MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Titan Q]

I do. You measure the closeness of a game by how it plays out at the end. Otherwise, the narrow interval is always qualified: "It was a close game until Team X ran off a 10-0 run midway through the second half ..." or "It was a close game until So-And-So got going, and that's when Team Y pulled away." When a game is described as "close" in an unqualified manner, it always refers to where the score is towards the end of the game. Not necessarily the very end -- hence, the term "not as close as the final score makes it appear," which connotes a game whose final spread grew somewhat in the final minute or two due to the trailing team being forced to foul and the leading team making its free throws. That's a scenario which implies closeness because the trailing team wouldn't be playing quick-foul ball in the first place if it wasn't close. But, that aside, a game that had a ten-point margin with 1:35 left that ends up being winnable for the trailing team at the end of the game is pretty universally considered to be closer than a game that had a two-point margin with five minutes left that the leading team ends up winning by 14 after going on a 12-0 run over those final five minutes.

Heck, the Augie lead was already in double digits going into the final two minutes last night.

OK, but I didn't feel like it was a real close game.

[Augie6]

This is the same NPU team that came much closer to beating your CCIW leading Titans, than they did Augie. 

I know the final scores were: IWU 76 NPU 75; Augustana 74 NPU 60.  So technically, according to final scores, you are right of course.

I am not sure if I'd call the IWU/NPU all that "close" though.  IWU...

* Led by 10 at halftime
* Led by 9 at 15:00 2nd
* Led by 14 at the 10:00 2nd
* Led by 13 at 5:00 2nd
* Led by 10 at 1:35 2nd
* Led by 6 at 0:26 2nd
* Led by 3 at 0:14 2nd (and had the ball)

Colin Lake went to the FT line with 2 seconds to play, down 3.  He made both.  Lake had a 90 foot heave at the buzzer that would have won the game.

The only time in the final 33 minutes of the game that NPU had the ball w/ a shot to take the lead was the 90-foot heave at the buzzer.

So yes, the final was 1...and yes things got a little dicey when lake went to the FT line (because he could have intentionally missed the 2nd, and then who knows)...but I don't know, when you think about both games as a whole, was the IWU/NPU game closer than the IWU/Augie game?  Or were they sorta the same overall...but in very different ways?

The last time I looked, a game is 40 minutes.  Augie was in a tight game late in the 2nd half, but closed out NPU over the last 5 minutes to win by 14.  IWU had a bigger lead and had trouble closing it out and almost let NPU come back to win.  Hence, the IWU/NPU game was much closer than the Augie/NPU game when the game ended.  I don't think there is a "technical" qualification here.   I'm pointing this out because of some of the rationale '70 used in claiming that Augie is over-rated.  I tend to agree with your post that Augie and IWU are much closer than their current rankings and that IWU should probably be ranked higher than they currently are.  If they keep playing the way they have been, that will take care of itself. 

[markerickson]

I'm intrigued by Titan Q's observation in his post #11217.  Please keep the board posted.  Thanks.

[iwu70]

Q, not to worry.  You don't need disclaimers or explanations of my views.  We mostly agree, but sometimes disagreed, regardless of our strongly similar loyalties to our Titans.  I just thought AC didn't play up to its supposed rankings vs. NPU . . . and I think they felt relieved to win the game and get out of town.  Luck or no luck, you can say what you'all wish.  I do think they are over-rated in the poll, given their performances so far this year, for this year.  IWU and WC should be higher and I think AC lower.  As you say, perhaps 11/12 or so would be about right.  Of course, we'll see  more clearly very soon after the AC-WC game how it all plays out.  And, of course, our Greenies have the game up in Carver, the sequel of the game earlier.  Things will sort out in time.  No doubt, all these teams are very good, but not all will make the post season.  My point on NCC was exactly that -- that the loss to EC does not help their post-season resume or prospects.  Our Titans have been in that position a number of times -- at 18-7 or 19-6 and have been left out.  Q, thanks for all your work on the possible regional rankings and positioning.  Always thorough and helpful.  I don't get into the deep grass on all that -- so my opinions and views are more impressionistic, from watching the games and the teams.   Time will tell now as the key games play out.  My view is that WC and IWU are playing best now, then AC, then NCC.  In my view, those four make the CCIW tourney, leaving CC and EC out.  Time will tell. 

IWU'70

[Gregory Sager]

Wednesday's games:
Augustana (14-3, 6-2) @ Wheaton (13-4, 6-2)
Carroll (5-12, 1-7) @ North Park (4-12, 1-7)
Illinois Wesleyan (14-3, 7-1) @ Elmhurst (11-6, 4-4)
Millikin (8-9, 1-7) @ North Central (12-5, 5-3)

Massey sez:

Augustana 78, Wheaton 75	AC 59%, WC 41%
Carroll 67, North Park 64	CU 58%, NPU 42%
Illinois Wesleyan 80, Elmhurst 78	IWU 57%, EC 43%
North Central 78, Millikin 63	NCC 93%, MU 7%

[mwunder]

With regards to Carthage, I've noticed that Perry has issues defending centers with good outside shots.  He likes to camp under the basket and bang and, if he is pulled out to defend, he just isn't quick enough to get back into position on a drive.  Johnson, on the other hand, can come out and still defend the basket.  He's a little quicker than Perry, but I swear he's got long arms for his height too and, even if he give up position under the basket, he can still use his long arms to block a shot.

Could not agree more...see Elmhurst game and Lavon Thomas for an example of this.  Thomas hit two early jumpers from above the free throw line when Perry was in the game.  He didn't score once when Johnson was in the game.  I seem to remember a partial block by Johnson on an 18 foot attempt by Thomas in that game as well.

And, honestly, I don't think Perry can go more than 25 minutes a game at this point and I have my doubts about Johnson going that long as well (I know he did tonight, but he was falling over awfully easily in OT).

Truth.  I had high hopes after seeing him last year that he could somehow get himself into something closer to game shape than he was, but I don't believe it's happened.

To me, the key for Carthage making a second half run is getting everyone in synch, which means getting Baltimore integrated as I think Kruse has done a little less since Baltimore's return and it was Kruse's fine second half that sealed the deal against Elmhurst last Saturday and he really took care of business tonight.

I partially agree here, but I think shot selection is as big a factor as any for Carthage.  They continue to jack up threes early in the shot clock or settle for shots just inside the arc because they don't work it inside.  In all the games I've seen Kruse play, he was never less of a factor in any game than the Elmhurst game last Saturday, so I'm a bit puzzled by the comment about his fine second half.  He did go 6pts and 4 boards, but he had an awfully quiet game.  It was good to see him bounce back against the Big Blue.

Leazer is a plus defender.

Disagree strongly here.  He doesn't match up well with anyone who has size, or strength, or quickness.

[duckfan41]

Wednesday's games:
Augustana (14-3, 6-2) @ Wheaton (13-4, 6-2)
Carroll (5-12, 1-7) @ North Park (4-12, 1-7)
Illinois Wesleyan (14-3, 7-1) @ Elmhurst (11-6, 4-4)
Millikin (8-9, 1-7) @ North Central (12-5, 5-3)

Massey sez:

Augustana 78, Wheaton 75	AC 59%, WC 41%
Carroll 67, North Park 64	CU 58%, NPU 42%
Illinois Wesleyan 80, Elmhurst 78	IWU 57%, EC 43%
North Central 78, Millikin 63	NCC 93%, MU 7%

Very excited for the second half of the conference slate to begin on Wednesday. First off, I'm eager to see how Elmhurst fares against IWU at home, after losing in Bloomington by 12. Elmhurst is on a bit of a roll following the decisive win over North Central over the weekend, so we'll see if they can make the conference *that* much more interesting with a win over the visiting Titans.

The game I think most of us have circled due to recent threads on the boards is the Wheaton/Augustana game in King Arena. Wheaton pulled off a crucial road win in Rock Island two weeks ago, and look to continue their exceptional play of late at home. Augie is no-doubt out for revenge, and it is unlikely that Orange and Ebel will foul out again, so we'll see what happens. I expect this to be a very physical and competitive game, with the freethrow battle coming into serious play. Aston went off for 40 last time, and we'll see if any defensive adjustment is made by the Vikings, or if they'll try their luck with Francis being cold. Following Saturday's win over IIT, Schauer approached the student section and exclaimed, "Come on Wednesday. It's going to be the best game in America!" Certainly this game needed no hyping up here, but expect a large and Rowdy attendance on Wednesday night.

