MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[iwumichigander]

Anybody think that Carthage will win 10 games in the league?  I just don't see it, even though they are almost halfway there with 9 games left to play.  Their hot shooting, which most likely will not be sustained at the same pace the rest of the year, and their soft defense suggest that.  However, they are much better than I thought they would be,...

Why not? As you note, Carthage is almost halfway there.  All losses have been on the road. Record at home 6-0.  With 4 home games remaining and 5 road games the odds seems to be in their favor to win at least 10 unless some team figures out how to shutdown Steve D

[79jaybird]

I think Carthage has just as much a chance at 10+ wins/playoffs as EC/AC and Wheaton do.  Nobody has seem to show any consistency and with a "anybody can beat anybody" type of conference, everybody is still alive.

[usee]

Last night, despite Harris' claims of inequity, was a very winnable game and one that the Thunder absolutely should have won (if they had played better).

I kind of disagree.  I need to see more games play out, but I think there is a good chance that IWU is just simply a better team than Wheaton. 
If you erase preseason expectations (Wheaton as a "contender" and IWU as the 7th place team) and just watch the two teams play, I think most would agree that it is at least a push, and if a push, IWU should have won at home last night.  And they did.  Wheaton will be favored at King Arena on Feb. 16.

I don't think last night was an upset.

As you note, your theory is still developing and it may prove to be accurate (it certainly is so far). But going into this season and probably last nights game I don't think anyone thought IWU was better than Wheaton. If that ends up as a reality it will be a very disappointing season for Thunder fans.

[Titan Q]

Every year we talk about the key to winning the conference being protecting homecourt (winning all 7 at home) and finding a way to win some road games. 

Using a simple system where a home win is worth 0 points, a home loss -1, a road win is +1, and a road loss 0, here is where everyone stands:

Carthage (4-1): +1 (road win at EC)
Illinois Wesleyan (3-2): +1 (road win at MU)
Elmhurst (3-2): +0 (home loss to CC but road win at NPU)
Augustana (3-2): +0 (0 for 2 in steal chances - @NPU, @CC)
North Central (2-3): +0 (0 for 3 in steal chances - @IWU, @NPU, @CC)
Wheaton (2-3): +0 (0 for 3 in steal chances - @NCC, @AC, @IWU)
North Park (2-3): -1 (home loss to EC)
Millikin (1-4): -1 (home loss to IWU)

Here in the early going, I think this may illustrate how tight things are even better than the standings.  It takes where the games have been played into account.  I believe it will take +3 to win the CCIW this year (10-4).

There have only been 3 road wins so far -- Carthage over Elmhurst, Elmhurst over North Park, and IWU over Millikin.  Otherwise, everyone has held serve.

Road wins are enormous.  Here's the slate Saturday...

Wheaton @ Elmhurst
Carthage @ Millikin
North Central @ Augustana
Illinois Wesleyan @ North Park

[Viking Blue]

I'm a baseball player, and I have a simple question.

Why is it so hard to win on the road in basketball?

The court dimensions never change, nor does the wind, the temperature, or the precipitation.

I have to be honest...I don't buy the whole "home court advantage" thing.   Seems like a cop-out to me. 

Put the biscuit in the basket.  That's the name of the game.  And the basket hasn't changed in a while...since they stopped using ladders to pick it out and someone came up with the great idea to put a hole in the bottom of it.

I think basketball players have it easy, when it comes to "going on the road".

I'm sure this will be met with much agreement....just kidding.

[Gregory Sager]

Last night, despite Harris' claims of inequity, was a very winnable game and one that the Thunder absolutely should have won (if they had played better).

I kind of disagree.  I need to see more games play out, but I think there is a good chance that IWU is just simply a better team than Wheaton.  The Titans certainly do not have anything remotely resembling superstar Kent Raymond, but they're deeper and more balanced.  Wheaton is a 3-man team.  After Raymond (22.6 ppg), who is an All-American, and Wiele (14.3 ppg) and Panner (14.7 ppg), who are very good supporting cast members, the Thunder just don't have that much.  Maybe Jahns?  The Titans have 7 players averaging between 6 and 14 points in CCIW play...

