MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[kenoshamark]

Carthage scrimmages Ripon this Thursday at home (6:00) and then travels to Aurora next Friday.

[cardinalpride]

This will be my 8th season as one of Pat's Top 25 voters.  I think I am one of 2 or 3 that's been with him from the beginning of the poll. 

The preseason ballot is extremely difficult.  I know we all put a lot of work into every week's ballot, but trying to gauge things at this stage is just really tough.

My ballot, as submitted last night, is:

1 Virginia Wesleyan
2 Wooster
3 Mississippi College
4 North Central
5 Baldwin-Wallace
6 St. Thomas
7 William Paterson
8 UW-Oshkosh
9 Calvin
10 Christopher Newport
11 Maryville (Tenn.)
12 UW-La Crosse
13 Carroll
14 Lawrence
15 UW-Whitewater
16 Augustana
17 Occidental
18 Hampden-Sydney
19 Hope
20 Wittenberg
21 Lincoln
22 Ohio Northern
23 Washington U.
24 Tufts
25 Randolph-Macon

TQ, I like your style buddy.  Top 4 is a nice spot for NCC to be in!!!

[Mr. Ypsi]

Q,

I'm hoping you might elaborate on your vote a bit.  Nationally, I know almost nothing yet about who's back, etc. (except that VaWes returns nearly everyone of importance and is apt to be nearly unanimously pre-season #1), and rankings can't be done in isolation, but I was a bit surprised by the lofty perch of both CCIW teams.

NCC's big men may be as good as anyone in the country, but don't they have a whole new backcourt?  And while NO one in d3 was probably hit as hard by graduation as IWU, I thought Augie had taken a mighty big hit too.

[Titan Q]

Regarding NCC...

I am a big believer in Todd Raridon's offensive system -- every Raridon team I have ever seen (going back to Nebraska Wesleyan) has reminded me of watching a Dennie Bridges team play.  Great ball movement, great spacing, getting scorers the ball in the right spots, and a lot of easy baskets.  NCC shot .529 from the field last year and .526 the year before.  The '97 NWU team that lost to IWU in the national title game shot .528 from the field on the season:

http://www.sportsstats.com/jazzyj/past/97nwu.htm

Like Bridges, Raridon can just simply teach kids how to put the ball in the basket.

Because of how strong Raridon's system is, I think two inexperienced guards can step in and succeed.  If this were a less structured offense - like Scott Trost's, for example, where you are giving the guards a lot of freedom and asking them to make things happen - I would have more concerns about the backcourt situation.  Also, I've done a little homework on those freshmen NCC guards - they have a chance to be really good. 

And that frontline is simply one of the best in Division III.  Walton, Simmons, and Krumtinger - again, in that system they play in - are just going to dominate a lot of D3 teams this year. 

Regarding Augie...

Similiar to my comments about Raridon, Grey Giovanine simply runs a great system, built around that hard-nosed, pressure defense.  It seems like whoever the players are in the system, he gets results.  Augie the last 5 years in CCIW play:

2006: 11-3 (1st)
2005: 9-5 (4th)
2004: 10-4 (2nd)
2003: 11-3 (1st)
2002: 9-5 (2nd)

Giovanine is just simply a good coach.

I think this year's Augustana cast - even without Harrigan and McAdams-Thorton - is really good.  You have a very good senior point-guard (Drew Wessels), who is one of the best defenders in the CCIW...You have a legimate 6-9 post player (D. Swetalla) who just kept getting better last year...and you have his 6-7 brother Nate, who actually has more upside than Dain.

Augie will be fine at the 2 with the Delp/Brusveen combo and they will be big and physical at the 4 with the Rose/Rorer combo.

I don't look at it in terms of who teams lost...I try to only focus on who they have.  I will take that Wessels/Swetalla/Swetalla nucleus, and Giovanine's system, vs a lot of Top 25 teams.  And I'll take Walton/Simmons/Krumtinger, two talented but inexperienced guards, and Raridon's system vs just about anyone.

(My placement of Lawrence is similar -- they lost an All-American and a couple key guys, but it is a great program, with a great coach, a great system, and plenty of talent ready to step in.)

[wooscotsfan]

Titan Q -- Thanks for sharing your preseason Top 25 ballot and for ranking Wooster at #2.  

Acknowledging my obvious bias  , I believe that Wooster will be one of the top 5 teams nationally this year.

Wooster returns their top 5 scorers from last year's squad that went 26-4 and beat national runnerup Wittenberg in 2 out of 3 games.

