MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Mugsy]

Seriously?  You can delete or modify any post?  That's pretty big stuff.

edit: why yes, yes I can. 

How cool is that? 

So now you can modify all of CardinalAlum's jocular anti-Wheaton posts to indicate how the Bell will remain on the Wheaton campus in 2007.   

[diehardfan]

Congratulations on your selection to the D3sport.com Hall of Fame.  I am sure you will find an appropriate way to celebrate!

Lots and lost of alcohol and clubbing.... Just kidding! Once a Wheatie, always a Wheatie. I am, however, going to two basketball games this weekend.... a highly predictable way for me to celebrate!

So now you can modify all of CardinalAlum's jocular anti-Wheaton posts to indicate how the Bell will remain on the Wheaton campus in 2007.  

Well, while I definitely think that is using my powers for good... .... I'm pretty sure if I start doing things like that, Pat will take them away.

Now, for the love of God, can we please talk about the exciting games coming up this weekend? The headlines on the top of the message board are embarassing enough. 

This Wheaton-North Park matchup should be a pretty good one. It's always tough to play there but due to how weak NPU has been in the past couple of seasons, the Wheaton guys should have some very useful confidence. Wheaton CAN NOT afford to lose this game. If we lose this game and start the season 0-3 we can pretty much kiss a chance at the tourney good-bye. Given that our Whitworth and Chicago regional losses basically give us zero chance at a Pool C, I hope our guys realize it's "do or die" from here on out, and play with the heart they showed at the end of the Nazareth and Augustana games for an ENTIRE game. We can't afford to get behind at the crackerbox against a thoroughly hostile crowd. If we play with heart the whole game, we can take this one... easy... NPU improvements and all. Otherwise, after only week two, all we will have to fight for the rest of the season is our pride.  If we win, the road win will be huge in helping us win back some leverage in Q's formula.

Predictions, NCC falls at Millikin, IWU falls at Elmhurst, and Carthage falls at Augie, and Wheaton is the only team to pull off a road win....

[Titan Q]

There are too many other variables that go into the A:TO ratio to compare teams across the country using that stat.  On January 6, Elmhurst had 14 assists and 16 turnovers vs Augustana.  The same night Wooster had 24 assists and 12 turnovers vs Denison.  What does it mean about Elmhurst vs Wooster?  Nothing.

[Titan Q]

As I have posted before, I am a big fan of the opponent A:TO stat, because I think it illustrates very well how a team disrupts everything the opponents try to do offensively.  The best defensive teams hold assist totals down by closing down passing lanes, making entry passes difficult, playing great defense in the post, etc. and they also force turnovers.  Both are obviously accounted for in the opponent A:TO number.

Here is where the CCIW teams stack up on the season as a whole in opponent assists to turnover ratio:

Millikin - 0.57 
North Park - 0.63
Augustana - 0.64
North Central - 0.74
Carthage - 0.79
Elmhurst - 0.81
Wheaton - 0.98
Illinois Wesleyan - 1.29

Opponent A:TO ratio is an indication of team's defensive style.  You will see the same programs, with different personnel, have remarkably similar opponent A:TO ratio year after year.  (Just as other stats like offensive A:TO ratio and FG% remain fairly steady.)  Under Grey Giovanine, for example, you will always see Augustana near of the top of this list in the CCIW.

The CCIW is generally a league filled with really good defensive teams.  This year, every team except IWU is under 1.00 in opponent A:TO ratio.  Most CCIW games are not "pretty."  Usually you have two big, strong teams who focus very hard on the defensive end of the floor.  In a lot of ways, the CCIW is like the Big Ten from a style standpoint...something you could say about the WIAC as well.

You have to keep this in mind as you evaluate that offensive A:TO stat.


(Also note that opponent A:TO ratio is just one statistic that can be used to evaluate a team defensively.  There are many other which should be considered, such as opponent FG% and points allowed...just like there are a lot of other offensive stats besides A:TO ratio.)