Sean Johnson 13.8 (perimeter)
Brett Chamernik 12.3 (post)
Darius Gant 11.3 (post)
Travis Rosenkranz 11.0 (perimeter)
Jordan Morris 9.5 (perimeter)
Sean Dwyer 6.8 (perimeter)
Doug Sexauer 5.8 (post)

IWU has very nice inside/outside balance offensively.  On defense, they're getting better - last night was by far their best defensive effort of the season.

If you erase preseason expectations (Wheaton as a "contender" and IWU as the 7th place team) and just watch the two teams play, I think most would agree that it is at least a push, and if a push, IWU should have won at home last night.  And they did.  Wheaton will be favored at King Arena on Feb. 16.

I don't think last night was an upset.

You mean it wasn't a winnable game for Wheaton? Holy cow, Bob, Wheaton had the ball with five seconds left in regulation and only trailing by a point. Had Panner not coughed up the ball the Sonic Atmospheric Disturbance was in a good position to win that game ... in the Shirk Center. Based upon your post above, and your "miscellaneous thoughts" post before it that highlighted just how poorly Wheaton's major contributors fared against Wesleyan, a casual reader would think that the Titans' win had been a cakewalk.

When I see that a home team beat a visitor in a conference nailbiter that goes right down to the final buzzer, it's going to take some convincing to sell me on the idea that the home team is therefore better. Although Viking Blue is correct that on the face of it home-court advantage shouldn't exist, the reality is that not only does it exist, it can be a pretty potent weapon in the arsenal of certain teams -- of which Illinois Wesleyan is definitely one. After all the bragging that Titans fans have done about their team's home-court advantage on CCIW Chat over the years, I have a hard time believing that it inexplicably vanished last night and that the Titans eked out a narrow home win over Wheaton simply because the Titans are a better team.

Yeah, I wasn't there, but based upon your last two posts about the game I get the strong feeling that you may have to step back and look at the bigger picture here.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I'm a baseball player, and I have a simple question.

Why is it so hard to win on the road in basketball?

The court dimensions never change, nor does the wind, the temperature, or the precipitation.

I have to be honest...I don't buy the whole "home court advantage" thing.   Seems like a cop-out to me. 

Put the biscuit in the basket.  That's the name of the game.  And the basket hasn't changed in a while...since they stopped using ladders to pick it out and someone came up with the great idea to put a hole in the bottom of it.

I think basketball players have it easy, when it comes to "going on the road".

I'm sure this will be met with much agreement....just kidding.

The historical record is quite clear that you are wrong.  Facts are facts, and the home team wins considerably more often than not.  Now, as to why...

1. The crowd (as a baseball player, maybe you didn't know about that one!  oops, sorry! )

2. The dimensions of the court remain the same, as well as the other factors you mentioned (hopefully!), but all courts have 'dead' spots, not all backboards or baskets are identical in tension, the lighting varies, the shooting background varies, etc.

3. Going to or from at least the 4 non-Chicago-land schools makes a difference; while this is true for all sports, the extra few inches of the average basketball player may make the travel even more of a concern.

4. Did I mention the home crowd?  And while it shouldn't make a difference, persistent rumor has it that some officials may be affected by that (as well as some players).

I'm sure I've forgotten some things that others can add.

[Gregory Sager]

GS-
"Tonight was an absolute disgrace. As the North Park coaches said, the Vikings took four steps backward tonight. One can only hope that they completely erase tonight's debacle from their minds, get a good night's sleep, practice hard and listen diligently over the next two days, and show up to the crackerbox on Saturday to face Illinois Wesleyan with minds, hearts, and nerve intact."

Don't worry, NPU is always ready for IWU and will play the game of their lives!  I have yet to see a CCIW team that does not set some high water
marks in their performance against the Titans.

Baloney. "NPU is always ready for IWU"? On the contrary, I've seen far too many Vikings teams that were nowhere near ready for the Titans. And as for the chest-thumping about how every CCIW team you've seen sets a high-water mark in their performance against the Titans, I call shenanigans on that as well. Illinois Wesleyan has a good team this season, and the Titans need to be respected. But every team in the league needs to be respected this season, because parity has brought us to the point where no team can anticipate an easy game in any of its 14 CCIW contests.

