MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[CarrollBooster]

Got updated today on how Carroll fared yesterday in the Wisconsin Dells College tournament.  The Pio's had a split squad and two teams compete.  One team went 1-2, the other 3-0.  I believe they play another of these college summer tournaments in August, and will try to drive over and catch a few games.  Not sure if any other CCIW teams do this.  I know there were some WIAC teams, some Midwest Conference teams, some NAIA team there.

[PauldingLightUP]

IWU schedule for 2023-2024.

https://www.iwusports.com/sports/mens-basketball/schedule/2023-24

[Gregory Sager]

North Park's schedule for 2023-24 is up

NPU's non-conference foes, together with their 2022-23 records:

@ Lawrence (9-16)
Marian (15-11)
* vs. Wabash (21-8)
* @ Illinois College (25-3) or vs. Coe (16-13)
@ UW-Oshkosh (24-7)
Dominican (7-17)
Hope (20-10)
# vs. Alfred (22-7) or Heidelberg (19-8) or Central (18-7)
# vs. Alfred (22-7) or Heidelberg (19-8) or Central (18-7)

* Illinois College tourney
# Music City Classic
2023 D3 tournament participants in bold

(The Music City Classic pairings have yet to be determined by the tournament's organizers.)

This is, hands-down, the toughest non-conference slate a North Park coach has put together since Bosko Djurickovic ran the show for the Vikings. I love it! Kudos to Sean Smith on putting this gauntlet together.

If this schedule doesn't prepare the Vikings for the rigors of CCIW play, nothing will.

[iwu70]

Great schedule, Greg.  It looks more like a pre-CCIW IWU schedule.  It will be interesting to see if NPU can sustain last year's great run, great success.

Hope you are well, enjoying summer's charms.

IWU'70

[Gregory Sager]

Mark, based upon last season's finishes, North Park's non-conference schedule for 2023-24 is considerably more difficult than Illinois Wesleyan's.

[Gregory Sager]

Paul Combs has been hired as Kent Dernbach's top assistant coach at UWSP.

[WUPHF]

Because he says a non-conference schedule rather than the non-conference schedule, I think it is safe to assume he means the typical Illinois Wesleyan schedule.  Schedules are going to vary in strength from season to season, but the Titans have scheduled Top 5-10 tough for the past few seasons and beyond.

Besides, I am not sure most people would agree that the Parkers schedule looks considerably better at this point, but as with so many conversations on the CCIW thread, it all depends on how you define considerably, significant, Augustana medical school and so on.

I am also not sure why we would base the comparison on 2022-2023 finishes, but I am open to the possibility that this is the best approach.

[Gregory Sager]

Because he says a non-conference schedule rather than the non-conference schedule, I think it is safe to assume he means the typical Illinois Wesleyan schedule.  Schedules are going to vary in strength from season to season, but the Titans have scheduled Top 5-10 tough for the past few seasons and beyond.

That's not in dispute. What I'm saying -- and, yes, I freely admit that it was meant to counter Mark's cheerleading -- is that this coming season the shoe is on the other foot.

Besides, I am not sure most people would agree that the Parkers schedule looks considerably better at this point, but as with so many conversations on the CCIW thread, it all depends on how you define considerably, significant, Augustana medical school and so on.

I feel pretty certain that most people will agree with my use of the adjective "considerably". To wit:

* Illinois Wesleyan's 2023-24 non-con opponents and possible opponents had a combined 2022-23 record of 146-118 (.553)
* North Park's 2023-24 non-con opponents and possible opponents had a combined 2022-23 record of 196-107 (.647)

* Illinois Wesleyan's 2023-24 non-con opponents and possible opponents include two 2023 D3 tournament teams (Mary Hardin-Baylor and Wash U)
* North Park's 2023-24 non-con opponents and possible opponents include five 2023 D3 tournament teams (Wabash, Illinois College, Coe, UW-Oshkosh, and Hope)
(The Vikings will end up playing four of the five, since IC and Coe will face each other in the first round of the IC tourney.)

I am also not sure why we would base the comparison on 2022-2023 finishes, but I am open to the possibility that this is the best approach.