[Titan Q]

Off the last 10 NCAA Division III national champions, 9 had an offensive A:TO ratio greater than 1.10, all 10 had an opponent A:TO ratio less than 1.0, and all 10 had a positive differential between the two numbers:

(offensive A:TO ratio, opponent A:TO ratio, differential)

2006, Virginia Wesleyan – 1.20, 0.61 (+0.59)
2005, UW-Stevens Point – 1.57, 0.82 (+0.75)
2004, UW-Stevens Point – 1.56, 0.81 (+0.75)
2003, Williams – 1.60, 0.79 (+0.81)
2002, Otterbein – 1.11, 0.97 (+0.14)
2001, Catholic – 0.89, 0.60 (+0.29)
2000, Calvin -- 1.10, 0.84 (+0.26)
1999, UW-Platteville – 1.24/0.69 (+0.55)
1998, UW-Platteville – 1.30, 0.46 (+0.84)
1997, Illinois Wesleyan – 1.20, 0.69 (+0.51)

http://www.sportsstats.com/jazzyj/past/diviii.htm


Here are the numbers from the last 5 CCIW regular season champions:

2006, Augustana – 0.83, 0.77 (+0.06)
2005, Illinois Wesleyan – 1.08, 0.94 (+0.14)
2004, Illinois Wesleyan – 1.00, 0.95 (+0.05)
2003, Illinois Wesleyan – 1.01, 0.86 (+0.15)
2002, Carthage – 1.27, 0.85 (+0.42)

And here are the numbers from the CCIW's last 5 Final Four teams:

2006, Illinois Wesleyan – 1.19, 1.18 (+0.01)
2002, Carthage – 1.27, 0.85 (+0.42)
2001, Illinois Wesleyan – 1.04, 0.84 (+0.20)
1997, Illinois Wesleyan – 1.20, 0.69 (+0.51)
1996, Illinois Wesleyan – 1.08, 0.63 (+0.45)


Clearly there is a correlation between great teams and a positive differential in offensive/defensive A:TO ratio.

[Titan Q]

Finally the current CCIW numbers, in order of the standings:

Elmhurst 0.89, 0.81 (+0.08)
Augustana 0.78, 0.64 (+0.14)
North Park 0.68, 0.63 (+0.05)
North Central 0.89, 0.74 (+0.15)
Millikin  0.89, 0.57 (+0.32)
IWU 0.82, 1.29 (-0.47)
Carthage 1.04, 0.79 (+0.25)
Wheaton 1.15, 0.98 (+0.17)


IWU's statistical woes in these areas are frustrating because this Wesleyan team does so many important things well.  The Titans are shooting .501 from the field through 13 games, which leads the league.  Opponents are shooting .410, which is not bad at all -- good for 3rd best FG % defense in the league.  IWU is out-rebounding opponents by a CCIW best 13 boards per game.  But, IWU has taken 696 shots from the field on the season (54/game) and opponents 779 (60/game)...6 less FGA per game, basically due to commiting turnovers and not forcing enough on the defensive end.  Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

[dansand]

Any word on when and if Oliver Rorer will be back. I think Augie will need him back soon, if they plan to challenge for the championship. Perhaps Dansand, who must be out campaigning for Libertarians, can come back on line and give me a Rorer update.

I wish there were some Libertarians to campaign for.

The last update I heard on Oliver wasn't very optimistic. About two weeks ago I was told he still had the pins in his finger and wasn't scheduled to have it checked again for two weeks. Even after they come out he'll have some recuperating to do. I hate to say it, but I heard "season-ending" as a possibility.

Diehard,
If you'd rather not be congratulated, I won't, as long as you promise not to modify my posts in ways to make me look like a communist sympathizer.

As far as the statistical analysis goes, I'd definitely agree with Greg that assists, in many cases, are a little suspect, especially at the small college level. I think that points per possession and opponents points per possession are really the two best measures of a team's offensive and defensive efficiency.

[David Collinge]

As far as the statistical analysis goes, I'd definitely agree with Greg that assists, in many cases, are a little suspect, especially at the small college level. I think that points per possession and opponents points per possession are really the two best measures of a team's offensive and defensive efficiency.

