MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[mjfasteenwolf]

In looking back at last year's Hope team and this year's I realized that this is the second year Hope will enter the MIAA tourney at 21-3. Last year's team when on the the Elite Eight and finished the year at 26-5 (Other loss was to Calvin in the MIAA finals).

For sake of argument I wonder if people think this year's team is better or worse prepared to succeed in the MIAA and NCAA tourney. I don't know why but there is part of me that has really felt that this year's team isn't nearly is good as last year's. (Part of that is probably the fact the only game I saw in person was the Albion game at home, yuck! and the absence of Cramer). But looking at the hard numbers there really isn't any reason for me to think that way.

I also think that D3 as a whole may be more convoluted. I think there are 15-20 teams with a legitimate shot of making a Final Four and National Championship run.

I think this years Hope team is better equiped than last years. Even though we are missing a player who could comepletely dominate and take over a game (Cramer) I think as a team this year is better. More players have shown the ability to take over a game such as MVH (more this year), and the emergence of TW. I also think that DVS is a much better PG this year, and with starting four seniors and a 2 year starter, you can't argue against their experience.

[realist]

DCHN:  As a Calvin fan it is my opinion that this years Hope team is better across the board than last years team.  My opinion is based on a lot of little intangible things like this years team has handled adversity better than previous Hope teams. Not letting the other teams scoring runs get them down etc.  The entire chemistry of the team, and the team with the coaches just feels, and appears better to me than typical Hope teams have.  Last years team waited, and relied on Cramer to dominate, I just don't see this years team doing that.  If someone steps up (like MVH & T Wolfe than Riemink against Calvin) the entire teams supports the effort.  When I look at the Hope team now I just don't see any big I's.  Only lots of we or team.  Perhaps much of this is just crap, and not sure it means Hope will even go as far a last year in the tournament.  Who knows?
FWIW: I would compare the feeling this Hope team gives me to the ones I got from Calvin 05, and 00.  They struck me as "winners" at the HOF, and nothing has changed my opinion since than.

[northb]

And you can find logical arguments to support either point of view.  Although this may vary from team to team, the thinking goes that in the first two games of a season, the team that wins has done things right, and the team that loses has done things wrong.  They can change the things they did wrong, and the game should be closer.  Now the winning team can do more things right, too, but there may be a law of diminishing returns.

Your theory presupposes that basketball is simply a game of adjustments, and that's just not true. Basketball is also a game of talent and skills. If one team has a clear superiority over the other in terms of talent and skills, then the other team probably isn't going to be able to overcome that ability gap with coaching adjustments -- especially since two wins over a team establishes more clarity in terms of an ability gap than does one win. Keep in mind as well, that the winning team is just as capable of making adjustments as is the losing team.

You are correct that this presupposes that the two teams are roughly comparable.

Although I don't entirely buy into this line of thinking myself, one point of the previous post is that (at least in some sense) the losing team by definition has more things they can change or improve, and the winning team has less improvements available.  For instance, while Griffin performed poorly for Calvin, no counterpart on Hope's team had such a rough day.  Regression to the mean says that he will do better, but that can't be applied to a Hope player--they already did well.  They can do better, of course, but it becomes more difficult to add more to what Hope did, whereas Calvin could still show improvement. 

I'm still just sayin....     

[Happy Calvin Guy]

Wow, the MIAA board seems to have a lot of righteous indignation on behalf of Albion and the fact they weren't ranked until this week.

Yeah, for something that really means a whole lot of nothing.

If it really means nothing than why do so many schools, and the media cite D3 Hoops ranking in their publications.  Hope sure knows it's womens team is #1, and the men's team is #3, and yes, they mention it regularly in their articles.  Every other ranked team knows exactly where they are in these polls.  For the sponsor of a poll to give a weak, flippant answer just shows disdain for his own work product.
My entire point in doing the posting I did was to point out what could be a bias in the selection of ranked teams.  Sadly the NCAA uses some of the same methods in determining regional rankings, and those could have tremendous impact for Hope, and perhaps Albion if they fail to win the AQ.  If Pat's pollsters could miss Albion's winning streak than so could the NCAA miss any MIAA team's performance.
If the polls mean nothing than why does D3 Hoops feature a poll?  Why does the NCAA do regional rankings?

