MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Wildcat]

 Just wanted to say as an Elmhurst fan. Matt Helwig was absolutely brilliant in the tournament game at Elmhurst last night. He had defenders all over him and still came up with a fantastic performance. He showed a lot of people why he should have been POY this year. Congratulations to Matt on a phenomenal career at North Central. Now the Bluejays are out of the frying pan,and into the fire. Friday vs Wheaton at 7:15.

[Stertorous Thunder]

The latest regional rankings still have Wheaton, WashU and NPU in that order.  I am beginning to think that NPU has a decent chance of hosting the first round (provided they put in a bid which I assume they did).  If they win the AQ this weekend, then a really good chance.  But even if they go 1-1, Wash U and NPU could flip #2 and #3.  Drew Pasteur has WashU and NPU practically tied as the #6 and #8 Pool Cs.

Also, I believe Wash U women, currently #2 Reg 8, get preference for hosting this year.

Hosting at both Wheaton and the Crackerbox would be quite the deal.

It helped both, too, that NCC snuck into the rankings this week. Adds a pair of RRO wins to both resumes.

I don't have a solution but it seems like there needs to be a better system than the regional rankings.  With the depth in Region 7, it's not necessarily surprising that there are good teams that didn't make the list of top seven, but it's difficult to justify how nationally ranked Calvin and Trine aren't regionally ranked, while unranked Wooster, Heidelberg, Carnegie Mellon, and Wabash are.

This means that Wheaton's wins against North Central (14-11) are counted as wins against a regionally ranked opponent, but Wheaton's win against Calvin (#16, 21-4) counts for nothing.  This particular scenario isn't going to affect Wheaton at all, but there are certainly several teams out there facing discrepancies like this that will harm their chances to make the NCAA tournament.

[npbaseball40]

I am beginning to think that NPU has a decent chance of hosting the first round (provided they put in a bid which I assume they did).

Yes, we did.

Also, I believe Wash U women, currently #2 Reg 8, get preference for hosting this year.

Correct.

[TheOsprey]

The latest regional rankings still have Wheaton, WashU and NPU in that order.  I am beginning to think that NPU has a decent chance of hosting the first round (provided they put in a bid which I assume they did).  If they win the AQ this weekend, then a really good chance.  But even if they go 1-1, Wash U and NPU could flip #2 and #3.  Drew Pasteur has WashU and NPU practically tied as the #6 and #8 Pool Cs.

Also, I believe Wash U women, currently #2 Reg 8, get preference for hosting this year.

Hosting at both Wheaton and the Crackerbox would be quite the deal.

It helped both, too, that NCC snuck into the rankings this week. Adds a pair of RRO wins to both resumes.

I don't have a solution but it seems like there needs to be a better system than the regional rankings.  With the depth in Region 7, it's not necessarily surprising that there are good teams that didn't make the list of top seven, but it's difficult to justify how nationally ranked Calvin and Trine aren't regionally ranked, while unranked Wooster, Heidelberg, Carnegie Mellon, and Wabash are.

The D3Hoops.com rankings are not considered by the national selection committees.

[kiko]

Calvin and Trine have better records, but their SOS metrics and results versus RRO are three time zones away from what those other teams have in their credentials.  It's mostly not their fault, though Calvin's non-conference schedule was a little soft.  The bigger issue, though, is the collective 25-77 record (.245) of the bottom four teams in the MIAA.  When essentially one-third of your games come against teams in that realm, your SOS is going to wheeze with every breath.  Most conferences have one or maybe two of those, but not four.  As a benchmark, the bottom four in the CCIW have a .363 winning percentage, and #6 in the CCIW (Illinois Wesleyan) matches the record of #4 in the MIAA (Olivet).

Beyond this, Wooster has a H2H win over Calvin, and one of Calvin's wins was against a non-D3 opponent so they get no credit for it.  This is really a case of the region committee recognizing that (as one example) Carnegie Mellon's 15-9 in the UAA would look a lot more like Trine's 22-3 if they played that schedule.

[Stertorous Thunder]

Calvin and Trine have better records, but their SOS metrics and results versus RRO are three time zones away from what those other teams have in their credentials.

This was helpful, and I've done a little more research to better understand the system. Basically, the tournament committee wants to reward teams that deliberately seek challenging competition outside of their conference. A good team in a weak conference needs to find worthy opponents to prove that they are better than, say 14-11 North Central, even if they have an impressive-looking 23-2 record earned against cupcakes.  The eye test tells me that Calvin is better than Heidelberg or Wabash this year, but the committee doesn't share my opinion (and notably does not use the "eye test"), and has essentially stated that Calvin should have done more to prove its case through better scheduling. Since the rules are clearly spelled out and evenly implemented, I have decided that an outcome where Calvin misses the tournament is fair, even if I would consider them to be a worthy participant.

[kiko]

I expect they are next-out in that region during the most recent rankings.  And a lot of teams take losses in conference tournaments so there will be some shuffling.

To me the biggest surprise is that a marquee name like Calvin is not getting the benefit of the doubt based solely on their record.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Calvin's non-con SOS .545 is not awful, is it?  When conf play drags you from .545 to .503 - well ugh!!  The non-con schedules of your league can be part of the issue.

MIAA non-con SOS (avg is .526)

Alma .440
Kalamazoo .496
Trine .516
Olivet .533
Adrian .545
Calvin .545
Albion .556
Hope .573

CCIW non-con SOS (avg is .535 - and what the heck was Carthages non-con schedule):

Carthage .391
Elmhurst .506
Carroll .507
Millikin .519
North Park .550
Wheaton .561
Augustana .574
IWU .590
North Central .618

[Pat Coleman]

It's not entirely clear what the NCSOS on the NCAA data sheets actually measures -- last I heard, none of our data wizards in D-III basketball has been able to replicate it. What is clear, though, is that the number is pretty meaningless.

I agree with your take, but the numbers (assuming the NCAA data sheet is the source) are not helpful.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

It's not entirely clear what the NCSOS on the NCAA data sheets actually measures -- last I heard, none of our data wizards in D-III basketball has been able to replicate it. What is clear, though, is that the number is pretty meaningless.

I agree with your take, but the numbers (assuming the NCAA data sheet is the source) are not helpful.

Thanks Pat!  There I go, trusting the NCAA data sheets again 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

It's not entirely clear what the NCSOS on the NCAA data sheets actually measures -- last I heard, none of our data wizards in D-III basketball has been able to replicate it. What is clear, though, is that the number is pretty meaningless.

I agree with your take, but the numbers (assuming the NCAA data sheet is the source) are not helpful.

Thanks Pat!  There I go, trusting the NCAA data sheets again 

The non-conference SOS is NOT a measure of the records of your non-conference opponents.  It's a measure of the non-conference record of your non-conference opponents.

[mr_b]

Final from Wheaton: North Park 82, Carthage 62.  Convincing win for the Vikings this evening as they await the winner of the Wheaton-Elmhurst contest that follows.

[mr_b]

Game 2 final: Elmhurst upsets Wheaton, 76-58.  North Park will square off against Elmhurst tomorrow night for the CCIW tournament championship.

[voxelmhurst]

Hang a star on that one! What a time to turn in the best performance of the year.

[GoPerry]

Hang a star on that one! What a time to turn in the best performance of the year.

I missed the game but saw the box score.  Did Considine get injured or anything like that?  I can't believe he only played 12 mins.