The Scots actually have 8 of their top 9 players returning and the only graduation loss was Kyle Witucky at point guard.  Wooster has a very capable replacement at point in Brandon Johnson who averaged 9.5 points, 2.8 rpg, 1.6 apg while shooting 47% from the floor as a freshman last year when he served as Witucky's backup.

Wooster also might be the only team this year with 2 starters who received national honors last year.  James Cooper (19.2 ppg) was picked as a NABC 3rd Team All-American and Tom Port (15.4 ppg) who was picked as a D3Hoops 4th Team All-American.  In addition, Wooster's #3 scorer is Tim Vandervaart (14.9 ppg) who shot 66% from the floor while pulling down 9 boards/game.

How deep is Wooster?  Well, their first sub off the bench will be guard Devin Fulk who last year shot 56% from the floor, 53% on three pointers (60 of 113) and 88% from the charity stripe while averaging 9.6 ppg.  Evan Will and Marty Bidwell are two more experienced subs and they both shot over 54% from the floor last year.

Wooster also landed a couple of 6'8" big men recruits who will strengthen the Scots in the frontcourt if any opponent tries to pound the ball inside.

Wooster has the talent, experience and coaching to reach Salem this year so it will be interesting to see if they can get the job done.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Thanks, Q - I'm now convinced!

[cardinalpride]

Regarding NCC...

I am a big believer in Todd Raridon's offensive system -- every Raridon team I have ever seen (going back to Nebraska Wesleyan) has reminded me of watching a Dennie Bridges team play.  Great ball movement, great spacing, getting scorers the ball in the right spots, and a lot of easy baskets.  NCC shot .529 from the field last year and .526 the year before.  The '97 NWU team that lost to IWU in the national title game shot .528 from the field on the season:

http://www.sportsstats.com/jazzyj/past/97nwu.htm

Like Bridges, Raridon can just simply teach kids how to put the ball in the basket.

Because of how strong Raridon's system is, I think two inexperienced guards can step in and succeed.  If this were a less structured offense - like Scott Trost's, for example, where you are giving the guards a lot of freedom and asking them to make things happen - I would have more concerns about the backcourt situation.  Also, I've done a little homework on those freshmen NCC guards - they have a chance to be really good. 

And that frontline is simply one of the best in Division III.  Walton, Simmons, and Krumtinger - again, in that system they play in - are just going to dominate a lot of D3 teams this year. 

Nationally, only Whittenberg shot it better from the field at 53.5%

[Jim Matson]

Back where it all began...

[Gregory Sager]

IMO Bob ranked both North Central and Augustana too high. While I completely agree with what he said about Raridon and Giovanine, the bottom line is that neither coach will take a single dribble, make a single pass, or attempt a single shot this coming season. As always, it will come down to the players ... and I couldn't rank a team fourth in the nation in preseason that may very well be starting two freshman guards. Do I think that the Cards will be very good? Yeah, obviously. Can they do some damage in the dance next March? Definitely, if things swing right for them. But I think fourth in the nation is a bit of a stretch in terms of a preseason ranking.

As for the Doggies, I think that Harrigan and McAdams-Thornton will be missed more than is let on here, simply because of the kind of players they were on the offensive end, above and beyond their actual numbers. I'm just not sure yet that Augie has players who bring those same skill sets to the table that Harrigan and McAdams-Thornton provided (although I'm as much in the dark about how the team looks circa November 1, 2006 as any of the rest of us). One thing that I think Augie has in its favor that Bob didn't mention is that Giovanine always plays a deep rotation in order to squeeze as much energy out of that pressure defense of his as possible. Every year since he's been in Rock Island Giovanine has had either ten or eleven players average double-figure minutes. This year he's got eight returning double-figure-minutes guys, which means that he only needs to add a couple more players to fill out his 40-minute rotation.

Again, I think that the Doggies have some very nice potential, and I'm not writing them off at all. I'm very wary of saying anything definitive about anybody, sight unseen. I just don't think I'd have Augustana as my preseason #16.

This is probably unfair of me. Bob was good enough to share his picks with us, and I feel a little guilty about critiquing them when I'm not sticking my neck out and making my own picks.  Putting together a preseason Top 25 ballot involves research as well as rolling the dice, and Bob knows his stuff. Apart from moving down the two CCIW teams, and a few other differences (I'd move down the two MWC teams, move up Hope and Ohio Northern, and I'd find a place for Amherst, NYU, and perhaps Ramapo in the Top 25), I'd probably assemble a preseason ballot that'd look an awful lot like Bob's.