This is exactly the gospel that Wooster coach Steve Moore preaches.  On gamedays, he can't form two sentences without saying "defensive efficiency ratio" (his name for opponent's points per possession) at least once.  It encompasses all aspects of defense, including but not limited to forcing turnovers.  On offense, he does tend to focus attention on assists over the other things that make up "offensive efficiency ratio."  Even though assists are at the mercy of the statkeeper, they still can be a pretty good proxy for how well the offense is working as a team, while the other aspects of points per possession (turnovers, shooting %, etc.) tend to have a sizeable element of luck.

[Titan Q]

To put into perspective how big Elmhurst's starting low post players are, here are the heights/weights of the starting 4/5 players for a few local D1's:


U. of Illinois
Warren Carter 6-9/220
Shaun Pruitt 6-10/245

Illinois State
Greg Dillagard 6-8/230
Levi Dyer 6-11/220

Bradley
Matt Salley 6-7/220
Zach Andrews 6-8/225

Elmhurst goes:

Brent Ruch 6-9/250
Nick Michael 6-10/235


That's a whole bunch of size for a Division III team.

[79jaybird]

"That's a whole bunch of size for a Division III Team" 
TitanQ-- very true and I think this is one of the reasons why EC is having success so far.  Historically they have had 1-2 real strong 3 point shooters (Knuppel, Stark) and the 3 pointer has been one of the Jays staples.  This year's team is trying to pound it down low, get inside the paint and score.  Very difficult usually, but this team is making it look rather easy.  In the Carthage game, there were times where EC just gave it to Michael, Ruch, or Hintzsche and it was either an easy basket and/or it freed up a guy like Lee/Burks for an open outside jumper.  So far things are working well.
PS,  I know IWU always brings a GREAT crowd to the game.  We are expecting some inclement weather (ice/snow storm) so I would allow for some extra traveling time coming up from Bloomington.

[martin]

There are too many other variables that go into the A:TO ratio to compare teams across the country using that stat.  On January 6, Elmhurst had 14 assists and 16 turnovers vs Augustana.  The same night Wooster had 24 assists and 12 turnovers vs Denison.  What does it mean about Elmhurst vs Wooster?  Nothing.

Agree - but Point's A/TO ratio of 1.79 is almost mind blogging.  I ran some stats - that is more than 3 standard deviations above the mean.  And it is not from bogus assist numbers - they do not turn the ball over.  They are #1 in the country in that stat - now 1.4 ahead of #2.  The spread from #2 to #50 is 3.6. 

An A/TO ratio of 1.2 would put you one standard deviation above the mean - i.e. top 16%. 

Looking the other way, Point's opponents have an A/TO ratio of .785.  The Pointers are playing very solid, fundamental basketball.

I am a big fan of Bill James and sabrmetrics.  I don't know how important statistical analysis is to basketball but UWSP has some off the chart statistics - real outliers - that may show the secret to their success.

Yes this should be on the WIAC board.

[Titan Q]

There are too many other variables that go into the A:TO ratio to compare teams across the country using that stat.  On January 6, Elmhurst had 14 assists and 16 turnovers vs Augustana.  The same night Wooster had 24 assists and 12 turnovers vs Denison.  What does it mean about Elmhurst vs Wooster?  Nothing.

Agree - but Point's A/TO ratio of 1.79 is almost mind blogging. 

Without question...it is amazing.  Especially considering how strong their schedule has been!

[Titan Q]

Here are some clips of Keelan Amelianovich in Spain...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYS1X74LWHk


I follow the Illinois high school recruiting scene pretty closely, and it's still hard for me to believe that some Division I team did not offer Keelan a scholarship.  Robert Kreps from Maroa-Forsyth has a ride from UIC, Justin Dehm from Peoria Richwoods has one to Furman, and Brandon Dunson from Bloomington Central Catholic to Tennessee Martin, just of kids I've seen.  These three are nowhere near the high school player Keelan was, and certainly didn't have his upside.  Oh well, glad they missed on him.

I've given up trying to figure out who is D3 and who is D1.

[Titan Q]

CCIW official day job??

http://www.stewarttalent.com/print/printdetail.php?mode=1&TalentID=420

[gordonmann]

Titan:

Do you know anything about how those two guys ended up at Elmhurst?  It is very unusual to have that much size in the post.