MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[David Collinge]

Pat has updated the national QoWI standings through games of yesterday.  Tonight, Carnegie Mellon was upset at Emory, but the Tartans retain their control of the UAA Pool A bid by virtue of Rochester and NYU also losing (to Case and Chicago, respectively.)  CMU is now tied with WashU. atop the UAA, and the Tartans swept the Bears so they own the tiebreaker.  NYU, Rochester, and Chicago are all a game back with two games left.  In other words, all bets are off regarding how (and if) CMU is getting to the Big Dance.  In the data that follows, I've updated CMU's QoWI.

So here's the Great Lakes teams in the top 120 of national QoWI, along with their regional record:
Legend:  Team -- Regional Record and win % (ranking w/in region for win %) -- QoWI (national/regional rank)

Wooster -- 19-1 .950 (1) -- 10.700 (11*/1)
CMU -- 13-4 .765 (9) -- 10.556 (13*/2)
Wittenberg -- 16-3 .842 (5) -- 10.368 (17/3)
Calvin -- 10-1 .909 (2) -- 10.182 (21/4)
Baldwin-Wallace -- 19-3 .864 (4) -- 10.136 (23/5)
Hope -- 14-2 .875 (3) -- 9.750 (47/6)
Albion -- 10-3 .769 (8 ) -- 9.462 (59/7)
Bethany -- 17-4 .810 (7) -- 9.333 (73/8)
Lake Erie -- 15-3 .833 (6) -- 9.278 (74/9)
Ohio Northern -- 14-5 .737 (11) -- 8.947 (102/10)
Wilmington  -- 18-6 .750 (10) -- 8.875 (106/11)
Ohio Wesleyan -- 15-6 .714 (12) -- 8.810 (108/12)

*I've approximated where Wooster and CMU would be based on CMU's loss tonight, which was only a 3-QoWI-point game for them).  The other national rankings may be slightly off, due to the other UAA results tonght, but should be close.

I think we can officially strike OWU, Wilma, and ONU from any further Pool C consideration; it's win or go home for these teams next week.  Lake Erie and Bethany are hanging on to a tattered fringe of Pool C at the very best; Bethany still looks fairly solid for a Pool B bid, and LEC can still get in by winning the AMCC tournament.  The top 7 then shape up this way, as I see it:

1. Wooster
2. Calvin (beating Albion on Weds. was a big boost to their QoWI, while Hope's QoWI actually fell in beating lowly Alma)
3. Baldwin-Wallace
4. Wittenberg (mostly because B-W beat Wooster, who beat Witt twice)
5 (tie). Hope
5 (tie). CMU (a cop-out, but CMU's QoWI is still 0.8 higher than Hope's, offsetting the poor win %)
7. Albion (and Albion's QoWI will go down this weekend, win or lose vs. lowly Olivet)

Pool C prospects: 
NCAC: Woo and Witt are both in regardless of what happens.  So if OWU wins the tournament, NCAC gets three bids. 
MIAA:  Calvin is in regardless; Hope is in if they reach the MIAA final.  Albion likely needs to win the MIAA to earn a berth.  All three suffer from playing QoWI-damaging first-round games in the MIAA tournament (against Olivet, Alma, and Adrian, all with win %s below .333 and therefore just 8-point QoWI wins).  Plus Albion has a season-ending game with Olivet that will hurt them even more, QoWI-wise.
OAC: Baldwin-Wallace is in regardless; anyone else has to win the OAC tourney to get in.
AMCC: Lake Erie's last two games are worth 11 and 15 QoWI points if they win, so a trip to the conference tournament final may put them in the running for one of the last pool C bids.

[GoKnights68]

MIAA:  Calvin is in regardless; Hope is in if they reach the MIAA final.


And what if Hope doesn't reach the finals and loses to Albion in the semis(which I don't think will happen)?  I am guessing they will still probaly get it in?

[David Collinge]

MIAA:  Calvin is in regardless; Hope is in if they reach the MIAA final.


And what if Hope doesn't reach the finals and loses to Albion in the semis(which I don't think will happen)?  I am guessing they will still probaly get it in?

If that happens, Hope is in trouble.  They still might sneak in, but their QoWI is already a concern (47th nationally), and between now and then they have games with Tri-State (doesn't count), the 7th seed (which is an 8-point win, regardless of who it is), and Albion (presumably at Calvin, so probably 7 points if they lose).  That would leave them with a QoWI of about 9.5 and a regional win % of .8333, and that looks like serious bubble territory to me.  It'd be close.

If, on the other hand, they beat Albion, then lose to Calvin, thet would leave the Dutch with a QoWI of about 9.8 and a win % of .842; not tremendously better, but probably better enough to earn them a bid.

Just my opinion, of course.

The best scenario for Hope fans (short of winning the tourney) is for Olivet to beat Albion this weekend and finish with the 7th seed (which may require Adrian to beat Alma; I don't know how your tie-breakers are shaping up.)  If that happens, Hope gains six "free" QoWI points, two for each game against Olivet (including round 1 of the tourney) because Olivet would end up with a regional record of 5-10, or .333, which is a higher win% threshold than they are in now. 

(If you're not following all of this QoWI math, check out the QoWI calculations in the FAQ section.)

[sac]

.......and just the fact that a 24-3 team could even be considered a bubble team while teams with 5 losses will get in speaks volumns about the ridiculousness of the selection process.

