MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[duckfan41]

Wednesday's games:
Augustana (14-3, 6-2) @ Wheaton (13-4, 6-2)
Carroll (5-12, 1-7) @ North Park (4-12, 1-7)
Illinois Wesleyan (14-3, 7-1) @ Elmhurst (11-6, 4-4)
Millikin (8-9, 1-7) @ North Central (12-5, 5-3)

Massey sez:

Augustana 78, Wheaton 75	AC 59%, WC 41%
Carroll 67, North Park 64	CU 58%, NPU 42%
Illinois Wesleyan 80, Elmhurst 78	IWU 57%, EC 43%
North Central 78, Millikin 63	NCC 93%, MU 7%

Very excited for the second half of the conference slate to begin on Wednesday. First off, I'm eager to see how Elmhurst fares against IWU at home, after losing in Bloomington by 12. Elmhurst is on a bit of a roll following the decisive win over North Central over the weekend, so we'll see if they can make the conference *that* much more interesting with a win over the visiting Titans.

The game I think most of us have circled due to recent threads on the boards is the Wheaton/Augustana game in King Arena. Wheaton pulled off a crucial road win in Rock Island two weeks ago, and look to continue their exceptional play of late at home. Augie is no-doubt out for revenge, and it is unlikely that Orange and Ebel will foul out again, so we'll see what happens. I expect this to be a very physical and competitive game, with the freethrow battle coming into serious play. Aston went off for 40 last time, and we'll see if any defensive adjustment is made by the Vikings, or if they'll try their luck with Francis being cold. Following Saturday's win over IIT, Schauer approached the student section and exclaimed, "Come on Wednesday. It's going to be the best game in America!" Certainly this game needed no hyping up here, but expect a large and Rowdy attendance on Wednesday night.

Agree.

The last three conference games between Augustana and Wheaton have been decided by a total of nine points.

Always a good game when these two come together. Wheaton has come a very long way since the overtime thriller in King in 2015-2016!

[GoPerry]

Travel will cause me to miss the Augustana/Wheaton game on Wednesday which is terribly annoying.  Wheaton will have to be ready right out of the gate.  Must rebound the ball!  Stay out of foul trouble. Massey has the Thunder as a 3 pt dog which is fine.  D3Hoops ranking is what it is.  Playing with a chip on their shoulder and continuing to prove themselves wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.  Even at home, Francis can't do it alone against a top team.

I'll be interested to see how many Viking fans make the trip, especially students.  Last year, Mike Schauer was quite upset at some of the Augie students (football players?) who showed up using some "colorful" language and antics that wasn't appreciated.

[GoPerry]

Whitworth, #4 (486 points) - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Whitworth/men/2017-18/index

Wheaton, ORV (14 points) - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Wheaton_(Ill.)/men/2017-18/index


Which resume is better?

Wheaton just needs to cut any contact with the MIAA!  Calvin and Alma are both quite bad this year (they are each 6-11), and Wheaton somehow lost to them both.

With those two terrible losses, I'm not sure I can say Wheaton's resume is better, but it certainly is not 472 points worse!

The home loss to Alma might be the one that really haunts them in the end.  A real bad one.

[Greek Tragedy]

I really think the gap between #5 Augie (14-3) with 480 and #18 IWU (14-3) with only 194 needs to be looked at and explained. There is no reason for this disparity especially since IWU beat them badly. 

[USee]

Whitworth, #4 (486 points) - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Whitworth/men/2017-18/index

Wheaton, ORV (14 points) - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Wheaton_(Ill.)/men/2017-18/index


Which resume is better?

Wheaton just needs to cut any contact with the MIAA!  Calvin and Alma are both quite bad this year (they are each 6-11), and Wheaton somehow lost to them both.

With those two terrible losses, I'm not sure I can say Wheaton's resume is better, but it certainly is not 472 points worse!

The home loss to Alma might be the one that really haunts them in the end.  A real bad one.

A smart guy who started this site has repeated, "It's not who you lost to, it's who you beat".

Wheaton has wins on the road vs #4 and #5 and a win at home vs #24. I don't see many teams with 3 better wins than that. The reality is there are a lot of teams in the top 25 with good records and few losses. Wheaton's results are more volatile than some others so understandably there is some caution in their relative rank. If they finish the CCIW slate with another 6-2/7-1 performance, this will all sort itself out, despite the obvious voter bias in the poll today.

[Gregory Sager]

I really think the gap between #5 Augie (14-3) with 480 and #18 IWU (14-3) with only 194 needs to be looked at and explained. There is no reason for this disparity especially since IWU beat them badly. 

