MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Titan Q]

Here is the official Central Region ranking from this week...

1. Wash U
2. UW-Platteville
3. Augustana
4. UW-Oshkosh
5. UW-Stevens Point
6. Illinois Wesleyan
7. North Central
8. Wheaton

Here is what I believe the ranking would be if done right now...

1. Wash U: .916 (22-2)/.540/7-2  at Chicago, 3pm CT
2. Augustana: .808 (21-5)/.570/7-3  vs North Central, 7pm CT
3. UW-Platteville: .833 (20-4)/.577/4-1  done
4. UW-Oshkosh: .741 (20-7)/.554/2-4  done
5. UW-Stevens Point: .692 (18-8)/.605/4-6  vs UW-River Falls, Sunday 2pm CT
6. North Central: .720 (18-7)/.555/4-4  at Augustana, 7pm CT
7. Illinois Wesleyan: .731 (19-7)/.550/3-6  done
8. UW-River Falls: .692 (18-8)/.587/3-6  at UW-Stevens Point, Sunday 2pm CT

There is a lot in play here...

* If Wash U loses at Chicago while Augustana beats NCC, it's very possible Augustana could overtake #1 (Augie won at Wash U).

* UW-Stevens Point would be very competitive for a Pool C based on SOS and RRO, but not a lock due to .667 WP.  It's not out of the question for the Pointers to fall below IWU in the final Central ranking w/ a loss (.731 WP vs .667). The Pointers have to feel like they are in a must-win game.

* North Central is the CCIW's Pool A with a win in Rock Island, but with a loss the Cards are, a) in a battle with IWU for regional ranking, and b) down near the end of the bubble. 

* UW-River Falls is most likely in a must-win game - probably going to end up on the wrong side of the Pool C bubble with a loss.

Lots of stuff going on here.

[Greek Tragedy]

Here is the official Central Region ranking from this week...

1. Wash U
2. UW-Platteville
3. Augustana
4. UW-Oshkosh
5. UW-Stevens Point
6. Illinois Wesleyan
7. North Central
8. Wheaton

Here is what I believe the ranking would be if done right now...

1. Wash U: .916 (22-2)/.540/7-2  at Chicago, 3pm CT
2. Augustana: .808 (21-5)/.570/7-3  vs North Central, 7pm CT
3. UW-Platteville: .833 (20-4)/.577/4-1  done
4. UW-Oshkosh: .741 (20-7)/.554/2-4  done
5. UW-Stevens Point: .692 (18-8)/.605/4-6  vs UW-River Falls, Sunday 2pm CT
6. North Central: .720 (18-7)/.555/4-4  at Augustana, 7pm CT
7. Illinois Wesleyan: .731 (19-7)/.550/3-6  done
8. UW-River Falls: .692 (18-8)/.587/3-6  at UW-Stevens Point, Sunday 2pm CT

There is a lot in play here...

* If Wash U loses at Chicago while Augustana beats NCC, it's very possible Augustana could overtake #1 (Augie won at Wash U).

* UW-Stevens Point would be very competitive for a Pool C based on SOS and RRO, but not a lock due to .667 WP.  It's not out of the question for the Pointers to fall below IWU in the final Central ranking w/ a loss (.731 WP vs .667). The Pointers have to feel like they are in a must-win game.

* North Central is the CCIW's Pool A with a win in Rock Island, but with a loss the Cards are, a) in a battle with IWU for regional ranking, and b) down near the end of the bubble. 

* UW-River Falls is most likely in a must-win game - probably going to end up on the wrong side of the Pool C bubble with a loss.

Lots of stuff going on here.

Even if I was a neutral observer, I'm trying to figure out your logic here. I don't know how accurate the numbers are (the vRRO seem to be off)...

Last week:

5. Stevens Point 17-8 (.680) 5-5 vRRO .605 SOS
6. IWU 19-5 (.792) 2-4 vRRO .544 SOS

So, this shows here that Point is ahead of IWU.

The results this week:

Point beats regionally ranked opponent  Oshkosh...and for argument's sake, Point loses to unranked River Falls.

IWU loses to regionally ranked opponent NCC on Tuesday, loses to regionally ranked opponent NCC Friday.

