MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[USee]

I have a very strong suspicion that Wheaton, a quick team full of high-motor guys that can shoot, is going to wipe the floor with Wesleyan tomorrow in King Arena.

What's Massey say? 

[Gregory Sager]

Dave, I don't understand why you're doing
this to me ... I have the greatest
enthusiasm for the mission.

[iwu70]

I basically agree with much of Greg's assessment here about IWU this season.  Yes, poor shooting, and not a good three-point shooting team, at least so far.  And, as I've said several times, IWU has difficulty defending the three-point line, so if the opponent is quick and shoots the trey ball well, IWU will struggle.  That was the deciding factor vs. Wheaton earlier and surely vs. NPU this past week.  NPU made 13 treys.

Wheaton won by 21 earlier at The Shirk, so it's not as if they didn't "wipe the floor" with the Titans earlier.  Of course, I hope it is a closer and more competitive game this time.

As to the injuries, I don't use those as excuses . . . and only Roper has been a key one.  He was actually a big part of the defensive deficiencies earlier, so probably the Titans are better defensively with others in the starting line-up.  Wilmsen was in a boot and on limited minutes earlier.  Only Sroka and Mitchell have played pretty well, consistently.  Heflen good at times . . . but beyond that, the Titans have not lit it up. 

Ron Rose will start thinking about how to build for next season.  Only way to March now is winning the CCIW tournament, if they make it, and that is very unlikely at this point.

It looks like a 15-10 season to me.  Perhaps worse. 

IWU'70

[kiko]

Only way to March now is winning the CCIW tournament, if they make it, and that is very unlikely at this point.

Remember that six teams make the tournament.  It would take quite a collapse for the Titans to fall below both Augustana and Elmhurst, let alone the teams they are currently even with in the standings.

[Gregory Sager]

I basically agree with much of Greg's assessment here about IWU this season.  Yes, poor shooting, and not a good three-point shooting team, at least so far.  And, as I've said several times, IWU has difficulty defending the three-point line, so if the opponent is quick and shoots the trey ball well, IWU will struggle.  That was the deciding factor vs. Wheaton earlier and surely vs. NPU this past week.  NPU made 13 treys.

Wheaton won by 21 earlier at The Shirk, so it's not as if they didn't "wipe the floor" with the Titans earlier.  Of course, I hope it is a closer and more competitive game this time.

As to the injuries, I don't use those as excuses . . . and only Roper has been a key one.  He was actually a big part of the defensive deficiencies earlier, so probably the Titans are better defensively with others in the starting line-up.  Wilmsen was in a boot and on limited minutes earlier.  Only Sroka and Mitchell have played pretty well, consistently.  Heflen good at times . . . but beyond that, the Titans have not lit it up. 

Ron Rose will start thinking about how to build for next season.  Only way to March now is winning the CCIW tournament, if they make it, and that is very unlikely at this point.

It looks like a 15-10 season to me.  Perhaps worse. 

That's an honest take, Mark.

We can now have a discussion about where the CCIW coaches screwed up the most: picking IWU to win the league (and the poll tally wasn't close, either), or picking NPU to finish 7th and Carthage to finish 8th.

Everybody who reads this board knows that I've made an annual habit out of kidding the coaches about their poor track record in the preseason poll, but this year it's been an epic failure on their part. Not that I think they give the poll a second thought once they've gotten that annual obligation out of the way.

[iwu70]

kiko, yes, I know about the format . . . but I think if IWU continues to play like they have been playing, it's quite possible they won't make the CCIW tournament.  As Greg has said, they are a good team, but not a very good team . . .  hopefully, they make it and play past the end of the regular season, but I'm not very optimistic.   They've led by 5-7 late in a number of games, but couldn't finish, couldn't bring home the W.  TOs, poor shooting, bad decisions with the ball . . .  and poor defense of the three point line, all happening numerous times.  We'll see.

'70

[iwu70]

Greg, you are probably right about the coaches' poll . . . and their attitude and thinking about it all. 

NPU and Carthage have clearly played much better, over-performed . . .  Elmhurst and IWU under-performed so far. 

IWU has just never found its identity, its mojo as a team . . . and the poor shooting and poor perimeter defense just won't cut it in the CCIW top tier.  Wheaton just knew what to do, how to play in that first game, and it wasn't close.   NPU won on quickness and keeping the rebounding line close . . . and then having a stellar night from three.  Perhaps IWU will learn and give your Vikings a better game up your way.  I don't expect the Titans to win at Wheaton this weekend.

'70

[Gregory Sager]

Greg, you are probably right about the coaches' poll . . . and their attitude and thinking about it all. 

NPU and Carthage have clearly played much better, over-performed . . .  Elmhurst and IWU under-performed so far.

I can't hang Elmhurst around the collective neck of the coaches, because I, too, figured that the Bluejays would be performing much better than they have to date. That blowout loss to Augie on Wednesday was as inexplicable as it was embarrassing for Baines & Co.

[Gregory Sager]

CYA Department: My Facebook feed today contained this memory from thirteen years ago, Jan. 21, 2010:

North Park beat Elmhurst on Wednesday night, 58-53. Don't look now, but the 4-1 Vikings -- who went 0-14 in the CCIW last season and were picked in the coaches preseason poll to finish last again this season -- are tied for first place.

After lambasting Massey Ratings two days ago for predicting that the Vikings would completely collapse in the upcoming second round-robin, I'm reminded by this FB memory that there is a precedent for it actually happening. Three days after I put that post on Facebook thirteen years ago, the Vikings lost the first game of what would turn out to be a five-game losing streak. Those 2009-10 Vikings went 3-6 in league play from Jan. 21 onward and finished in fifth place at 7-7 (13-12 overall), and were therefore out of the money as far the CCIW tourney was concerned (it didn't expand to six teams until 2019).

There are differences, of course; the 2009-10 Vikings didn't exactly turn D3 on its ear before New Year's Day, as they finished non-conference play with a 6-5 record ... and none of the six teams that they beat in non-conference play ended the season with a winning record. This year Marian and Loras are two Vikings victims that are not only likely to end the season with winning records, they have legit shots at winning the NACC and the ARC, respectively. Benedictine is just under .500 at 8-9, and has a healthy 6-3 NACC record that leads me to believe that the Bennies will finish the year on the positive side of the ledger, too. So, clearly, the Vikings had a significantly better non-conference performance this year against better competition than they had in 2009-10. Also, the Vikings were utterly uncompetitive in three of the seven CCIW losses that they suffered in 2009-10; thus far this season the Vikings were very competitive in both of the losses that they've sustained in CCIW play.

The biggest difference is the roster. The 2009-10 NPU starters were PG Roshawn Russell, SGs Shaun Collins and Davone Robinson, PF Nick Williams, and C Emmanuel Crosby, with Ryan Beigie, Issa Avery, Nick Hoekstra, and Jorge Gonzalez off the bench. That's not a terrible team at all -- Williams and Crosby made the All-CCIW team, and Russell would later emerge as a star -- but overall it pales in comparison to the talent on this year's Vikings squad. So, all in all, I'm not that sold on the idea that the 2009-10 precedent means anything.

Of course, I could just be whistling past the graveyard ...

[petemcb]

I have a very strong suspicion that Wheaton, a quick team full of high-motor guys that can shoot, is going to wipe the floor with Wesleyan tomorrow in King Arena.

What's Massey say? 

+1   

[Next Man Up]

Only way to March now is winning the CCIW tournament, if they make it, and that is very unlikely at this point.

Remember that six teams make the tournament.  It would take quite a collapse for the Titans to fall below both Augustana and Elmhurst, let alone the teams they are currently even with in the standings.

CarrollBooster, don't worry . . . it happens in the CCIW.  No easy nights.   IWU is crashing down to earth too, after a good win vs. Elmhurst earlier.  Not even sure IWU will make the CCIW tournament.   1-19 from three??   Come on, man!

'70

'70,

One for 19 from three is certainly something you would think you would never see from the Mighty Titans.
I mean as a certain IWU booster always prophesied, if you wear a Titans uniform you're automatically a star,  and it's difficult to understand how a collection of such good players could ever go 1 for 19. As such, your aghast over the statistic is understandable.

However, I am quite sure that you can put your fears to bed as far as the Green Team making the conference tournament. I believe only a miracle could keep that from happening. However, short of winning the tournament, there just could be a bit of trepidation with regard to their Pool C chances. However, they'll most likely clear that hurdle as well. 

As I said before, I think it would take a miracle to prevent IWU from making the conference tournament.

[Next Man Up]

IWU has had injuries and hasn't been playing at their expected level to this point, but they are still a very good D3 team.

IWU fans have been leaning hard into that "oh, so many injuries" narrative this season, but the reality is that only one player from last season's rotation -- Nick Roper, who appeared in 25 of IWU's 30 games last year and averaged 9 minutes played per game -- has been sidelined by injury. Grant Hardy and Pryce Punkay, two other injured players whose absence has been bemoaned by Titans faithful, saw a grand total of 52 and 7 minutes of varsity floor time last season.

Obviously, IWU lost four starters from last season's team to graduation, so scads of minutes opened up this season for the Titans, and the guys named above (plus incoming freshman Nathan Boldt) were expected to grab some of them. But you can't make any assumptions about players who've seen little or no playing time in terms of their future success when they're directly thrusted into prominent roles; IWU's Harrison Wilmsen and Hakim Williams, for example, have not exactly set the world on fire this season upon being asked to play much bigger roles for the Titans. And when you have a bunch of young guys collectively being asked to step up all at once, your team thus by definition becomes a wild card -- which is one reason why I thought that the Titans were overrated going into this season, even before all of those injuries became an IWU talking point. (And I wasn't alone in thinking that, either.)

The mainstays for the Titans this season have been their rotation holdovers from 2021-22: Cody Mitchell, Ryan Sroka, and Lucas Heflen. That's what people should've been expecting. That's not to say, of course, that some guy from any generic team who played seven minutes of varsity time last year couldn't step up and become the team's star this year. That happens all the time in college hoops. But you can't bank on it happening, especially in a league this tough. The CCIW is a prove-it-to-me league -- and many IWU fans foresaw big accomplishments in 2022-23 for a whole bunch of guys who hadn't proven anything whatsoever to date at this level. I suspect that this comes from the whole "if IWU recruited him, he must be a future star" syndrome, the hubris of which never ceases to amaze me.

I thought that the Titans would be a pretty good team this year, and thus far they've been a pretty good team. Very good? Nope. Too slow -- this past Wednesday night was a classic example that the reigning mathematical formula in D3 hoops right now is (speed > size), too lacking in ball protection, and -- most oddly, given IWU's tradition of having more good shooters than anybody else in the league -- not very good when it comes to shooting. With one round-robin in the books, the Titans rank fifth in shooting percentage in CCIW play despite being by far the league's tallest and longest team (i.e., the team most likely to benefit from pounding the ball into the post for high-percentage shots), dead last in three-point shooting, and dead last in free-throw shooting. Again, these are CCIW stats, not overall stats, so nobody can argue that the dismal shooting of the Titans is reflective of the fact that they've played better overall competition than have the other eight CCIW teams. What success the Titans have had this season (8-7, 5-3) has been because of their defense.

Like I said ... pretty good team? Sure. Very good team? No way, José.

I have a very strong suspicion that Wheaton, a quick team full of high-motor guys that can shoot, is going to wipe the floor with Wesleyan tomorrow in King Arena.

Wherever did you get that idea?
If IWU recruited him, he must be certainly be a future star .
Whoever would propagate such an outlandish theory?     

[iwu70]

You guys need to let Q go . . . and focus on the realities of the teams today.  IWU is a .500 team this year, and will still struggle to make the CCIW tournament.  None of us who follow IWU closely ever say that everyone IWU recruits will be a star, esp. those guys that have given up their basketball dreams and dropped off the team this year and over the years.  There have been many.  Of course, IWU has won a few championships and been to the Sweet 16, Elite 8 and Final 4 over the years and has had many star players, including more Academic All-Americans than about any D-3 program.  So you can get used to that too.  Just say'n.

I expect Wheaton to win tonight by at least 15, maybe more.

Except for Cody Mitchell and the ever reliable Ryan Sroka, IWU just doesn't have the offensive firepower of most usual IWU teams.  And, combine that with weak defense on the perimeter, difficulties guarding especially quick teams (like NPU), the Titans will struggle.  Can they improve and have a run, yes, . . . but I doubt it will happen.  Their MO for this year is pretty well established in these first 15 or so games.

'70

[Next Man Up]

It appeared Elmhurst's Wesley Hooker is not playing today.

[Next Man Up]

North Park      79
North Central  65

Mitch Lewis had 27 points in 22 minutes for NCC.
But NPU's quickness caused an astronomical 23 NCC TOs, and that really tells the story.