MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[diehardfan]

Congrats to Augie! Elmhurst sure had a great season though, and should be very strong next year. It was a very exciting CCIW Tournament in general! I was hoping the CCIW would get two bids, even if one of them wasn't Wheaton, but that obviously wasn't to be.

However, we can all be pretty darn sure that Augie will represent us well in the tournament. Good luck guys! Here's hoping I finally get to see a CCIW team cut down the nets in my trip to Salem this year!

[BRLHSFAN]

Sorry about not replying to you all sooner.  Didn't stop in once the game started.  Was just listening and nothing else.  I was on with no problem.

Congrats to Augustana on a well earned win tonight.  It was a good game and Elmhurst should be proud of how well they have played this season.

Again, sorry about not letting you know that I was not having problems listening and posting any updates for you all. 

[Gregory Sager]

Looks like Augie is on the verge of winning the CCIW's Pool A bid and Elmhurst is officially on the bubble.

Elmhurst's QOWI is now 9.478. That's good for about 55th place or so once the smoke clears -- and keep in mind that there's gonna be some rinky-dink teams with poor numbers that get in just by virtue of owning the AQs of their respective leagues. The Bluejays wind it up with a .739 regional winning percentage, and I can already spot 19 other Pool C contenders with better RW%s than that. And there's still a few teams with better RW%s that have another game left to play -- another game that they might lose.

Elmhurst is more than on the bubble. Elmhurst's chances are nil.

For anyone who has time to check, I'm wondering what Elmhurst's QOWI and in-region winning % was before the CCIW tournament and now after.  With a 1-1 weekend, both numbers obviously went down. As dicey as the Pool C situation is, I'm wondering if that difference is enough to cost EC a bid.

The 'jays went into the weekend with a 9.429 QOWI and a .762 RW%. The QOWI went up slightly because the win over Wheaton was worth 13 points, and the loss to Augie was worth 7. The total of 20 points divided by two games comes out to 10, which was above the QOWI that the 'jays had coming into Friday night. The regional winning percentage went down, of course, because they went 1-1 over the weekend. Also, since Augie will be regionally ranked tomorrow, that makes another loss against a regionally-ranked opponent for Elmhurst.

It looks like a tradeoff to me ... probably a somewhat negative overall effect upon the ledger for Scherer's boys, but not a drastic one.

Many of the CCIW conference tournament proponents sold it as a way for the league to get more teams in the NCAA tourney...this year, the way it has turned out, it has hurt the league's chance.  By how much, I'm not sure - I have to see the before/after numbers - but the fact is that the chances of 3 teams (NCC, Wheaton, and Elmhurst - and I realize only EC had a shot) were hurt because of the tournament.

I really don't think it hurt Elmhurst much at all. The Bluejays probably decreased their overall attractiveness, as I said, but not by much. The bottom line is really this: None of the CCIW teams in the first division apart from Augie were in good shape coming into this weekend. I think that in the final analysis, the only way that NCC or Wheaton could've gotten into the dance was with a CCIW tourney title -- so neither Bill Harris nor Todd Raridon has anything to regret as far as the CCIW tourney is concerned. The league's tourney gave them a chance they wouldn't have otherwise had. And, the more I look at EC's curriculum vitae, the more I'm convinced that their bubble status was so dicey coming into this weekend that they thus would've needed something close to a clean sweep by the nation's best, anyway, in order to secure a Pool C bid if they needed one -- and that the 'jays therefore can blame their misfortune not upon the CCIW tourney but upon Virginia Wesleyan, Hope, Brockport State, etc.

Bottom line: It's not the CCIW tournament's fault that we're only sending one team to the dance. It's the league's fault as a whole. It beat itself up too much. Elmhurst lost a home game to Millikin, whose 7-14 regional record made the game worth a horrific 2 points for the 'jays. The EC loss late in the season to NCC hurt very badly as well. The fact that internal cannibalization was so drastic as to cost us any Pool C bids will have me scratching my head for days, because ... well, for crying out loud, our league went 66-22 in non-conference play. Everybody piled up the wins in November and December. The moral of the story, I guess, is that we piled too many of them up against the wrong teams (e.g., IIT and Alma).

Calvin may now be the team that knocks Elmhurst out of the big dance. 

No, Watcher. As I explained earlier with reference to UWSP, it really doesn't work that way.

[Gregory Sager]

Can probably safely remove one team from the list - Wooster is destroying OWU.

Yup, as expected.

Maybe you expected a blowout win for Wooster, but not many others did.  Wooster beat OWU by 7 and by 6 during the regular season, and both contests were decided in the final minute.  The ease with which the Scots dispatched the Bishops tonight was a big surprise to most of us.

