MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[cardinalfanrochelle]

aceon2 and robberki,
                                with both your posts "it's better the officals swallow the whistle in that situation or" the very good officals do not let their whistle determining factor in the game"wouldn't they then be the worst officals for not doing their jobs or better yet how about playing the last 5 mins of a game playing hide the whistle or just long enough to get a guy hammered or hurt. If they are getting paid from jump ball to buzzer he better be making those calls, who is in charge of holding these officals accountable for their calls?. The CCIW should be looking for officals who have the ba**s to make those last min calls, you don't know whose career you could be ending early by injury for not keeping control of the game.As both of you sit in the stands watching a kid drive in for the winning shot and gets fouled with no call, look at his face and then tell me "very good officals should swallow the whistle".

[iwumichigander]

Separate topic, based solely on opinion, so everyone starts from the same perspective (unlike the officiating debates that I think everyone would agree needs to die...at least until after Wed night's games)

I have been a firm believer that the CCIW is down significantly (not marginally as others have implied) this year.  As a point of reference, I don't see any team in the league this year being in the top 4 for the past several years.  I also don't buy the bottom of the league is much better than it has been.

Now the dilema for me...Wash U is again the #1 team in the nation.  The CCIW has direct and indirect reference points with Wash U.  I know that you have to factor in the Sean Wallis injury, but he is still out and they are #1.

For now I still feel the league is down overall and we do not have a team that is close to competing on the national level, but I am at least having some doubt creep into that thought process.

What are your thoughts (with no references to officating allowed)?   

I think an argument can be made when you compare the current CCIW 1-8 Win % against the 2006-07 season 1-8 Win % finish that the distribution is not that much different than last year as a conference. So - No, I don't see the league ad down this season.

Do I see a Final Four contender in the CCIW this year - No.  I don't see one or two dominate, experienced team where posters & fans "expect them to win" every time out. What I see is very unusual.

If you could plug one and only one player appropriate to an individual teams' need into each CCIW team the conference would be much tougher.  And, I just don't feel I could make that statement last year or over the past several seasons as well.

For me, it breaks down to 1) a few teams missing 1 or 2 guard lost from graduation, did not come back out this year or lost due to injury and 2) the remaining teams with a good, or exceptional, point guards (albeit lacking the experience of youth at this level) lacking the presence of a dominating center.

What I also see are very smart conference coaches, as a group, using their available resources to find a way to win or be competitive.

[Titan Q]

Separate topic, based solely on opinion, so everyone starts from the same perspective (unlike the officiating debates that I think everyone would agree needs to die...at least until after Wed night's games)

I have been a firm believer that the CCIW is down significantly (not marginally as others have implied) this year.  As a point of reference, I don't see any team in the league this year being in the top 4 for the past several years.  I also don't buy the bottom of the league is much better than it has been.

Now the dilema for me...Wash U is again the #1 team in the nation.  The CCIW has direct and indirect reference points with Wash U.  I know that you have to factor in the Sean Wallis injury, but he is still out and they are #1.

For now I still feel the league is down overall and we do not have a team that is close to competing on the national level, but I am at least having some doubt creep into that thought process.

What are your thoughts (with no references to officating allowed)?   

There wasn't a great team in the CCIW last year either.  Remember, regular season and conference tournament champion Augustana lost at home in Round 1 of the tournament to Carroll.  The top of the CCIW is down from 2005-06, when CCIW tournament #4 seed IWU went to the Final Four and finished 3rd, Augustana won the regular season title, North Central won the conference tournament, and Chris Martin's Elmhurst team was as good as the other 3.  But I don't see any difference in the top this year vs the top last year.

Your point about Wash U leads to a theory I've been developing for a couple weeks, and after this past weekend feel very strongly about -- there may not be a dominant team in NCAA Division III this year.  I've seen Wash U --on Dec. 8, IWU (without Sean Dwyer and just a different team than they are now) lost by 3 points on their floor.  Augustana defeated Wash U on a neutral floor way back on Nov. 24 (Augie had Jordan Delp though).  I do believe Wash U is the best team I've seen this year, but the margin between the Bears and Augustana, Elmhurst, Wheaton, Carthage, and Occidental is extremely thin.  Wash U's 1-2 punch of 6-6 post Troy Ruths and 6-7 wing Tyler Nading is outstanding, but so is Wheaton's with Kent Raymond and Andy Wiele...and Elmhurst's with Brent Ruch and Ryan Burks.  Augustana's defense would give Wash U fits with or without Jordan Delp, and Steve Djurickovic would go nuts on the Bears just like has against everyone in the CCIW.  What makes Wash U just a little bit better than the other good teams I've seen is fact the Bears really don't any significant holes...even without Sean Wallis, they still start 5 All-CCIW caliber players. 

