MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[iwu70]

Let's hope their assessment is correct.  Would love to see 3 bids for the CCIW.  When the tournament starts, everyone is 0-0.  A new season. . .

'70

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I could see both or neither getting in.  This really will be a tough one.  I wouldn't be surprised if we get 5 wrong this year.

[Greek Tragedy]

I could see both or neither getting in.  This really will be a tough one.  I wouldn't be surprised if we get 5 wrong this year.

Reminds when La Crosse and Oshkosh were "in the mix," but one was ranked ahead of the other, yet 0-3 against that team (don't recall which team was which off hand), so neither got in, though both were considered. They couldn't take one because they were 0-3 against the other and couldn't take the other because they were regionally ranked lower.

[AndOne]

One thing is for certain re NCC and IWU. If only one gets in, it will be NCC.
However, I'm sensing the CCIW will be a 3 bid conference this year. 🏀 🏀 🏀

[kiko]

One thing is for certain re NCC and IWU. If only one gets in, it will be NCC.
However, I'm sensing the CCIW will be a 3 bid conference this year. 🏀 🏀 🏀

While I hope you are right, I don't know that I would take that to the bank.

Illinois Wesleyan has stronger credentials on overall winning percentage, while North Central is stronger on the other three primary criteria.  In each case, the difference is not gaping, but the Cardinals' overall winning percentage could cause them to face some headwinds.

If the regional committee or the selection committee leans more heavily into winning percentage, the Titans could easily be sit higher than the Cardinals in the pecking order.  I hope they aren't, but it is certainly possible.

[USee]

One thing is for certain re NCC and IWU. If only one gets in, it will be NCC.
However, I'm sensing the CCIW will be a 3 bid conference this year. 🏀 🏀 🏀

The only thing we know for certain is that you have no better idea of what's going to happen than anyone else. Go CCIW!

[Titan Q]

Using my final projection, it seems there are 16 very safe teams...

1. Hamilton (NE/NESCAC): .846 (22-4)/.573/6-3 
2. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .778 (21-6)/.590/8-4   
3. UW-Platteville (CE/WIAC: .833 (20-4)/.577/4-1   
4. Whitman (WE/NWC): .962 (25-1)/.515/4-1
5. Swarthmore (MA/CC): .815 (22-5)/.542/3-4   
6. St. John's (WE/MIAC): .880 (22-3)/.524/3-2 
7. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC): .760 (19-6).590/4-6   
8. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .778 (21-6)/.565/4-3
9. Marietta (GL/OAC): .778 (21-6)/.564/4-5   
10. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .731 (19-7)/.567/6-4   
11. Emory (SO/UAA): .840 (21-4)/.530/4-2 
12. Christopher Newport (MA/CAC): .777 (21-6)/.546/3-2   
13. UW-Oshkosh (CE/WIAC): .741 (20-7)/.554/2-4   
14. St. Olaf (WE/MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2   
15. Albright (MA/Commonwealth): .769 (20-6)/.544/3-2   
16. Franklin and Marshall (MA/CC): .769 (20-6)/.536/3-4 

And then the bubble starts here...

17. North Central (CE/CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.563/4-5   
18. Illinois Wesleyan (CE/CCIW): .731 (19-7)/.550/3-6 
19. Amherst (NE/NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6 
20. Springfield (NE/NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2 
21. Loras (WE/IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.542/2-3   

Top teams left at the table...
* Ohio Wesleyan (GL/NCAC): .679 (19-9)/.564/3-5 
* LeTourneau (SO/ASC): .852 (23-4)/.511/2-2
* Hobart (East/LL): .808 (21-5)/.526/1-2
* Gwynedd Mercy (AT/CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.519/2-3
* Keene State (NE/LEC): .679/.575/2-6
* UW-River Falls (CE/WIAC): .667 (18-9)/.586/3-7   


I believe NCC and IWU are going to get in...and hope I'm right.  But if they don't get in, this isn't a situation where anyone should do a bunch of complaining about it.  Neither team did what it needed to get in comfortable Pool C position.

Good luck, NCC and IWU fans...gonna be a long morning.