Big-time teams play well in big games, and Wooster is a big-time team. If I've seen it once, I've seen it a hundred times: A significant underdog pulls off a huge semifinal upset, only to stare down the league's true giant the next night ... and blink. I really didn't expect the NCAC final to be much of a contest at all.

[Gregory Sager]

Congrats to Augustana. The Doggies deserve our kudos on a job well done, and our support in the dance. However, it's probably asking too much for a lot of us to take pleasure in their dual accomplishments of winning the title and winning the CCIW tourney, because those circumstances have contributed to what will almost certainly be only one CCIW team dancing. And that just doesn't sit right with most CCIW fans, I daresay.

Congrats to Elmhurst are in order as well, for a fantastic season that will end much sooner than the Bluejays deserve to have it end. As April said, the Bluejays should be very strong next year. D3 is filled with coaches that would give their eyeteeth to have Brent Ruch, Ryan Burks, Pat Bacon, Robert Strzemp, and Jared Hintzsche as their starting lineup next season.

[Titan Q]

As everyone follows the Pool C board through the announcements tomorrow evening, remember that last year the committee did not go straight down that QOWI list in picking the at-large teams.  I'm not declaring Elmhurst dead yet.

Last year...

1-10
Amherst     12.160     24-1
Lawrence    11.682    22-0
Worcester Polytech    11.250    20-3
Mississippi College    11.154    25-1
Tufts    11.000    20-5 Pool C
St. John Fisher    11.000    22-1
Lincoln    10.688    12-4  Pool B
Wittenberg    10.652    20-3
Gordon    10.560    22-3 Pool C
Carnegie Mellon    10.550    16-4

11-20
Virginia Wesleyan    10.481    24-3
Augustana    10.478    19-4 Pool C
Cortland State    10.440    22-3 Pool C
York (Pa.)    10.400    22-3 Pool C
Transylvania    10.370    23-4
Trinity (Texas)    10.316    16-3 Pool C
UW-Whitewater    10.304    18-5
William Paterson    10.240    19-6
Hope    10.211    17-2
North Central    10.095    16-5
             
21-30
Bates    10.091    16-6 (not selected)
Carroll    10.087    19-4 Pool C
Ursinus    10.080    20-5
Baldwin-Wallace    10.077    22-4
Washington U.    10.050    14-6 (not selected)
Wooster    10.042    21-3 Pool C
Carleton    10.000    18-5 Pool C
St. Thomas    9.960    20-5
Baruch    9.958    21-3 Pool C
Alvernia    9.958    21-3
             
31-40
Illinois Wesleyan    9.952    15-6 Pool C
Puget Sound    9.944    16-2
Widener    9.920    20-5 Pool C
Lakeland    9.905    17-4 (not selected)
UW-La Crosse    9.880    18-7 Pool C
SUNY-Farmingdale    9.875    19-5
UW-Stout    9.870    18-5 Pool C
Randolph-Macon    9.840    19-6 Pool C
Keene State    9.800    18-7 (not selected)
Fisk    9.800    10-5 (not selected for Pool B)
             
41-50
Trinity (Conn.)    9.750    15-5 (not selected)
Occidental    9.750    12-4 Pool C
Calvin    9.733    13-2 Pool C
Utica    9.692    20-6 Pool C
MIT    9.680    17-7 (not selected)
Messiah    9.583    17-7
Whitworth    9.542    18-6 (not selected)
Catholic    9.542    19-5
Endicott    9.520    16-8
Lake Erie    9.500    18-4

[Ralph Turner]

Titan, I have tried to take dhf's list and Pat's QOWI and put them up for review on the Pool board.

I am very hesitant about McMurry which is 3-4 in-region vs. MC and HSU, (the ASC finalists) plus UMHB a regionally ranked team and Trinity, the SCAC finalist.  We are 19-5 (.791) and QOWI = 9.666.

I think that we are one one-point loss in December away from the bid! 

[John Gleich]

I haven't done any extensive investigation on this.... but I'm wondering if the "expanded" rules of in-region games (i.e. teams from adjacent regions a la Wheaton v. Whitworth now becoming in-region)  ultimately will effect teams that, otherwise, would have gotten bids under, say, last year's rules.  I'm not sure if there are enough games for it to really matter, but without this rule, Wheaton would have had one less loss in-region, so their region win % and QOWI would have been higher.  Now, in this specific case, there may not have been any significant difference for the Thunder... but while the efforts to bring D-3 into a more national realm has the distinct potential of giving us more excellent, meaningful games (such as the one noted) it may also hamper teams from the more balanced regions like the West and Midwest, who suddenly have an extra loss tagged on to their "meaningful" record, where in years past it would have just been an experience builder.  This may actually really effect scheduling.

