MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Titan Q]

On IWU's status if the Titans win out (vs Elmhurst, vs North Park, at Carroll) and 2-1 in the CCIW tourney, @d3bubble says...


"In that scenario, I would have IWU squarely on the bubble.  Their credentials would be in the range of .679 WP, .583 SOS, .575 ncSOS, 3-8 vRRO.  Anything below .700 WP is always iffy, but the SOS would be near-elite and includes some quality wins."

I can't see that happening at all, especially in an environment in which the SOS/W% comparison formula has been taken off of the table by the NCAA. The days of a UW-Oshkosh riding a W% miles below .700 into the tourney on the strength of a high SOS appear to be over. And the "quality wins" that IWU would have, if indeed they would even end up totaling three RRO, would consist of victories over teams at the bottom of the Central Region rankings, with the possible exception of NCC. I think that IWU fans are living in a dreamworld if they believe that they have a shot at a Pool C berth. Heck, it appears that Wheaton is teetering dangerously on the fringe of the Pool C bubble at this point.

I just posted a quote from a guy who does a lot of Pool C analysis. 

I don't think there are any dreamworlds going on.  Haven't yet heard an IWU fan talk about having a reasonable chance at Pool C.

[Gregory Sager]

I know that. And I highly respect Drew's analytical abilities with regard to Pool C. Heck, sometimes I feel as though I spend half my time endorsing him on d3boards.com. I just don't understand at all where he's coming from on this one.

And the "dreamworld" comment wasn't aimed at you, Bob. It was aimed at ... well, let's just say that the potential dreamworlders who post here shall remain nameless.

[Titan Q]

I know that. And I highly respect Drew's analytical abilities with regard to Pool C. Heck, sometimes I feel as though I spend half my time endorsing him on d3boards.com. I just don't understand at all where he's coming from on this one.

And the "dreamworld" comment wasn't aimed at you, Bob. It was aimed at ... well, let's just say that the potential dreamworlders who post here shall remain nameless.

Drew, if you see this and have the time, can you post here what the end of the bubble would look like in that IWU wins out and goes 2-1 in CCIW tourney scenario. I'd love to see what those hypothetical resumes look like to see where you are coming from.

Thanks.

[Gregory Sager]

Yes, I'd certainly like to see that, too.

[UWO Titan 78]

If Oshkosh wins out (beating UWSP and LAX) and then goes on to win the AQ, that could very well mean that the WIAC only gets one team in the tournament. I would think that would open a spot for a potential third team from the CCIW.

[Gregory Sager]

That's not a given, though. It might get a third CCIW team a Pool C spot. But it also might only mean that a third CCIW team merely reaches the table, which is not the same thing as actually getting in.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I know that. And I highly respect Drew's analytical abilities with regard to Pool C. Heck, sometimes I feel as though I spend half my time endorsing him on d3boards.com. I just don't understand at all where he's coming from on this one.

And the "dreamworld" comment wasn't aimed at you, Bob. It was aimed at ... well, let's just say that the potential dreamworlders who post here shall remain nameless.

iwu70 (Mark) and Mr. Ypsi (Chuck) are both known by name to all regulars here; the only problem with your insinuation is that we have both posted that the ONLY way for the Titans to get in is to win the AQ.

[Titan Q]

I know that. And I highly respect Drew's analytical abilities with regard to Pool C. Heck, sometimes I feel as though I spend half my time endorsing him on d3boards.com. I just don't understand at all where he's coming from on this one.

And the "dreamworld" comment wasn't aimed at you, Bob. It was aimed at ... well, let's just say that the potential dreamworlders who post here shall remain nameless.

iwu70 (Mark) and Mr. Ypsi (Chuck) are both known by name to all regulars here; the only problem with your insinuation is that we have both posted that the ONLY way for the Titans to get in is to win the AQ.

Correct.  These two have both been pretty clear about that.

[Gregory Sager]

And my point is that their stance could've done a 180-degree turn on a dime, given Drew's universally recognized credibility on the subject.

[fantastic50]

I know that. And I highly respect Drew's analytical abilities with regard to Pool C. Heck, sometimes I feel as though I spend half my time endorsing him on d3boards.com. I just don't understand at all where he's coming from on this one.

And the "dreamworld" comment wasn't aimed at you, Bob. It was aimed at ... well, let's just say that the potential dreamworlders who post here shall remain nameless.

Drew, if you see this and have the time, can you post here what the end of the bubble would look like in that IWU wins out and goes 2-1 in CCIW tourney scenario. I'd love to see what those hypothetical resumes look like to see where you are coming from.

Thanks.