Also, quite frankly, Illinois Wesleyan is no longer the powerhouse by which everyone else in the league measures itself, the bully that has the bullseye painted upon its back and which gets everyone's best game. The Titans finished 11-14, 4-10 and in seventh place in the CCIW last season. This season they're 9-7, 3-2. While I freely acknowledge that I haven't seen the Titans thus far in 2007-08, it seems to me that Elmhurst is a better team than Illinois Wesleyan this season -- and the Park certainly failed miserably to get up for the Bluejays last night. If NPU can't get roused to play its best against the 13th-ranked team in the nation, then it is an open question as to whether or not the Vikes can get roused to play their best against a lesser team.

[Titan Q]

Last night, despite Harris' claims of inequity, was a very winnable game and one that the Thunder absolutely should have won (if they had played better).

I kind of disagree.  I need to see more games play out, but I think there is a good chance that IWU is just simply a better team than Wheaton.  The Titans certainly do not have anything remotely resembling superstar Kent Raymond, but they're deeper and more balanced.  Wheaton is a 3-man team.  After Raymond (22.6 ppg), who is an All-American, and Wiele (14.3 ppg) and Panner (14.7 ppg), who are very good supporting cast members, the Thunder just don't have that much.  Maybe Jahns?  The Titans have 7 players averaging between 6 and 14 points in CCIW play...

Sean Johnson 13.8 (perimeter)
Brett Chamernik 12.3 (post)
Darius Gant 11.3 (post)
Travis Rosenkranz 11.0 (perimeter)
Jordan Morris 9.5 (perimeter)
Sean Dwyer 6.8 (perimeter)
Doug Sexauer 5.8 (post)

IWU has very nice inside/outside balance offensively.  On defense, they're getting better - last night was by far their best defensive effort of the season.

If you erase preseason expectations (Wheaton as a "contender" and IWU as the 7th place team) and just watch the two teams play, I think most would agree that it is at least a push, and if a push, IWU should have won at home last night.  And they did.  Wheaton will be favored at King Arena on Feb. 16.

I don't think last night was an upset.

You mean it wasn't a winnable game for Wheaton? Holy cow, Bob, Wheaton had the ball with five seconds left in regulation and only trailing by a point. Had Panner not coughed up the ball the Sonic Atmospheric Disturbance was in a good position to win that game ... in the Shirk Center. Based upon your post above, and your "miscellaneous thoughts" post before it that highlighted just how poorly Wheaton's major contributors fared against Wesleyan, a casual reader would think that the Titans' win had been a cakewalk.

When I see that a home team beat a visitor in a conference nailbiter that goes right down to the final buzzer, it's going to take some convincing to sell me on the idea that the home team is therefore better. Although Viking Blue is correct that on the face of it home-court advantage shouldn't exist, the reality is that not only does it exist, it can be a pretty potent weapon in the arsenal of certain teams -- of which Illinois Wesleyan is definitely one. After all the bragging that Titans fans have done about their team's home-court advantage on CCIW Chat over the years, I have a hard time believing that it inexplicably vanished last night and that the Titans eked out a narrow home win over Wheaton simply because the Titans are a better team.

Yeah, I wasn't there, but based upon your last two posts about the game I get the strong feeling that you may have to step back and look at the bigger picture here.

Come on Greg.  I think it was pretty obvious based on my post - and common sense - that I disagreed with the statement, "the Thunder absolutely should have won (the game @ IWU)."  Of course it was a winnable game for Wheaton.  My point was pretty simple -- IWU may have actually been the favorite in the game.

[sac]

I'm a baseball player, and I have a simple question.

Why is it so hard to win on the road in basketball?

The court dimensions never change, nor does the wind, the temperature, or the precipitation.

I have to be honest...I don't buy the whole "home court advantage" thing.   Seems like a cop-out to me. 

Put the biscuit in the basket.  That's the name of the game.  And the basket hasn't changed in a while...since they stopped using ladders to pick it out and someone came up with the great idea to put a hole in the bottom of it.

I think basketball players have it easy, when it comes to "going on the road".

I'm sure this will be met with much agreement....just kidding.