Therefore, Point's record goes to 18-9, .667. IWU's record goes to 19-7, .730. The winning % gap got closer. If River Falls wins the AQ, I'm guessing they will jump Wheaton in the Regional Rankings, by going 2-0 this week, both wins against Regionally ranked opponents Platteville and Stevens Point. In theory, Point's vRRO would increase to 2-1 simply by having River Falls in regional rankings. In addition, it would automatically go up another win because they topped Oshkosh in the semis. So, potentially their vRRO would improve to 3-1.

IWU would increase their vRRO by 2, but both are losses. So, Point gains there as well. If Point loses in the WIAC Final to River Falls, I really don't see how IWU would jump them. In fact, in your post, Point would have to fall below IWU AND NCC. I suppose it's not entirely out of the question for NCC to jump Point because they would be 2-1 this week vs Regionally Ranked opponents if they lose to Augustana.

You seem to have a better handle on this Pool C stuff than I do, so I could completely be missing something here or just don't quite understand how things work as well as you do.

[Gregory Sager]

Brady Rose was totally MIA tonight. I can't remember the last time I saw a CCIW superstar have such an abjectly awful night under the big lights. He didn't even score his second field goal of the night until there were only 65 seconds left in the game.

Brady Rose.  Woof.

More like Poof...he disappeared.

The old adage in sports is that you win with defense. In the last few games the Cardinal defense has been stifling at times. Led principally by Aiden Chang, Brady Rose has particularly been the victim of that defense. In Tuesday's and last night's games Rose went a combined 10 for 39 (25.6%). This includes 3 for 14 (21.4%) on threes.
The defense doesn't rest. 

Chang played solid defense on Rose last night, but a lot of Rose's problems were self-inflicted. He drove past Chang and attempted several runners in the vicinity of the basket early on, and he's usually money on those. Last night they rimmed out. He also had a couple of wide-open looks from beyond the arc in the first ten minutes that hit the inside of the rim and popped out.

As the night went on he must've felt that he was snake-bitten, and it appeared that he let it get to him a bit. As Dan and Chris pointed out in the broadcast, a number of his second-half shots were not in rhythm. It was almost as though he was trying to will himself into re-establishing his shooting mojo, and you don't do that by will -- you do it by relaxing, staying within the flow of the possession, and sticking to your fundamentals. The harder he tried, the worse he got.

Again, that's not to discount what Chang did. I'm sure that the extra work Rose had to put in just to get the open looks he had made the situation worse for him. But most of the 17 shots Rose missed from the field last night were ones that he usually makes.

[Titan Q]

Even if I was a neutral observer, I'm trying to figure out your logic here. I don't know how accurate the numbers are (the vRRO seem to be off)...

Last week:

5. Stevens Point 17-8 (.680) 5-5 vRRO .605 SOS
6. IWU 19-5 (.792) 2-4 vRRO .544 SOS

So, this shows here that Point is ahead of IWU.

The results this week:

Point beats regionally ranked opponent  Oshkosh...and for argument's sake, Point loses to unranked River Falls.

IWU loses to regionally ranked opponent NCC on Tuesday, loses to regionally ranked opponent NCC Friday.

Therefore, Point's record goes to 18-9, .667. IWU's record goes to 19-7, .730. The winning % gap got closer. If River Falls wins the AQ, I'm guessing they will jump Wheaton in the Regional Rankings, by going 2-0 this week, both wins against Regionally ranked opponents Platteville and Stevens Point. In theory, Point's vRRO would increase to 2-1 simply by having River Falls in regional rankings. In addition, it would automatically go up another win because they topped Oshkosh in the semis. So, potentially their vRRO would improve to 3-1.

IWU would increase their vRRO by 2, but both are losses. So, Point gains there as well. If Point loses in the WIAC Final to River Falls, I really don't see how IWU would jump them. In fact, in your post, Point would have to fall below IWU AND NCC. I suppose it's not entirely out of the question for NCC to jump Point because they would be 2-1 this week vs Regionally Ranked opponents if they lose to Augustana.

You seem to have a better handle on this Pool C stuff than I do, so I could completely be missing something here or just don't quite understand how things work as well as you do.

My point is just that these resumes are all very close...

(UWSP and NCC numbers assume a loss since we're talking Pool C.)

