MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[iwumichigander]

If there's such a thing as a "quiet" 49 points, that was Aston's night tonight.

There was nothing at all quiet about the last twelve of them.

Oh boy, this great!
I just love a good argument.

There was nothing at all quiet about the last twelve of them. But....................I think the first twelve he made counted for just as many points. So maybe those twelve truly made just as much noise?  🤷‍♂️

Nolan Ebel and Aston Francis are both incredibly talented players.
One big difference is Ebel has a lot more help. Francis is basically out there on an island. There is usually a deep chasm between Francis and whoever is Wheaton's #2 on any particular night.
The question then becomes——> Is the MOP the guy that does more with little help, or the guy who shines brightest amidst the many other jewels in the display case?

which is the crux of the argument.  If you switch players with the respective teams...

Ebel would stand out on Wheaton as he would be their best player on the floor.  Could he get the other four more productive than Francis? Probably but could they win?

Put Francis on Augie and he does not need to score 30-40 points but Augie becomes a harder out and likely has a better path to winning a final four.

[Smitty Oom]

Aston Francis shot the ball 33 times tonight.  Nolan Ebel shot it 10 times.  It is an apples and oranges comparison.

It can't be "apples and oranges" if you have to choose one over the other for MOP. You either have to decide on an apple or an orange. I -- and it looks like most everybody else -- think it's pretty clearly the orange that is the CCIW's top fruit.

Well Greg, I know Crishawn is a great player and a first team CCIW type of player, but I think the CCIW MOP will either be Nolan Ebel or Aston Francis.

I personally think it should be Francis, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Nolan may have a couple accolades coming his way in late March.

[Gregory Sager]

Aston Francis shot the ball 33 times tonight.  Nolan Ebel shot it 10 times.  It is an apples and oranges comparison.

It can't be "apples and oranges" if you have to choose one over the other for MOP. You either have to decide on an apple or an orange. I -- and it looks like most everybody else -- think it's pretty clearly the orange that is the CCIW's top fruit.

Well Greg, I know Crishawn is a great player and a first team CCIW type of player, but I think the CCIW MOP will either be Nolan Ebel or Aston Francis.

I knew someone was going to mention Chrishawn Orange after my post. Kudos on being the quickest on the draw, Smitty.

I personally think it will be Francis but I have a sneaking suspicion that Nolan May have a couple accolades coming his way in late March.

Who is Nolan May?

If there's such a thing as a "quiet" 49 points, that was Aston's night tonight.

There was nothing at all quiet about the last twelve of them.

Oh boy, this great!
I just love a good argument.

There was nothing at all quiet about the last twelve of them. But....................I think the first twelve he made counted for just as many points. So maybe those twelve truly made just as much noise?  🤷‍♂️

Nolan Ebel and Aston Francis are both incredibly talented players.
One big difference is Ebel has a lot more help. Francis is basically out there on an island. There is usually a deep chasm between Francis and whoever is Wheaton's #2 on any particular night.
The question then becomes——> Is the MOP the guy that does more with little help, or the guy who shines brightest amidst the many other jewels in the display case?

which is the crux of the argument.  If you switch players with the respective teams...

Ebel would stand out on Wheaton as he would be their best player on the floor.  Could he get the other four more productive than Francis? Probably but could they win?

Put Francis on Augie and he does not need to score 30-40 points but Augie becomes a harder out and likely has a better path to winning a final four.

I would agree with that assessment, except that I'd word your second sentence a little differently. Wheaton's other players would have to be more productive with Ebel as a teammate rather than Francis, because Ebel can't do all of the things that Francis can do. That's not a slam on Ebel, of course. Lest anyone think that I've been dissing Ebel all night, let me just state for the record that, although it almost certainly won't happen, there are four CCIW guards who really ought to be named to Pat's All-American team this season, and Ebel is definitely one of them. (Pat's probably rolling his eyes at my parochial attitude right now. ) It's just that Wheaton occasionally gets caught playing four-man-stand-around on offense because Francis's talent is so overpowering. Mike Schauer alluded to it again in his postgame interview when talking about Wheaton's offensive rough spots in the first half.

In other words, Ebel's a great creator, but the other Wheaton players would have to take on much more of a production role by necessity, anyway.

[Titan Q]

Per Massey, IWU has played the toughest schedule of any of the 400+ teams in NCAA Division III.

https://www.masseyratings.com/cb2019/ncaa-d3/ratings

[AndOne]

Per Massey, IWU has played the toughest schedule of any of the 400+ teams in NCAA Division III.

https://www.masseyratings.com/cb2019/ncaa-d3/ratings

It's impressive that they have challenged themselves in such a competitive manner. However, with 7 losses, they have put themselves in a position where it seems a couple more losses could well prevent them from receiving an invitation to the Big Dance.

