MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Wow, rough.  Glad to hear everyone was ok.

[79jaybird]

From earlier poster "I don't think Augie is better than Elmhurst"
As a Bluejay Alum I don't agree with this statement.  Augie is 2-0 vs. us this year and the fact is.. they played consistent and did what they had to do.  It's pretty simple, if you beat a team both home and away you're better.
I think Augie, EC, NC, IWU all have a shot at a Pool C bid if they don't win the CCIW Tournament due to how stacked the CCIW is and how every game is difficult.  I'm worried about tonight's Elm/Mill game.  Millikin allready proved they are good by upsetting us at home earlier.
I think Elmhurst lost the Augie game because A) They were inconsistent and didn't finish  layups, shots, defense lapses  B) Augie just put it together in the clutch segments of the game

[augie_superfan]

If my spreadsheet is correct, then here are the QOWI numbers before tonight's games:

Augustana             12.000
Illinois Wesleyan    10.308
North Central         10.417
Elmhurst                 8.800


If anyone has a different number, let me know because I'm sure I made a mistake somewhere.  Elmhurst is in deep trouble unless the win out to the tourney championship and then lose.  To me, that seems like their only chance at a Pool C.  Illinois Weselyan and North Central's QOWI's seem to be in a fairly good range if they keep on winning.  Just off the top of my head, I think last year's Pool C winners had QOWI's of around 10.5 and with the expanded field, that means a slightly lower number than that could be in a good range.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Elmhurst is in deep trouble unless the win out to the tourney championship and then lose.

I think they are better off winning out to the tourney championship and winning!


On another note, Augie's number is getting impressive.  Do we know the last time a team ended the season over 13 on the QOWI?  Augie's got a real chance to do it.

[Johnny Augie]

That house fire sucks for Matt.

The same thing happened to me when I was a sophomore in college.  It's good to know that everybody was ok.

[augiedad]

Here is that article that mentions the Matt Arnold situation.  Hard to imagine losing all of your possessions.  It's been a rough year for Matt.




http://www.pantagraph.com/articles/2006/02/01/sports/105406.txt

Fire hits Arnold home

IWU senior guard Matt Arnold was late for practice Tuesday, but he had a good excuse. He was buying a coat.

Arnold's campus residence at 215 W. Seminary in Bloomington was the site of a fire Tuesday. Arnold was not at home at the time of the fire but lost his possessions to the blaze. Arnold and his roommates will move to a campus dormitory.

Wesleyan senior forward Steve Schweer also had lived at the house before moving out in early January.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Can we preempt the bonehead move and acknowledge that there is a tasteless arson joke to be made here and move on without anyone having to do it seriously??

[79jaybird]

With regards to EC/NC/IWU  I think all 3 are in the same boat.  Each has had some big wins and each has had a loss (es) that they would like to forget.  The only one that I think is on a "promised" road is Augie.  I think the CCIW tournament games are also going to be a big factor in influencing the selection committee. 

[augie_superfan]

Elmhurst is in deep trouble unless the win out to the tourney championship and then lose.

I think they are better off winning out to the tourney championship and winning
!

On another note, Augie's number is getting impressive.  Do we know the last time a team ended the season over 13 on the QOWI?  Augie's got a real chance to do it.

Obviously they are better off winning the AQ...if I'm talking about QOWI numbers then obviously I'm talking about their pool C chances.

Also, Augie has a nice QOWI now but it has virtually topped out....I don't think 13 is possible.  If they win out all of their remaining games plus the conference tourney then they'd end up with about a 12.05....this assumes that all of the other teams keep their current in-region win %  To get to 13, they'd need approximately half of their 24 in-region games to count as 2 more points (i.e. a jump up a win % level).

[Mr. Ypsi]

I don't know for a fact, but I doubt any team has ever finished with a QOWI (or SOSI) over 13 - it is NEARLY a mathematical impossibility.  You'd have to win all your in-region games (at most 1 loss), and have virtually all your opponents be over .500 (and most of them over .667).  No one has a schedule like that!  But every time you beat a sub .333 team, it will require wins over 3 or 4 .667+ teams to get your average back to 13, and even ONE loss will take half a season of .667+ wins to overcome.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Augie's had quite a schedule.  Ypsi, can Augie do it?  I know you love these math problems.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Right now I'm avoiding grading the 39 remaining stat exams that I intend to return tomorrow(!), but I'd better not avoid them long enough to do the actually calculations/estimates.  I suspect that a_s is probably right that they are about as high as they can go, barring winning streaks by nearly all of their opponents.

If the question is not rendered moot by tonite's games, I may take a stab at it tomorrow evening or Friday.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I knew you couldn't resist it.

[redmen1]

Don't know much about the Thunder, can someone please tell me a little about Wheaton?

[pistol]

Just walked outside to get the mail, noticed the smell of Vicks Vapor Rub in the air. Welcome to Naperville all those old Titan fans. Cards 81, WEZZLYAN 67.