Tom, I spent two days on CCIW Chat last week hammering D-Mac about that disparity. Bob's done the same.

Give credit to D-Mac, who at least owns up to his ballot every week and who made it clear that he considered Augustana to be significantly ahead of Illinois Wesleyan in terms of how they have been playing since the Titans stomped Augie at the beginning of the month (although he wasn't entirely convicted in his belief). And I give some credit to Ryan as well, who stated that he's blown up his ballot more than once since the season started -- so he's not putting Augie way ahead of IWU because of anchoring bias caused by simply moving a few pieces from week to week within a puzzle that he put together in mid-November.

But if you're looking for an explanation in terms of actual analysis -- why, who, how, breaking down the two teams in terms of their actual performances and current lineups -- from a pollster, it ain't gonna happen.

[Greek Tragedy]

I was joking, hence all the...

I actually find it amusing how worked up some of the posters get in this board over the lack of respect in the rankings for their teams.

[GoPerry]

Whitworth, #4 (486 points) - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Whitworth/men/2017-18/index

Wheaton, ORV (14 points) - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Wheaton_(Ill.)/men/2017-18/index


Which resume is better?

Wheaton just needs to cut any contact with the MIAA!  Calvin and Alma are both quite bad this year (they are each 6-11), and Wheaton somehow lost to them both.

With those two terrible losses, I'm not sure I can say Wheaton's resume is better, but it certainly is not 472 points worse!

The home loss to Alma might be the one that really haunts them in the end.  A real bad one.

A smart guy who started this site has repeated, "It's not who you lost to, it's who you beat".

Wheaton has wins on the road vs #4 and #5 and a win at home vs #24. I don't see many teams with 3 better wins than that. The reality is there are a lot of teams in the top 25 with good records and few losses. Wheaton's results are more volatile than some others so understandably there is some caution in their relative rank. If they finish the CCIW slate with another 6-2/7-1 performance, this will all sort itself out, despite the obvious voter bias in the poll today.

I'm not really speaking about the bad quality of loss affecting anything.  I'm talking about a loss that should been a win coming back to get them from a final record an win% standpoint. I agree entirely if they finish with 19-6 then 19-7 or 20-7, they'll be in a solid Pool C position.  But with 4 losses already, should they falter slightly and finish 18-8, 19-8 (the typical bubble territory), that additional loss might make the difference for an otherwise deserving team.

[Pat Coleman]

Whitworth, #4 (486 points) - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Whitworth/men/2017-18/index

Wheaton, ORV (14 points) - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Wheaton_(Ill.)/men/2017-18/index


Which resume is better?

Wheaton just needs to cut any contact with the MIAA!  Calvin and Alma are both quite bad this year (they are each 6-11), and Wheaton somehow lost to them both.

With those two terrible losses, I'm not sure I can say Wheaton's resume is better, but it certainly is not 472 points worse!

The home loss to Alma might be the one that really haunts them in the end.  A real bad one.

A smart guy who started this site has repeated, "It's not who you lost to, it's who you beat".

USee -- this proverb, shall we say, was meant to be applied to teams who have close losses to good teams rather than wins. It's not really applicable here. But thank you.

[USee]

Whitworth, #4 (486 points) - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Whitworth/men/2017-18/index

Wheaton, ORV (14 points) - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Wheaton_(Ill.)/men/2017-18/index


Which resume is better?

Wheaton just needs to cut any contact with the MIAA!  Calvin and Alma are both quite bad this year (they are each 6-11), and Wheaton somehow lost to them both.

With those two terrible losses, I'm not sure I can say Wheaton's resume is better, but it certainly is not 472 points worse!

The home loss to Alma might be the one that really haunts them in the end.  A real bad one.

A smart guy who started this site has repeated, "It's not who you lost to, it's who you beat".

USee -- this proverb, shall we say, was meant to be applied to teams who have close losses to good teams rather than wins. It's not really applicable here. But thank you.

Oh I am well aware of it's intended use. And I am well-known for taking things out of context and applying them where they almost fit  .

That said, I think the proverb does hold weight in this account as the wins Wheaton has on their resume stack up against almost any team in the current top 25. As I said, if they play the second half similarly to the first the rankings will take care of itself.

[Gregory Sager]

I was joking, hence all the...

I know you were. I responded the way that I did because I wasn't sure that you had read all of the back-and-forth between D-Mac and I (with the occasional interjection from Bob) last week. I can't remember the last time that you posted on CCIW Chat, so I wasn't really sure if you were keeping up with this room in particular, especially since it scrolls so quickly. In other words, I took your joke as an invitation to lay out the 411 of the debate. I apologize if this was stuff that you had already read.