* UW-Stevens Point (WE/WIAC): .667 (18-9)/.605/4-6
* Illinois Wesleyan (CE/CCIW): .731 (19-7)/.550/3-6
* North Central (CE/CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.555/4-5

You could arrange those in almost any order possible and not be wrong.

Another point - the final ranking is typically based on a little different methodology than the previous rankings.  In the previous rankings the RACs are working hard to order the teams properly, but in that final ranking the RAC has much more sense of the national Pool C implications.  As they start to look at the right order from a Pool C perspective, often their thinking changes a bit.  On top of that, the national committee reviews the regional rankings and can make adjustments -- if the national committee thinks the RAC doesn't have the right order in terms of Pool C competitiveness, they will change.

I wouldn't get too hung up on how teams were stacked in week #2 or week #3, and what results have transpired since the last rankings.  At this point I think you just have to look fresh at every resume in the region and start the ranking with a blank slate.  In this case, those UWSP, IWU, and NCC resumes are very different...and very even.  Chances are UWSP remains the highest of the 3.

[AndOne]

North Central faces a stiff challenge tonight as they face Augie on their home floor, having previously dropped two games to the western Vikings during the regular season. However, the Cardinals have won the last 3 games against Wheaton and IWU twice, which were all contests that few other than those aligned with NCC gave them much chance of winning. Additionally, Augie has recently suffered a large loss, especially on the defensive end, with 6'11" Micah Martin sustaining an unfortunate recent knee injury which will render him out of tonight's game.

Last season, the Cardinals became the first 4 seed to capture the CCIW Tournament Championship.
This year, they enter as the 3 seed. The 3 seed has never won the tourney title.
North Central has previously reached the conference tournament championship game four times, and has emerged victorious all four times. 

Augie has qualified for the CCIW tournament championship all 12 years, and has 5 titles.
North Central has qualified 10 times, and has won 4 championships.
Last night's semifinal loser Wheaton has made 9 tournament appearances, and has captured the trophy 2 times.
Carthage, who hosted last year's tourney but did not qualify this season, has made the tournament 3 times and has 1 championship.
Last night's other semifinal loser, Illinois Wesleyan, has made the tournament 10 out of it's 12 years, but has surprisingly failed to win any championships.

[AndOne]

Brady Rose was totally MIA tonight. I can't remember the last time I saw a CCIW superstar have such an abjectly awful night under the big lights. He didn't even score his second field goal of the night until there were only 65 seconds left in the game.

Brady Rose.  Woof.

More like Poof...he disappeared.

The old adage in sports is that you win with defense. In the last few games the Cardinal defense has been stifling at times. Led principally by Aiden Chang, Brady Rose has particularly been the victim of that defense. In Tuesday's and last night's games Rose went a combined 10 for 39 (25.6%). This includes 3 for 14 (21.4%) on threes.
The defense doesn't rest. 

Chang played solid defense on Rose last night, but a lot of Rose's problems were self-inflicted. He drove past Chang and attempted several runners in the vicinity of the basket early on, and he's usually money on those. Last night they rimmed out. He also had a couple of wide-open looks from beyond the arc in the first ten minutes that hit the inside of the rim and popped out.

As the night went on he must've felt that he was snake-bitten, and it appeared that he let it get to him a bit. As Dan and Chris pointed out in the broadcast, a number of his second-half shots were not in rhythm. It was almost as though he was trying to will himself into re-establishing his shooting mojo, and you don't do that by will -- you do it by relaxing, staying within the flow of the possession, and sticking to your fundamentals. The harder he tried, the worse he got.

Again, that's not to discount what Chang did. I'm sure that the extra work Rose had to put in just to get the open looks he had made the situation worse for him. But most of the 17 shots Rose missed from the field last night were ones that he usually makes.

"Again that's not to discount what Chang did." For someone not wanting to discount Aiden's efforts, you seem to have done a pretty fair job of doing so. 

"But most of the 17 shots Rose missed from the field last night were ones that he usually makes." Maybe it was the air currents in the Carver Center that interfered with Rose's shots rather than anything Aiden or any of the other Cardinals did. 