[GoPerry]

Using my final projection, it seems there are 16 very safe teams...

1. Hamilton (NE/NESCAC): .846 (22-4)/.573/6-3 
2. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .778 (21-6)/.590/8-4   
3. UW-Platteville (CE/WIAC: .833 (20-4)/.577/4-1   
4. Whitman (WE/NWC): .962 (25-1)/.515/4-1
5. Swarthmore (MA/CC): .815 (22-5)/.542/3-4   
6. St. John's (WE/MIAC): .880 (22-3)/.524/3-2 
7. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC): .760 (19-6).590/4-6   
8. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .778 (21-6)/.565/4-3
9. Marietta (GL/OAC): .778 (21-6)/.564/4-5   
10. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .731 (19-7)/.567/6-4   
11. Emory (SO/UAA): .840 (21-4)/.530/4-2 
12. Christopher Newport (MA/CAC): .777 (21-6)/.546/3-2   
13. UW-Oshkosh (CE/WIAC): .741 (20-7)/.554/2-4   
14. St. Olaf (WE/MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2   
15. Albright (MA/Commonwealth): .769 (20-6)/.544/3-2   
16. Franklin and Marshall (MA/CC): .769 (20-6)/.536/3-4 

And then the bubble starts here...

17. North Central (CE/CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.563/4-5   
18. Illinois Wesleyan (CE/CCIW): .731 (19-7)/.550/3-6 
19. Amherst (NE/NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6 
20. Springfield (NE/NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2 
21. Loras (WE/IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.542/2-3   

Top teams left at the table...
* Ohio Wesleyan (GL/NCAC): .679 (19-9)/.564/3-5 
* LeTourneau (SO/ASC): .852 (23-4)/.511/2-2
* Hobart (East/LL): .808 (21-5)/.526/1-2
* Gwynedd Mercy (AT/CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.519/2-3
* Keene State (NE/LEC): .679/.575/2-6
* UW-River Falls (CE/WIAC): .667 (18-9)/.586/3-7   


I believe NCC and IWU are going to get in...and hope I'm right.  But if they don't get in, this isn't a situation where anyone should do a bunch of complaining about it.  Neither team did what it needed to get in comfortable Pool C position.

Good luck, NCC and IWU fans...gonna be a long morning.

Great job Q.  Thanks for updating this throughout.  Following the logic, it looks like both IWU and NCC get in as I speculate on it - which I'm relegated to do since my pony is out.

Btw, a team's actual # of games vRRO, i.e. 2-2 vRRO or 4-4 vRRO, is not a stated criteria.  So I presume they just let SOS account for that as best it can?

[Kovo]

One thing is for certain re NCC and IWU. If only one gets in, it will be NCC.
However, I'm sensing the CCIW will be a 3 bid conference this year. 🏀 🏀 🏀

While I hope you are right, I don't know that I would take that to the bank.

Illinois Wesleyan has stronger credentials on overall winning percentage, while North Central is stronger on the other three primary criteria.  In each case, the difference is not gaping, but the Cardinals' overall winning percentage could cause them to face some headwinds.

If the regional committee or the selection committee leans more heavily into winning percentage, the Titans could easily be sit higher than the Cardinals in the pecking order.  I hope they aren't, but it is certainly possible.

19-8 vs 19-7 is that big of a difference?!

[Greek Tragedy]

GoPerry,

RESULTS vRRO is stated, I believe, so in that sense the # of games is actually factored. 3-6 could be better than 4-2. I believe they also look at who you've beaten who is regionally ranked. 4 wins could be against the #6, #7, #8 and #10 ranked teams while another team could have 2 wins, but against the #1 and #2 ranked teams, regionally.

[lmitzel]

One thing is for certain re NCC and IWU. If only one gets in, it will be NCC.
However, I'm sensing the CCIW will be a 3 bid conference this year. 🏀 🏀 🏀

While I hope you are right, I don't know that I would take that to the bank.

Illinois Wesleyan has stronger credentials on overall winning percentage, while North Central is stronger on the other three primary criteria.  In each case, the difference is not gaping, but the Cardinals' overall winning percentage could cause them to face some headwinds.