Here's a couple excerpts from a VERY long and dry study done on the subject found here
http://www.ncsociology.org/advan1.htm

Although the crowd influence is a large part of the home court advantage, it doesn't account for everything. In Duke Men's Basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski's book Leading With the Heart he gives praise to the Cameron Crazies (the students that attend the basketball games) for their performance and influence over the games: "In truth, the students are part of our team. They are our sixth man. When they arrive at the games, many have painted their faces, designed humorous signs, created chants that echo throughout the arena during a game. They call themselves the Cameron Crazies ... One year, I told them that one of our defensive goals for the game would be to force the ball along the sidelines, and that whenever our opponents picked up the dribble in those situations, I wanted our players to yell, "Ball! Ball! Well, the next day, before the game actually started, I walked out onto the court to say hello to small groups of students who were waiting in their seats-and we briefly discussed what the assignment was again. And sure enough, during the game, we forced a few of those situations and it wasn't just the players on the court who were yelling, 'Ball! Ball!' It was the entire student body. We won that game, and as I walked off the court, I pointed to the students and kept mouthing the words, 'You did this. You did this.'"



A study conducted by Phillip E. Varca done on the home crowd advantage in basketball also found that home teams play more aggressively at home, and exhibit more aggressive tendencies when playing in front of a friendly crowd. After studying SEC college basketball teams for the 1977-1978 season, Varca drew these conclusions about team performance in front of a home crowd: home teams grab more rebounds (37.5 home – 34.4 away), have more blocked shots (2.8 home – 2.3 away), and have more steals (6.6 home – 5.3 away). Each of these statistics, indicating heightened aggression, are more pronounced when playing in front of a friendly crowd.

and lastly

Schwartz and Barsky also had some more unusual findings. The home court advantage was greater when the conditions of play are most uniform. In basketball and hockey (when the surfaces and courts are closely regulated) the home court advantage was the greatest. In sports such as football and baseball (where the fields vary due to Astroturf, domes, stadium size, etc) the home court advantage is least pronounced.

[Gregory Sager]

Didn't see the Carthage-North Central game---But with a Little Bosko shooting 27 FT's, it would appear that Flopfest was in high gear and Big Bosko was velcroed to any official who would pass by him on the sideline

Maybe leave the passing of judgment to those who actually attended the game?

That doesn't appear to be in Late Nite's gameplan, as every other post he's put on CCIW Chat over the past couple weeks has been a nagging complaint about how "Big Bosko" and "Little Bosko" (is the name "Steve" or "Steve D." really that much harder to spell than "Little Bosko", LN? or does the kid not deserve his own identity?) have every CCIW ref in their back pockets and are playing them all for chumps.

He certainly has the right to post about anything he wishes, but I'm a little wearied by the constant bashing of Djurickovics pere and fils. And I'm not even a Carthage fan. Yes, LN, we get it ... Steve Djurickovic is awarded an astonishing (and suspicious, if you don't like Carthage or the Djurickovics) number of trips to the free-throw line every game, and Bosko -- heaven forbid! -- is not afraid to get in the ear of the refs when he thinks that his team's been fouled. But at this point you're just saying the same thing over and over.

[Gregory Sager]

Last night, despite Harris' claims of inequity, was a very winnable game and one that the Thunder absolutely should have won (if they had played better).

I kind of disagree.  I need to see more games play out, but I think there is a good chance that IWU is just simply a better team than Wheaton.  The Titans certainly do not have anything remotely resembling superstar Kent Raymond, but they're deeper and more balanced.  Wheaton is a 3-man team.  After Raymond (22.6 ppg), who is an All-American, and Wiele (14.3 ppg) and Panner (14.7 ppg), who are very good supporting cast members, the Thunder just don't have that much.  Maybe Jahns?  The Titans have 7 players averaging between 6 and 14 points in CCIW play...

Sean Johnson 13.8 (perimeter)
Brett Chamernik 12.3 (post)
Darius Gant 11.3 (post)
Travis Rosenkranz 11.0 (perimeter)
Jordan Morris 9.5 (perimeter)
Sean Dwyer 6.8 (perimeter)
Doug Sexauer 5.8 (post)

IWU has very nice inside/outside balance offensively.  On defense, they're getting better - last night was by far their best defensive effort of the season.

If you erase preseason expectations (Wheaton as a "contender" and IWU as the 7th place team) and just watch the two teams play, I think most would agree that it is at least a push, and if a push, IWU should have won at home last night.  And they did.  Wheaton will be favored at King Arena on Feb. 16.

I don't think last night was an upset.

