MBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Looking forward to the trip to Carthage (OK maybe not the part of getting around the 2nd city) and a weekend of basketball.  In my mind I was lamenting the fact that this year is Hope's turn to have the short turnaround - the late game Friday night, and the early game Saturday afternoon (15 hours or so between games).

So I thought I would look at the history of the CCIW/MIAA Challenge, and see how much of a disadvantage the short turnaround is (not a ton of data to analyze, but what the heck).  Turns out that the visiting conference is more likely to win on the short turnaround.

Teams with a short turnaround are actually 3-3 in their second game (2 single point wins, and an OT win).  Teams with the longer time between games are 1-5.

Things that make you go hmmm...

[almcguirejr]

Surely, this must be a wry tribute to Dr. Rumack, Leslie Nielsen's character in Airplane?
Jest in peace, Leslie.

It is a wry tribute and  don't call me Shirley.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A5t5_O8hdA&feature=related

[Dark Knight]

Carthage (3-2) is ranked 18th in the latest poll while Wheaton (3-1) is ranked 21st.  Hope received 1 vote.

I'm not trying to say that any MIAA team is worthy of the top 25, but Hope probably would have been my third guess if you told me one received a vote.

CCIW teams in the top 33, according to Massey: IL Wesleyan, Augie, Carthage, Wheaton
Average Massey power: 10.7
Total top-25 poll votes: 1158

MIAA teams in the top 27, according to Massey: Calvin, Hope
Average Massey power: 9.8
Total top-25 poll vote points: 1

[ziggy]

Looking forward to the trip to Carthage (OK maybe not the part of getting around the 2nd city) and a weekend of basketball.  In my mind I was lamenting the fact that this year is Hope's turn to have the short turnaround - the late game Friday night, and the early game Saturday afternoon (15 hours or so between games).

So I thought I would look at the history of the CCIW/MIAA Challenge, and see how much of a disadvantage the short turnaround is (not a ton of data to analyze, but what the heck).  Turns out that the visiting conference is more likely to win on the short turnaround.

Teams with a short turnaround are actually 3-3 in their second game (2 single point wins, and an OT win).  Teams with the longer time between games are 1-5.

Things that make you go hmmm...

I'm getting confused, is it a challenge or a classic? I always thought that the weekend was referred to as the MIAA-CCIW Challenge but now I'm not sure. Participating team's schedule pages call it a classic, MIAA page calls is a challenge.

Anywho, Doug Wentworth was quite adamant on the radio broadcast of the GRSHOF tournament that the event would continue on next year without the tournament format so as to avoid conference foes facing each other so early in the season. Bad news for those that want to see the entire event fold but at least it should open up a schedule date usually taken up by a one-off game with Aquinas.

[KnightSlappy]

Looking forward to the trip to Carthage (OK maybe not the part of getting around the 2nd city) and a weekend of basketball.  In my mind I was lamenting the fact that this year is Hope's turn to have the short turnaround - the late game Friday night, and the early game Saturday afternoon (15 hours or so between games).

So I thought I would look at the history of the CCIW/MIAA Challenge, and see how much of a disadvantage the short turnaround is (not a ton of data to analyze, but what the heck).  Turns out that the visiting conference is more likely to win on the short turnaround.

Teams with a short turnaround are actually 3-3 in their second game (2 single point wins, and an OT win).  Teams with the longer time between games are 1-5.

Things that make you go hmmm...

Although, unless I'm mistaken, the long turnaround is always a true road game, while the short is a "neutral" site game.

[KnightSlappy]

Carthage (3-2) is ranked 18th in the latest poll while Wheaton (3-1) is ranked 21st.  Hope received 1 vote.

I'm not trying to say that any MIAA team is worthy of the top 25, but Hope probably would have been my third guess if you told me one received a vote.

CCIW teams in the top 33, according to Massey: IL Wesleyan, Augie, Carthage, Wheaton
Average Massey power: 10.7
Total top-25 poll votes: 1158

MIAA teams in the top 27, according to Massey: Calvin, Hope
Average Massey power: 9.8
Total top-25 poll vote points: 1

Carthage still getting some massive preseason love in the polls. They lose both games against tough teams and stay in the top 20. Color me underwhelmed by the Red Men so far.

[KnightSlappy]

Carthage
result -- opponent -- rank
W -- Calumet St. Joseph -- 1498
W -- Bethany Lutheran -- 1212
W -- Pacific -- 1223
L -- John Carroll -- 606
L -- Whitworth -- 257

Calvin
result -- opponent -- rank
W -- Ohio Wesleyan -- 1186
W -- Aquinas -- 904
W -- Cornerstone -- 309
L -- Grace -- 554
L -- Davenport -- 361

According to Massey, none of Carthage's wins are against teams better than even OWU, and Calvin's losses rank as not really any worse than Carthage's. I'm not sure if Grace is actually better than John Carroll though.