I think it is a monumental challenge to produce a D3 poll for any sport since there are very few inter-region games, little to no TV coverage, no national media coverage, etc.  Using the analytical tools they do have and conscripting the input from experts around the country, I think that d3sports does a great job producing a timely poll every week.  It's a lot of hard work, and while we may gripe if our favorite team or league isn't ranked as high as we think, I think I speak for all of us that we are grateful for the work that Pat and the crew do.  And one of the great things about sports in general is that there is always something for us to discuss and debate, including this poll.  

That said, I am also glad to know that the selection committee doesn't lean on the d3hoops poll as the primary determinant of the tourney field, and that more quantitative measures are used.  

[mjfasteenwolf]

Wow, the MIAA board seems to have a lot of righteous indignation on behalf of Albion and the fact they weren't ranked until this week.

Yeah, for something that really means a whole lot of nothing.

If it really means nothing than why do so many schools, and the media cite D3 Hoops ranking in their publications.  Hope sure knows it's womens team is #1, and the men's team is #3, and yes, they mention it regularly in their articles.  Every other ranked team knows exactly where they are in these polls.  For the sponsor of a poll to give a weak, flippant answer just shows disdain for his own work product.
My entire point in doing the posting I did was to point out what could be a bias in the selection of ranked teams.  Sadly the NCAA uses some of the same methods in determining regional rankings, and those could have tremendous impact for Hope, and perhaps Albion if they fail to win the AQ.  If Pat's pollsters could miss Albion's winning streak than so could the NCAA miss any MIAA team's performance.
If the polls mean nothing than why does D3 Hoops feature a poll?  Why does the NCAA do regional rankings?

I think it is a monumental challenge to produce a D3 poll for any sport since there are very few inter-region games, little to no TV coverage, no national media coverage, etc.  Using the analytical tools they do have and conscripting the input from experts around the country, I think that d3sports does a great job producing a timely poll every week.  It's a lot of hard work, and while we may gripe if our favorite team or league isn't ranked as high as we think, I think I speak for all of us that we are grateful for the work that Pat and the crew do.  And one of the great things about sports in general is that there is always something for us to discuss and debate, including this poll.  

That said, I am also glad to know that the selection committee doesn't lean on the d3hoops poll as the primary determinant of the tourney field, and that more quantitative measures are used.  

If I could +K for that I would, I agree that we should all be thankful for the oppurtunity we have to use boards such as this one, and to get national rankings weekly.

[northb]

Wow, the MIAA board seems to have a lot of righteous indignation on behalf of Albion and the fact they weren't ranked until this week.

Yeah, for something that really means a whole lot of nothing.

If it really means nothing than why do so many schools, and the media cite D3 Hoops ranking in their publications.  Hope sure knows it's womens team is #1, and the men's team is #3, and yes, they mention it regularly in their articles.  Every other ranked team knows exactly where they are in these polls.  For the sponsor of a poll to give a weak, flippant answer just shows disdain for his own work product.
My entire point in doing the posting I did was to point out what could be a bias in the selection of ranked teams.  Sadly the NCAA uses some of the same methods in determining regional rankings, and those could have tremendous impact for Hope, and perhaps Albion if they fail to win the AQ.  If Pat's pollsters could miss Albion's winning streak than so could the NCAA miss any MIAA team's performance.
If the polls mean nothing than why does D3 Hoops feature a poll?  Why does the NCAA do regional rankings?

I think it is a monumental challenge to produce a D3 poll for any sport since there are very few inter-region games, little to no TV coverage, no national media coverage, etc.  Using the analytical tools they do have and conscripting the input from experts around the country, I think that d3sports does a great job producing a timely poll every week.  It's a lot of hard work, and while we may gripe if our favorite team or league isn't ranked as high as we think, I think I speak for all of us that we are grateful for the work that Pat and the crew do.  And one of the great things about sports in general is that there is always something for us to discuss and debate, including this poll.  

That said, I am also glad to know that the selection committee doesn't lean on the d3hoops poll as the primary determinant of the tourney field, and that more quantitative measures are used.  

Am I correct in my assumption that the D3hoops.com poll takes the team's entire body of work into account, whereas the NCAA poll only takes into account the games it sees as "in-region"?

