I think.  The question is, like Carthage, can they compete for recruits against the state WIAC schools.  In terms of scheduling and logistics, not good - you noted December conference games, a long ride to Carrolland back, and on the plus side a bye built into schedule for every team which can help with injuries.
I think the larger question asking is will somebody drop out and change conferences or will a tenth team be added?

I doubt we see any changes. The CCIW was a nine-school league for a long time; try adding in a tenth school and see how big a cluster that makes basketball scheduling, among other sports. I don't see anyone leaving either. We had talked about it a few months back and the topic of Millikin leaving came up, just because they make the most sense of the nine geographically, but why would they leave? Their best alternative is the SLIAC, which, with all due respect to the SLIAC, is not the CCIW.

[iwumichigander]

One thing that did pan out pretty much as theorized in the preseason was Carroll finding the sledding to be much tougher in the CCIW than in the MWC. After finishing 15-3 (2nd) in the Midwest, and 20-5 overall last year, and returning the majority of it's team, CU ended it's first season in the CCIW at 13-12 overall, and 8-8 in the conference. This mark was good for only a sixth place tie in the 9 team conference.

Quick question regarding Carroll with regular season in the books.  Is everyone in agreement more or less that Carroll was a neutral to good addition as far as basketball is concerned?  That is, no downside?

We had to play three conference games in December because of the Pios.  From a basketball standpoint, bad.

in terms of competition good addition, I think.  The question is, like Carthage, can they compete for recruits against the state WIAC schools.  In terms of scheduling and logistics, not good - you noted December conference games, a long ride to Carrolland back, and on the plus side a bye built into schedule for every team which can help with injuries.
I think the larger question asking is will somebody drop out and change conferences or will a tenth team be added?

I doubt we see any changes. The CCIW was a nine-school league for a long time; try adding in a tenth school and see how big a cluster that makes basketball scheduling, among other sports. I don't see anyone leaving either. We had talked about it a few months back and the topic of Millikin leaving came up, just because they make the most sense of the nine geographically, but why would they leave? Their best alternative is the SLIAC, which, with all due respect to the SLIAC, is not the CCIW.

I did not mean to imply a pending change.  Nor do I really see any change soon across the conference.  I do see maybe a little more things like a Rose Hulman participating in swimming where maybe not all CCIW schools offer a sport.  From a basketball perspective. It is challenging enough adding Carroll. 

[lmitzel]

One thing that did pan out pretty much as theorized in the preseason was Carroll finding the sledding to be much tougher in the CCIW than in the MWC. After finishing 15-3 (2nd) in the Midwest, and 20-5 overall last year, and returning the majority of it's team, CU ended it's first season in the CCIW at 13-12 overall, and 8-8 in the conference. This mark was good for only a sixth place tie in the 9 team conference.

Quick question regarding Carroll with regular season in the books.  Is everyone in agreement more or less that Carroll was a neutral to good addition as far as basketball is concerned?  That is, no downside?

We had to play three conference games in December because of the Pios.  From a basketball standpoint, bad.

in terms of competition good addition, I think.  The question is, like Carthage, can they compete for recruits against the state WIAC schools.  In terms of scheduling and logistics, not good - you noted December conference games, a long ride to Carrolland back, and on the plus side a bye built into schedule for every team which can help with injuries.
I think the larger question asking is will somebody drop out and change conferences or will a tenth team be added?

I doubt we see any changes. The CCIW was a nine-school league for a long time; try adding in a tenth school and see how big a cluster that makes basketball scheduling, among other sports. I don't see anyone leaving either. We had talked about it a few months back and the topic of Millikin leaving came up, just because they make the most sense of the nine geographically, but why would they leave? Their best alternative is the SLIAC, which, with all due respect to the SLIAC, is not the CCIW.

I did not mean to imply a pending change.  Nor do I really see any change soon across the conference.  I do see maybe a little more things like a Rose Hulman participating in swimming where maybe not all CCIW schools offer a sport.  From a basketball perspective. It is challenging enough adding Carroll.

And I didn't mean to imply that you did. I was just highlighting the difficulty of making any changes either way. We'll probably need a couple years, get settled into the new routine, and then somebody will leave again because that's how Murphy's Law tends to work.

[Gregory Sager]

I don't foresee anybody dropping out. There was that rumor floated a half-decade ago during Harold Jeffcoat's brief tenure as Millikin's president that he might take the school out of the NCAA and into the NAIA (and, thus, out of the CCIW), but I don't know how much truth there was behind that rumor. Somebody may simply have looked at Jeffcoat's resume as a former coach and administrator at NAIA schools and made some assumptions. But he left Millikin in 2013 and nobody's furthered that rumor ever since then.

I also haven't heard any rumors about the CCIW adding a tenth school as a full member. The various presidents of the eight schools likewise insisted that they weren't looking for a ninth member when the Carroll announcement came like a bolt out of the blue three years ago, but I have a feeling that kiko's surmise about the presidents feeling that they had to jump on the availability of a compatible institution while it was on the market for a new league may be correct. If another ideal member were to suddenly become available -- and, as I've said before, the only school that I suspect really fits perfectly into that sweet spot for the nine CCIW presidents is Lake Forest -- then my guess is that the CCIW might add a tenth. I'd bet all the corn in Manito that the CCIW would readily embrace Lake Forest if the LFC administration indicated that it wanted to follow Carroll back into the fold (LFC left the CCIW after the 1962-63 school year), but I've never heard anything about LFC being interested in leaving the MWC.

But the philosophy by which the league operates right now isn't to look for new full members; rather, it's to add associate members as needed for various sports, both to ease scheduling concerns (Wash U in football) and to flesh out the league so that it has seven members (and, thus, D3 championship tournaments/meets access) in various sports in which full members don't field teams (Concordia WI, Lakeland, and MSOE in wrestling; Rose-Hulman in men's and women's swimming; and Dubuque in men's and women's lacrosse). Since basically every multi-sport league in American collegiate athletics already sponsors men's and women's basketball, it seems highly unlikely that the CCIW would add an associate member to balance out the sked for men's and women's basketball the way that Wash U will balance it out for football. The logistics are certainly workable under the new scheduling format for this league, even though plenty of people aren't happy with the return of December CCIW basketball after a quarter-century of only playing league games after New Year's Day.

[AndOne]

I personally would love to see Millikin leave (most likely for the SLIAC) if for no other reason than its the longest trip for most of the other CCIW schools. The downside in their leaving is that 2 probable victories would disappear from most teams schedules. I also think such a move would benefit Millikin in that they would certainly score more wins in another conference (again most likely the SLIAC) than in the CCIW. Also, I don't think they are getting many Chicago area recruits so maybe their luck would be better going against schools from another conference/area.
* However, as has been covered here previously, MU is a long established CCIW member with deep ties to the conference. And, while they have not had much success lately in men's basketball, I think they have some decent teams in other sports. In summary, the odds of MU leaving in the foreseeable future are slim and none.

On the subject of possibly adding another school to bring the total to an even 10, Benedictine would, at least up to the recent talk of the possibility of their going D2, love to join the CCIW. in fact, I was told this by, and had short discussions with, a couple of different BU employees as recently as early in the current season. Admittedly, their focus may now be focused in another (D2 ?) direction.
Also, even if the desire to join the CCIW on BU's part is still there, I believe this move would be opposed by some of the current member schools, chief among them NCC and Wheaton, so this possibility also seems remote.

In summary, it would appear that things are going to stay as they currently are for quite some time. The only exception(s) being the possible addition of associate member schools in some of the more "minor" sports which some CCIW schools have recently added or are considering adding relatively soon.

[AndOne]

...but if I'm in that room and they are on the table for discussion, that's the first thing I'm bringing up.  IWU or any other team that didn't finish in the top 4 in their conference.

But conference tournament status and conference placement is not part of the criteria at all - http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2017DIIIMBB_PreChamp_DIII_M_Basketball_20161024.pdf.  It is WP, SOS, RRO, and a few other things (like head-to-head, common opponents, etc).  It is important to reference the actual criteria in these discussions.

And to be technical, IWU did finish in the top 4, in a 9-7 4th place tie with North Central...but lost a tie-breaker. 

Also keep in mind, UW-Oshkosh is ranked right now with a .640 WP - IWU is at .680 after last night.  It's clear SOS and RRO are very important.

Again, to be clear, I think IWU is an extreme longshot...but that door is not closed.

Yes, technical it is. And, technically speaking of course, didn't they actually lose two tie-breakers? 

So, are the Green Weenies continuing to practice in order to maintain the sharp edge they displayed in eviscerating Augie on Tuesday night. or have operations been temporarily suspended pending receipt of an official invitation to the Big Dance?