[bbfan44]

Paging AndOne, paging AndOne....I'm missing your post game analysis.  Hope you're not home with the flu...

[iwumichigander]

Paging AndOne, paging AndOne....I'm missing your post game analysis.  Hope you're not home with the flu...

Nah, he is probably still in shock 

[Mr. Ypsi]

Paging AndOne, paging AndOne....I'm missing your post game analysis.  Hope you're not home with the flu...

Nah, he is probably still in shock 

Be careful - I'm VERY nervous about playing Elmhurst on Wednesday. 

In other news, Augie jumps from 8 to 5 in this week's poll; IWU jumps from 24 to 18.  The ridiculous gap in votes between the loser by 19 and the winner by 19 shrinks only minimally.

Meanwhile, Wheaton (who also beat Augie, AT Augie) rises to 14 points, while NCC loses their token vote.

I agree with Titan Q that the logical order of rankings for CCIW teams (IGNORING preseason expectations and just looking at THIS season's data) is IWU, Wheaton, Augie.

[Titan Q]

Whitworth, #4 (486 points) - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Whitworth/men/2017-18/index

Wheaton, ORV (14 points) - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Wheaton_(Ill.)/men/2017-18/index


Which resume is better?

[Titan Q]

Be careful - I'm VERY nervous about playing Elmhurst on Wednesday. 

Elmhurst is very talented.  Considering how close the game was in Bloomington, that is going to be a very tough road game.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Whitworth, #4 (486 points) - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Whitworth/men/2017-18/index

Wheaton, ORV (14 points) - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Wheaton_(Ill.)/men/2017-18/index


Which resume is better?

Wheaton just needs to cut any contact with the MIAA!  Calvin and Alma are both quite bad this year (they are each 6-11), and Wheaton somehow lost to them both.

With those two terrible losses, I'm not sure I can say Wheaton's resume is better, but it certainly is not 472 points worse!

[iwu70]

Congrats to Brady Rose on a great week of basketball -- now Player of the Week in the CCIW for the third time this season.  Keep it up Brady, esp. in the big games upcoming.

IWU'70

[4samuy]

Wednesday's games:
Augustana (14-3, 6-2) @ Wheaton (13-4, 6-2)
Carroll (5-12, 1-7) @ North Park (4-12, 1-7)
Illinois Wesleyan (14-3, 7-1) @ Elmhurst (11-6, 4-4)
Millikin (8-9, 1-7) @ North Central (12-5, 5-3)

Massey sez:

Augustana 78, Wheaton 75	AC 59%, WC 41%
Carroll 67, North Park 64	CU 58%, NPU 42%
Illinois Wesleyan 80, Elmhurst 78	IWU 57%, EC 43%
North Central 78, Millikin 63	NCC 93%, MU 7%

Very excited for the second half of the conference slate to begin on Wednesday. First off, I'm eager to see how Elmhurst fares against IWU at home, after losing in Bloomington by 12. Elmhurst is on a bit of a roll following the decisive win over North Central over the weekend, so we'll see if they can make the conference *that* much more interesting with a win over the visiting Titans.

The game I think most of us have circled due to recent threads on the boards is the Wheaton/Augustana game in King Arena. Wheaton pulled off a crucial road win in Rock Island two weeks ago, and look to continue their exceptional play of late at home. Augie is no-doubt out for revenge, and it is unlikely that Orange and Ebel will foul out again, so we'll see what happens. I expect this to be a very physical and competitive game, with the freethrow battle coming into serious play. Aston went off for 40 last time, and we'll see if any defensive adjustment is made by the Vikings, or if they'll try their luck with Francis being cold. Following Saturday's win over IIT, Schauer approached the student section and exclaimed, "Come on Wednesday. It's going to be the best game in America!" Certainly this game needed no hyping up here, but expect a large and Rowdy attendance on Wednesday night.

Agree.

The last three conference games between Augustana and Wheaton have been decided by a total of nine points.