I actually find it amusing how worked up some of the posters get in this board over the lack of respect in the rankings for their teams.

Well, we're a pretty passionate bunch, after all. But, in my case, this was not about me getting worked up over a lack of respect in the rankings for my team. Illinois Wesleyan is most definitely not my team. Nor is this a case of me promoting the CCIW at large by promoting one of its teams, because, after all, Augustana is just as much a part of the CCIW as is Illinois Wesleyan, and this conversation has been as much about Augustana not living up to being the preseason #2 as it has been about Illinois Wesleyan deserving more love from the voters. For me, this is about process, specifically the methodology of the d3hoops.com poll. As I said last week, and as Pat will attest, I've been harping on the issue of the preseason poll bleeding into the in-season polls and compromising their usefulness for the better part of twenty years now. I'm sure that he's sick of me bringing it up, which is why I was so pleased that this time it was izzy and Bob who brought it up. 

[Pat Coleman]

That said, I think the proverb does hold weight in this account as the wins Wheaton has on their resume stack up against almost any team in the current top 25. As I said, if they play the second half similarly to the first the rankings will take care of itself.

I think you're right -- and if not for the Alma loss, they would be getting a lot more votes.

Having been a little frustrated with the glacial adjustment pace of the Top 25 panel this season, I mocked up a Top 25 ballot yesterday and was reminded how difficult it is this year. Beyond No. 1, I had a lot of questions. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I fully intended to do a McHugh-style ballot breakdown this week (and I may get to it, although the ATN column is taking more time this week than usual, so who knows) mostly because this is the first week I feel fully confident defending every pick I made (even the last three who I don't think are really Top 25 worthy).

I fully intended, entering my research phase, to put IWU ahead of Augie.  I've said here I believe they are currently on opposite trajectories and are certainly pretty close in level of play, even if IWU is a little less consistent than I like and Augie isn't playing up to par.  However, in light of the full resume, I ended up leaving Augie ahead, albeit by just one spot.

In the end, IWU's narrow loss to Carthage, W at Wheaton, W at NCC week is very impressive, plus the head to head with Augie don't fully make up for the WashU blowout and the poor performance at the Emory tournament.  Recent CCIW are, in fact, CCIW wins, but they've not been against the best teams in the conference and not by enough.

For Augie, despite some poor showings (ie most of January), they're still winning games and what they did in the first semester, to me, is still better than what IWU has done.  So even with my eye-test bias going in, I couldn't justify making the move just yet.  I do have them 6-7 right now, which feels too high, but almost everyone on my ballot feels too high this year (including Whitman).

There is plenty of season left for IWU to really prove dominance if there's dominance to be proved.

[Gregory Sager]

Ironically, Dave has now flipped Augie and IWU. He has IWU 14th and Augie 15th this week.

Ryan, I doubt that anyone would have an issue with you slotting Augie one spot ahead of IWU. The complaints in this room were about the wide disparity between the two in terms of poll position and poll points (a wide disparity that, while lessened, still exists in this week's poll, mind you), not about which one should be ahead of the other.

[Titan Q]

Illinois Wesleyan (14-3, 7-1) at Elmhurst (11-6, 4-4), 7pm...

Illinois Wesleyan (14-3, 7-1)
G - Brady Rose, 6-3/185 Jr.  22.9 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 3.2 apg
G - Colin Bonnett, 6-4/190 Jr.  12.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.7 apg
G - Jason Gregoire, 6-4/195 Jr.  6.3 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.9 apg
F - Jaylen Beasley, 6-6/185 Sr.  6.4 ppg, 6.7 rpg
C - Alex O'Neill, 6-9/245 So.  8.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg

Elmhurst (11-6, 4-4)
G - Jake Rhode, 5-10/165 Fr. 15.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 5.6 apg
G - Ryan Patton, 6-2/190 So. 9.8 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 1.4 apg
F - Lavon Thomas, 6-5/255 Fr. 9.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg
F - Lance Gardner, 6-7/195 Jr. 9.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg
F - Jeremy Ireland, 6-7/225 Jr. 16.7 ppg, 9.5 rpg


Pantagraph: http://www.pantagraph.com/sports/college/basketball/men/surging-iwu-hopes-to-extend-win-streak-at-elmhurst/article_d9f43697-86e7-519f-b973-16d714186c88.html

Video - https://livestream.com/elmhurstcollege

WJBC Radio - https://portal.stretchinternet.com/wjbc/

Live stats - http://sidearmstats.com/elmhurst/mbball/