Unfortunately, I don't have a good way to show that.  What I did was run 200 sims in which IWU was guaranteed to win out except for losing the CCIW final, while all other games were simulated normally, then run all the SOS, vRRO, etc. & mock selections each time (which include some randomness about the committee values & how it evaluates each team).

While I understand that the 2 wins = .030 SOS equivalency is gone, I don't yet see evidence that the relative value of WP & SOS has changed much.  My ranking predictions would have been more accurate (especially in the GL) if I had taken the numbers straight from the computer, instead of manually adjusting for head-to-head.

I made two formula changes last week based on the committee chair's Hoopsville interview, & one more last night after seeing the first regional rankings:
1) adding a correction that deflates SOS values above .550, and severely so for SOS above .600 (i.e. .610 isn't much better than .600)
2) removing the progressive penalty for SOS < .510 (a low SOS still hurts, it just isn't doubly bad)
3) cutting by half the progressive penalty for WP < .700 (based on some low WP teams getting ranked yesterday)

[Titan Q]

The other thing to keep in mind is that for IWU to complete that scenario (win out in the regular season, then go 2-1 in the tournament), they'd almost certainly have to beat Augustana in the CCIW tournament semifinals (Friday).

So it would go something like...

Tuesday
#3-Wheaton vs #6-Carroll

#4-Illinois Wesleyan vs #5-Elmhurst

Friday
#1-Augustana vs #4-Illinois Wesleyan

#2-North Central vs #3-Wheaton

The only way that Friday pairing could change is if Carroll beat Wheaton (at King Arena).  Then Carroll, as the 6-seed, would play Augie Friday. 


So, going 2-1 in the CCIW tournament would most likely require beating Augie in Rock Island.

There is a big advantage to being the #2 or #3 seed since you can avoid the tournament host until the title game (Saturday).  IWU doesn't really have a realistic path to the #2 or #3 seed.

[BobbyO]

I have no stats that back this up but as I see it

A)     Augustana wins out and tournament will be in Rock Island

B)     Wheaton Beats North Central and Millikin

C)     North Central loses to Wheaton and beats Carthage and Elmhurst

D)     IWU runs the table

E)     Carroll loses to IWU but beats Elmhurst

F)     Elmhurst loses final 3

1st Seed      Augustana

2nd Seed     North Central

3rd Seed      Wheaton

4th Seed      IWU

5th Seed     Carroll

6th Seed     Elmhurst

Wheaton beats Elmhurst

IWU beats Carroll

Augustana in a close Game beats IWU

Wheaton upsets North Central

Wheaton loses to Augustana in overtime

Augustana automatic qualifier

Wheaton Poll C one of the last

North Central on the out Bad SOS and loss to Northern Ohio

Augustana will host as will UW Oshkosh hopefully in different brackets so they can meet in Fort Wayne

Nebraska WU and Whitman one will host and one gets shipped out

Now remember I am an Augie Grad so be kind.

[Mr. Ypsi]

And my point is that their stance could've done a 180-degree turn on a dime, given Drew's universally recognized credibility on the subject.

Fake news!   Mark and I both posted our resignations to AQ or bust long before Drew decided they had a C chance after all.

IF Drew is right and the Titans sneak into the tourney with a C, I'm sure Mark and I would be among the happiest people on the planet.  We would also be among the most shocked!

[thunder38]

I have no stats that back this up but as I see it

A)     Augustana wins out and tournament will be in Rock Island

B)     Wheaton Beats North Central and Millikin

C)     North Central loses to Wheaton and beats Carthage and Elmhurst

D)     IWU runs the table

E)     Carroll loses to IWU but beats Elmhurst

F)     Elmhurst loses final 3

1st Seed      Augustana

2nd Seed     North Central

3rd Seed      Wheaton

4th Seed      IWU

5th Seed     Carroll

6th Seed     Elmhurst

Wheaton beats Elmhurst

IWU beats Carroll

Augustana in a close Game beats IWU

Wheaton upsets North Central

Wheaton loses to Augustana in overtime

Augustana automatic qualifier

Wheaton Poll C one of the last

North Central on the out Bad SOS and loss to Northern Ohio

Augustana will host as will UW Oshkosh hopefully in different brackets so they can meet in Fort Wayne

Nebraska WU and Whitman one will host and one gets shipped out

Now remember I am an Augie Grad so be kind.

It's worth remembering that UW-Oshkosh sits atop the region in both the men's and women's regional rankings so depending on who has the priority this year, one of those Titan teams will be hitting the road as a top-ranked team.

[Pat Coleman]

Women have priority in the first weekend in odd-numbered years.