[AndOne]

This ranking stuff is enough to make your head spin. 🤷🏻‍♂️
When it comes right down to it, it seems like NCC's 2 out of 3 wins over IWU should count for something. But who really knows? 🤔
As Bob said, the Regional Committee might rank teams in a certain order, but the National Committee might change things up. 🤓

[Titan Q]

This ranking stuff is enough to make your head spin. 🤷🏻‍♂️
When it comes right down to it, it seems like NCC's 2 out of 3 wins over IWU should count for something. But who really knows? 🤔
As Bob said, the Regional Committee might rank teams in a certain order, but the National Committee might change things up. 🤓

It definitely counts for something.  NCC's 2 wins over IWU are very significant.  Just a matter of how the entire resumes are interpreted relative to Pool C competitiveness. Could go either way really.

[Kovo]

This ranking stuff is enough to make your head spin. 🤷🏻‍♂️
When it comes right down to it, it seems like NCC's 2 out of 3 wins over IWU should count for something. But who really knows? 🤔
As Bob said, the Regional Committee might rank teams in a certain order, but the National Committee might change things up. 🤓

It definitely counts for something.  NCC's 2 wins over IWU are very significant.  Just a matter of how the entire resumes are interpreted relative to Pool C competitiveness. Could go either way really.

Last week I was told that win %, SOS and wins against RRO were everything.  This week it is an entire resume that matters---whatever that means.    Guess the answer is to win the tournament or wait for the committee to flip the coins. 

[Titan Q]

Last week I was told that win %, SOS and wins against RRO were everything.  This week it is an entire resume that matters---whatever that means.    Guess the answer is to win the tournament or wait for the committee to flip the coins. 

That is what I mean by entire resume - winning %, SOS, RRO.  Those 3 numbers are used in the Pool C selection process.

[BobbyO]

So with Wash U losing to Chicago what now happens to the rankings? Since Augie beat them and IWU lost big time who improves now?

[Titan Q]

So with Wash U losing to Chicago what now happens to the rankings? Since Augie beat them and IWU lost big time who improves now?

If Augie beats NCC, I believe the Vikings are the #1 seed in the Central region.

[Greek Tragedy]

So with Wash U losing to Chicago what now happens to the rankings? Since Augie beat them and IWU lost big time who improves now?

If Augie beats NCC, I believe the Vikings are the #1 seed in the Central region.

Possibly, but that's a big gap to fill. The vRRO leans heavily towards Wash U, the win % still favors Wash U and the SOS is close, but barely in Augustana's side...and they have a win over the Bears.

[Titan Q]

So with Wash U losing to Chicago what now happens to the rankings? Since Augie beat them and IWU lost big time who improves now?

If Augie beats NCC, I believe the Vikings are the #1 seed in the Central region.

Possibly, but that's a big gap to fill. The vRRO leans heavily towards Wash U, the win % still favors Wash U and the SOS is close, but barely in Augustana's side...and they have a win over the Bears.

Here are the numbers if Augie wins tonight...

*Wash U: .880 (22-3)/.540 ish/7-2 
*Augustana: .815 (22-5)/.570 ish/8-3 

Add in an Augie win at Wash U and it's not even a discussion really.  Easily Augie.

[Titan Q]

My updated look at Pool C as of 6:30pm CT - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1859630#msg1859630.

I have NCC in good shape as of right now -- again, a loss tonight changes their winning percentage quite a bit though. 

I have IWU in the #18 slot.  Directly above IWU I have Augsburg, who plays Bethel tomorrow in the MIAC title game.  Either way that game ends up, I believe IWU will move up a spot -- either Augsburg wins and exits Pool C, or they lose and fall a spot or two due to the winning percentage drop.  So basically I consider IWU #17 right now.

There are 5 Bubble Burster games left (noted on that link).  I already have NCC ahead of IWU, so let's just say the NCC/Augie game is sort of a non-factor for IWU right now -- whether Augie or NCC is the Pool C, IWU still comes out of that game about #17.  (Let's assume NCC is definitely ahead of IWU in the final regional ranking.)  That leaves 4 Bubble Burster games -- Cabrini, John Carroll, UW-Stevens Point, Sul Ross State.  If all 4 go the wrong way, I'd have IWU #21...in, in the very last spot.  That would be even less comfortable than right now is.  So if you are an IWU Pool C fan, you want as many of those 4 to go the right way as possible.