[Gregory Sager]

Nationally, I know almost nothing yet about who's back, etc. (except that VaWes returns nearly everyone of importance and is apt to be nearly unanimously pre-season #1),

Don't be surprised if Wooster gets some #1 love in the preseason poll, Chuck. Remember, Chuck Mistovich ranked Wooster #1 in the Street & Smith preseason rankings, and although we generally deride the S&S forecast in the various rooms of Posting Up every September there is good reason to think that Mistovich will have some company in putting the Scots in the penthouse. As Wooscotsfan pointed out, the Scots are seriously loaded this year.

[Gregory Sager]

Elmhurst is my sleeper pick in terms of a CCIW team that has national-power potential. The twin towers of Michael and Ruch create all sorts of matchup problems, Robert Strzemp and Ryan Burks have some very good potential, and Brian Lee very quietly became a steady presence at PG last season. And, while it may seem counterintuitive, the loss of Chris Martin may turn out to be a blessing in disguise for the Bluejays. Having an All-American type of player on a team can sometimes lead to his teammates relying upon him too heavily. This is particularly true if the All-American is one of those ultraversatile types who makes his presence felt in numerous areas, and as we all know Chris Martin did everything for Elmhurst except make the popcorn at the concession stand. There were times last season when his teammates seemed a little passive, as if they were waiting around for him to take charge of the game. This year they won't have the security blanket that #23 provided for them, and the individual Bluejays will therefore be forced to step up and take charge themselves, particularly at the end of ballgames.

Again, though, as with Augie losing Harrigan and McAdams-Thornton, it's all contingent upon Elmhurst finding players that can replace Martin's specific set of skills (as opposed to finding a player, since I doubt Mark Scherer has any one man on his roster who can so many things so well). It's possible that Elmhurst won't be able to compensate for Martin's absence this coming season.

In terms of simple mathematics, it's mandatory that the Bluejays get someone to put up serious numbers from the perimeter for them. My guess is that Scherer is expecting Burks to be that player, which is a lot of pressure to put on a sophomore who saw only garbage minutes in eleven varsity games last season. If he doesn't provide the perimeter scoring, someone else will have to step up and do it, or the Bluejays could drop down as far as the second division in the CCIW standings.

The other big question in my mind regarding Elmhurst is whether or not Scherer can draw out the defensive intensity from this group of players that he always demands. In the five Elmhurst games I saw last season there were numerous occasions in which Scherer was markedly unhappy with what his team was doing at the defensive end of the floor.

As far as Wheaton's concerned, I see two big questions: Who will be the third starter on the perimeter alongside Kent Raymond and Johnnie Standard, and can they get consistent, every-night production from their bigs? Raymond is a surefire superstar, and Standard is the sort of slick shooter that will keep opposing teams honest and prevent them from cheating off on the perimeter to contain Raymond. But neither of their big men are proven at this point; Andy Wiele had the ups and downs typical of a freshman center in this league (although I'm guessing that he's going to be more consistent as a sophomore both offensively and defensively), and in about half of Wheaton's CCIW games last season Michael Fiddler scored in single digits and/or grabbed five or fewer rebounds. Wheaton's bigs will not only need to step up defensively, they'll have to provide a more steady offensive presence in order to balance Raymond and Standard.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Since this is the room where he's known, I think Joe Hakes might have a sleeper up in Massachusetts, too.  I'm not saying they should be in the Top 25 poll to start the year, but they didn't lose much from a good squad last year and reloaded well.  This will be a down year for the NE region and Gordon could make some noise.

[True Basketball Fan]

Interesting sleeper pick with Elmhurst.  I would have to agree.  They still have some very good tools left over from the last two years, and some blossoming new ones, too.  It is not uncommon to see a team flourish without an all-around stud like Martin, especially if the supporting cast is capable of doing things that he did, but didn't get the chance or recognition with him there.  But, they also could slip to a second tier team, if they don't find a consistent outside scoring threat.  Speaking of that, I heard this summer that Gershenzon had been granted another year (medical redshirt).  Unfortunately, I also heard that he decided not to come back this season.  What a blow to the Jays, he could've definitely helped them with his freakish scoring ability. 

[Jim Matson]

CCIW Coaches Poll:

Team - Points - First Place Votes 

North Central....47...5
Augustana........42...2
Elmhurst...........34 
Wheaton..........33...1 (huh?)
Ill Wesleyan......28 
Millikin..............18 
Carthage..........15 
North Park.........7 

[matblake]

Any prognositcators care to surmise who may have voted for Wheaton?