It's basically the approach everybody uses when judging next season's SOS at this point in the calendar. We're all aware that a program's fortunes typically rise and fall each season, which is why I was careful to say "based upon last season's finishes" -- but it's the only reliable (or even quasi-reliable) barometer that we have. And it's the reason why Bob is trumpeting the 2023-24 non-con slate of the Titans on Twitter, because a cumulative 146-118 (.553) last-season mark for your non-con opponents isn't bad at all.

We could fine-toothed-comb it and break down each of NPU's and IWU's non-con opponents next season to the minutiae of combined-returning-player stats, but that lengthy exercise would be suspect inasmuch as it disregards incoming players (especially transfers) and possible Covid-year returnees.

[WUPHF]

I would be surprise if many or most people on the d3boards would judge non-conference schedules in such a way.

I might counter by suggesting that only one or two teams North Park has on the schedule would have qualified for an at-large bid.  Illinois Wesleyan will play two.

I say might because I am not convinced that either support the notion that one has a considerably greater SOS.

[WUPHF]

I do not have time to take a close look but the Titans have a very good schedule. 

Ohio Wesleyan, Wittenberg, Marietta, Redlands, Stevens Point in addition to the two teams you mention.

I'll be surprised if this is not a Top 10-25 schedule.

[Gregory Sager]

I would be surprise if many or most people on the d3boards would judge non-conference schedules in such a way.

In what way do you think that they judge them?

I might counter by suggesting that only one or two teams North Park has on the schedule would have qualified for an at-large bid.  Illinois Wesleyan will play two.

That's a pretty skimpy argument that cherry-picks even more than the five-versus-two point that I made about 2023 D3 tourney teams. It only highlights two games per team. Since they're playing nine apiece, it makes more sense to look at a broader canvas when making overall comparisons.

Put another way, North Park will play two teams that had losing records last season. Illinois Wesleyan will play four.

Or, how's this? NPU will play somewhere from three to five opponents who won 20 games last season. Illinois Wesleyan will play two.

NPU will play either five or six teams that won two-thirds of their games last season. IWU will play either two or three teams that hit .667 in 2022-23.

I say might because I am not convinced that either support the notion that one has a considerably greater SOS.

I don't see how in the world you can say that 94 percentage points doesn't qualify as "considerably greater."

I do not have time to take a close look but the Titans have a very good schedule.

It's pretty good. I wouldn't say it's very good. In other words, I see you in the adjectival poker game, and I raise you.  

Ohio Wesleyan, Wittenberg, Marietta, Redlands, Stevens Point in addition to the two teams you mention.

Your brand bias is showing. Wittenberg has been a .500 team over the past couple of seasons, and UWSP has been way underwater over the same period.

I'll be surprised if this is not a Top 10-25 schedule.

Who knows? I've been careful not to say that NPU has the toughest non-con schedule in D3, because I haven't examined them all. I suppose that I could do a comprehensive study of all 416 non-con schedules, but I would like to touch grass sometime this summer.

[WUPHF]

I am not interested in the W/L record either as I need to see the records in context.  Massey might help.  Both teams are going to play opponents that may look very different next year.  This is an obvious point.

[Gregory Sager]

I am not interested in the W/L record either as I need to see the records in context.  Massey might help.

Massey?

Both teams are going to play opponents that may look very different next year.  This is an obvious point.

Of course. Again:

Mark, based upon last season's finishes

We're all aware that a program's fortunes typically rise and fall each season

[WUPHF]

We're all aware that a program's fortunes typically rise and fall each season

Then how do you square this with the I can make definitive statements based on simple win/loss records and postseason results from a season ago approach?  Or more specifically, how can you use these two metrics to suggest that North Park has a considerably more difficult schedule?  Rhetorical questions.  I am know I am not going to change your mind.

[Gregory Sager]

Because they're empirical definitive statements, not scientific definitive statements, the latter category of which does not lend itself to examining upcoming basketball schedules. In epistemological terms you couldn't even make a statement of that type if you were comparing, say, a D1 team's upcoming schedule with a D3 team's upcoming schedule. Yes, the chances that the D3 team's schedule would consist of better teams in the end than those played by the D1 team are so vanishingly small that the empirical definitive statement that the D1 team's upcoming schedule is tougher is asymptotic. But, nevertheless, to quote that noted scholar Lloyd Christmas: