MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[Dark Knight]

What would the spread have to be before you took Calvin? I'd say at least 8, probably 10.

The latest Massey MOV-based ratings, out today, have Hope by 5 in a game at Calvin. Hope's been playing well, but so has Calvin.  With a standard deviation of around 11 points, that gives Calvin roughly a 25% chance of winning if my memory of the normal distribution is accurate.

The Massey rankings have Albion dropping 21 spots, to #41. Calvin gains 10, to 25, passing up Albion for second place in the MIAA, and matching the d3hoops.com ranking exactly.

Tri-State joins Hope as the only two MIAA teams that have improved over last year, according to Massey, though Kalamazoo is close.

Here are the rankings:

	2005-04	Last Week	This Week
Hope	29	5	5
Calvin	2	35	25
Albion	10	20	41
Tri-State	185	133	103
Kalamazoo	157	222	170
Olivet	128	235	240
Alma	116	215	256
Adrian	61	250	270

N.B. Note that the rankings of teams 4-8 are exactly reversed from last spring.

[RastaRob]

This will sound far out, but i dont see Hope winning a close one. Honestly, I think they wil either win by 10-15 points or lose a close one by 2- 3 points. I am not sure why I think this. Just a feeling. I really do believe that Hope has the potential to blow the game wide open and just take care of the Knights. But crazier things have happened in the Hop/Calvin rivalry. I still rememember the year Calvin won the National Championship with Veenstra that Hope took Calvin to overtime at Knollcrest and actually shoudl have won the game. Calvin was clearly the superior team that year, but rivalries are rivalries. 

[sac]

Throw out the record books.  Its Hope v Calvin for the MIAA Championship.

[NW Hope Fan]

I still rememember the year Calvin won the National Championship with Veenstra that Hope took Calvin to overtime at Knollcrest and actually shoudl have won the game. Calvin was clearly the superior team that year, but rivalries are rivalries. 

If I remember correctly... While you are correct about Calvin being the better team. It was Calvin who took Hope to overtime, with the most ridiculous inbounds pass from Veenstra to Winkle, and Winkle hitting the 3 (absolutely crazy 3... once in a thousand shot) to tie it up. What a game!

[sac]

Yes thats the correct game.

Calvin came out and took a lead in OT and Hope almost pulled it out.  It was quite the battle, as so many of these games have been.  Not many lately, but there have been some head knockers in this series.

[devossed]

I was glad to see B-W move up into the Top 5 with a first place vote.  I know we argued about this early in my posting career but they are a very good team with a great post player in Tori Davis... I've seen most of the good teams in the OAC, MIAA and the NCAC and believe B-W will cause some problems at the end of the year.

I think I just heard SAC's pulse quicken a tad...

[devossed]

The official line would be Hope -6.

I bet some Hope fans would bet with Hope being favored by 10 or more though.

Calvin gets an automatic 3 points for homecourt advantage. After that, it's wide open.

[KnightSlappy]

It is always hard to tell how players will respond to this game.  Emotions are high the atmosphere is intense.  I think the young Knights will be affected by the atmosphere more than the Dutch will.  I just hope that the Knights will respond in a positive way this time.

[oldknight]

It is always hard to tell how players will respond to this game.  Emotions are high the atmosphere is intense.  I think the young Knights will be affected by the atmosphere more than the Dutch will.  I just hope that the Knights will respond in a positive way this time.

I do too KnightSlappy, and I think they will respond better this time. You have to remember that this year's version of The Rivalry includes an awful lot of Knights with no experience in the Calvin-Hope game and even those with experience are required to play different roles than they did in the past. Draayer and Meckes, in particular, are not looked at as role players in the series any more, but rather as players of whom a lot is expected. Neither played well at DeVos and prominent roles are expected of the upperclassmen if the Knights are to have a chance.

Since the Albion game which seems to be the game marking the beginning of the Knights' maturity, I've been poring over the stats to see if there is a clue to explain why Calvin's play has been better. Well, OK, I havn't been poring but I have at least looked at the stats and the one stat that jumps out is turnovers. In the first 5 league games in particular the Knights made an awful lot of turnovers averaging about 15 a game. In the Albion game the Knights only made 6 (that stat goes a long way in explaining the win at Kresge) and they have taken care of the ball much better in most games since then. One exception was the Saturday's game at Adrian when Calvin committed 18 turnovers, the most in league play this season, but they won quite handily anyway, largely on the stength of a ridiculous 15-23 from 3 point land (wouldn't that stat look nice Wednesday night).

In the game at DeVos the Knights seemed to underestimate the length and ability of Hope players to cut off passing lanes (VanderHeide in particular) and Calvin's ability to stay in the game tomorrow night depends in large part on how well they take care of the ball. This year, teams seem to be able to play with Hope for about 30 to 35 minutes of the game but the Dutch seem to put teams away in those other 5 to 10 minutes when their skill players simply take over games from their opponents. How well the Knights can weather the tough times when Hope is on a roll (as they will be at some point in the game) will determine whether Calvin can keep the game close.

As an aside, let me say that I really think that Hope has an outstanding team and has a very legitimate shot at going to Salem in March and winning that banner Calvin students have been asking about. For Calvin to win will require a supreme effort and I just h--whoops--wish that they go into the last 5 minutes with the game still close and with a chance at still winning. To end Wednesday night with Hope out of control of their own destiny would be a beautiful thing.

[flash96]

Throw out the record books.  Its Hope v Calvin for the MIAA Championship.

I like what SAC had to say.  In this rivalry records should be 0-0, meaning throw out their season records.  The team that comes best prepared and can weather the runs the opposing team has and can put together some devastating runs of their own will win Wednesday. 

I have a feeling that the team that wins tomorrow will be league champion.  If, God forbid, Calvin wins I think they will go on to beat Albion.  The Brits have not played well since they beat the Dutchmen a few weeks ago.  They also have to travel to Knollcrest, not the friendliest environment for opposing teams.  I agree with other posters, and looking at statsk, Calvin has played far better since beating Albion.

If the Dutchmen win they have a fairly easy road the remainder of the year.  The toughest game they play is Tri-State, at home. 

I'll be watching the game at home, Grand Valley covers the game I believe.

[flash96]

Sorry only the first line is a quote.  The rest is my opinion.

[realist]

"The Shot" in 00 was a classic even for a Calvin/Hope.  That shot was made by a player that was "driven" to get his team to the NCAA torney to avenge a loss to Defiance the year before.  Most fans will concede that Hope probably has the better team overal this year, however, what will determine the outcome from here on is which team wants the win more.  Calvin just needs to keep it close to have a chance at the end, while Hope needs to deliver a knockpout punch first chance they get, and not let Calvin hang around.  The longer Calvin stays in it the more the pressure shifts to Hope, and how many times has Hope been pushed to the buzzer this year?  

[realist]

It is nice to win games by a nice comfort margin, but come NCAA time you also need to know how a team is going to respond should things not go as they planned.  Rest assured it happens every year that a team with a glitzy W/L record loses one early in the tourney to some lesser team that didn't know they were supposed to be intimidated.

[AndersDY]

flash, the internet police have a warrant out for your arrest: impersonating a message board regular. Sac will you be pressing charges?

As for the game in t-minues 32:20, the scariest part of the scoresheet for me will be that 3 column for Calvin. Despite his non-game in Holland, Drayer still scares me from last year. I like our chances if he puts something like a 0-4... 1-6 in that column. If I'm seeing numbers more like 4-5.... 5-7 well I'll be scared and I'm sure Knollcrest will be loud. I still consider a Veldhouse an unknown also because apparently the real Veldhouse did not stand up against Hope but has impressed most viewers during almost every other game this year. If all the praise he has gotten this year is on target, then there's a possibility I don't even recognize him compared with the first game. I trust Hope's defenders know more than I do about how to contain him when he is having a good game, however.

My guess for a line tomorrow was going to be Hope -5, though I don't know that I'd dare bet on such a toss-out-the-records game. If anything maybe I like Calvin with a line like that, then I could possibly win a bet and still root for Hope to win by 3.  

[tniem]

It is nice to win games by a nice comfort margin, but come NCAA time you also need to know how a team is going to respond should things not go as they planned.  Rest assured it happens every year that a team with a glitzy W/L record loses one early in the tourney to some lesser team that didn't know they were supposed to be intimidated.

OK, I know it has been a while and not often.  But both games Hope played against Aquinas went to the end.  Obviously, the loss to Albion also woke the Dutchmen up.  And I assume that tomorrow's game, no matter the outcome, should be a great test and prepare Hope well for challenges down the road.  So what does that all mean? 

Does a close game really favor Calvin?  Obviously they have played in more of them.  But then again, Hope has a number of veterans that have played in tight Hope/Calvin games before.  It should be a good game tomorrow night but I am not sure I buy the "keep it close and Hope will fold" sentiment that has been said this week.  Both teams are going to want it (or at least should) and we will just have to see how it come out.