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Am I correct in my assumption that the D3hoops.com poll takes the team's entire body of work into account, whereas the NCAA poll only takes into account the games it sees as "in-region"?

In a word, yes, and that's the real problem with the way the NCAA does it.  They are selecting teams for a NATIONAL tournament using REGIONAL records.  Makes no sense

[northb]

Am I correct in my assumption that the D3hoops.com poll takes the team's entire body of work into account, whereas the NCAA poll only takes into account the games it sees as "in-region"?

In a word, yes, and that's the real problem with the way the NCAA does it.  They are selecting teams for a NATIONAL tournament using REGIONAL records.  Makes no sense

Is the other way (picking a National tournament based on National rankings) an option if the NCAA eventually goes to 4 divisions?  It seems like the reason for the regional rankings is to keep teams from having to spend more time and money to get to play more teams from around the country, and hence a better national profile.  Maybe that could be DIV philosphy and DIII look for more of a National presence.   

[Stinger]

Am I correct in my assumption that the D3hoops.com poll takes the team's entire body of work into account, whereas the NCAA poll only takes into account the games it sees as "in-region"?

In a word, yes, and that's the real problem with the way the NCAA does it.  They are selecting teams for a NATIONAL tournament using REGIONAL records.  Makes no sense

How else are they supposed to do it?

[sac]

New rankings 

Great Lakes Region 
1.  Hope  21-3  15-2 
2.  Capital  21-4  20-4 
3.  Wooster  22-3  15-2 
4.  Heidelberg  20-5  18-4 
5.  Penn State-Behrend  21-4  19-3 
6.  Albion  18-5  14-3

[Civic Minded]

New rankings 

Great Lakes Region 
1.  Hope  21-3  15-2 
2.  Capital  21-4  20-4 
3.  Wooster  22-3  15-2 
4.  Heidelberg  20-5  18-4 
5.  Penn State-Behrend  21-4  19-3 
6.  Albion  18-5  14-3

Whoa.    It's good to be orange and blue today.

[realist]

Am I correct in my assumption that the D3hoops.com poll takes the team's entire body of work into account, whereas the NCAA poll only takes into account the games it sees as "in-region"?

In a word, yes, and that's the real problem with the way the NCAA does it.  They are selecting teams for a NATIONAL tournament using REGIONAL records.  Makes no sense

How else are they supposed to do it?

We all agree the NCAA has to make the determination using some sort of 'preset" criteria.  My major arguement with using the "regions" as your selection criteria is it sort of assumes all regions are equal.  Looking at the "regions" as set up by the NCCA the word "gerrymandered" comes to mind.  Gerrymander" is used both as a verb meaning "to divide into political units to give special advantages to one group" as well as a noun describing the resulting electoral geography.   The GL region to me looks like it was made in a very arbitrary manner.  In fact it seems to be in direct conflict with the NCAA's own stated objectives.  How else does on explain a MI team playing a Virginia team counting as "in region" while playing a IN team over 200 miles away does not count.  The regions are arbitrary, and the 200 mile rule is arbitrary.  The one modification I would like to see is the 200 mile in region rule dropped, and that replaced by "in region" meaning the "nearest 50, or 75 D3 schools.  In stead of using state boundaries why not create 8 regions all based on clusters of schools?

[Pat Coleman]

The GL region to me looks like it was made in a very arbitrary manner.  In fact it seems to be in direct conflict with the NCAA's own stated objectives.  How else does on explain a MI team playing a Virginia team counting as "in region" while playing a IN team over 200 miles away does not count.

Any Michigan D-III team playing any Indiana D-III team is indeed an in-region game, however, regardless of mileage.

[Pat Coleman]

That said, I am also glad to know that the selection committee doesn't lean on the d3hoops poll as the primary determinant of the tourney field, and that more quantitative measures are used. 

Which is all fine and dandy, except that our poll historically is the better predictor of tournament success than the regional rankings.

[realist]

The GL region to me looks like it was made in a very arbitrary manner.  In fact it seems to be in direct conflict with the NCAA's own stated objectives.  How else does on explain a MI team playing a Virginia team counting as "in region" while playing a IN team over 200 miles away does not count.

Any Michigan D-III team playing any Indiana D-III team is indeed an in-region game, however, regardless of mileage.

My Bad.  I meant to change that to IL before I posted it.