You mean it wasn't a winnable game for Wheaton? Holy cow, Bob, Wheaton had the ball with five seconds left in regulation and only trailing by a point. Had Panner not coughed up the ball the Sonic Atmospheric Disturbance was in a good position to win that game ... in the Shirk Center. Based upon your post above, and your "miscellaneous thoughts" post before it that highlighted just how poorly Wheaton's major contributors fared against Wesleyan, a casual reader would think that the Titans' win had been a cakewalk.

When I see that a home team beat a visitor in a conference nailbiter that goes right down to the final buzzer, it's going to take some convincing to sell me on the idea that the home team is therefore better. Although Viking Blue is correct that on the face of it home-court advantage shouldn't exist, the reality is that not only does it exist, it can be a pretty potent weapon in the arsenal of certain teams -- of which Illinois Wesleyan is definitely one. After all the bragging that Titans fans have done about their team's home-court advantage on CCIW Chat over the years, I have a hard time believing that it inexplicably vanished last night and that the Titans eked out a narrow home win over Wheaton simply because the Titans are a better team.

Yeah, I wasn't there, but based upon your last two posts about the game I get the strong feeling that you may have to step back and look at the bigger picture here.

Come on Greg.  I think it was pretty obvious based on my post - and common sense - that I disagreed with the statement, "the Thunder absolutely should have won (the game @ IWU)."  Of course it was a winnable game for Wheaton.  My point was pretty simple -- IWU may have actually been the favorite in the game.

Nothing obvious about that at all, Bob. Usee made two declarative statements -- last night's game was very winnable for Wheaton, and last night's game absolutely should've been won by Wheaton -- and your response was, "I kind of disagree." Disagree to which statement? Or to both of them? And then you followed it up with a thesis that Illinois Wesleyan is actually the better of the two teams, a thesis which can be used to dispute either statement.

[Titan Q]

I guess I'll have to pay more attention to declarative statements moving forward.

[Gregory Sager]

No one can make it worth your while to read about a 66-39 game like Gregory Sager......no one. 

Agree and looking at the stats, Greg was being rather kind.  NPU scored 20 of its 39 points off 21 Elmhurst turnovers!!

I'm not sure what point it is that you're trying to make here, IWUM. NPU averages 16 opponent turnovers per game, and the Vikings lead the CCIW with 15.4 opponent turnovers in league play. They also lead the league with 39 steals after the first five games. North Park is very aggressive on defense. Even when the Vikings are laying as big an egg as they laid last night, they're still ballhawking. In fact, as I said in my game recap last night NPU actually dialed that up as the game got away from the Vikes in the second half, since a team of quick perimeter defenders that is trailing badly and isn't shooting very well will naturally try to go for the steal as often as possible to get easy transition baskets. It's one of the reasons why Elmhurst shooters Chris Childs and Ryan Burks were left wide open to knock down those big triples down the stretch.

[Gregory Sager]

REDMENFAN,
                   Anytime you look at the stats of a team or player then you see a jump by 10 in any area in one game it sends a red flag out and NCC isn't a real physical team with 4 players fouling out, that sir is not the norm.

Thirty fouls in a game isn't the norm, but North Central is a physical team. And I don't say that as an attempt to rehash last week's flame war between NPU and NCC supporters. I say it as a compliment.

One of the things that Todd Raridon can do to overcome the talent inequity his Cardinals face in most CCIW games -- an inequity that has been exacerbated by injuries and roster attrition -- is to get them to play solid, hard-nosed defense and to use the muscle of Matt Rogers in the low post on offense. Defensive physicality can be a great equalizer, and in NCC's case I think that it certainly is. The Cards are currently second in the CCIW in fouls committed in league play, behind Elmhurst (which also suffered from a glut of fouls when it played Carthage), and even if you allow for the fact that the Cardinals have played Carthage while two CCIW teams (Millikin and NPU) still have not, NCC would still be a close third in the league in fouls committed:

team	fouls
Elmhurst	104
North Central	101
Millikin	97
Illinois Wesleyan	87
Augustana	83
Wheaton	82
North Park	79
Carthage	74

(I tend to think that Millikin's high total probably has a lot to do with the relative youth of the Big Blue.)

Utilizing rough play may annoy the players and coaches (and fans! ) of other teams, but it's not an indictment to call another CCIW team "physical". As Augustana has proved throughout the Giovanine regime, being physical can most certainly be a virtue. As I do in a lot of other ways, I applaud Todd Raridon for the particular brand of ball that he's drawn from his players this season.