If the regional committee or the selection committee leans more heavily into winning percentage, the Titans could easily be sit higher than the Cardinals in the pecking order.  I hope they aren't, but it is certainly possible.

19-8 vs 19-7 is that big of a difference?!

19-7: .731
19-8: .704

27 percentage points is a lot, but the Cardinals have the advantage in SOS (.563 to .550) and RRO (4-5 to 3-6), plus the head to head tiebreaker (NCC won 2 of 3). I'd argue it's enough to push them past the Titans, but if they weigh win percentage that much higher the Titans could get to the table first.

[kiko]

One thing is for certain re NCC and IWU. If only one gets in, it will be NCC.
However, I'm sensing the CCIW will be a 3 bid conference this year. 🏀 🏀 🏀

While I hope you are right, I don't know that I would take that to the bank.

Illinois Wesleyan has stronger credentials on overall winning percentage, while North Central is stronger on the other three primary criteria.  In each case, the difference is not gaping, but the Cardinals' overall winning percentage could cause them to face some headwinds.

If the regional committee or the selection committee leans more heavily into winning percentage, the Titans could easily be sit higher than the Cardinals in the pecking order.  I hope they aren't, but it is certainly possible.

19-8 vs 19-7 is that big of a difference?!

19-7: .731
19-8: .704

27 percentage points is a lot, but the Cardinals have the advantage in SOS (.563 to .550) and RRO (4-5 to 3-6), plus the head to head tiebreaker (NCC won 2 of 3). I'd argue it's enough to push them past the Titans, but if they weigh win percentage that much higher the Titans could get to the table first.

North Central is 18-8 in the eyes of the committee, as the win over Robert Morris was a non-D3 game. And yes, if the committee had prioritizes Win Your Games more than other criteria, it may make a difference. The potential fly in the ointment for North Central is that their winning percentage is below .700 while the Titans' is above that level. This has historically been something of a line of demarcation, and could make the regional committee lean more into the Titans.  Absent treating this as a floor of sorts, North Central should be ranked higher. 

[lmitzel]

One thing is for certain re NCC and IWU. If only one gets in, it will be NCC.
However, I'm sensing the CCIW will be a 3 bid conference this year. 🏀 🏀 🏀

While I hope you are right, I don't know that I would take that to the bank.

Illinois Wesleyan has stronger credentials on overall winning percentage, while North Central is stronger on the other three primary criteria.  In each case, the difference is not gaping, but the Cardinals' overall winning percentage could cause them to face some headwinds.

If the regional committee or the selection committee leans more heavily into winning percentage, the Titans could easily be sit higher than the Cardinals in the pecking order.  I hope they aren't, but it is certainly possible.

19-8 vs 19-7 is that big of a difference?!

19-7: .731
19-8: .704

27 percentage points is a lot, but the Cardinals have the advantage in SOS (.563 to .550) and RRO (4-5 to 3-6), plus the head to head tiebreaker (NCC won 2 of 3). I'd argue it's enough to push them past the Titans, but if they weigh win percentage that much higher the Titans could get to the table first.

North Central is 18-8 in the eyes of the committee, as the win over Robert Morris was a non-D3 game. And yes, if the committee had prioritizes Win Your Games more than other criteria, it may make a difference. The potential fly in the ointment for North Central is that their winning percentage is below .700 while the Titans' is above that level. This has historically been something of a line of demarcation, and could make the regional committee lean more into the Titans.  Absent treating this as a floor of sorts, North Central should be ranked higher.

I keep forgetting about the Robert Morris game not counting in the primary criteria... *facepalm*

Yeah, that makes the win percentage disparity even greater (.731 to .692, a 39 point gap).

[Greek Tragedy]

I don't understand how you think that's a large gap. It's a one win difference. It can't get much closer than that. And as you pointed out, NCC has the advantage in 3 other categories.

[Gregory Sager]

Augustana hosts a pod, and will take on Greenville. Augsburg vs. Hope is the other game in Rock Island.