.......and I really enjoyed last years tournament for the first time in a long time.

[David Collinge]

In fact, that Olivet-over-Albion game could be crucial to Hope.  If it happens, and then Hope loses to Albion in the semis, their QoWI is 9.83 rather than 9.5, thanks to those 6 free "Comet" points.  That could be enough to get in, even with a loss in the MIAA semis. 

And the funny thing is, while the Olivet/Albion game can have a tremendous impact on Hope's chances, Hope's own season-ender (against Tri-State) has zero impact on Hope's chances.  Go figure.  Hope fans, you need to head down I-94 and root for the Comets this Saturday, and just blow off your own game.

It's a crazy system, I'll admit...

[KnightSlappy]

His performance against Wheaton in the CCIW/MIAA Challenge last year in Wheaton, in which he knocked down all six of his attempts from downtown, was one of the most amazing shooting performances I've ever seen. He was hitting fallaway circus shots in that game in which he fell backwards into the bench. At least two of the treys he knocked down in that game were 25-footers.

Must be something about thunderstorms. He hit all six attempts against Wheaton this year, too. Two of them were banked and one was the front end of a four-point play in which he ended up on the bench.

I would actually like to take partial credit for Draayer's performance against Wheaton this year.  After "only" going 3-6 against Carthage I, along with two other students, joked with Andy's brother that he needed to step up his performance.   

[sac]

Dave we can do better.......since Hope plays the night capper in the 4 game marathon at DeVos. We could easily head down I94 and root on the Britons.

......but the better idea would be to head over to Calvin and put on a little black with our orange and root on the Hornets.  We'd make it back in plenty of time to grab a hot dog (with plenty of HKM) and  warm up enough to see the Dutchmen.


Well if I learned anything last night its that the A-Team is on at 3 am on TVLand.  What did we ever see in that show? 

The First Law of Thermodynamics states that energy can neither be created nor destroyed... unless it meets Chuck Norris.

Chuck Norris doesn't go on the internet, he has every internet site stored in his memory. He refreshes webpages by blinking.

Scientifically speaking, it is impossible to charge Chuck Norris with "obstruction of justice." This is because even Chuck Norris cannot be in two places at the same time.


Chuck Norris can win a game of Trivial Pursuit with one roll of the dice, and without answering a single question... just a nod of the head, and a stroke of the beard.


When you say "no one's perfect", Chuck Norris takes this as a personal insult.

......I'm sleeping with one eye open tonight.

[David Collinge]

Dave we can do better.......since Hope plays the night capper in the 4 game marathon at DeVos. We could easily head down I94 and root on the Britons.

Not the Britons, its the Comets you need to root for.  It's easy to get confused.   

[sac]

Does it really matter DC.........I mean if Hope face Olivet in the tournament a win over the Comets would put them below the  .333 threshold.

[David Collinge]

Does it really matter DC.........I mean if Hope face Olivet in the tournament a win over the Comets would put them below the  .333 threshold.

No, it wouldn't, and that's the key.  Right now they are 4-9 in the region.  If they beat Albion, then lose to Hope, they're 5-10, .333.  Of course the same is true if they beat Albion and lose to anyone, but beating Olivet is 2 QoWI points better than beating either Alma or Adrian.  So you want Olivet in round 1, and you want them to be 5-9 at the time, and that means they have to beat Albion later today.

[Pat Coleman]

.......and just the fact that a 24-3 team could even be considered a bubble team while teams with 5 losses will get in speaks volumns about the ridiculousness of the selection process.

15-3 really, in-region.

[David Collinge]

Last point, and I promise to leave this alone.

Two scenarios:
Scenario 1: Olivet beats Albion, Hope beats Olivet, Albion beats Hope in MIAA semifinals
Scenario 2: Albion beats Olivet, Hope beats Olivet, Hope beats Albion in MIAA semifinals, Calvin beats Hope in MIAA finals.

Although Scenario 2 has one more win for Hope, including one over a top-shelf team, and is better by any rational definition of "better," Scenario 1 actually provides a higher QoWI score for Hope!  In other words, Albion's result against Olivet is more important to Hope's QoWI than Hope's own results against Tri-State and Albion combined.

Here's the math:
Scenario 1: Olivet beats Albion (+4 for Hope), Hope beats Olivet (+10), Albion beats Hope in MIAA semifinals (+7) = 21 pts/2 games, or 10.5 points
Scenario 2: Albion beats Olivet (0 for Hope), Hope beats Olivet (+8), Hope beats Albion in MIAA semifinals (+15), Calvin beats Hope in MIAA finals (+7) = 30 pts/3 games, or 10.0 points.

Crazy.

[Dark Knight]

Wow, amazing analysis, DC!  Yes, those thresholds in the QoWI system do make for strange effects, but I hadn't seen them identified as clearly before.  Don't you get the feeling that the QoWI system is a kind of Massey Lite, with all the faults of a computer rating system but less accuracy?

sac, don't forget that two of Calvin's losses are to D-II teams, and it seems appropriate that they not be counted. Calvin does benefit from scheduling non-D-III teams for the first part of the year, when the knights were still young.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

It's great to have all of that - thanks DC, although it's really a moot point.  Hope will not lose to another MIAA team this year.

[goodknight]

It's great to have all of that - thanks DC, although it's really a moot point.  Hope will not lose to another MIAA team this year.

Frequently, one sees this rendered as a "mute" point, although clearly there are no mute points on this board this week.