[Titan Q]

Per Massey, IWU has played the toughest schedule of any of the 400+ teams in NCAA Division III.

https://www.masseyratings.com/cb2019/ncaa-d3/ratings

It's impressive that they have challenged themselves in such a competitive manner. However, with 7 losses, they have put themselves in a position where it seems a couple more losses could well prevent them from receiving an invitation to the Big Dance.

IWU pretty much has to run the table in the regular season to be competitive for a Pool C bid.

It's really not non-conference scheduling decisions that are the problem.  The Titans would be fine if they had won their home games vs Wheaton, Carroll, and NCC.  Three games they were favored in, led late, and did not close out.

In 4 of IWU's 7 losses they had a late lead:
vs Wheaton: +3, 0:17
vs Carroll: +1, 1:18
vs Whitman: +1, 0:32
vs NCC: +8 2:20, +2, 0:31

Also had chances at Augustana and vs UW-Stevens Point.

The inability to play better for 40 minutes in, and then close out, at least 3 of the games above will be what leaves the Titans at home in March (assuming they do not go on a crazy run now).  IWU's schedule has provided an elite SOS - the kind that allows you to lose 6-7 regular season games.  Just lost too many they had to win.

[Titan Q]

Floated a topic on the Top 25 board about bracketing - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4097.msg1916546#msg1916546.

Something to keep an eye on.  Gonna be hard to split all these great Central and West teams up.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Milestones, upsets, underdogs, under the radar, and giving back ... that's what's on tap for Sunday's Hoopsville.

While in the conference grind, there are always results people don't expect. Whether an upset or a team flying under the radar finally pops up on everyone's radar, there are games and teams worth paying attention to outside the usual suspects. But even the top teams in the country have a story to tell.

On Sunday's episode, we will learn what it's like to be on the top team in the country, how a team can still fly under the radar with big results in on a difficult conference, how another team has emerged that no one was expecting on top of another competitive conference, how one of the top conferences in the county ticks and how the races there may turn out, and the importance of giving back to the community especially in honor of one of the country's greatest leaders.

Hoopsville is presented by D3hoops.com and airs from the WBCA/NABC Studio. Sunday's show will air live starting at 7:00 p.m. ET here: http://bit.ly/2HoPIZf (and simulcast on Facebook Live and Periscope).

Oh ... and the show is definitely going to see some "overtime" tonight.

If you have questions about Division III basketball, feel free to send them and we will answer them on a the show. Email them to hoopsville@d3hoops.com or use any of the social media options to the right.

Guests Schedule (order subject to change):
- Hillary Scott, No. 17 Lynchburg men's coach
- Joe Crispin, Rowan men's coach
- Tim McDonald, Cabrini men's coach (NABC Coach's Corner)
- Chris Martin, CCIW Commissioner
- Abby Kelly, No. 1 Bowdoin senior guard
- Ryan Scott, D3hoops.com lead columnist (Top 25 Double-Take)

If you enjoy the show via the podcasts, choose your favorite avenue to listen and/or subscribe via the the following four avenues (click on the images when necessary):
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[Yogao]

Per Massey, IWU has played the toughest schedule of any of the 400+ teams in NCAA Division III.

https://www.masseyratings.com/cb2019/ncaa-d3/ratings

It's impressive that they have challenged themselves in such a competitive manner. However, with 7 losses, they have put themselves in a position where it seems a couple more losses could well prevent them from receiving an invitation to the Big Dance.

If you look at the SOS for CCIW teams in general, it's pretty impressive especially for it being somewhat of a down year for the CCIW teams.

SOS for CCIW teams:
IWU: 1
Elmhurst: 3
Wheaton: 6
Augie: 8
NPU: 24

[Titan Q]

Here are the SOS numbers that matter - https://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-regional-rankings.html.  (As compiled by Matt Snyder.)

-Carroll: 0.598
-Elmhurst: 0.595
-Illinois Wesleyan: 0.587
-Wheaton: 0.579
-Carthage: 0.563
-North Park: 0.547
-Augustana: 0.547
-Millikin: 0.535
-North Central: 0.521

For context, the 21 Pool C's from last year are below (my best guess on the order).  Typically a Pool candidate wants to have about a 0.530+.  About 0.560+ seems to be pretty elite.