So while I completely agree that there is not a team in the CCIW this year even close to the worst of the four best teams in 2005-06, as we look at the big picture right now, is the top of the CCIW really that far off from the top of the D3Hoops.com Top 25 poll??  We've talked about #1 Wash U.  #2 Amherst lost to Brandeis, which just lost at home to Wash U and Chicago (the Maroons are good, but certainly not great).  #3 Rochester just lost on the road at Emory.  #4 Hope lost on a neutral court to #21 Elmhurst (and of course beat Carthage and Wheaton). 

The CCIW may be down in our eyes, but it looks to me like the entire Top 25 is too relative to recent years.  I don't see a Jason Kalsow/Nick Bennett UW-Stevens Point team our there or a Michael Crotty Williams team.  There may be 15 teams capable of winning the national championship this year. 

[Titan Q]

http://www.mratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb&sub=III&mid=1

Massey has the CCIW as the #3 league right now...

1. UAA
2. NESCAC
3. CCIW
4. WIAC
5. ODAC

It has the CCIW teams...

#26 Augustana
#27 Elmhurst
#31 Wheaton
#45 Illinois Wesleyan
#48 Carthage
#145 North Park
#168 North Central
#183 Millikin

Massey seems to support what many of us have posted - that the league lacks a powerhouse, but has several evenly matched teams.  No CCIW team in the top 25, but 5 between 26 and 48.  Massey's "parity rating" for the CCIW (.6127) is by far the highest of the top conferences -- NESCAC (.5693), UAA (.5669), WIAC (.4780), ODAC (.4410).

Two of the CCIW's teams are rated in the top 5 nationally in strength of schedule:

1. UW-Oshkosh
2. Babson
3. Illinois Wesleyan
4. Augustana
5. UW-Platteville

[martin]

http://www.mratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb&sub=III&mid=1

Massey has the CCIW as the #3 league right now...

Q -

When you look at the Massey Ratings, you use the ratings that take into account the margin of victory rather than simply wins and losses against strength of schedule.  Do you think MOV is better than the regular ratings?  Not a criticism, just curious.

Using the regular ratings, CCIW is #2 (also UMass is #1 and Wash U is #4, with MOV, Wash is #1, UMass is #11).

Conference ranking without MOV -
Rk Conf Tms W L Rating Parity
1 University AA 8 70 19 0.462 0.4858
2 Ill & Wisc 8 61 28 0.275 0.6347
3 Old Dominion AC 10 47 21 0.231 0.5114
4 NE Smalls 10 102 28 0.225 0.5542
5 Great Plains AC 1 86 51 0.213 1.0000
6 Wisconsin IAC 9 51 28 0.201 0.5194

Ignore Great Plains - it is Nebraska Wesleyan and a bunch of NAIA teams.

The ratings without MOV are here.

[martin]

Home win = 0 points
Home loss = -1
Road win = +1
Road loss = 0

I was channel surfing over the weekend and saw a bit of the USC/Oregon game.  They had a graphic up with "Floyd Points" - a system used by former Bulls and current USC coach Tim Floyd.  And also by Q.   First question for Q - did you go fishing with Jerry Krause and Tim Floyd?  Have you trademarked your system yet?  What has a better ring - Q Points or Floyd Points?

[aceon2]

aceon2 and robberki,
                                 with both your posts "it's better the officals swallow the whistle in that situation or" the very good officals do not let their whistle determining factor in the game"wouldn't they then be the worst officals for not doing their jobs or better yet how about playing the last 5 mins of a game playing hide the whistle or just long enough to get a guy hammered or hurt. If they are getting paid from jump ball to buzzer he better be making those calls, who is in charge of holding these officals accountable for their calls?. The CCIW should be looking for officals who have the ba**s to make those last min calls, you don't know whose career you could be ending early by injury for not keeping control of the game.As both of you sit in the stands watching a kid drive in for the winning shot and gets fouled with no call, look at his face and then tell me "very good officals should swallow the whistle".

Cardinalfan----

What I stated was that the great officials are not "the determining factor in a game"  I never said that they dont blow their whistle at the end of a game if there is a blatant foul.  I said they should NEVER be the difference between one team winning and losing.   That is far different from them swallowing their whistle the last ten seconds of a game that Rob has suggested. 

[aceon2]

Separate topic, based solely on opinion, so everyone starts from the same perspective (unlike the officiating debates that I think everyone would agree needs to die...at least until after Wed night's games)

I have been a firm believer that the CCIW is down significantly (not marginally as others have implied) this year.  As a point of reference, I don't see any team in the league this year being in the top 4 for the past several years.  I also don't buy the bottom of the league is much better than it has been.

Now the dilema for me...Wash U is again the #1 team in the nation.  The CCIW has direct and indirect reference points with Wash U.  I know that you have to factor in the Sean Wallis injury, but he is still out and they are #1.

