MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Gregory Sager]

Bob Quillman had a model for teams winning the conference which is: win your home games and over half your road games and you usually win the league. +1 for a road victory and -1 for a home loss ( zero for a road or home win). +4 wins the league most years. Here is the standings:

Carthage +3
Wheaton +2
NPU +1
IWU +1
NCC 0
Elmhurst -1
Augie -1
Carroll -1
Millikin -4

The concept long predates Bob in CCIW World. Bob's the first one who measured out the concept with a scored model using a plus/minus formula.

The actual model used for goal-setting purposes by CCIW men's basketball coaches has been spelled out this way for as long as I can remember:

1) Win all of your home games;

2) beat the lower half of the league on the road;

This will make you at least a competitor for the league title. In Bob's scored model, a +4 works out to a 12-4 (.750) CCIW record; however, a 12-4 (.750) record is rarely good enough to win the CCIW. Not counting the COVID season, in the 75 years of full-schedule (double round-robin) CCIW play, a .750 league winning percentage has only been good enough to win the title seven times.

3) and steal as many road games against the top half of the league as you can.

It's #3 that often determines who wins the league and who finishes second, third, or even fourth.

4) For every loss of a home game or a lower-half-of-the-league road game, then one of the four games in the #3 category stops being optional and becomes mandatory.

The virtue of Bob's scored model is that it works on a present-moment basis, since, obviously, you can't necessarily tell who is a first-division team and who is a second-division team while the season is in progress ... although the chances of Augustana, Carroll, and/or Millikin working their way up into the first division this season are not mathematically promising.

[Gregory Sager]

IWU has a crucial patch now -- 4 games in six days, including the two re-scheduled games on the West Coast.  If they can go 4-0 in this stretch it will be herculean. . .  with all the travel etc.   Linfield and George Fox in Oregon, then back to CCIW play.  Key first game is to win at home vs. 5-2 NPU.

'70

Sager would know best, but it doesn't seem NPU is playing up to its full capabilities at present. Accordingly, I see a IWU victory on Wed.

Massey, for what it's worth, has IWU as a favorite by a pretty wide margin: 76-67, with the Titans rated as 77% likely to win and NPU as only 23%.

The Vikings are not playing consistent ball at all. They've been on a winning-every-other-game pattern since their buzzer-beater loss to St. Mary's (MN). Some of that is tougher competition, but a lot of it is just plain bad basketball for longer stretches of games than the Vikings can afford. Against Elmhurst, for example, they faltered at times because they didn't collectively have their heads in a game that was a very fierce and jaw-wagging contest of wills. Against Carthage they made bad decisions with the ball for all forty minutes and for the opening chunk of the first half they didn't recover well and thus got beat by being unable to close out on Firebirds shooters. And against Carroll they shot so poorly that they couldn't have hit water if they were leaning over the side of a canoe.

This surprises me, because I figured that once the Vikings became accustomed to playing together as a team -- remember, only four members of the ten-man rotation were wearing North Park livery last season -- they would get incrementally better as the season went along. That hasn't happened. And I don't think that you can make the argument that encountering CCIW competition has been the roadblock, because the Vikings were 3-0 in league play before Christmas, with one of those three wins (the win over your Cardinals at the airplane hangar) being the best game that they've played all season.

I like this matchup on Wednesday, because I think it plays to North Park's strengths. But if the Vikes don't improve their focus and raise their caliber of play, they're gonna prove that Ken Massey's computer was right and get back on the bus with an addition to the L column.

[kiko]

3) and steal as many road games against the top half of the league as you can.

Yeah, about this:

Wednesday - North Central at Carthage

Saturday - North Central at North Park

The Sons of Warden are decidedly mid-table at the moment, with some good stretches and some I-thought-we-agreed-to-not-talk-about-that stretches against the teams above them.  This week is important in determining what trajectory they will be on as we approach February and the season's endgame.

[Next Man Up]

Playing very well Carthage is the lone conference opponent the Cardinals have yet to encounter, whereas their initial meeting with NPU resulted in being vaporized that evening by an indomitable force.
The cardinal maroon clad visitors chances will likely be appreciably enhanced should nearly point a minute scorer Mitch Lewis be able to play. Lewis, who was not yet a team member at the time of the first NPU game, was forced to miss the Cardinals win over Millikin Saturday as he was battling the flu.

[Next Man Up]

Final

NPU. 74
IWU  70

[kiko]

Tonight:

Augustana 86, Elmhurst 67 at Carver
North Central 77, Carthage 67 at Tarble
North Park 74, Illinois Wesleyan 70 at the Shirk
Wheaton 71, Carroll 58 at Van Male

Millikin was presumably enjoying the nightlife in Decatur.

[Gregory Sager]

Final from Blo-No:

North Park 74
Illinois Wesleyan 70

Jalen Boyd: 22 pts (5-7 trey)
Kolden Vanlandingham: 17 pts
Shamar Pumphrey: 13 pts, 8 rebs, 6:2 a:to, 5 stls
Jordan Boyd: 13 pts

Cody Mitchell: 22 pts, 11 rebs
Ryan Sroka: 12 pts, 5:2 a:to
Hakim Williams: 10 pts

Can't wait to get home and watch this one once IWU archives it for on-demand viewing.

Big road win for the Vikes, and with Carthage's home loss to NCC this propels NPU into sole possession of second place at the clubhouse turn in the CCIW sked.

[kiko]

North Central 77, Carthage 67

The Cardinals took the lead in this one midway through the first half and held it through the final whistle in Kenosha.  The margin was generally in the 7-10 point range for most of the second half, and Carthage never got closer than four.

From the cheap seats, I thought the Sons of Warden played well but not out-of-their-minds well in this one, and while I have not seen the Firebirds play this year, I have to presume from their record that this was not one of their better outings.  Julian Campbell had just two points in 14 minutes and from the looks of things that is well below what Carthage can usually rely on him for off the bench.

The statline shows that Carthage outshot North Central from beyond and inside the arc, but that is the product of some stronger shooting by the Firebirds in the game's final minutes.  Of note for North Central - Anthony Figueroa significantly shortened his rotation in this one, as only nine players saw minutes, with two of those players seeing 7 and 3 minutes of game action, respectively.  I personally like this development, but I'm just a crank with an internet connection, so what do I know.

North Central:
Matt Helwig 21 and 6
Mitch Lewis 20 and 7
Shea Cupples 13 and 5
Ethan Helwig 11

Carthage:
Antuan Nesbitt 19
Fillip Bulatovic 13 and 9
Tanner Lamb 11
AJ Johnson 10 and 5

[iwu70]

Tight, close game at The Shirk, NPU over IWU 74-70.  Basically a one possession game.  Two good teams blow-for-blow, fighting it out.  The Vikings' quickness a big factor in this one.  IWU slightly winning the rebounding line.  Titans again having some issues defending the perimeter and NPU making them pay, basically winning this one with better trey shooting.  Tough defense by both teams, up close and personal, so things got a bit chippy at points.  I think three Ts. 

Hats off to NPU for winning an important game on the road.  They are quick, much improved, and tonight at least, shooting the three with a high percentage.

IWU'70

[Next Man Up]

Tonight:

Augustana 86, Elmhurst 67 at Carver
North Central 77, Carthage 67 at Tarble
North Park 74, Illinois Wesleyan 70 at the Shirk
Wheaton 71, Carroll 58 at Van Male

Millikin was presumably enjoying the nightlife in Decatur.

Road wins in 3 out of tonight's 4 games.
Wheaton was the only conference team favored to win tonight by Massey that did so.

[lmitzel]

Standings at the turn:

WHE	7-1
NPU	6-2
CAR	5-3
IWU	5-3
NCC	5-3
AUG	3-5
ELM	3-5
MIL	1-7
CRL	1-7

That's a pretty good top five.

[Gregory Sager]

I'd say it's a pretty good top six.

(Of course, I have absolutely no explanation for what happened to Elmhurst tonight in Rock Island. But I suspect that it was just one of those things, a la Carthage at Carroll a few weeks ago.)

[kenoshamark]

Couple observations from being at the Carthage game tonight.

*.  The game turned as soon as Lewis came in the game.  He hit a number of nice jump shots and Campbell just couldn't guard him (part of the reason for lack of minutes)
*.  Bulatovic had a poor game tonight.  He didn't score in the first half and the majority of his shots were taken off balance.  He did end up in double figures, but not a great game.
*.  NC went 25 for 28 from the FT line vs. 9 for 15 for Carthage.  Hard to overcome that advantage and efficiency.
*.  Carthage cut the lead to 4 twice in the second half, but couldn't get a big stop to get it down to one possession.
*.  Nesbitt started out hot with I think the first 8 points and then didn't really get going again until middle of second half.  Not flashy, but a real nice player who is provides good defense, scoring and very unselfish play.

[Next Man Up]

Standings at the turn:

WHE	7-1
NPU	6-2
CAR	5-3
IWU	5-3
NCC	5-3
AUG	3-5
ELM	3-5
MIL	1-7
CRL	1-7

That's a pretty good top five.

I'd say it's a pretty good top six.

Or seven since two teams are tied for sixth? 

[lmitzel]

Standings at the turn:

WHE	7-1
NPU	6-2
CAR	5-3
IWU	5-3
NCC	5-3
AUG	3-5
ELM	3-5
MIL	1-7
CRL	1-7

That's a pretty good top five.

I'd say it's a pretty good top six.

Or seven since two teams are tied for sixth? 

Guess it depends what you think of Augie and Elmhurst, I guess?

*.  The game turned as soon as Lewis came in the game.  He hit a number of nice jump shots and Campbell just couldn't guard him (part of the reason for lack of minutes)

Yeah, he does that. If Lewis can get conditioned to be able to play more than 18-22 minutes a game... look out.