Obviously it's early, and the top 25 isn't a "resume poll" at this point, but a top 20 team needs to start winning games. Like now. Actually, wait until after the weekend. Except Hope, you can beat them if you wish.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Looking forward to the trip to Carthage (OK maybe not the part of getting around the 2nd city) and a weekend of basketball.  In my mind I was lamenting the fact that this year is Hope's turn to have the short turnaround - the late game Friday night, and the early game Saturday afternoon (15 hours or so between games).

So I thought I would look at the history of the CCIW/MIAA Challenge, and see how much of a disadvantage the short turnaround is (not a ton of data to analyze, but what the heck).  Turns out that the visiting conference is more likely to win on the short turnaround.

Teams with a short turnaround are actually 3-3 in their second game (2 single point wins, and an OT win).  Teams with the longer time between games are 1-5.

Things that make you go hmmm...

Although, unless I'm mistaken, the long turnaround is always a true road game, while the short is a "neutral" site game.

That's true, but it's also true that the long turnaround teams are 0-6 in their neutral court games on Friday

[KnightSlappy]

Looking forward to the trip to Carthage (OK maybe not the part of getting around the 2nd city) and a weekend of basketball.  In my mind I was lamenting the fact that this year is Hope's turn to have the short turnaround - the late game Friday night, and the early game Saturday afternoon (15 hours or so between games).

So I thought I would look at the history of the CCIW/MIAA Challenge, and see how much of a disadvantage the short turnaround is (not a ton of data to analyze, but what the heck).  Turns out that the visiting conference is more likely to win on the short turnaround.

Teams with a short turnaround are actually 3-3 in their second game (2 single point wins, and an OT win).  Teams with the longer time between games are 1-5.

Things that make you go hmmm...

Although, unless I'm mistaken, the long turnaround is always a true road game, while the short is a "neutral" site game.

That's true, but it's also true that the long turnaround teams are 0-6 in their neutral court games on Friday

What are short turnaround teams in their road games from Friday?

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Carthage
result -- opponent -- rank
W -- Calumet St. Joseph -- 1498
W -- Bethany Lutheran -- 1212
W -- Pacific -- 1223
L -- John Carroll -- 606
L -- Whitworth -- 257

Calvin
result -- opponent -- rank
W -- Ohio Wesleyan -- 1186
W -- Aquinas -- 904
W -- Cornerstone -- 309
L -- Grace -- 554
L -- Davenport -- 361

According to Massey, none of Carthage's wins are against teams better than even OWU, and Calvin's losses rank as not really any worse than Carthage's. I'm not sure if Grace is actually better than John Carroll though.

Obviously it's early, and the top 25 isn't a "resume poll" at this point, but a top 20 team needs to start winning games. Like now. Actually, wait until after the weekend. Except Hope, you can beat them if you wish.

I seriously doubt whether any of the voters in the poll are looking at the Massey rankings of the teams (especially this early in the season).  I'll quite sure, however, they are looking at the previous poll as well as the other teams they will vote for in this poll- and looking there you see Carthage losing to two other ranked teams (currently 16th and 10th).

[Flying Dutch Fan]

What are short turnaround teams in their road games from Friday?

Also 0-6

[KnightSlappy]

What are short turnaround teams in their road games from Friday?

Also 0-6

So no "away conference" team has ever won a Friday MIAA-CCIW game? Wow.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

What are short turnaround teams in their road games from Friday?

Also 0-6

So no "away conference" team has ever won a Friday MIAA-CCIW game? Wow.

Exactly!  Maybe the travel??  Maybe the 2nd game teams play a bit better because they have adjusted to the setting?

[KnightSlappy]

MIAA-CCIW Classenge history: http://athletics.carthage.edu/custompages/Men's%20Basketball/cciwmiaa.htm

Calvin vs. Carthage
4-2 (3-0 in MI, 1-2 in IW)

Calvin vs. Wheaton
1-5 (1-2 in MI, 0-3 in IW)

Hope vs. Carthage
2-4 (2-1 in MI, 0-3 in IW)

Hope vs. Wheaton
3-3 (3-0 in MI, 0-3 in IW)

Hard to believe that the MIAA has only won once in 12 games in Illinois-Wisconsin.

[Dark Knight]

I seriously doubt whether any of the voters in the poll are looking at the Massey rankings of the teams (especially this early in the season).  I'll quite sure, however, they are looking at the previous poll as well as the other teams they will vote for in this poll- and looking there you see Carthage losing to two other ranked teams (currently 16th and 10th).

I agree that the voters should base their votes on game results, not the computer ratings. Not to mention that the Massey rating wasn't out yet when the voters had submitted their votes.

However, the Massey ratings do provide a nice sanity check on the polls. (What does that make this poll -- insane?)

It might also be worth pointing out that in all my past tests, Massey ratings have proved a better predictor of future performance than the d3hoops.com poll.