For now I still feel the league is down overall and we do not have a team that is close to competing on the national level, but I am at least having some doubt creep into that thought process.

What are your thoughts (with no references to officating allowed)?   

There wasn't a great team in the CCIW last year either.  Remember, regular season and conference tournament champion Augustana lost at home in Round 1 of the tournament to Carroll.  The top of the CCIW is down from 2005-06, when CCIW tournament #4 seed IWU went to the Final Four and finished 3rd, Augustana won the regular season title, North Central won the conference tournament, and Chris Martin's Elmhurst team was as good as the other 3.  But I don't see any difference in the top this year vs the top last year.

Q,

I agree with you that the overall top 25 might be down a little bit.  I also agree with you that 05-06 was the best year the last three.  But, I would like to take a look at last years top four vs this years top 4. 
Augie 06-07 vs Carthage.  You could say this one is a push being that Carthage has played great thus far in the conference.  But when you take Carthage's non conference and stack that up against Augies from last year, youd probably have to give a slight edge to Augie.  As much as I hate to say it too, I could see Carthage struggling down the stretch in the conference run. 
Elmhurst 06-07 vs Augie.  To me this isnt even close.  I felt that the Bluejays were the best team in the conference last year.  And I felt that they had the quality players to make a run at the final four.  This years Augie team, without Delp, is no where near as good as last years team.  Dont get me wrong they are a very solid team that plays great defense, but that is the system.  They had better players last year.
Wheaton 06-07 vs IWU.  I would still take last years Wheaton team over this years IWU team simply based on experience of guys like Standard, Fiddler, etc.  Maybe Im wrong in this one, but I feel that the Thunder from last year are better than this year.
NCC 06-07 vs Wheaton/Elmhurst.  Although they were often times sporadic.  The talent level on last years NCC team was definitely there.  I would tend to say that either Wheaton or Elmhurst would have a tough time with last years NCC team.  That being said I would say this is a push.

Ultimately, I think that the best team in the league last year wasnt Augie, but rather Elmhurst.  And I would say that either one of those teams wins this league going away.  But, then again, it is the CCIW.  Odds are neither one could win more than 10-11 games just because of how tough a league this really is...

 

[Pat Coleman]

Generally the MOV ratings are seen as the better ratings, yes.

The non-MOV ratings wouldn't exist if Massey hadn't been forced to create them to satisfy the BCS people.

[LU_nut]

For what it is worth....without all the analysis being internalized...... the CCIW is a good and balanced conference.   I am afraid that the CCIW is going to get a good solid scre* job again when it comes to tourney time.   The lack of multiple national powers is going to leave you with one tourney team.   The same thing could happen again to the WIAC.    I do not believe that given the multiple objectives that D3 represents that the selection system has to be perfect, but it should at least be directionally correct.   For Oshkosh and Elmhurst to stay home last year......and I predict.....similiar problems this year just plain means there are further improvements that need to be made.

Maybe I should let it go, but it really bugs me when conferences like the MIAC(who rarely do anything outside the state) gets two spots and the CCIW and WIAC get one each.

Lu_nut

[mwunder]

The CCIW is down nationally....look at the polls.

The team that is first in the CCIW isn't in the top 25 and has beaten 2 of the 3 teams that are ranked...having gotten spanked by the lowest ranked of the 3.

We're about 1/3 of the way through the CCIW schedule, but when was the last time, prior to this season that the first place team wasn't ranked?

[Pat Coleman]

Probably the last time the leader was 11-6 overall and lost to East-West and Southwestern.

[martin]

Probably the last time the leader was 11-6 overall and lost to East-West and Southwestern.

Mwunder really put that one in Pat's wheelhouse.  And Pat got all of it.  Reminds of a day early in the 1975 or 1976 season.  Freezing cold, Mets in town featuring Dave "dingdong" Kingman.  Probably about 5,000 peole in Wrigley Field - normal in those days.  Kingman hit the ball, everyone in the left field bleachers - just a couple of hundred - stood up, turned around and watched the ball go over Waveland Avenue and land in front of the fourth or fifth house on the east side of Kenmore.

Nice stroke Pat.

[mwunder]

Probably the last time the leader was 11-6 overall and lost to East-West and Southwestern.

That's still this season...doesn't answer the question.  Smarty!!  :-)

[aceon2]

The CCIW is down nationally....look at the polls.

The team that is first in the CCIW isn't in the top 25 and has beaten 2 of the 3 teams that are ranked...having gotten spanked by the lowest ranked of the 3.

We're about 1/3 of the way through the CCIW schedule, but when was the last time, prior to this season that the first place team wasn't ranked?

Just thought Id say that Carthage did not get spanked by Wheaton, rather they blew a 17 point lead with 10 minutes to go at Wheaton.