I recall some CCIW posters stating that it might be better to schedule some out-of-region opponents or NAIA opponents for good playing experience that wouldn't hamper the "meaningful" record... but in balanced conferences, such as the CCIW this year, a win against an NAIA team is one less game that could be played against even a bottom-feeding regional opponent... which would pad the regional win%.  I'm not sure which is better...  playing the toughest schedule possible, being tournament ready, and missing out because of a few blemishes on the schedule, or playing a cupcake schedule and padding the numbers that seem to matter most to the NCAA and increasing the chances of being bumped in the tournament due to a lack of big game experience.

**I understand that this really isn't possible in leagues like the WIAC and CCIW... if your team doesn't pass the big game tests in the regular season, it doesn't matter HOW many cupcakes they've beaten during the regular season.... they're not going to put themselved in the position in conference to compete anyway.

[Gregory Sager]

As everyone follows the Pool C board through the announcements tomorrow evening, remember that last year the committee did not go straight down that QOWI list in picking the at-large teams.

True, but look ...

41-50
Trinity (Conn.)    9.750    15-5 (not selected)
Occidental    9.750    12-4 Pool C
Calvin    9.733    13-2 Pool C
Utica    9.692    20-6 Pool C
MIT    9.680    17-7 (not selected)
Messiah    9.583    17-7
Whitworth    9.542    18-6 (not selected)
Catholic    9.542    19-5
Endicott    9.520    16-8
Lake Erie    9.500    18-4[/i]

Utica, the lowest Pool C team last year in terms of QOWI, ranked 44th in that category with a 9.692. As I said before, Elmhurst is likely going to land somewhere in the 50s in terms of QOWI, and not necessarily in the low 50s, either. The QOWI of the 'jays is 9.478, well below the floor established by Utica last season. And the 'jays can't compensate for it with a good RW%, either, because .739 is pretty darn low by Pool C standards. The only one that was worse than .739 last year was Illinois Wesleyan's .714, and the Titans compensated for that with a QOWI that was much higher than the one posted by the Bluejays this year.

Believe me, I would dearly love to be proven wrong. The only people who would like Elmhurst to go dancing more than me are the Elmhurst people themselves. But I just don't see it happening, and I'm not going to cling to false hope or try to foist it upon anybody else.

[Ralph Turner]

When the Final QOWI is run by Pat on Sunday pm, and we have final in-region won-lost percentages, and I can use the last published Regional Rankings, I will analyze how close all of these bubble teams came. 

[Ralph Turner]

I calculated Elmhurst's QOWI as (9.591 times 22 games = 211 points)  + 7 points for today's loss + 8 more points for a win over Simpson = 226 points divided by 23 games = 9.825.

There is the difference!  Elmhurst probably makes the tourney as a Pool C if they had beaten Simpson! 

[Greek Tragedy]

so it's on the most current page, and it has been updated thru Saturday's games!

DOESN'T LOOK GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE CCIW.

I've added the current records and the overall current rank of the QOWI according to Pat's most recent chart...

Atlantic Region
1. (44) Stevens 21-6 21-6 (LOST in Skyline Semis)
2. (13) Ramapo 21-7 20-5 (Won NJAC AQ)
3. (39) Manhattanville 23-5 22-5 (Won Skyline AQ)
4. (55) New Jersey City 18-9 17-8 (LOST to Ramapo in NJAC Final)
5. (74) Rowan 20-6 15-6  (LOST to Ramapo in NJAC Semis)

East Region
1. (19) Brockport State 23-5 22-5 (LOST to Plattsburgh State in SUNYAC Final)
2. (15) St. John Fisher 22-5 21-5 (Won Empire 8 AQ)
3. (11) St. Lawrence 22-5 21-5 (Won Liberty League AQ)
4. (46) New York U. 19-6 18-6 (lost to Brandeis, needs a Pool C)
5. (20) Rochester 18-7 18-6 (beat Carnegie Mellon, still needs a Pool C)

Great Lakes Region
1. (4) Lake Erie 25-2 21-1 (Won AMCC AQ)
2. (27) Wooster 25-3 20-2 (Won NCAC AQ)
3. (31) John Carroll 19-9 18-7 (LOST to Capital in OAC Final)
4. (36) Hope 23-4 16-4 (LOST to Calvin in MIAA Final)
5. (52) Ohio Northern 19-7 14-7 (LOST to Otterbein in OAC Quarters)
6. (62) Wittenberg 22-5 17-5 (LOST to Ohio Wesleyan in NCAC Semis)

Middle Atlantic Region
1. (30) Johns Hopkins 22-4 21-3 (plays Haverford in Centennial Finals)
2. (32) Messiah 19-6 16-4 (LOST to Widener in MAC-Commonwealth Semis)
3. (42) Alvernia 23-4 22-2 (Won PnAC AQ)
4. (25) Lincoln (Pa.) 18-8 11-3-IND:  POOL B
5. (21) Catholic 22-5 21-5 (Won CAC AQ)
6. (40) Hood 21-7 20-6 (LOST to Catholic in CAC Final)
7. (37) King's (Pa.) 19-8 19-7 (Won MAC-Freedom AQ)
8. (45) Scranton 19-7 17-7 (LOST to DeSales in MAC-Freedom Semis)