1. Hamilton (NE/NESCAC): .846 (22-4)/.573/6-3 
2. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .778 (21-6)/.590/8-4   
3. UW-Platteville (CE/WIAC: .833 (20-4)/.577/4-1   
4. Whitman (WE/NWC): .962 (25-1)/.515/4-1
5. Swarthmore (MA/CC): .815 (22-5)/.542/3-4   
6. St. John's (WE/MIAC): .880 (22-3)/.524/3-2 
7. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC): .760 (19-6).590/4-6   
8. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .778 (21-6)/.565/4-3
9. Marietta (GL/OAC): .778 (21-6)/.564/4-5   
10. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .731 (19-7)/.567/6-4   
11. Emory (SO/UAA): .840 (21-4)/.530/4-2 
12. Christopher Newport (MA/CAC): .777 (21-6)/.546/3-2   
13. UW-Oshkosh (CE/WIAC): .741 (20-7)/.554/2-4   
14. St. Olaf (WE/MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2   
15. Albright (MA/Commonwealth): .769 (20-6)/.544/3-2   
16. Franklin and Marshall (MA/CC): .769 (20-6)/.536/3-4 
17. North Central (CE/CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.563/4-5   
18. Illinois Wesleyan (CE/CCIW): .731 (19-7)/.550/3-6 
19. Springfield (NE/NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2 
20. LeTourneau (SO/ASC): .852 (23-4)/.511/2-2
21. Brockport (E/SUNYAC): .731/.529/3-3

[kiko]

Today's Sunday Special:
Millikin 89, Carthage 79 in Decatur

This actually has some notable implications for the conference tournament, as the bottom three are now all 2-7 and a full two games behind numbers 5/6 Illinois Wesleyan and Millikin.

[Gregory Sager]

I noticed the same thing, Kiko. And a pretty clear line of demarcation seems to have emerged between the top six and the bottom three since Preston Laketa vanished into the ether and Carthage went into the tailspin that's seen the Red Men lose five of six since New Year's Day.

Within the last eight days the Red Men came within an eyelash of upsetting Augie at Carver and managed to hang around with North Central in the airplane hangar for forty minutes, but they've now been swept by a Big Blue team that will very likely be the team clinging to sixth place. The H2H tiebreaker for the Decaturites over Carthage looms big; it's essentially the same thing as Millikin having an extra game in hand in the standings over the Red Men.

[kiko]

I noticed the same thing, Kiko. And a pretty clear line of demarcation seems to have emerged between the top six and the bottom three since Preston Laketa vanished into the ether and Carthage went into the tailspin that's seen the Red Men lose five of six since New Year's Day.

Within the last eight days the Red Men came within an eyelash of upsetting Augie at Carver and managed to hang around with North Central in the airplane hangar for forty minutes, but they've now been swept by a Big Blue team that will very likely be the team clinging to sixth place. The H2H tiebreaker for the Decaturites over Carthage looms big; it's essentially the same thing as Millikin having an extra game in hand in the standings over the Red Men.

That makes sense if the Big Blue finish as number six, but IMO it is too early to lock them into that slot.  Millikin travels to Faganel next Saturday, and while road wins are not easy, I could see them potentially jumping the Jays in the end if they win that contest.  Elmhurst beat Carthage in the first meeting but the second leg is still to come, so if there is an Elmhurst/Carthage tie, the tiebreaker is still undecided.  That said, it is probably an academic discussion as the Reds would need a serious turnaround if they are to pull out of the free fall they are in at present.

[Mr. Ypsi]

New poll is out.  NebWes is still unanimously #1, but Augie has solidified their #2 spot, rising from 580 to 591 points (I would assume they got them all from Williams).  NCC doubled their points total to 42, and is now tied for 2nd place in the ORV category.  Wheaton fell from 11 to 6 points.  IWU's 7th loss was finally too much for the last hold-outs, as they were shut out of the voting.  (I would have probably already dropped them last week, but some combination of powerhouse reputation and having THE toughest SOS in D3 kept from 1-4 voters listing them on the ballot.)

[markerickson]

Speaking of Millikin, after watching the Big Blue defeat North Park on the road in an unsightly game, I am not sure if NP's defense or offense is worse.  The Vikings shot 26/87 for the game and seemed completely lost trying to guard Zach Fisher, the game's leading scorer, around the perimeter...just like other games.

On a positive note, Viking Matt Szuba had 10 rebounds, blocked four shots, passed the ball very well, and hustled mightily throughout the frustrating game.