Midwest Region
1. (12) Chicago 20-5 19-5 (LOST to Washington U., needs Pool C bid)
2. (18) Augustana 22-5 22-4 (Won CCIW AQ)
3. (9) Washington U. 12-4 18-4 (defeats Chicago in UAA, gets UAA AQ)
4. (14) Aurora 25-2 24-2 (Won NathCon Final:  POOL B
5. (57) Elmhurst 21-6 17-6 (LOST to Augustana in CCIW Final)
6. (73) Carthage 16-9 13-8 ([Reg. season complete, did not make CCIW tourney)
7. (64) Grinnell 17-7 16-7 (LOST to Lake Forest in MWC Semis)
8. (70) Wheaton (Ill.) 17-9 13-8 (LOST to Elmhurst in CCIW Semis)

Northeast Region
1. (2) Amherst 25-1 24-1 (plays Williams in NESCAC Final)
2. (8 ) Salem State 24-2 24-2 (Won MASCAC AQ)
3. (7) Trinity (Conn.) 21-4 17-4 (LOST to Williams in NESCAC Semis)
4. (3) WPI 22-2 20-2 (plays Coast Guard in NEWMAC Final)
5. (6) Rhode Island 24-3 24-3 (Won LEC AQ)
6. (26) Keene State 23-5 20-5 (LOST to Rhode Island in LEC Final)
7. (17) Brandeis 19-6 19-6 (defeated NYU, still needs a Pool C)
8. (47) Bates 18-7 17-7 (LOST to Amherst in NESCAC Quarters)
9. (49) Husson 22-6 22-4 (LOST to Elms in NAC Final)
10. (80) Western New England 19-8 19-8 (LOST to Emmanuel in GNAC Semis)

South Region
1. (10) Mississippi College 24-2 22-1 (plays Hardin-Simmons in ASC Final)
2. (24) Va. Wesleyan 23-4 22-4 (LOST to Hampden-Sydney in ODAC Semis)
3. (51) Guilford 21-4 20-4 (LOST to Bridgewater (Va) in ODAC Quarters)
4. (38) DePauw 22-5 19-4 (LOST to Trinity (TX) in SCAC Semis)
5. (43) Mary Hardin-Baylor 22-5 22-5 (LOST to Hardin-Simmons in ASC Semis;a 5-pt QOWI loss)
6. (33) Maryville (Tenn.) 21-6 21-3 (defeated LaGrange in GSAC Final)-POOL B
7. (23) Centre 22-4 16-4 (plays Trinity (TX) in SCAC Final)
8. (54) McMurry 20-7 19-5 (LOST to Mississippi College in ASC Semis)

West Region
1. (1) UW-Stevens Point 25-2 24-1 (Won WIAC AQ)
2. (5) St. Thomas 24-3 24-3 (Won MIAC AQ)
3. (23) St. John's 20-7 20-4 (LOST to St. Thomas in MIAC Final)
4. (34) UW-Oshkosh 21-6 18-6 (LOST to La Crosse in WIAC Semis)
5. (16) Occidental 19-5 14-3 (Won SCIAC AQ)
6. (28) Whitworth 23-3 20-3 (Won NWC AQ)
7. (29) Loras 21-6 19-4 (Won IIAC AQ)
8. (41) UW-La Crosse 19-8 17-7 (LOST to Stevens Point in WIAC Final)

[armywife]

Congratulations to all of the CCIW teams, and to NC, Elmhurst, Wheaton and Augie for making the tournament. Congratulations to Augustana for winning the conference and for winning the tournament. That is a huge accomplishment in the CCIW, it's just so competitive, with all of the teams playing well. I noticed that Augustana played 10 players for at least 10 minutes last night, and played 12 players all together. 10 players scored. That is just a huge team effort. Especially without 1 big stand out player like a Zach Freeman.

I hope that Elmhurst can receive a pool C bid for the NCAA tournament. I know that Augustana will represent the CCIW well.

[usee]

Good Luck to the BlueJays. Here's hoping the committee acts with improbable common sense and takes a top ten team.

Btw, does the cciw play a consolation game in the tourney? (Wht v ncc?)

[True Basketball Fan]

If everybody's prediction is true, then the CCIW will only get ONE TEAM in the NCAA Tourney!  That is ridiculous!  The league was down very slightly from last year, but I still feel it deserves two teams this year.  Basically, the CCIW should get at least two teams in every year, even in a so called "down year" (Weren't there 4 or 5 teams ranked in the Top 25 throughout the year, what a down year!).